Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[eth-dog]

We won’t bid on him. He’d be out of there as soon as his first contract is done.

You wouldn't get him anyway. In the instance that you bid before we trade up, we'd trade pick 22 for a F2 and a third round pick of some kind.

I do see you guys bidding on him, but more likely with 19 or 20.

 

[Obeanie1]

Come draft night a player your club wants has slid to the Eagles pick 8/9.

Your club maywant to jump ahead of a rival to land a player.

What live trade would you propose to land your target?

Could be a player such as Clark, Humphrey, McKenzie, Ginbey, Busslinge or even Tsatas.

 

[hawkinoz]

I think the Hawks could get the pick 22 (which would be taken at pick 25) in live trading for pick 39 and the future Bulldogs second rounder Freo traded to them with an Essendon third rounder also going to the Hawks. With live trading a team has less leverage to negotiate the maximum deal. I know that after what happened when we (Freo) had to bid for Liam Henry after an earlier than expected bid from Carlton. If Essendon needs more points than they expected for a A.Davey bid don't be surprised if you gat an extra pick back.

Only if a decent future pick comes back will trading 39 & F2(WB) for 25 makes sense. As of now, they have F3, F4, F4(Syd).

After the 2 FS lion bid match, Bombers should have 5, 24, 51, 57, 62, 66 ( started with 4, 22, 54, 62, 68, 72)

Bombers will likely want the 39 only after the Davey trade, so will require hand shake deals to be done.

24/25 for F2(WB)+52 from hawks - prior to Davey trade ( but not much use without adding the 52 as Bombers need points)
F3+(late pick) for 39 from Hawks - after Davey trade

Having said that, I would like to keep our 41 & 48if Bombers want to do deal as that gives better flexibility with late pick options. Hawks are likely to pick 1 NGA( Cooper Vickery) & 1 FS ( Jerome Lawrence) with late picks.

Just swap 36,73(511pts) <-> 50, 52, 65 (609pts)
Will give hawks 6, 24, 36, 41, 48(57+61), 73

Then pick 48(instead of 39) can be used for trade deals with Dons. or 57 if we get it from GWS and keep 61

 

[hawkinoz]

Come draft night a player your club wants has slid to the Eagles pick 8/9.

Your club maywant to jump ahead of a rival to land a player.

What live trade would you propose to land your target?

Could be a player such as Clark, Humphrey, McKenzie, Ginbey, Busslinge or even Tsatas.

If Sheezel is available at Pick 3/4, then would want Hawks to offer a F1 pick swap with North to swap it with our pick 6/7.

If we end up with spoon as predicted, will give North Harley Reid.

 

[Obeanie1]

If Sheezel is available at Pick 3/4, then would want Hawks to offer a F1 pick swap with North to swap it with our pick 6/7.

If we end up with spoon as predicted, will give North Harley Reid.

I'm asking about pick 8/9 currently with the Eagles.

Sheezel won't slide that far.

Players like Phillapou, Clark, Humphrey, McKenzie or Busslinger may slide to pick 8/9.

 

[hawkinoz]

Saints seem desperate for Mackenzie and hawks are the team they need to talk to. Every draft board has hawks picking Cam.

Maybe hawks will agree to 9+28+f1 for 6+24, seems fair. saints fans?

maybe even swap the pick 41 with 32.

 

[Ash1337]

Saints seem desperate for Mackenzie and hawks are the team they need to talk to. Every draft board has hawks picking Cam.

Maybe hawks will agree to 9+28+f1 for 6+24, seems fair. saints fans?

maybe even swap the pick 41 with 32.

It's likely 1 of Humphrey or Tsatas is there for hawks at 6. They're not going to grab Mackenzie with those 2 on the table unless they don't rate them over Mackenzie. The chance of Mackenzie being at 9 is high.

 

[hawkinoz]

It's likely 1 of Humphrey or Tsatas is there for hawks at 6. They're not going to grab Mackenzie with those 2 on the table unless they don't rate them over Mackenzie. The chance of Mackenzie being at 9 is high.

