Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[Pistol Night]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

Maybe if we drugged them before proposing that?

 

[KinderSmock]

On the surface, Pick 5 for Picks 17+26 has about 100 points difference in it in terms of DVI (relevant because of Alwyn).

However, yeah maybe it was a bit optimistic.

 

[KinderSmock]

Would you do that that’s horrible.

I might if I liked the look of two players instead of one.

 

[Jen2310]

On the surface, Pick 5 for Picks 17+26 has about 100 points difference in it in terms of DVI (relevant because of Alwyn).

However, yeah maybe it was a bit optimistic.

They would never deal with the first pick, because a bid wont come in the top 10.

 

[eth-dog]

On the surface, Pick 5 for Picks 17+26 has about 100 points difference in it in terms of DVI (relevant because of Alwyn).

However, yeah maybe it was a bit optimistic.

Points are irrelevant.

I'd turn 17 and your F1 for 5.

 

[Jen2310]

Points are irrelevant.

I'd turn 17 and your F1 for 5.

And we can't trade out a F1 given we have no F2 or F3 so its pointless.

 

[Mick F]

On the surface, Pick 5 for Picks 17+26 has about 100 points difference in it in terms of DVI (relevant because of Alwyn).

However, yeah maybe it was a bit optimistic.

17 and 26 gets you pick 10.

Eth-dog has discounted 25%, which is about right.

 

[JGreezy]

Yep, very happy at 9. I’d rather use next years first to bring that in for a pick, not to simply move up.

Yeah, I think that 9 is a great position in this draft. Good players are going to be available there. There isn't too much difference between 4 and 9, imo. The only guy that I could see the Saints trading up for is Wardlaw.

I wouldn't trade F1 for Tsatas, let alone pick 9 as well.

 

[sherrif]

The Liam Henry live bid situation would be the closest comparison. Not the same situation exactly but the point is that we had zero leverage when a surprise early bid came through to get points. We ended up trading pick No.66 and our rights to St Kilda future second-round pick to Port Adelaide for picks 52 and 55 while still incurring a points deficit. By the way I wouldn't rule out Carlton live bidding at pick 11. It's how they roll. Ive seen Davey as high as 13 in some of the mock drafts. 13-20 is the exact range most had Liam Henry at before his draft for what its worth. By the way Melbourne, West Coast, the Bulldogs and GWS could all use a classy small forward. I cant seen Davey getting past the GWS Pick 15 (that will be at least 16 at the time of the draft personally.) Quick and skillfull small forwards is one of their biggest needs.

I don't see why either club would do that. 26 won't get us an extra pick and it would net less than 22. And West Coast traded pick 2 out for multiple firsts for a reason. St Kilda, Carlton and maybe the Dogs are the only ones I can see us trading down to for various reasons. Gold Coast won't do it, Hawks won't trade out their F1, Geelong don't have a F1, West Coast as above and anything else is too late to have.

I can only see us trading it if we get an F1 out of the deal.

I doubt Melbourne or Sydney bid on him. Earliest would probably be GWS at 16, which is another 130 points and more than covered by pick 54 (51)

What was the highest pick traded when this happened, out of curiosity?

I can't see any mock drafts where Davey lasts pasts pick 17. In the latest most have him receiving a bid at 14-17. I think both the Eagles and Dogs are a chance to bid for him at picks 12 and 13 in the live draft and I can't see GWS not bidding for him at 16 in the live draft. In my trade suggestion you responded to I had West Coast getting pick 22 so the pick 26 I had you getting was so that you had the points for Davey and the ability to also trade in a future pick. Eg A trade involving my team Freo that could work with our Pick 44 that would have moved up a few places after the live bid for Ashcroft and our future Carlton 3rd rounder we traded in for pick 27 at the time a bid is made for Davey.

 

[sherrif]

Maybe if we drugged them before proposing that?

