Opinion Is there a fairer way to count flags?

[Foley#41]

Just count flags from the modern era* and decide the best team that way.








*since 2015

 

[Dusty0004]

Only one that matters is the last one. History is great and all but really how many people are reveling in a flag won in the 1920s?
At worst only count the ones you were alive for

 

[Del65166]

Total flags for all the clubs that have been in it for 100 years is probably as fair as you can make it. No doubt now is the hardest time to win flags but meh.

Whats harder is considering the teams like Port who played in other comps.

Every 5 years the sport pretty much evolves beyond recognition. Throw in concessions now days to zoning way back...the whole thing is a mess really lol
Too hard for me to make any sense of. It is what it is, it was what it was.

history knows when the competition became the AFL. History knows when each new club joined or was relocated. Good luck to the original clubs for getting the competition Up and running. You win a flag against the competition available. It's a win in my book. Unfortunately we have never been in the position to benefit from new, weak clubs.

RFC was a basket case for the early days of the national competition. Eagles forked out $4mill. for the licence. Pretty much saved the competition. The Eagles have managed the air travel well and been very successful. Dockers on the other hand have not quite it right. Port Adelaide were very good for a while. The wheels have fallen off a bit and with ex player Cornes loving controversy all sorts of options get aired. The MCG and home ground advantage. RFC hasn't been able to win a final there since the 1980s, North beat us there in 2015. We couldn't win a final anywhere. if I'm not mistaken, the last final we won in was in the 80s. So social media looks at our playing venues as a reason for our good winning football. AFL is committed to the G as the GF venue well into the future. So that's going to be a permanent excuse/whinge point. The draw is an issue that will never be resolved. The critics of our recent flags being against interstate clubs fail to acknowledge the evenness of the competition, and how well interstate clubs are doing. In 2017 Adelaide should have won it. They were the best team that year. Look at GFs over the last 3 years, 2 MCG tenants 3 non tenants. With one tenant winning and a non tenant winning. The home ground crowd factor dimishes on GF day as so many neutrals are in the crowd. But the home ground factor is really there for us in the earlier finals. In 2017 the prelim crowd was psycho. Mostly cheering but a fair bit of booing. Which is not my style. But it was a point of complaint Bya Cat's fan in that final. The tiger army. Our 23rd player. The social media complaint about our success is fuel for the fire. what our interstate opponents gain is the experience of playing against us or the pies or other MCG tenants. The Eagles game was close. Brisbane I can't remember.
Our draw is different this year. More travel late in the season.

 

[Del65166]

Only one that matters is the last one. History is great and all but really how many people are reveling in a flag won in the 1920s?
May worst only count the ones you were alive for

Spot on about the only one that matters. I'd actually say, the only one that matters is the next one. I'm scarred by the 37 Year drought. And scared of ever going back there. We couldn't win a final until 3 years ago. I am happy for the club to be winning regularly. Playing great football. And being left field. And having a group of supporters who love how the club is going on and off the field. Flags are the ultimate aim and I hope we win a couple more with the current list. The patters are interesting. 2017, & 2019 we use 37 players and win. 2018, less injury less players used, but unfortunately less confidence in the likes of Lloyd, Miles, Garth as depth. KPD depth is still an issue. I hope the coaches reward VFL from and use as much depth as possible. I DO NOT WANT TO BE SELECTING UNFIT PLAYERS. Surely this is seated into Dimmas brain too.
When the Dimma era ends we may be out of contention for a while. So, win while the stars are aligning for your team.

 

[Dusty0004]

Spot on about the only one that matters. I'd actually say, the only one that matters is the next one. I'm scarred by the 37 Year drought. And scared of ever going back there. We couldn't win a final until 3 years ago. I am happy for the club to be winning regularly. Playing great football. And being left field. And having a group of supporters who love how the club is going on and off the field. Flags are the ultimate aim and I hope we win a couple more with the current list. The patters are interesting. 2017, & 2019 we use 37 players and win. 2018, less injury less players used, but unfortunately less confidence in the likes of Lloyd, Miles, Garth as depth. KPD depth is still an issue. I hope the coaches reward VFL from and use as much depth as possible. I DO NOT WANT TO BE SELECTING UNFIT PLAYERS. Surely this is seated into Dimmas brain too.
When the Dimma era ends we may be out of contention for a while. So, win while the stars are aligning for your team.

