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When Watts' body completes its delayed puberty it'll be a more accurate match.
Watts is going to be very good, same with Hurley but I'd take Hurley right now.
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Hurley.
Shown more down back, shown more up forward. Also we've seen Hurley step up in a big match (virtual final) and kick some crucial goals (round 22 2009). All that from a young player points to a promising career.
Watts on the other hand has been dissapointing for a number 1 pick thus far. Yes KPP take longer, yes he's underdeveloped physically, yes he was a school boy and yes he's had a couple of slight injury setbacks.
However, we've seen quite a few examples of big guys who are not fully developed still make an impact in their early games: Hurley, Kruezer, the Riewoldts, Naitanui, Franklin, even Astbury this year. etc.
Despite his position, Watts has shown the least of all the number 1 draft picks of the last decade in his first 20 games. The good news is, he has plenty of time, and can't be too harshly judged until a couple of preseasons and 50 odd games. Doesn't need to be consistantly great, but he'd want to start having the odd really impressive game. He's only had one so far, against the lions. Otherwise the pressure will start to mount.
However, we've seen quite a few examples of big guys who are not fully developed still make an impact in their early games: Hurley, Kruezer, the Riewoldts, Naitanui, Franklin, even Astbury this year. etc.
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Watts has had some of the best stats of all those players in their first 18 games.
At the same age their averages were:
Franklin - 11.1 dispoals, 3.8 marks, 1.8 tackles and 2.2 goals
Hurley - 14.4 disposals, 6.2 marks, 1.5 tackles and 1.0 goals
Watts- 12.6 disposals, 4.7 marks, 1.0 tackles and 0.7 goals.
Kreuzer - 9.8 disposals, 3.0 marks, 2.2 tackles and 0.6 goals (9.2 HOs)
Reiwoldt - 9.5 dispoals, 4.3 marks, 0.5 tackles and 0.3 goals.
Naitianui - 9.8 dispoals, 1.0 marks, 3.9 tackles and 0.3 goals (15.2 HOs)
Astbury - 11.4 dispoals, 3.4 marks, 1.7 tackles and 0.2 goals
Watts has had some of the best stats of all those players in their first 18 games.
At the same age their averages were:
Franklin - 11.1 dispoals, 3.8 marks, 1.8 tackles and 2.2 goals
Hurley - 14.4 disposals, 6.2 marks, 1.5 tackles and 1.0 goals
Watts- 12.6 disposals, 4.7 marks, 1.0 tackles and 0.7 goals.
Kreuzer - 9.8 disposals, 3.0 marks, 2.2 tackles and 0.6 goals (9.2 HOs)
Reiwoldt - 9.5 dispoals, 4.3 marks, 0.5 tackles and 0.3 goals.
Naitianui - 9.8 dispoals, 1.0 marks, 3.9 tackles and 0.3 goals (15.2 HOs)
Astbury - 11.4 dispoals, 3.4 marks, 1.7 tackles and 0.2 goals
So he compares fairly well at the same age. Franklin and Hurley tie for first IMO. Watts third. Naita and Kruze probably shouldn't be included in the list as they're not as comparable but as you mentioned them I've included them.
I have selected Watts as Melbourne are crying out for a pure forward, and I see Hurley as being an elite CHB one day and we already have Frawley. Watts will prove his critics wrong. Having said that I'd be happy with either.
This is great considering Hurley has played half in games in defence, on players like Reiwoldt, Kozi, Tredrea, Brown ect.
Kreuzer - 9.8 disposals, 3.0 marks, 2.2 tackles and 0.6 goals (9.2 HOs)
Naitianui - 9.8 dispoals, 1.0 marks, 3.9 tackles and 0.3 goals (15.2 HOs)
And people call Naitanui overrated
I'd take Hurley over Watts by the way