That happens only if Phillipou jumps up, If that is the case & saints don't do the trade as Mackenzie would slide.
If not, it is in their interest to trade if they are sold on Mackenzie. As I said, most draft boards have
Cadman- GWS,
Ashcroft - Lions,
Sheezel & Wardlaw - North,
Tsatas - Dons,
Humphrey - Suns,
Mackenzie - Hawks,
Clark - Cats,
Ginbey - Eagles,
Philippou - Saints

If Humphrey is present at Hawks pick then the deal with Swans for 14+17+F1 for 6 ( with some pick swaps) would be an option as well for hawks. Swans are keen to jump up to get Humphrey & I bet are talking to Suns & Hawks.

For me one of Mackenzie, Philippou or Clark works and one of them is available at 6 or 9.

Jefferson is an option if we slide to teens.

 

[BrutThough]

Saints seem desperate for Mackenzie and hawks are the team they need to talk to. Every draft board has hawks picking Cam.

Maybe hawks will agree to 9+28+f1 for 6+24, seems fair. saints fans?

maybe even swap the pick 41 with 32.

Do they? The only place I've seen this supposed depression expressed is from opposition fans who want to be given an additional first round pick.

 

[hawkinoz]

Do they? The only place I've seen this supposed depression expressed is from opposition fans who want to be given an additional first round pick.

Fair enough, If Mackenzie is on board at 6, would you want Saints to trade up.

if so, what is a fair trade.

 

[BrutThough]

Fair enough, If Mackenzie is on board at 6, would you want Saints to trade up.

if so, what is a fair trade.

No. He isn't worth more than anyone else in that range because he has been in our academy.

If he goes at 6, then we take whichever similarly rated player is still available at 9(10).

 

[FB19]

It’s unfortunate for your argument hawkinoz you met the one sensible knowledgeable St kilda supporter.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Only if a decent future pick comes back will trading 39 & F2(WB) for 25 makes sense. As of now, they have F3, F4, F4(Syd).

After the 2 FS lion bid match, Bombers should have 5, 24, 51, 57, 62, 66 ( started with 4, 22, 54, 62, 68, 72)

Bombers will likely want the 39 only after the Davey trade, so will require hand shake deals to be done.

24/25 for F2(WB)+52 from hawks - prior to Davey trade ( but not much use without adding the 52 as Bombers need points)
F3+(late pick) for 39 from Hawks - after Davey trade

Having said that, I would like to keep our 41 & 48if Bombers want to do deal as that gives better flexibility with late pick options. Hawks are likely to pick 1 NGA( Cooper Vickery) & 1 FS ( Jerome Lawrence) with late picks.

Just swap 36,73(511pts) <-> 50, 52, 65 (609pts)
Will give hawks 6, 24, 36, 41, 48(57+61), 73

Then pick 48(instead of 39) can be used for trade deals with Dons. or 57 if we get it from GWS and keep 61

Hawks will have 2 2nds , not just 24

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No. He isn't worth more than anyone else in that range because he has been in our academy.

If he goes at 6, then we take whichever similarly rated player is still available at 9(10).

Yep and St Kilda would be beyond nuts to trade their future first in any shape or form. Yeah you may hope for a better season but a new coach is no certainty either. You’ll get a quality player at 9, no point trading up a couple of spots, for a player that’s likely the same and giving up a future first in the process!

 

[hawkinoz]

Yep and St Kilda would be beyond nuts to trade their future first in any shape or form. Yeah you may hope for a better season but a new coach is no certainty either. You’ll get a quality player at 9, no point trading up a couple of spots, for a player that’s likely the same and giving up a future first in the process!

If they don't rate Mackenzie that highly, then it would be nuts.

if they do, there is some cost that is acceptable. What is the cost.

is it 9 + 28 then for 6 if no F1 can be included. Will Hawks see that as fair or would they want 31 to be included as well with 41 going back.

Maybe the sane option is for Saints to stick to 9, dunno just spit balling since I hear Saints rate Mackenzie.

For ex: We rated Newcombe in mid season draft and so we asked him to set terms. At that stage, it was expected Hawks did it to take him with their 2nd pick to have freedom to use 1st pick on someone else worthy but we still took him with our 1st. ( Maybe they had an inkling someone else would meet his terms)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If they don't rate Mackenzie that highly, then it would be nuts.

if they do, there is some cost that is acceptable. What is the cost.

is it 9 + 28 then for 6 if no F1 can be included. Will Hawks see that as fair or would they want 31 to be included as well with 41 going back.