That’s right keep striking

 

[Mr Magic]

It's the time of the year that Carlton and Essendon supporters will use any excuse they can think of to remind all other supporters that 'their' club has won more VFL/AFL flags than any other.
And Collingwood supporters will then quickly remind everyone that they have 'almost' won the same number of flags.
While Hawthorn supporters will happily ignore all such discussions, 'knowing' that their team has comfortably won the most number of flags in the 'modern' era (whatever that is).
But the rest of us know that the whole idea of simply counting flags to demonstrate superiority is bogus.
The reason is obvious.
Only eight clubs have had a chance to win every flag since the league commenced its first season in 1897.
Even our club didn't get a go until 1908.
And the Hawks, Dogs and Roos didn't enter till 1925.
As for the expansion teams...

So, what is a fairer way to count flags?
(I apologise in advance if this has been proposed before.)
I nominate a 'head-to-head' flag table.
The idea is counting the number of flags each team has won compared to each other of the 17 other sides in the time that both teams have played in the league. (Brisbane is a special case. More of that later.)
The resulting totals will mean that a club has either won more flags than a rival, fewer, or the same number.
Critically, then a flag 'table' can be calculated using 'wins', 'losses', and draws to allocate a place on the flag ladder.
It's important to note that individual flag totals are not added, only one point for a head-to-head win, loss or draw against another team.
(Otherwise the same bogus advantage applies.)


For example,

Carlton entered the comp in 1987.
Since that time, according to my calculations, it has won more flags than its opponent (in the joint playing period) 10 times, lost 4, and drawn 3 times.
Interestingly, that places it only fifth on the 'head-to-head' table.
Essendon also entered in 1897, winning 10, losing 3, and drawing four against all comers - placing it fourth.
Collingwood (1897) is sixth (10 wins, 5 losses, 2 draws.)
Number one is a no brainer.
Hawthorn (1925) rules with 17 wins, 0 losses and 0 draws.
But number two might surprise.
It's WCE (1987) with 16 wins, 1 loss (yes, Hawthorn) and 0 draws.
(But has bugger all chance of overtaking Hawthorn for several years.)
Poor old St. Kilda is stone motherless last, yes, last, because it has won no flags since the expansion teams emerged (and has a worse loss record than even Fremantle).
But the truly gratifying thing as a Richmond supporter, was that (contrary to my expectations when I first thought about the system) was that the Tigers are THIRD with 11 wins, 5 losses and 1 draw.

Okay, a couple of caveats.
Firstly, my arithmetic can be crap.
I've triple checked my calculations, but that is no guarantee that I have got them right.
Secondly, my formulation assumes that Brisbane is a relocated side (as Sydney actually is), when in fact it's a merger of the Bears and Fitzoy. However, since neither club won a flag in the period they both competed in the league (and the Brisbane Lions emphasize their descent from Fitzroy, 7 flags), it seems a harmless assumption to me. (Others might disagree, especially Swans supporters.)
Thirdly, before Tiger fans get too high and mighty, remember that the system is highly fluid.
One flag can change things completely for us.
For example, Essendon sit on 4 draws.
One flag this year and they shoot up to 15 wins!
(We sit on 1 draw only.)
And if GWS (12 draws) win this year (much more likely) they shoot up to 13 wins (third place)!

So, is it fairer?
I'd argue it is takes into account the key factor, the opportunity to win flags.
And let's face it, the Hawks and Eagles have been powerhouses for a very long time, including the franchise era, which the system recognises.
But I'm sure that there are Carlton supporters who are going to take umbrage...(good).

ps. I've done all the calcs for all the teams, but don't have a clue how to do a spreadsheet. If anyone is especially interested I will post the full results when I get the time (it won't look pretty).

You only count flags when you get on top.

We have a long way to go before we need to count flags.

