Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[Keystone agony]

what would you use as evidence then when OP said Mackenzie is rated outside top 8?

Twomeys latest phantom has him at 9 thats the best indication

I could do a mock draft and pick Phillipou at 1.... means nothing

Ill say it again the saints are either getting 1 of the 8 or Cam Mckenzie at pick 9, its an ideal position to be if they like Mckenzie

 

[hawkinoz]

You could put Phillipou at No: 1 but when 95% of mocks put Mackenzie as going to hawks, I would think he is not crossing our pick

 

[Keystone agony]

You could put Phillipou at No: 1 but when 95% of mocks put Mackenzie as going to hawks, I would think he is not crossing our pick

Please understand bigfooty people have no intel as to what clubs are doing

 

[Jeremias]

what would you use as evidence then when OP said Mackenzie is rated outside top 8?

There's no reference of Mackenzie in the OP.

As for 'evidence', I'm not sure you need any. I'd probably just understand that those sharing their views on BF are not speaking on behalf of clubs and don't get access to these kids anywhere near as much as those within club-land.

 

[hawkinoz]

If saints are big fans of Mckenzie as the hawk fans are suggesting then they sit in the perfect position right now at pick 9

A clear top 8 + Mckenzie. Theyre guaranteed one

This was the OP I was referring to as I replied to this, (not the OP of the thread.)

My point being if posters on BF have Mackenzie going at 7 to hawks, then he is in clear top 7 in context of discussion on BF.

real AFL world gets revealed only on draft night.

 

[FB19]

Feel like Adelaide F2 and a 2022 3rd could get 22.

If prior then maybe, if it’s live trading isn’t that overs? Although crows 3rd is tied to pies so it’s more like 24 and 54 but still think that’s overs for a pick that gets consumed through a bid. I don’t think you have the same leverage as a genuine trade up. Also depends on who’s there at 22 we might do something for it for dogs f2 and some pick swaps to help with second Davey and Munkara but couldn’t see our f2 being in play.

 

[Stamos]

GWS likely to trade out 19 on the second night, wait and see on the offers but from my bias POV we should be able to get a future first

Do you think you'd be open to trading #18 instead?
I realise the 1st pick of the 2nd round has value because teams have 20 odd hours to stew over the decision, but for some clubs, taking a player in the first round has value.

Eg, say there's a player available that Carlton are willing to trade F1 for (would need F3 back), picking officially in the first round would be more palatable, given we will have only used a single 1st round pick in the last 3 years.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Absolutely zero chance.

Adelaide would have just given GCS their F1 if they wanted to do that - and they DIDN'T want to do that.

Phillipou isn't considered the equivalent to anyone in the top 12 to 15 next year.

Perhaps pick 11 and Carl F1 for Adel F1 and NM F2?

Why on Earth would Carlton do that deal.

 

[sydney_gws]

I think swans could target essendon 2023r1.
Trade 14,2023r1 for 22, essendon 2023r1.
The risk for essendon is mitigated as if they are bad, Parish ( or merrett) leave as a free agent, essendon get a first rounder that is top 5 as compensation.
Could this work?

 

[Claythesmiths]

I think swans could target essendon 2023r1.
Trade 14,2023r1 for 22, essendon 2023r1.
The risk for essendon is mitigated as if they are bad, Parish ( or merrett) leave as a free agent, essendon get a first rounder that is top 5 as compensation.
Could this work?

Merrett is contracted 'til 2027, and I think Parish would need to have an amazing year to get the kind of contract that would earn Essendon band 1 compensation. I don't think Essendon will trade their F1 for anything.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think swans could target essendon 2023r1.
Trade 14,2023r1 for 22, essendon 2023r1.
The risk for essendon is mitigated as if they are bad, Parish ( or merrett) leave as a free agent, essendon get a first rounder that is top 5 as compensation.
Could this work?

Essentially

14 and Future pick 17 for 22 and Future pick 6

Id hope not, id think most clubs would be hesitant giving up 6 for 14 and 17

 

[sydney_gws]

Essentially

14 and Future pick 17 for 22 and Future pick 6

Id hope not, id think most clubs would be hesitant giving up 6 for 14 and 17

I was just trying to help essendon move up the board this year, get ahead of a davey bid.
I don't think they can any other way if nobody wants to trade down ( even Cal Twomey is saying that, not just big footy posters).

 

[Keystone agony]

I was just trying to help essendon move up the board this year, get ahead of a davey bid.
I don't think they can any other way if nobody wants to trade down ( even Cal Twomey is saying that, not just big footy posters).

Where has Cal Twomey said that?

