Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[FB19]

In your example the 735 points deficit gets carried over to same round as the bid match was made( 1st round in this case). They have F2 which will get eaten up fully. The more points they can reduce, the F2 will get adjusted to pick in 30's or 40's.

Similarly for Dons, if Davey gets bid in 1st round, they don't have enough points to cover it if they trade 22 out( unless they bring in picks), it should affect their 1st round pick for next yr. If he gets bid in 2nd round( pick 20+) the deficit affects their 2nd round pick & 1st round remains untouched. Hence the need for them to get a late pick back.

Appreciate the responses albeit they haven’t really answered the quezon in full. The point is after Ashcroft they have late picks left which won’t be enough by a long way to match bid for fletcher even after 20% discount . They also don’t have a f1 so first pick is 37 which is not enough so do they have to also use 49 essentially a continuation of bid matching until they have the points, with residual becoming a new pick for them in 2023?

 

[FB19]

If a bid comes in before 22 we trade it for an F2 and a pick in the 40's. We'll be fine dude. The fact you don't realise that both clubs will have planned for every eventuality already says everything

Brisbane will trade one of their seconds for more points as soon as the draft starts. And then when Fletcher gets bid on they'll trade an F3 somewhere for more points.

I think we realise the clubs who do this professionally will have planned for a series of eventualities, not every eventuality of course that’s impossible, but love your support for such a difficult profession. As an amateur draft enthusiast I am simply trying to get a better handle on how the system works and what possibilities my club maybe able to open up.

 

[hawkinoz]

Appreciate the responses albeit they haven’t really answered the quezon in full. The point is after Ashcroft they have late picks left which won’t be enough by a long way to match bid for fletcher even after 20% discount . They also don’t have a f1 so first pick is 37 which is not enough so do they have to also use 49 essentially a continuation of bid matching until they have the points, with residual becoming a new pick for them in 2023?

yes.. the residual will become new pick in 2023.
just to clarify if Munkara gets bid on after pick 40 and dons match it but don't have points, the deficit point affects only their 3rd round pick onwards for 2023 and same rule for residual points turning to equivalent pick.

 

[Dudoro]

yes.. the residual will become new pick in 2023.
just to clarify if Munkara gets bid on after pick 40 and dons match it but don't have points, the deficit point affects only their 3rd round pick onwards for 2023 and same rule for residual points turning to equivalent pick.

Just use next available pick i believe if a bid is placed outside top 40 for NGA no need to match points

 

[old55]

Issue with that is we cant wait till our pick

And if we do and the Davey bid hasnt come then we will just use the pick

Agreed. We'd have to take a risk and go early and project forward that our player would still be there. There's often pretty good intelligence on who is taking who even into the 20s but it is a risk.

 

[hawkinoz]

Just use next available pick i believe if a bid is placed outside top 40 for NGA no need to match points

if you don't have any picks? becomes a free hit?

thought it was same as FS, my bad.

 

[Dudoro]

if you don't have any picks? becomes a free hit?

thought it was same as FS, my bad.

Trying to find info on it but can’t. Assume it’s just a late pick like you do with a rookie elevation 80+ or whatever

 

[eth-dog]

Just use next available pick i believe if a bid is placed outside top 40 for NGA no need to match points

Need to match points.

 

[FB19]

Does anyone have a link to where the rules are clearly stated about matching I spent a little time now trying to find it and couldn’t find anything particularly useful. Why is it so hard is it because they don’t exist and it’s being made up as they go along?

 

[hawkinoz]

Does anyone have a link to where the rules are clearly stated about matching I spent a little time now trying to find it and couldn’t find anything particularly useful. Why is it so hard is it because they don’t exist and it’s being made up as they go along?

Seen an old article with some info earlier

AFL closes draft bidding system loophole

AFL acts on possible loophole in draft bidding system

www.afl.com.au

 

[FB19]

Seen an old article with some info earlier

AFL closes draft bidding system loophole

AFL acts on possible loophole in draft bidding system

www.afl.com.au

My favourite word “farce”
We have to use an article from 2015 to try and understand the rules.
To that end I just found a much better article from the age from same time period. Essentially the main thing it explained was matching where bids you to pick 18 get a 20% discount and after that (even if first round picks push out beyond 18) then the discount is a fixed 197 points (20% of pick 18). So it encourages taking f/s and academy later given better discount and from pick 56 you can just take them with any pick as 56 is only worth 194 points. So if Munkara gets bid on at 41 dons can match with pick 54 outright of anything later with a small deficit. For us it means hanging onto a later pick to avoid small impacts to 2023.

An idiot's guide to the new AFL bidding system

amp.theage.com.au

 

[citizen-erased]

Carlton and dons
22 for f2 and 49

Then gcs and dons
F1 + 2x f2 + f3 for 5 and f1?

Blues get into 2nd this year as rumoured
Suns load up on future picks and assuming similar positions next year, they move up and potentially ahead of a bid

Dons can draft 2 of tsatas, Humphrey and phillipou

 

[TheTassieHawk]

Carlton and dons
22 for f2 and 49

Then gcs and dons
F1 + 2x f2 + f3 for 5 and f1?

Blues get into 2nd this year as rumoured
Suns load up on future picks and assuming similar positions next year, they move up and potentially ahead of a bid

Dons can draft 2 of tsatas, Humphrey and phillipou

I don't think that Essendon can trade out their future first and third and their only future second rounders.

Notwithstanding, the Suns already have a few extra 2023 picks so are unlikely to be wanting a heap more.

I think GCS draft a top 6 pick this season then make moves next season when they have a better idea what 2023 picks they have/need for points.

