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Analysis Inexperience watch

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Someone in another thread compared us to GWS, so while watching the clock tick towards 5 I thought I would compare the Round 7 Lions vs the Round 7 GWS. The results are surprising (or maybe not)...

GWS
Total Games 970 / 22 = ~ 44 games per
Total Goals 488
0 – 10 2
10 – 25 5
25 – 50 11
50 – 100 2
100 – 150 1
150 – 200 1
200+ 0

Average Age 23
Teenagers 1
20-22 17
23-24 1
25-26 2
27-28 1
29-30 0
30+ 0

Brisbane Lions
Total Games 1,380 / 22 = ~ 63 games per
Total Goals 533
0 – 10 5
10 – 25 3
25 – 50 4
50 – 100 4
100 – 150 3
150 – 200 3
200+ 0
Average Age 22.8
Teenagers 7
20-22 4
23-24 3
25-26 3
27-28 3
29-30 2
30+ 0

It's a sad reality that both starting 22s haven't combined to kick as many games as Browny (586) in his entire career to date. Both teams are very young but the Lions are running out 7 teenagers against GWS' Josh Kelly (at pick #2). The Suns had 2. And I couldn't be bothered making myself sad by seeing how many first rounders are both onfield and in the wings.

I'm especially envious that three seasons those million or so 20-22 year olds will be pushing 100 games. Wow that will be scary.

The moral is, whether we like it or not, we're a bunch of kids, and our so-called 'senior' players either aren't standing up or not on the park through injury, form or the dreaded coach's decision...

The good news; the kids should (and have been so far) get better with every game, and the 'old' guys aren't too old to write off yet. They should improve too. If not, then I guess we'll be even younger next year.
 
Stuff it, I am going to vent in this thread. I am actually very disappointed this week with our selection; with the Club's supporter pretty close to the depths of despair and a Hall of Fame game coming up I thought we would bite the bullet and inject just a bit more experience to give us at least some hope of being competitive.

Does Leppa actually believe playing so many kids is not impacting on the performance of the players around them? Does he really believe they are all deserving of a game? Surely he couldn't have been actually watching the same game I was last week because there is no way a couple of them deserve to be in the side - and I don't mind naming them either. Gardiner was a long way off the pace / his fitness looked so poor that he could not give repeat efforts (like Browny except with no upside) - and although he did a few nice things against the Saints - it is unfathomable to me that he is still in the side. Cutler also, while a great prospect, is simply being carried at the moment when we have no one left to do the carrying.

No way this is a Club that could be leaving Harwood, Moloney (even with a niggle) on the sidelines; not sure even Bewick or Golby should be out of the team despite there so-so form.

My overall philosophy if I was coach would be to make sure the team is at least fairly competitive first and foremost and that would mean basically ensuring you played a maximum of 6-7 players with less than 25 games experience and a maximum of 10 with less than 50 games experience. Beyond that, not only are you likely to kill the Club's morale, I am not sure simply pumping games into kids that are playing in a team getting thrashed is the fastest way to get them to develop into the players we need them to be. I mean we are talking about a team that has only won 3 out of 28 quarters, which is a shocking 7 quarters behind the next worse in the AFL - which just goes to show why OUR supporters need a little bit of hope right about now.

Anyway, with that rant out of the way here are the stats for round 8 - Lions vs. Essendon at the Gabba:
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 6 vs. Bombers 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Bombers 6
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Bombers 0
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 3 vs. Bombers 9
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Bombers 3
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Bombers 4
So I think the key stat this week is that the Lions have 12 players with less than 50 games experience compared to just 6 for the Bombers. Something the stats don't show is that Sam Mayes has just played his 25th game so has gone up a category; also the Bombers have 5 players playing with between 80-100 games experience to our 2.

Overall I think it will be very hard for us to be competitive given the experience gap. Not impossible given it is at home, but pretty unlikely all the same (perhaps a 1 in 6 chance at the absolute best).
 
Thankfully we ended up being very competitive last week, although watching the game live it seemed to have a lot to do with the example set by Adcock and Rocky, both of whom were magnificent.

This week I think my concerns are more likely to be born out. We are playing away from home, at a stadium where we have a record of 2 wins and 8 losses in the last 10, with an average losing margin of 54 points (if I am remembering the article on the Lions website from earlier in the week correctly).

We will also face the largest gap in experience compared to our opposition that we have faced all year. I will be going to the game, but I will be crossing my fingers that we don't get smashed.

