Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[FB19]

Ah right id be interested if AFL would ok something like that

Lions probably be interested in 41 and 49 for 34 and 73, but maybe they feel they need even more points than that or think they can do better than just a 150 odd point increase

We wouldn’t ask for 34 as 35 and 36 effectively come in given 34 gets eaten up so let them use their highest pick of the 3 for max points. I outlined the trading I think hawks should do somewhere on Bigfooty earlier today essentially get lions 35,36 for all our later picks and dons 22 and f3 for dogs f2 which we have and 36 which we got in the first grade from the lions. Actually here it is
Trade 1 lions blues hawks
Hawks give blues 48 for 49 (and 122 as previously established for fairness)
Hawks give lions 41,49,50,52 for 35,36 and maybe 73 if we need a late pick becomes around 68
Trade 2 likely live trade with dons
Hawks give f2 dogs and 36 (65 if needed) for 22 and f3

2022 - 6,22,24,35,73(68). Essentially convert 41 to 22 and 48 to 35 for losing 50,52,65.
2023 - shift dogs f2 to dons f3 on this year 30 to 42 but keeping our f1 and 2

 

[Keystone agony]

We wouldn’t ask for 34 as 35 and 36 effectively come in given 34 gets eaten up so let them use their highest pick of the 3 for max points. I outlined the trading I think hawks should do somewhere on Bigfooty earlier today essentially get lions 35,36 for all our later picks and dons 22 and f3 for dogs f2 which we have and 36 which we got in the first grade from the lions. Actually here it is
Trade 1 lions blues hawks
Hawks give blues 48 for 49 (and 122 as previously established for fairness)
Hawks give lions 41,49,50,52 for 35,36 and maybe 73 if we need a late pick becomes around 68
Trade 2 likely live trade with dons
Hawks give f2 dogs and 36 (65 if needed) for 22 and f3

2022 - 6,22,24,35,73(68). Essentially convert 41 to 22 and 48 to 35 for losing 50,52,65.
2023 - shift dogs f2 to dons f3 on this year 30 to 42 but keeping our f1 and 2

Issue; Really its 41,49,50 and 52 for 35,36,55 and 73, as i believe it, Brisbane dont have the list spots to be able to use all those picks

And that would be a point deficit for them doing that trade

 

[FB19]

Issue; Really its 41,49,50 and 52 for 35,36,55 and 73, as i believe it, Brisbane dont have the list spots to be able to use all those picks

And that would be a point deficit for them doing that trade

Where did 55 come from? It’s 35,36 and maybe 73 as per my post.
That’s not how it works you can’t have more picks than open list spots at the start of the draft but once the draft starts that rule is chucked out. As soon as GWS are on the clock lions can trade in 10 picks if they want. So the afl institute a rule to stop clubs stockpiling late picks for bids, then allow it throug live trading. They are an absolute farce of an organisation they can’t even spell govern let alone employ governance, but they are running a game that runs itself with tribal customers, so there are no consequences.

 

[hawkinoz]

Where did 55 come from? It’s 35,36 and maybe 73 as per my post.
That’s not how it works you can’t have more picks than open list spots at the start of the draft but once the draft starts that rule is chucked out. As soon as GWS are on the clock lions can trade in 10 picks if they want. So the afl institute a rule to stop clubs stockpiling late picks for bids, then allow it throug live trading. They are an absolute farce of an organisation they can’t even spell govern let alone employ governance, but they are running a game that runs itself with tribal customers, so there are no consequences.

I am happy with 36 & 38 as well but given freo now have 43 & 44( 740 pts), there is risk they bundle that up to get 35 +55 (729pts), 10+ more points for lions so not so great. All this has to be done before pick 1 or 2.
The 2nd of 30's pick is the one we can offload to Dons for pick 22 but that comes after Davey trade as they may want to trade back in( maybe they give back F2(WB) or trade their F3). So not fussed if it is 36 or 38 or they may persuade someone else.

For Davey trade, Don's need a late pick as well for some 100+ points if he gets picked before 20. So it is not just F2(WB) we are giving for 22. Hawks need to have such a late pick, hence my preference to break 48 by trading with GWS for 57 & 61.

