If the Dees don't make the eight is it a failure?

[jdz101]

Well maybe they can make the 8 and hope to make a grand final from there. didn't they get him for free? Besides the salary, I don't see the downside

Yep freebie quality veterans are always good. I'm just reading some of the posts in here and they were implying that he was there purely as a leader for the young guys and that they got him for that purpose. I think that's being slightly conservative. They would have gotten him due to him being dirt cheap, and also because he's a footballer that will immediately slot into their team and want to play finals. The experience and leadership is a bonus.

 

[DemonTim]

Yep freebie quality veterans are always good. I'm just reading some of the posts in here and they were implying that he was there purely as a leader for the young guys and that they got him for that purpose. I think that's being slightly conservative. They would have gotten him due to him being dirt cheap, and also because he's a footballer that will immediately slot into their team and want to play finals. The experience and leadership is a bonus.

Spot on.

 

[Mofra]

A few examples? One of the examples listed was the dogs, and their best 22 was 3rd on average. I'd say generally looking at experience of a team is a reasonable indicator of success.

Generally, but not always.
I'm not sure which "best 22" they are using, but we had less experience in games played in many of the games last year we actually won, just checking the finals series:

GF: 82.1 games, 24yrs 5 mths vs Swans 113.6 games 25 yrs 7 mths
PF: 82.1 games 24 yrs 4 mths vs GWS 103.7 games 24 yrs 11 mths
EF: 84.0 games 24yrs 7 mths vs Hawks 155.5 games 27 yrs 5 mths
QF: 84.0 games 24yrs 8 mths vs WCE 119.2 games 26 yrs 5 mths

GWS were less experienced than many of their opponents last year as well but were clearly the 3rd best team last year (although having a billion AFL handouts & first rounder obviously helps).

 

[Topkent]

You're averaging the experience of 22 players. Even taking out the two most experienced at the hawks you're still looking at an average of 110. The 'outliers' aren't high enough to drag it up drastically like you'd suggest.

People just don't get averages at all.

What a dumb argument to say you can just remove 2 250 gamers
I'll take Nick Riewoldt and Matthew Boyd/Dale Morris in our starting 22 next year which then yeah we would be near certain to play finals

 

[DemonTim]

Generally, but not always.
I'm not sure which "best 22" they are using, but we had less experience in games played in many of the games last year we actually won, just checking the finals series:

GF: 82.1 games, 24yrs 5 mths vs Swans 113.6 games 25 yrs 7 mths
PF: 82.1 games 24 yrs 4 mths vs GWS 103.7 games 24 yrs 11 mths
EF: 84.0 games 24yrs 7 mths vs Hawks 155.5 games 27 yrs 5 mths
QF: 84.0 games 24yrs 8 mths vs WCE 119.2 games 26 yrs 5 mths

GWS were less experienced than many of their opponents last year as well but were clearly the 3rd best team last year (although having a billion AFL handouts & first rounder obviously helps).

So generally it's a pretty good indicator? That's all I was suggesting, not saying it's perfect. It's definitely useful when looking at the extremes i'd say. The top of the list seem to be the big successes recently (except west coast) and the bottom seems to be the teams struggling for success.

 

[DemonTim]

What a dumb argument to say you can just remove 2 250 gamers
I'll take Nick Riewoldt and Matthew Boyd/Matthew Boyd in our starting 22 next year which then yeah we would be best certain to play finals

I'm not sure why it was even suggested in the first place. Take the top 2 games played out of any club and of course it will drop. Not enough to take them from top to bottom as they suggested

 

[Mofra]

So generally it's a pretty good indicator? That's all I was suggesting, not saying it's perfect. It's definitely useful when looking at the extremes i'd say. The top of the list seem to be the big successes recently (except west coast) and the bottom seems to be the teams struggling for success.

I think it often can be a good indicator, although hearing coaches speak there seems to be a big push towards the "not letting age / experience be an excuse" and my point is just assuming a team will perform based on age and experience can be folly, as shown by the age / experience in the games I listed where we were well behind our opponent but won.