Round 9 - Lions vs. North at Etihad
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 5 vs. North 3)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 9 vs. North 3
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. North 3
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 3 vs. North 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. North 7
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. North 3
The difference in experience in the 0-24 games category (with the Lions having 6 more very inexperienced players) is the largest it has been all year, as is the difference of players with 0-49 games experience given the Lions will have 13 and North just 6.
 

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This is such a great, analytical thread. It is all about probability and lends itself to a dispassionate analysis of each week's game.

But what is great about footy is that I could go to the game and watch 22 blokes give absolutely everything and nearly pinch a win, despite all of the odds stacked against them. It was easy to look at this thread before the Essendon game and think "we're no hope". But watching the game, it was clear that one side was absolutely throwing themselves at the contest and genuinely believed it was in the game. I was incredibly proud of last week's performance because it showed the club has spirit.

The great thing about footy is that there's always a chance and, even if the probability is low, you can still walk into the ground on game day holding out the slimmest hope that the unexpected will happen. A superior attitude and intent can always even the ledger.

Spirit can't be measured and certainly can't be predicted but, when you watch a game, you can certainly see it.
 
POBT said:
A superior attitude and intent can always even the ledger.

Spirit can't be measured and certainly can't be predicted but, when you watch a game, you can certainly see it.
Click to expand...
I'm as big a proponent of data and analytics as anybody here, but I certainly agree with you here. On the bolded, we saw plenty of evidence of that during our comeback matches over the last 2.5 years. We seem to have lost some of that this year, but last week we saw some of it again.
 
Anyone smart enough to compare the averages to last year?

From a quick look it looks we have 2 or 3 more under 25 games per match this season.
 
POBT said:
This is such a great, analytical thread. It is all about probability and lends itself to a dispassionate analysis of each week's game.

But what is great about footy is that I could go to the game and watch 22 blokes give absolutely everything and nearly pinch a win, despite all of the odds stacked against them. It was easy to look at this thread before the Essendon game and think "we're no hope". But watching the game, it was clear that one side was absolutely throwing themselves at the contest and genuinely believed it was in the game. I was incredibly proud of last week's performance because it showed the club has spirit.

The great thing about footy is that there's always a chance and, even if the probability is low, you can still walk into the ground on game day holding out the slimmest hope that the unexpected will happen. A superior attitude and intent can always even the ledger.

Spirit can't be measured and certainly can't be predicted but, when you watch a game, you can certainly see it.
Click to expand...

Yeah good post POBT.

No matter the difference in experience between the two teams there is usually still a not insignficant chance of being competitive on any given day.

Last week I thought we were about a 1/6 chance, this week I think it is more like 1/10 - but that doesn't take into account the countless things we don't witness each week leading leading into game day that are likely to transfer into intensity at the contest.
 
POBT said:
This is such a great, analytical thread. It is all about probability and lends itself to a dispassionate analysis of each week's game.

But what is great about footy is that I could go to the game and watch 22 blokes give absolutely everything and nearly pinch a win, despite all of the odds stacked against them. It was easy to look at this thread before the Essendon game and think "we're no hope". But watching the game, it was clear that one side was absolutely throwing themselves at the contest and genuinely believed it was in the game. I was incredibly proud of last week's performance because it showed the club has spirit.

The great thing about footy is that there's always a chance and, even if the probability is low, you can still walk into the ground on game day holding out the slimmest hope that the unexpected will happen. A superior attitude and intent can always even the ledger.

Spirit can't be measured and certainly can't be predicted but, when you watch a game, you can certainly see it.
Click to expand...

Haso said:
I'm as big a proponent of data and analytics as anybody here, but I certainly agree with you here. On the bolded, we saw plenty of evidence of that during our comeback matches over the last 2.5 years. We seem to have lost some of that this year, but last week we saw some of it again.
Click to expand...

While it will never bear out over a full season, the old adage that anyone can beat anyone, surely can only be bourne out of spirit and attitude.

You cant help but believe its the reason some clubs simply rise over others. Hell its probably the over hyped "bloods" culture at the Swans.. its that intangible thing of confidence, belief and trust between players and friends rolled into one word - spirit.

Statistics can show a lot of things. And while some of them can be speculative, others are stark reminders of things that simply take time to overcome - like age and experience. It is frightening to see the gaps in our list when they are laid out so clearly.

But what they dont show is that Lewwy Taylor isnt supposed to be bold enough to run through packs yet.
Or that Gardiner isn't supposed to bump off his opponents so deftly yet.
Or that Aish and Mayes could continue to add polish and skill to a team that should posses more of it yet.
Or that Cutler should be as composed under pressure yet.
Or that Pap's should be able to withstand the physical side of the game so well yet.

I'm not kidding myself or suggesting success for our team is weeks or even months away.