Hawks trade 48 <--> 57 & 61(GWS)
Hawks trade 50,52,57 <--> 35 or 36, 73( Lions)
Hawks trade 41+61 <--> 36 or 38( Lions)

gives hawks 6,24,35,36,65,73 ( 65 & 73 would have moved 5-6 spots up by the time of Davey trade)

 

[FB19]

I am happy with 36 & 38 as well but given freo now have 43 & 44( 740 pts), there is risk they bundle that up to get 35 +55 (729pts), 10+ more points for lions so not so great. All this has to be done before pick 1 or 2.
The 2nd of 30's pick is the one we can offload to Dons for pick 22 but that comes after Davey trade as they may want to trade back in( maybe they give back F2(WB) or trade their F3). So not fussed if it is 36 or 38 or they may persuade someone else.

For Davey trade, Don's need a late pick as well for some 100+ points if he gets picked before 20. So it is not just F2(WB) we are giving for 22. Hawks need to have such a late pick, hence my preference to break 48 by trading with GWS for 57 & 61.

Hawks trade 48 <--> 57 & 61(GWS)
Hawks trade 50,52,57 <--> 35 or 36, 73( Lions)
Hawks trade 41+61 <--> 36 or 38( Lions)

gives hawks 6,24,35,36,65,73 ( 65 & 73 would have moved 5-6 spots up by the time of Davey trade)

Im Confused where’s 22 ending up in all of this?

 

[eth-dog]

There are literally 3 options for pick 22.

1. No Davey bid comes before it and we take the pick.
2. We trade ahead of a Davey bid alongside our F2 with maybe a late pick coming back
3. A Davey bid comes in, a club trades their F2 and a pick in the 40's/50's for it.

One of those three will happen.

 

[hawkinoz]

There are literally 3 options for pick 22.

1. No Davey bid comes before it and we take the pick.
2. We trade ahead of a Davey bid alongside our F2 with maybe a late pick coming back
3. A Davey bid comes in, a club trades their F2 and a pick in the 40's/50's for it.

One of those three will happen.

Hawks have to be prepared for option 3, if it happens, it happens.

prior to that hawks will have options to explore for GWS 19 & 31, we may well trade our F2 + something for those. Then the 2 30's pick we get from lions may be surplus to needs and get traded out for other clubs F2 or F3. That may reduce our options when Davey trade pick 22 comes up.

 

[JasRulz63]

I am surprised that this trade has still not gone through.

Trading 50.52 & 65(609pts) for 36 & 73(511pts) is no brainer. Why is that still not done.

Brisbane can't do a trade like that until the draft starts due to list spots. We'll probably see a few moves made by Brisbane before pick 1, similar to North/Geelong/WB last year.

 

[hawkinoz]

Brisbane can't do a trade like that until the draft starts due to list spots. We'll probably see a few moves made by Brisbane before pick 1, similar to North/Geelong/WB last year.

Indeed, so hope for this on draft night.

you guys delisted 9
Tom Berry (trd)
Nakia Cockatoo* (del)
Mitchell Cox (del)
Ryan Lester* (del)
Connor McFadyen (del)
Dan McStay (FA)
Mitch Robinson (ret)
Ely Smith (del)
Deividas Uosis (del)

and got Dunkley & Gunners, must have 7 list spots?
You have 34, 35, 36, 38, 55, 73 as picks

 

[JasRulz63]

Indeed, so hope for this on draft night.

you guys delisted 9
Tom Berry (trd)
Nakia Cockatoo* (del)
Mitchell Cox (del)
Ryan Lester* (del)
Connor McFadyen (del)
Dan McStay (FA)
Mitch Robinson (ret)
Ely Smith (del)
Deividas Uosis (del)

and got Dunkley & Gunners, must have 7 list spots?
You have 34, 35, 36, 38, 55, 73 as picks

5 primary list spots. 34, 35, 36, 38 and 55 as live picks.

 

[hawkinoz]

5 primary list spots. 34, 35, 36, 38 and 55 as live picks.

Seems like you have 7 list spots and have promised to rookie Lester and Cockatoo. so can fill up another 5 list spots but you still have 7 spots and are allowed 7 picks.

Same at Hawthorn, we have 7 list spots and play to rookie Seamus Mitchell, so can pick only max 6. 1-2 of that can end up as rookies.
We delisted Seamus just so we can take 7 picks to draft and trade some of them to you guys.

 

[FB19]

There are literally 3 options for pick 22.

1. No Davey bid comes before it and we take the pick.
2. We trade ahead of a Davey bid alongside our F2 with maybe a late pick coming back
3. A Davey bid comes in, a club trades their F2 and a pick in the 40's/50's for it.

One of those three will happen.