I think we would prefer to get an F2 as worse case scenario and keep our F1 instead of say 14 and a future 17 but it does depend whos available

Also personally think 14 is bordering on being a perfect spot or terrible spot

If a Cadman, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, J.Clark, Humphry, Phillipou, Mckenzie, Hollands, Ginbey, E.Hewett, Jefferson is available then maybe its a reconsider to a degree. Think theres a good chance the 12 are gone before 14

 

[Mostyn]

Why on Earth would Carlton do that deal.

This year's draft is terrible, next year's is very strong and they want to improve their position?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

This year's draft is terrible, next year's is very strong and they want to improve their position?

Adelaide are the ones who want Phillipou in your scenario, so there is no need for Carlton to pay overs to facilitate that.

 

[Mostyn]

Adelaide are the ones who want Phillipou in your scenario, so there is no need for Carlton to pay overs to facilitate that.

If Adelaide wanted Phillipou THAT much, they would have kept pick 5.

Adelaide knows what an early pick next year is worth. They can't leave the 2023 first round completly, but Carlton might do 11 this year and maybe 14 next year for 5 and 22 next year?

That seems like Carlton is getting good value in a vastly better draft.

 

[hawkinoz]

Adelaide are the ones who want Phillipou in your scenario, so there is no need for Carlton to pay overs to facilitate that.

Would blues be willing to swap this pick 49 with Hawks pick 48, can't trade 48 back to lions as it was trade in on Gunners deal.

or we need to see if crows want to swap their 46+56( 525 pts) for 48+52(548 pts)

 

[citizen-erased]

I was just trying to help essendon move up the board this year, get ahead of a davey bid.
I don't think they can any other way if nobody wants to trade down ( even Cal Twomey is saying that, not just big footy posters).

I think there is scope to trade down as I think there is a fairly even field from 10-25. so if a club can get a 2 for 1 deal and Essendon can do the same by getting ahead of Alwyn's bid, then it becomes mutually beneficial.

really comes down to who's on the board, who those clubs want & whether they can still get one of their targets a few picks later.

for the Dons, it will also come down to when we think he'll be bid on. Every chance it's after 22.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think there is scope to trade down as I think there is a fairly even field from 10-25. so if a club can get a 2 for 1 deal and Essendon can do the same by getting ahead of Alwyn's bid, then it becomes mutually beneficial.

really comes down to who's on the board, who those clubs want & whether they can still get one of their targets a few picks later.

for the Dons, it will also come down to when we think he'll be bid on. Every chance it's after 22.

You dont have a clear top 13? (Excl Ashcroft)

Cadman
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Tsatas
Phillipou
Ginbey
Humphrey
J.Clark
C.Mckenzie
O.Hollands
E.Hewett
Jefferson
Busslinger

 

[danster168]

What would people offer the dees for pick 13 if we wanted a future pick/s?

 

[citizen-erased]

You dont have a clear top 13? (Excl Ashcroft)

Cadman
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Tsatas
Phillipou
Ginbey
Humphrey
J.Clark
C.Mckenzie
O.Hollands
E.Hewett
Jefferson
Busslinger

its a fair point, but I also think you need to look at who has picks and what their needs are
i.e. Dogs and Hayes, GWS seem keen on Konstanty, Allen looks to have his fans, as does Hotton.
plus George is really slipping imo.

 

[citizen-erased]

What would people offer the dees for pick 13 if we wanted a future pick/s?

22 & F2?
Yours is the pick I'd target first. Think the list is well setup to slide back a touch this year for the cost of additional pick next year.

Dons likely finish the same, so it's 22 & 22~ for 13.
We get ahead of Davey as I don't see any bid that early.

 

[FB19]

What would people offer the dees for pick 13 if we wanted a future pick/s?

You have 2 firsts and 2 seconds you greedy…..

 

[danster168]

22 & F2?
Yours is the pick I'd target first. Think the list is well setup to slide back a touch this year for the cost of additional pick next year.

Dons likely finish the same, so it's 22 & 22~ for 13.
We get ahead of Davey as I don't see any bid that early.

That's a crazy low offer. You're not going to get a first without giving up a first. You generally pay slightly overs for getting the player into your system 1 year earlier. I'd suggest 13 and dees F3 for essendons f1

 

[Keystone agony]

its a fair point, but I also think you need to look at who has picks and what their needs are
i.e. Dogs and Hayes, GWS seem keen on Konstanty, Allen looks to have his fans, as does Hotton.
plus George is really slipping imo.

Yeh every side seems to fall in love with their player i suppose. Its never just Twomeys top X amount for everyone

Im not sold dogs absolutely go for a key position defender it might depend whos available. Busslinger and hayes vs which mids