That would be the worst trade in history if Collingwood agreed to it. Davey is likely to get a bid before pick 17 with GWS at pick 16 highly likely. There is now way known GWS wouldn't want a player with Alwyn's skillset. A classy small forward is a huge need for their list.

 

[sherrif]

Unlikely. We probably want a higher end F2 if it happens.

Melbourne have Freo's future 2nd as well.

 

[Two Planks]

Would Essendon trade 5 and 23 to Sydney for 14, 17 and FR1

 

[eth-dog]

Would Essendon trade 5 and 23 to Sydney for 14, 17 and FR1

Probably not. And I doubt Sydney would either. Realistically the only teams who might be able to trade up to 5 are St. Kilda, Carlton and Western Bulldogs

 

[sherrif]

Would Essendon trade 5 and 23 to Sydney for 14, 17 and FR1

I doubt Essendon would considering the risk of Davey getting a bid before 17 is significant.

 

[Ash1337]

Dreamt that dogs were looking to trade 11 to dons for their 22 and future 1st. There was a haggling over picks but it essentially meant dogs had 21 & 22 and looked at drafting Cowan & George. I think dons will do that if GWS or Sydney are looking at bidding on Davey jr with 1 of their picks and want to get another player before that happens.

 

[Carl]

Dreamt that dogs were looking to trade 11 to dons for their 22 and future 1st. There was a haggling over picks but it essentially meant dogs had 21 & 22 and looked at drafting Cowan & George. I think dons will do that if GWS or Sydney are looking at bidding on Davey jr with 1 of their picks and want to get another player before that happens.

Keep dreaming. You do realise Essendon's first pick this year is pick 4 before father/son bidding.

I think they would prefer to use pick 22 on Davey than get caught up in a deal like that. I can't see anyone bidding on Davey before pick 22.

 

[hawkinoz]

Keep dreaming. You do realise Essendon's first pick this year is pick 4 before father/son bidding.

I think they would prefer to use pick 22 on Davey than get caught up in a deal like that. I can't see anyone bidding on Davey before pick 22.

Most mock drafts have Davey being picked btw 15 & 18. So bombers have to plan for 22 to be gobbled up or trading it out to gain some benefit. I hear Hawks have offered the F2(WB) they have & could likely offer a late pick to help bombers with points. But if they try to negotiate this deal on draft night, could be hard as Hawks may have traded all their picks to swap with Lions picks in 30s. Doubt they will trade back a 30's pick as well as their F2(WB) then.

Then the option could be for Bombers to trade 25(22 moves down after 3 FS bids) for F2(Hawks) and after Davey trade, trade back their late 30's pick for a trade of F2(Dons).

So basically swap of F2+ 38/39/40 for 25.

If not, will be straight trade for F2(WB) for 25 and then bombers have to trade their F2 or F2(WB) with someone for the picks in late 20's - 30's

 

[Ash1337]

Keep dreaming. You do realise Essendon's first pick this year is pick 4 before father/son bidding.

I think they would prefer to use pick 22 on Davey than get caught up in a deal like that. I can't see anyone bidding on Davey before pick 22.

It depends where they see themselves next year. New coach and new gameplan can see them pushing mid table.

Davey will definitely be bid on before Konstanty, Clarke & Jones if a team desires a small forward. He's a step above them all.

If they rate someone like Hewett, Jefferson or Hayes. Over next year they might do it. Their tall forward stocks beyond Cox is pretty awful and their tall defender stocks is just as bad.

Something like Dogs 11, 39, F2, F4 for 22 + F1.

 

[eth-dog]

It depends where they see themselves next year. New coach and new gameplan can see them pushing mid table.

Davey will definitely be bid on before Konstanty, Clarke & Jones if a team desires a small forward. He's a step above them all.

If they rate someone like Hewett, Jefferson or Hayes. Over next year they might do it. Their tall forward stocks beyond Cox is pretty awful and their tall defender stocks is just as bad.