But personally I put a lot of faith in the idea that a team can be more than the sum of its parts. That a culture that instills spirit and belief will always be instrumental in progressing the boys into men far faster than one that doesn't.

Port is the perfect example. And before people start pointing to the "talent" Port have dont you think they would be doing that to us too when we win a few games like last year? The opinions of "experts" are nearly always correct after the fact... not many predicted Ports rise at all.

It's why I think we have lost nothing and gained everything with regards the go home 5. If those players had remained, and been poisonous to the club then their talent alone wouldn't have covered the damage.

The new guys have started a journey. With a clean slate and no baggage. They have changed the dynamic of the club and the way it operates just by their arrival alone. We are better as a organization, better as a group and arguably better as a team.
 
jackess said:
Anyone smart enough to compare the averages to last year?

From a quick look it looks we have 2 or 3 more under 25 games per match this season.
Click to expand...

Just went back and did the averages from the start of this thread back at the start of 2012:

So, Lions players selected in the seniors with less than 25 games experience
- in 2012 we had an average of 7.14 such players each week
- in 2013 that was down to an average of 5.32 very inexperienced players each week
- in 2014 it is back up to 8 (although if you exclude the first 3 rounds of this year then the average is 8.67)

So yeah your hunch seems pretty spot on
 

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With the late changes...

Last of the Roys said:
Round 9 - Lions vs. North at Etihad
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 5 7 vs. North 3)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 9 11 vs. North 3
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. North 3 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 3 2 vs. North 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 4 vs. North 7 8
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. North 3
The difference in experience in the 0-24 games category (with the Lions having 6 8 more very inexperienced players) is the largest it has been all year, as is the difference of players with 0-49 games experience given the Lions will have 13 15 and North just 6 5.
Click to expand...

Jeebus.
 
Age would be a good as well. We have Raines, Merrett and Browny as our only players over 26 I'd guess
 
Yeah with the late changes we ended up having 11 players with less than 25 games experience and 15 out of 22 with less than 50 games experience.

Surely the youngest / least experienced senior Brisbane Lions side to ever play for premiership points.
 
Time for an update,

Round 11 - Lions vs. Carlton at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 1)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Blues 5
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Blues 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 3 vs. Blues 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Blues 8
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Blues 1
While we are a fair bit better off than last week, we are still no doubt a very inexperienced side with 13 players with less than 50 games experience compared to just 7 for Carlton (last week it was 15 to 5).

At home we are more of a chance to be competitive, but the experience gap is still probably too big for us to overcome.
 

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Last of the Roys said:
Time for an update,

Round 11 - Lions vs. Carlton at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 1)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Blues 5
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Blues 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 3 vs. Blues 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Blues 8
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Blues 1
While we are a fair bit better off than last week, we are still no doubt a very inexperienced side with 13 players with less than 50 games experience compared to just 7 for Carlton (last week it was 15 to 5).

At home we are more of a chance to be competitive, but the experience gap is still probably too big for us to overcome.
Click to expand...
Nicely done. I wonder what the impact the bye will have on the energy levels of the young guys. With any luck it will bridge the experience gap between the teams slightly.
 
Lionheart182 said:
Nicely done. I wonder what the impact the bye will have on the energy levels of the young guys. With any luck it will bridge the experience gap between the teams slightly.
Click to expand...

Armfield is a huge out for them, Walker is always a difficult match up and they have a lot of bruised and battered warriors from last week. We are a huge chance.
 
Round 12 - Lions vs. Bulldogs at Etihad
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Dogs 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Dogs 5
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Dogs 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 4 vs. Dogs 7
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Dogs 5
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Dogs 3
Overall I am a bit suprised at how old / experienced the Bulldogs are (they have 4 players playing with more than 190 games experience to our 1). At the bottom end, while we have reduced our inexperience, again it is still a pretty big defict with 12 players with less than 50 games experience against 7 for the Bulldogs.

I think it is 50:50 in terms of whether we will be very competitive or not given the relative experience levels and the fact it is an away game. I would have liked to have seen one more experienced player back in our side to make sure of a good showing (Raines for Gardiner for instance, with Golby playing in the backline).

In terms of individual Lions players game tallies - Clarke will play his 25th game, so will move up a category next week; Aish and Taylor have already played their 10th game; and Harwood (45), Golby (47) and Zorko (48) are all closing in on 50 games.
 
Last edited:
Dylan12 said:
Not sure how Last of the Roys calculates the games, but perhaps because it is Aish and Taylor's 11th game that's why he has elevated them to the next bracket...just spit balling.
Click to expand...
Yep. That could be it.
 
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