I wouldn't write off many teams in 2017 based on experience, still like the way the Dees are shaping up and St Kilda look a monty to take the next step too.

North will be an interesting one to watch - lost a heap of experience but were one of the bottom 3 teams in the competition over the second half of the year on results.

 

[DemonTim]

I think it often can be a good indicator, although hearing coaches speak there seems to be a big push towards the "not letting age / experience be an excuse" and my point is just assuming a team will perform based on age and experience can be folly, as shown by the age / experience in the games I listed where we were well behind our opponent but won.

I wouldn't write off many teams in 2017 based on experience, still like the way the Dees are shaping up and St Kilda look a monty to take the next step too.

North will be an interesting one to watch - lost a heap of experience but were one of the bottom 3 teams in the competition over the second half of the year on results.

What was their average experience in that period though? Didn't they have a few key injuries in that time?

Coaches shouldn't use anything as an excuse IMO, it comes off as looking weak in pressers.

I don't think it should be assumed to be 100% accurate, just a good indicator. Seems idiots like David King are the only ones who use it as gospel.

 

[juss]

They've been building and improving for a while, I think they are ready to make finals and that should definitely be the aim in 2017, missing them would be extremely disappointing.

 

[Milanista28]

In the middle who is going to cut you up with their kicking skills? They have a great inside brigade but not sure they have outside class yet.

Hunt and Hibberd are good kicks especially Hibberd he's very attacking but good defensively as well. Do they need a Gaff on the outside? Or a Pendlebury brain with hurt factor with his kick on the inside/out?

Salem looked the part early hows he tracking?

Watts would be their best kick yes?

 

[Demonated]

In the middle who is going to cut you up with their kicking skills? They have a great inside brigade but not sure they have outside class yet.

Hunt and Hibberd are good kicks especially Hibberd he's very attacking but good defensively as well. Do they need a Gaff on the outside? Or a Pendlebury brain with hurt factor with his kick on the inside/out?

Salem looked the part early hows he tracking?

Watts would be their best kick yes?

Spot on that foot skills are our weakness through the middle. We seem to have a bunch of inside mids with ok foot skills at best. Salem if he goes into the midfield will help but hasn't had any continuity due to thyroid issues. Hunt may find himself on a wing soon which will help with speed.

Watts is easily our best kick, some may try to tell you Salem is but Watts is as good as anyone at hitting a target going into attack. He plays predominantly forward now so we will have to find efficient ways of moving the ball through the middle.

 

[nameless]

Well, you'd be wrong.

Here are the experience (average games played) rankings of each team's best 22 as listed on the AFL website.

1. West Coast - 133

2. Hawthorn - 127

3. Bulldogs - 112

4. GWS - 110

5. Sydney - 107

6. Collingwood - 107

7. North - 106

8. St Kilda - 102

9. Fremantle - 100

10. Geelong - 100

11. Adelaide - 97

12. Port - 97

13. Richmond - 96

14. Essendon - 90

15. Gold Coast - 88

16. Carlton - 88

17. Melbourne - 85

18. Brisbane - 74

He's not completely wrong given your avg. age would be 24.5 - 25 years for that 'best 22' (depending on whether you have Weiderman or Pederson at CHF)
Age-wise you are in a great place, with a few guys being older who just haven't played a lot of games.

eg. Hibberd @ 27 with 84 games
Jetta @ 27 with 94 games
Pederson (borderline best 22) @ 30 with 61 games
Vince @ 32 with 193 games is low for someone of that age

But really, Jetta is the only guy there who would be in your top few players IMO
Luckily the demons don't rely on the older Jones in midfield, but his leadership is still huge, and will be assisted by Lewis.
Guys like Oliver, Hogan, Brayshaw etc are young and already look good.
Along with Mcdonald x 2 in defence you have a good setup across the field.

Generally across each line you have a good mix of youth and experience.