Maybe the sane option is for Saints to stick to 9, dunno just spit balling since I hear Saints rate Mackenzie. We rated Newcombe and so we asked him to set terms.

at that stage, it was expected Hawks did it to take him with their 2nd pick to have freedom to use 1st pick on someone else worthy but we still took him with our 1st. ( Maybe they had an inkling someone else would meet his terms)

At that range they are all similar prospects. Saints won’t trade their first in next years draft which is likely to be better and a top 10-12 selection at best and it could be worse. You’d only trade a f1 if you were certain of improvement. Saints would be more than happy with a Philippou or whatever. Cost is everything, Saints would need their heads checked if they put their future on the table.

 

[hawkinoz]

At that range they are all similar prospects. Saints won’t trade their first in next years draft which is likely to be better and a top 10-12 selection at best and it could be worse. You’d only trade a f1 if you were certain of improvement. Saints would be more than happy with a Philippou or whatever. Cost is everything, Saints would need their heads checked if they put their future on the table.

he comes from their academy, so they know something about him that others don't. Forget F1. Is he worth bundling pick 28+31 to get.

We will only know on trade night.

 

[sherrif]

Come draft night a player your club wants has slid to the Eagles pick 8/9.

Your club maywant to jump ahead of a rival to land a player.

What live trade would you propose to land your target?

Could be a player such as Clark, Humphrey, McKenzie, Ginbey, Busslinge or even Tsatas.

I think the Bulldogs would offer pick 11 and pick 21 if Busslinge was still available with the port third rounder also going back to the Bulldogs. Carlton I think would deal their first pick and a future second with the Port third going back. Both teams a re massively keen on Busslinge apparently. If Tsatas fell to pick 8/9 the Eagles should just pick him themselves. In fact if I were the Eagles and if Tsatas was still available at the Gold Coast pick I'd be offering the Port future second and pick 8 for Tsatas. He's exactly what you need. If you are super keen on Gindbey and you knew Gold Coast was likely to not pick him then you could trade with the Saints in live trading in a trade involving pick 9 and your pick 12+ another West Coast pick.

 

[Keystone agony]

Ess Pick 4 and 22

WBD pick 11, F1 and F1(Tied Brisbane)

 

[Ash1337]

Ess Pick 4 and 22

WBD pick 11, F1 and F1(Tied Brisbane)

Horrible trade lol. The F1 picks are worth about 4 together considering the draft talent next year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Horrible trade lol. The F1 picks are worth about 4 together considering the draft talent next year.

Strongly disagree, will be pushed back aswell

Weve seen what clubs have needed to trade up for players they like

GWS in 2019 to move from 6 to 4 was a F1
Port to move up 2 spots for Sinn
GC for Flanders and Sharp
Blues for Stocker

Like maybe it slightly favours essendon and wed need to give more up in the future but people are gettinf caight up a bit much in the yearly rhetoric of next years group is better

 

[sherrif]

Fair enough, If Mackenzie is on board at 6, would you want Saints to trade up.

if so, what is a fair trade.

Most of the mocks have Mackenzie still available at the Saints first pick which will be pick ten in the draft. Only a few have him any higher. The latest rumours seem to suggest that StKilda rate Busslinger above Mackenzie.

 

[hawkinoz]

Most of the mocks have Mackenzie still available at pick ten. Only a few have him any higher. The latest rumours seem to suggest that StKilda rate Busslinger above Mackenzie.

Only seen in one of the recent mock ones as they have Dons taking Phillippou which then sees Tsatas to Suns & Humphrey to hawks. But look at anything else, it is Mackenzie to hawks.
It is a safe reliable pick for Hawks & seems to be the preferred option on Hawks board as well. But if someone came with an offer if either Humphrey( Sydney) or Mackenzie was available at Hawks pick, would they take it.

depends on the offer.

 

[sherrif]

Horrible trade lol. The F1 picks are worth about 4 together considering the draft talent next year.

No way that happens. In my opinion a way more likely situation is that the Bulldogs don't trade heir current picks and in the 2023 trade period they use the two future Brisbane picks and trade with Gold Coast for their first pick in the 2023 draft if Brisbane come close winning the premiership and Gold Coast stay at about the same position they are currently.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

10 & future 2nd to GWS for 15 & 18 (or 19 if they wanted to play hard ball)