Something like Dogs 11, 39, F2, F4 for 22 + F1.

We won't trade our F1, period.

As for our key forward stocks being "awful", Harrison Jones kicked 20 goals last year as a 20 year old, Kaine Baldwin kicked 26 this year in an average VFL side. And Wright is hardly long in the tooth, still has 6 years of good footy left.

We'll try to package 22 and our F2 for a pick from one of Sydney, Melbourne, GWS or Collingwood before a Davey bid. If a bid comes in, we'll trade it to someone like Hawthorne, Carlton, Gold Coast, Adelaide or Western Bulldogs for a F2 and a later pick to cover the points

 

[Mostyn]

Dreamt that dogs were looking to trade 11 to dons for their 22 and future 1st. There was a haggling over picks but it essentially meant dogs had 21 & 22 and looked at drafting Cowan & George. I think dons will do that if GWS or Sydney are looking at bidding on Davey jr with 1 of their picks and want to get another player before that happens.

So pick 11 for pick 22 and next year's pick 3?

Sign me up ...

 

[Ash1337]

So pick 11 for pick 22 and next year's pick 3?

Sign me up ...

Well I think the dream was 11 for 22 and F2 which is pretty light for 11 and it makes it really hard for dons to get the points for Davey Jnr as they only have a F3 and F4. However they could trade 11 and 1 of their 4th rounders for 14 and 42 from the swans.

It was a silly dream. Dogs are better off trading 11 and 21 for 15 & 18 or or 14 & 17 if they want to trade down.

 

[hawkinoz]

Would like to see Hawks trade pick 48 to GWS for 57 & 61. GWS are unlikely to use both those picks and would see value in trading up.

That will unlock 48's value to trade back to Lions for their mid-30's pick. Hawks can't use 48 in any trade with Lions as that was part of trade lions gave for Gunners.

Then hawks can trade for 36,38,73(976pts) <-> 41, 50, 52, 61, 65 (1156pts).Should do this trade under the assumption Dons will play too hard for pick 22 and better to pass on it.

Hawks will then have 6, 24, 36, 38, 57, 73

this should be 7, 27, 37, 39, 52, 65 (After the 3 FS bids within Top 20)

After crows FS bid our 30's pick is likely to 38 & 40. Will be very interesting if hawks feel like Munkara is best at pick 40.

 

[sherrif]

That will unlock 48's value to trade back to Lions for their mid-30's pick. Hawks can't use 48 in any trade with Lions as that was part of trade lions gave for Gunners.

Then hawks can trade for 36,38,73(976pts) <-> 41, 50, 52, 61, 65 (1156pts).Should do this trade under the assumption Dons will play too hard for pick 22 and better to pass on it.

Hawks will then have 6, 24, 36, 38, 57, 73

this should be 7, 27, 37, 39, 52, 65 (After the 3 FS bids within Top 20)

After crows FS bid our 30's pick is likely to 38 & 40. Will be very interesting if hawks feel like Munkara is best at pick 40.

I think the Hawks could get the pick 22 (which would be taken at pick 25) in live trading for pick 39 and the future Bulldogs second rounder Freo traded to them with an Essendon third rounder also going to the Hawks. With live trading a team has less leverage to negotiate the maximum deal. I know that after what happened when we (Freo) had to bid for Liam Henry after an earlier than expected bid from Carlton. If Essendon needs more points than they expected for a A.Davey bid don't be surprised if you gat an extra pick back.

 

[Giant Pete]

That would be the worst trade in history if Collingwood agreed to it. Davey is likely to get a bid before pick 17 with GWS at pick 16 highly likely. There is now way known GWS wouldn't want a player with Alwyn's skillset. A classy small forward is a huge need for their list.

We won’t bid on him. He’d be out of there as soon as his first contract is done.

 

[Dangerousfield]

We won’t bid on him. He’d be out of there as soon as his first contract is done.

But would you still be having to deal with Dodoro, or will he also be done by then?