But really I don't take too much notice of age/games played ladders, as 'best 22s' don't exist and things can change quickly year on year in terms of list turnover.
Just looking at the demons' list in comparison to others and where they finished last year, plus the acquisitions they got this year, should see them be a finals team.
Anything other than that would be a failure - not a huge failure, but the expectation must be finals now.

 

[Topkent]

In the middle who is going to cut you up with their kicking skills? They have a great inside brigade but not sure they have outside class yet.

Hunt and Hibberd are good kicks especially Hibberd he's very attacking but good defensively as well. Do they need a Gaff on the outside? Or a Pendlebury brain with hurt factor with his kick on the inside/out?

Salem looked the part early hows he tracking?

Watts would be their best kick yes?

Hunts not actually a good kick, penetrating yes but in terms of AFL standard I wouldn't classify him as a good kick

Watts, Salem, Hibberd, Vince, Jones and Lewis are our best kicks
Jones is underrated in this aspect I rate him our 3rd best behind Lewis and Watts
Kent is hit and miss, can hit a beauty and then shank it. Melksham is also a beautiful kick but inconsistent
Pettacca and Brayshaw have both shown the ability to be highly damaging kicks.. Brayshaw being dual sided
Oliver weights his kicks beautifully as well but is more inside, Stretch weights his kicks beautifully but is a short kicker like Caleb Daniel

Speed of movement is just as important as actual foots kills

 

[Trav 20]

Sam Weideman is about 6 months of being ready to play the role you're suggesting, Pederson will be the first starter for that role by the way.

I agree with all of your recent posts save this one point.

While you're correct in saying that Weideman is a baby in footy terms, they will want to get as many games into him as possible, and he showed in his first game against Hawthorn that with a preseason under his belt he'll be serviceable in 2017.

Make no mistake, the reason Oscar McDonald got games this year ahead of Dunn was Goodwin, not Roos. I was told this was going to happen two months before the season started and that it was due to Goodwin. He'll be doing something similar in 2017 at the expense of Pedersen. Pedersen will get games, but I expect Weideman to be given the nod ahead of him in the early going. Note: I haven't been told the last bit, just my gut feel.

 

[coniglio_number1]

I agree with all of your recent posts save this one point.

While you're correct in saying that Weideman is a baby in footy terms, they will want to get as many games into him as possible, and he showed in his first game against Hawthorn that with a preseason under his belt he'll be serviceable in 2017.

Make no mistake, the reason Oscar McDonald got games this year ahead of Dunn was Goodwin, not Roos. I was told this was going to happen two months before the season started and that it was due to Goodwin. He'll be doing something similar in 2017 at the expense of Pedersen. Pedersen will get games, but I expect Weideman to be given the nod ahead of him in the early going. Note: I haven't been told the last bit, just my gut feel.

I expect hogan, weid and watts to be the three pronged attack in your forward line

 

[DemonTim]

I agree with all of your recent posts save this one point.

While you're correct in saying that Weideman is a baby in footy terms, they will want to get as many games into him as possible, and he showed in his first game against Hawthorn that with a preseason under his belt he'll be serviceable in 2017.

Make no mistake, the reason Oscar McDonald got games this year ahead of Dunn was Goodwin, not Roos. I was told this was going to happen two months before the season started and that it was due to Goodwin. He'll be doing something similar in 2017 at the expense of Pedersen. Pedersen will get games, but I expect Weideman to be given the nod ahead of him in the early going. Note: I haven't been told the last bit, just my gut feel.

O mac got the nod ahead of Dunn after about 5 rounds, when Dunn put in an insipid performance against the saints, he wasn't coming back after that game

My 6 months off in relation to Weideman was in terms of him playing his role effectively, not in terms of him getting a game. I imagine they will start the year with Pederson, then bring Weideman in after a few VFL games. He will be on and off with Pedo depending on how he is holding up body wise.