Option 3 the trade I’m proposing is we give f2 dogs plus 36 and 65 for 22 and f3. I think given points and understanding both teams objectives both sides win

 

[JasRulz63]

Seems like you have 7 list spots and have promised to rookie Lester and Cockatoo. so can fill up another 5 list spots but you still have 7 spots and are allowed 7 picks.

Same at Hawthorn, we have 7 list spots and play to rookie Seamus Mitchell, so can pick only max 6. 1-2 of that can end up as rookies.
We delisted Seamus just so we can take 7 picks to draft and trade some of them to you guys.

Nope.

Two of those delistings were rookies - Cox was a category A rookie and Uosis a category B rookie. So 7 primary listed players were delisted. This leaves 7 primary list spots.

Dunkley and Gunston coming in makes it 5 primary list spots free and therefore 5 draft picks.

See this thread I keep updated on our board:

List Mgmt. - List changes, contract status and key dates - 2022

Previous editions: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Departures Senior List (7 out) Mitch Robinson (retired) Ely Smith (delisted) Daniel McStay (free agent to Collingwood) Thomas Berry (traded to Gold Coast) Connor McFadyen (delisted) Nakia Cockatoo (delisted; to be re-rookied) Ryan...

www.bigfooty.com

If you include the re-drafting of Lester and Cockatoo to the rookie list, and the compulsory elevation of Madden, we only have 3 spots free across primary and category A lists. This will end up being Ashcroft, Fletcher and then an open spot for another drafted/McKenna etc.

 

[FB19]

Nope.

Two of those delistings were rookies - Cox was a category A rookie and Uosis a category B rookie. So 7 primary listed players were delisted. This leaves 7 primary list spots.

Dunkley and Gunston coming in makes it 5 primary list spots free and therefore 5 draft picks.

See this thread I keep updated on our board:

List Mgmt. - List changes, contract status and key dates - 2022

Previous editions: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Departures Senior List (7 out) Mitch Robinson (retired) Ely Smith (delisted) Daniel McStay (free agent to Collingwood) Thomas Berry (traded to Gold Coast) Connor McFadyen (delisted) Nakia Cockatoo (delisted; to be re-rookied) Ryan...

www.bigfooty.com

So you have 6 picks incl 73 so I presume that means you can only use the first 5 to match a bid on Ashcroft as you only have 5 primary list spots? Bad example as it’s worth 9 points but if your 6th pick was pick 56 it makes a difference

 

[eth-dog]

Option 3 the trade I’m proposing is we give f2 dogs plus 36 and 65 for 22 and f3. I think given points and understanding both teams objectives both sides win

Nah. Dogs F2 and 48 for 22 is fine.

 

[JasRulz63]

Nope.

So you have 6 picks incl 73 so I presume that means you can only use the first 5 to match a bid on Ashcroft as you only have 5 primary list spots? Bad example as it’s worth 9 points but if your 6th pick was pick 56 it makes a difference

Correct, you only take in as many draft picks as list spots. It's why we traded away pick 56 for a future fourth (Freo's).

 

[FB19]

Hawks have to be prepared for option 3, if it happens, it happens.

prior to that hawks will have options to explore for GWS 19 & 31, we may well trade our F2 + something for those. Then the 2 30's pick we get from lions may be surplus to needs and get traded out for other clubs F2 or F3. That may reduce our options when Davey trade pick 22 comes up.

The key is what gets the gws deal done they have no picks between 12-41 next year so f2 a need but 19 highly valued and 31 decent points. Also they wouldn’t trade 19 until end of round one after the bidding war so not sure this is the best option for us.
We would need to convert some of this years points into an f2 and offer that and dogs f2 I would think. Dees have 2 f2 picks maybe our 24 this year could secure one, convert that with dogs f2 and something late to giants for rowston bid like 52. I don’t like that compared to other options.

 

[FB19]

Correct, you only take in as many draft picks as list spots. It's why we traded away pick 56 for a future fourth (Freo's).

Still confusing as seems 73 becomes a live pick post Ashcroft. if bid on at 2 you use up 34.35.36,38 get 72 with residual. If fletcher bid at 13 that’s about 970 points needed with 55,72,73 leaving a 735 point deficit. That’s equivalent to about pick 26. Your first pick is 37 then 49 do those get consumed leaving you to start with your next pick 52? Apologies new to this and trying to understand afl rules seemingly requires a greater education than I have been in receipt of

 

[hawkinoz]

The key is what gets the gws deal done they have no picks between 12-41 next year so f2 a need but 19 highly valued and 31 decent points. Also they wouldn’t trade 19 until end of round one after the bidding war so not sure this is the best option for us.
We would need to convert some of this years points into an f2 and offer that and dogs f2 I would think. Dees have 2 f2 picks maybe our 24 this year could secure one, convert that with dogs f2 and something late to giants for rowston bid like 52. I don’t like that compared to other options.