 

[Stamos]

Carlton and dons
22 for f2 and 49

Then gcs and dons
F1 + 2x f2 + f3 for 5 and f1?

Blues get into 2nd this year as rumoured
Suns load up on future picks and assuming similar positions next year, they move up and potentially ahead of a bid

Dons can draft 2 of tsatas, Humphrey and phillipou

The Carlton part of the trade would very likely be on, provided we can't get something done earlier (eg trade #10 back to Swans or Giants for 2 picks). But the latest rumour is the Suns are looking for a second top 10 pick this year, I seriously doubt they're trading out of the 1st round.

I don't think that Essendon can trade out their future first and third and their only future second rounders.

The proposed trade has them getting Suns' F1 back, so all allowed.

 

[Keystone agony]

Carlton and dons
22 for f2 and 49

Then gcs and dons
F1 + 2x f2 + f3 for 5 and f1?

Blues get into 2nd this year as rumoured
Suns load up on future picks and assuming similar positions next year, they move up and potentially ahead of a bid

Dons can draft 2 of tsatas, Humphrey and phillipou

Id be pretty confident we are asking to trade to Stkilda with their F2 and 47 for 22

There is talk saints want a 2nd, 2nd rounder this year and another pick between their 1st and 2nd

 

[FB19]

Id be pretty confident we are asking to trade to Stkilda with their F2 and 47 for 22

There is talk saints want a 2nd, 2nd rounder this year and another pick between their 1st and 2nd

Hawks would do a better deal than that for 22
f2 dogs and 41 for 22 and 54
We would on trade 50,52,54 to lions for 36
Hawks 6,22,24,36,48,65

 

[Keystone agony]

Hawks would do a better deal than that for 22
f2 dogs and 41 for 22 and 54
We would on trade 50,52,54 to lions for 36
Hawks 6,22,24,36,48,65

Id take F2 Saints and 47 over that

 

[hawkinoz]

Hawks should just plan to trade all their later one for 2( not 3) of lions mid 30's pick and wait it out.

if good deals come through fine, if not 6,24,34,35 is still good enough.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

But the latest rumour is the Suns are looking for a second top 10 pick this year.

Wat. They could have just not been *******s and had that scenario occur for them.

 

[eth-dog]

Hawks should just plan to trade all their later one for 3 of lions mid 30's pick and wait it out.

if good deals come through fine, if not 6,24,34,35 is still good enough.

34, 35, 36, 38: 2031 points.
41, 48, 50, 52, 65: 1305 points.

Great strategy. Even 35, 36 and 38 is more points.

 

[FB19]

Been trying for a while to see how we could get suns 2023 f1 whilst still holding a reasonable 2022 hand.
Suns need 2023 points for academy but not the swathe of late picks given the open list spots requirement and their list numbers are tight. So we can help them by taking late picks away and giving f2 picks so they have similar points via less picks.
Suns give f1, 4 x late picks (cats f3, crows, suns and saints f4) and 45 to hawks
Hawks give 48 and f2, f2(dogs), f2(dees tied to freo), f3 to suns (approx 150 more points plus 1 less list spot needed)
Hawks give dees 24 for f2(dees tied to freo)
Hawks give 41,45,50,52,65 to lions for 36,38,55

Hawks 2022 6,36,38,55,65 - so main loss is 24 to 36 but upgrade 41 to 38
Hawks 2023 f1, f1(suns), late picks for McCabe - trade out of second and third rounds effectively but gain 2 top 10 talents in strong draft

What underpins this is I don’t think dons will trade us 22 so better to focus elsewhere and I think 36,38 will find us good players. ultimately we have a lot of solid young players which we add to with 36,38 this year, but from next year let’s start adding elite picks.

chopflop thisnis what I was referring to

 

[hawkinoz]

34, 35, 36, 38: 2031 points.
41, 48, 50, 52, 65: 1305 points.

Great strategy. Even 35, 36 and 38 is more points.

nope, just 35 & 36( equates to 1024 pts) for 41, 48, 50, 52 : 1215 points.
end up with 6,24,35,36,65

Becomes 7,25,35,36,60 after Ashcroft bid

 

[FB19]

nope, just 35 & 36( equates to 1024 pts) for 41, 48, 50, 52 : 1215 points.
end up with 6,24,35,36,65

Becomes 7,25,35,36,60 after Ashcroft bid

The confusion was your post said we should get 3 of the lions 30s picks but then you only listed us having 34,35

 

[FB19]

Hawks trade 24 and 35 to dogs
Hawks trade 48 to blues
Hawks trade 41,49,50,52 to lions
Lions trade 35,36 to hawks
Blues trade 49 to hawks
Dogs trade 21 and 39 to hawks

Hawks 6,21,36,39,65. Simply to mess with dons bid on Davey and take Munkara at 39

It’s a better hand than we have but would have to give dogs more to do it I’m pretty sure.

 

[hawkinoz]

Hawks trade 24 and 35 to dogs
Hawks trade 48 to blues
Hawks trade 41,49,50,52 to lions
Lions trade 35,36 to hawks
Blues trade 49 to hawks
Dogs trade 21 and 39 to hawks

Hawks 6,21,36,39,65. Simply to mess with dons bid on Davey and take Munkara at 39

It’s a better hand than we have but would have to give dogs more to do it I’m pretty sure.

too much time on your hands mate... 39 becomes 41 after the 4 FS bids(- the pick 34 & 38 that gets taken for points), so no cookie with that

I am happy with 6,24,35,36 and I am positive Davey will get bid by the dogs or even earlier. Not like th Dons are not going to match at those bids anyway. He is rated around 17,18 and if Dons don't match the otehr team gets a very good player.

And yes, 36 becomes 38 and can be used to bid on Munkara if other targets are gone.