 

[Trav 20]

O mac got the nod ahead of Dunn after about 5 rounds, when Dunn put in an insipid performance against the saints, he wasn't coming back after that game

My 6 months off in relation to Weideman was in terms of him playing his role effectively, not in terms of him getting a game. I imagine they will start the year with Pederson, then bring Weideman in after a few VFL games. He will be on and off with Pedo depending on how he is holding up body wise.

No, the information I was given was accurate. Dunn knew he was on the outer, which is why Oscar was preferred in round 1. He injured his ankle in that game and missed round 2 (Dunn came in for him). He came back via Casey before getting back into the ones a month later.

Dunn was on the nose the entire preseason.

Believe what you want, but my information is 100%.

I also expect Weideman to be preferred to Pedersen for the same reasons. They want games into him.

 

[DemonTim]

No, the information I was given was accurate. Dunn knew he was on the outer, which is why Oscar was preferred in round 1. He injured his ankle in that game and missed round 2 (Dunn came in for him). He came back via Casey before getting back into the ones a month later.

Dunn was on the nose the entire preseason.

Believe what you want, but my information is 100%.

I also expect Weideman to be preferred to Pedersen for the same reasons. They want games into him.

He missed one week with the ankle and didn't come back until the brisbane game (round 9). He had put together a month of solid form at casey prior to that. Dunn was dropped in round 6 after the saints game, in which his performance was questioned by everyone and was clearly angry on field at teammates.
Him and Oscar played 2 weeks together at casey. Melbourne definitely had a youth policy last year, but your info definitely isn't 100%. Oscar got a lot of feedback about what needed improvement while at the scorps

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I wouldn't say it would be a failure. It would certainly be disappointing you would imagine. They are at a point where they should be pushing for a spot, but it's very tight from 7th to 12th. A few results swung either way and the ladder jumps around a bit in those spots.
You'd want them to be within a game or two of the 8 coming into the tail end of the season.
It's not like it's the end of their chances if they just miss out again.

 

[Trav 20]

He missed one week with the ankle and didn't come back until the brisbane game (round 9). He had put together a month of solid form at casey prior to that. Dunn was dropped in round 6 after the saints game, in which his performance was questioned by everyone and was clearly angry on field at teammates.
Him and Oscar played 2 weeks together at casey. Melbourne definitely had a youth policy last year, but your info definitely isn't 100%. Oscar got a lot of feedback about what needed improvement while at the scorps

Look mate, I know what I know and can't be bothered arguing with someone who doesn't know what I know.

Dunn wasn't picked for round 1 and McDonald was preferred. Dunn wasn't picked in round 2 even when Oscar was injured. And yes, Dunn then got 4 games in a row.

He was on the nose the entire preseason and was overlooked in rounds 1 and 2. Goodwin favoured Oscar. It doesn't mean Oscar was a walk up start, as evidenced by him playing in the VFL after his ankle injury, but my mail that he was preferred to Dunn was correct, which is why Dunn played the first two games in the VFL.

Even Jay Clark mentioned it preseason. This when everyone thought Dunn would be a walk up start.

"McDonald, 20, also continued his excellent preseason, taking several strong grabs in defence, and could edge out Lynden Dunn for a Round 1 guernsey."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...h/news-story/8c5fb375c6009f2d7abc84740316977c

 

[DemonTim]

Look mate, I know what I know and can't be bothered arguing with someone who doesn't know what I know.

Dunn wasn't picked for round 1 and McDonald was preferred. Dunn wasn't picked in round 2 even when Oscar was injured. And yes, Dunn then got 4 games in a row.

He was on the nose the entire preseason and was overlooked in rounds 1 and 2. Goodwin favoured Oscar. It doesn't mean Oscar was a walk up start, as evidenced by him playing in the VFL after his ankle injury, but my mail that he was preferred to Dunn was correct, which is why Dunn played the first two games in the VFL.

Even Jay Clark mentioned it preseason. This when everyone thought Dunn would be a walk up start.