I am not keen to get F2's as at current projection Will Mccabe is likely to be bid around pick 20, so I am happy to give up our F2&F3 to get 19+31+F4(GWS).

Ideally we should try and get F1s of one of the top teams.

 

[FB19]

I am not keen to get F2's as at current projection Will Mccabe is likely to be bid around pick 20, so I am happy to give up our F2&F3 to get 19+31+F4(GWS).

Ideally we should try and get F1s of one of the top teams.

Or Gold Coast figure they might give us their f1 for a bag of peanuts…
No problem accumulating f2 picks they will be highly valued and we have a year to maximise returns in trading them out. But if we can get similar to your proposal that’s pretty good

 

[hawkinoz]

Correct, you only take in as many draft picks as list spots. It's why we traded away pick 56 for a future fourth (Freo's).

but pissed 73 is going to waste, Hawks could have had it if we found a way to consolidate our picks

 

[Keystone agony]

Still confusing as seems 73 becomes a live pick post Ashcroft. if bid on at 2 you use up 34.35.36,38 get 72 with residual. If fletcher bid at 13 that’s about 970 points needed with 55,72,73 leaving a 735 point deficit. That’s equivalent to about pick 26. Your first pick is 37 then 49 do those get consumed leaving you to start with your next pick 52? Apologies new to this and trying to understand afl rules seemingly requires a greater education than I have been in receipt of

If Ashcroft bid at 2 = 2014 points required

Picks 34,35,36 go as they equate 1566 points (Still 448 short)

Pick 38 (Worth 465 points). Is 17 points over the remainder so is put back into the draft at pick 73

Lions would therefore have picks 52 (As 55 moves in 3 places) and 73 going into the Fletcher bid


*Assuming they do absolutely nothing * Just to show example of how i understand it to work

 

[hawkinoz]

Still confusing as seems 73 becomes a live pick post Ashcroft. if bid on at 2 you use up 34.35.36,38 get 72 with residual. If fletcher bid at 13 that’s about 970 points needed with 55,72,73 leaving a 735 point deficit. That’s equivalent to about pick 26. Your first pick is 37 then 49 do those get consumed leaving you to start with your next pick 52? Apologies new to this and trying to understand afl rules seemingly requires a greater education than I have been in receipt of

In your example the 735 points deficit gets carried over to same round as the bid match was made( 1st round in this case). They have F2 which will get eaten up fully. The more points they can reduce, the F2 will get adjusted to pick in 30's or 40's.

Similarly for Dons, if Davey gets bid in 1st round, they don't have enough points to cover it if they trade 22 out( unless they bring in picks), it should affect their 1st round pick for next yr. If he gets bid in 2nd round( pick 20+) the deficit affects their 2nd round pick & 1st round remains untouched. Hence the need for them to get a late pick back.

 

[eth-dog]

In your example the 735 points deficit gets carried over to same round as the bid match was made( 1st round in this case). They have F2 which will get eaten up fully. The more points they can reduce, the F2 will get adjusted to pick in 30's or 40's.

Similarly for Dons, if Davey gets bid in 1st round, they don't have enough points to cover it if they trade 22 out( unless they bring in picks), it should affect their 1st round pick for next yr. If he gets bid in 2nd round( pick 20+) the deficit affects their 2nd round pick & 1st round remains untouched.

If a bid comes in before 22 we trade it for an F2 and a pick in the 40's. We'll be fine dude. The fact you don't realise that both clubs will have planned for every eventuality already says everything

Brisbane will trade one of their seconds for more points as soon as the draft starts. And then when Fletcher gets bid on they'll trade an F3 somewhere for more points.

 

[hawkinoz]

If a bid comes in before 22 we trade it for an F2 and a pick in the 40's. We'll be fine dude. The fact you don't realise that both clubs will have planned for every eventuality already says everything

Brisbane will trade one of their seconds for more points as soon as the draft starts. And then when Fletcher gets bid on they'll trade an F3 somewhere for more points.

Indeed, just pointing out the effect of points deficit.