"McDonald, 20, also continued his excellent preseason, taking several strong grabs in defence, and could edge out Lynden Dunn for a Round 1 guernsey."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...h/news-story/8c5fb375c6009f2d7abc84740316977c

It took Dunn putting in a garbage performance before he got dropped, and that didn't even get Oscar into the side.

Surely from posting on the Melbourne board you'd be reasonable enough to trust what I say in relation to Melbourne and casey. I've put my source up. Oscar got given a lot to work on at casey. It's why it took him to round 9 to get back into Melbourne. He had 4 solid weeks at casey when their defence was at its best before he'd shown he had taken on what was asked of him.

I'd be surprised if what you're saying about Roos is true based on that, and the fact that Roos spent a hell of a lot of time down at casey during the year.

From memory a lot had Oscar in round 1 side.

 

[Trav 20]

It took Dunn putting in a garbage performance before he got dropped, and that didn't even get Oscar into the side.

Surely from posting on the Melbourne board you'd be reasonable enough to trust what I say in relation to Melbourne and casey. I've put my source up. Oscar got given a lot to work on at casey. It's why it took him to round 9 to get back into Melbourne. He had 4 solid weeks at casey when their defence was at its best before he'd shown he had taken on what was asked of him.

I'd be surprised if what you're saying about Roos is true based on that, and the fact that Roos spent a hell of a lot of time down at casey during the year.

From memory a lot had Oscar in round 1 side.

I don't make things up, Champ. I was told many weeks before round 1 that Dunn was on the nose and that Goodwin liked Oscar.

Why do you think Dunn wasn't picked for rounds 1 and 2; and why do you think Oscar was picked round 1 ?

Once McDonald's form didn't warrant selection OBVIOUSLY he had to work on stuff at Casey. BUT he was preferred during the preseason, which is WHY he was preferred in round one while Dunn was running around at Casey.

it's not hard ...

 

[DemonTim]

I don't make things up, Champ. I was told many weeks before round 1 that Dunn was on the nose and that Goodwin liked Oscar.

Why do you think Dunn wasn't picked for rounds 1 and 2; and why do you think Oscar was picked round 1 ?

Once McDonald's form didn't warrant selection OBVIOUSLY he had to work on stuff at Casey. BUT he was preferred during the preseason, which is WHY he was preferred in round one while Dunn was running around at Casey.

it's not hard ...

So o Mac got one game ahead of Dunn? Round 1. The rest was judged on form, yes?

You can say you don't make up stuff that's fine, but when it directly goes against things I know I don't have to agree. Especially when my source is public and yours is "I know what I know"

 

[lewdogs]

Probably the biggest question mark over the Dees at the moment is how Goodwin will go. He's a new coach, we've seen that new coaches can start out successfully, or it may take some time to get the gameplan, players on board etc.

It's hard to make finals nowadays, even 12 wins doesnt get you there! With that in mind I don't think it'd be a fail per se, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do miss to be honest. What they will really be looking for is getting 22-odd games into their young mids to set them up for a big tilt 2018 onwards.

 

[Trav 20]

So o Mac got one game ahead of Dunn? Round 1. The rest was judged on form, yes?

You can say you don't make up stuff that's fine, but when it directly goes against things I know I don't have to agree. Especially when my source is public and yours is "I know what I know"

I said he was preferred well out from round one and that I got wind of it weeks before the season opener. And sure enough he plays round one, as alluded to by Jay Clark, who also was told by a club insider and wrote about it prior to round one.

Why do you think Dunn played in the VFL in rounds 1 AND 2. Here's a guy, who is in the leadership group, who has played well over 100 games over a decade and he's been overlooked for a two-gamer. He plays VFL footy in the first two games after having completed a full preseason. That doesn't strike you as odd ? And he goes on to play ONLY 4 games for the season. Are you starting to get a feel that he's on the nose ? Wonder why he was traded.

The information I received during the preseason was OBVIOUSLY correct. Needless to say (or it should be) that only gets you so far. From then on form dictates promotion or continuation.

Sorry bloke, but I don't have time for a table tennis match. Believe what you want.