I just saw a reply of last years GF, which never gets old, but really the margin flattered us because of a number of passengers for GWS and the way they played against us fell into our hands. We will not get it that easy next time thats for sure!!

We can not afford to be arrogant enough to be thinking about counting flags otherwise we could end up waiting 40 years or more for the next one!!!

When people start overrating our team that's when fall on our faces!! Some are getting carried away saying Richmond has a embarrassment of riches at its disposal in the player department despite losing Rance and Ellis

 

[Del65166]

You only count flags when you get on top.

We have a long way to go before we need to count flags.

I just saw a reply of last years GF, which never gets old, but really the margin flattered us because of a number of passengers for GWS and the way they played against us fell into our hands. We will not get it that easy next time thats for sure!!

We can not afford to be arrogant enough to be thinking about counting flags otherwise we could end up waiting 40 years or more for the next one!!!

When people start overrating our team that's when fall on our faces!! Some are getting carried away saying Richmond has a embarrassment of riches at its disposal in the player department despite losing Rance and Ellis

I don't know about an embarrassment of riches in the depth department. But I suppose if you look at the fact we won the VFL GF. We have ruck depth, KPF depth. Midfield depth. Now a lot of the depth doesn't have much AFL experience that's the question mark for me. But if we can get our 25 > 30 best. RCD, CJ, Naish,Egg, Garth, Chol up to 10 games. As well as squeezing Graham, Stack, Ross, Higgins Balta into the 22. Then I will be happy. That way if half the list came down with corona virus, we would be competitive.
We won a flag without Rance. Balta and Garth and even Miller are coming on. Losing Ellis? I don't think he was guaranteed a game if he stayed. Had a good career with us. But Kmac knows the running patterns and wasn't far off another premiership medal himself.

 

[Dusty0004]

You only count flags when you get on top.

We have a long way to go before we need to count flags.

I just saw a reply of last years GF, which never gets old, but really the margin flattered us because of a number of passengers for GWS and the way they played against us fell into our hands. We will not get it that easy next time thats for sure!!

We can not afford to be arrogant enough to be thinking about counting flags otherwise we could end up waiting 40 years or more for the next one!!!

When people start overrating our team that's when fall on our faces!! Some are getting carried away saying Richmond has a embarrassment of riches at its disposal in the player department despite losing Rance and Ellis

****ing oath you can get carried away. We are on top now and it won’t last forever. You enjoy the times when you are up they will disappear quick enough and then you’ll have memories and regrets that you didn’t enjoy it. It doesn’t have to be a constant wallow. You only fall back into counting flags when it’s been way to long since your last because it’s the only thing that gives you relevance in the current age. Hence the Bombers and Carlton getting all defensive about.

 

[Mr Magic]

******* oath you can get carried away. We are on top now and it won’t last forever. You enjoy the times when you are up they will disappear quick enough and then you’ll have memories and regrets that you didn’t enjoy it. It doesn’t have to be a constant wallow. You only fall back into counting flags when it’s been way to long since your last because it’s the only thing that gives you relevance in the current age. Hence the Bombers and Carlton getting all defensive about.

But thats just it, we are not on top now.

We won the premiership last year many months away and it was thoroughly enjoyable and I still enjoy watching the replay.

However, this is a new season with a new team against new opposition and new challenges. We have reason to be confident but no reason to believe we are on top!!

It is not about wallowing its about not getting ahead of ourselves.

If a Bomber and Carlton supporters gives you shit you should say, fair call, we have a lot of work to do but we are pleasantly kicking goals at the moment!!

I am happy just to think a few months ago we won the premiership quite convincingly that others are trying to bring us down now more than ever.

Look Dusty played a pretty bloody good game on the day, Marlon was good as a first gamer, they will sound him out this year for weaknesses, we will have to improve.

We should not be focusing on counts rather how we are going to win the next one and capitalise on the supposed strength we may have at the moment and leave no stone unturned to capture another premiership or two or more!!!

I would be saying to Essendon and Carlton supporters we cannot afford to be counting premierships, we are living in the moment and want a lot more!!!

I am not getting carried away, I am unrelenting when it comes to winning premierships. I am never satisfied, I always want to win the next one!!!

You know what I think?? You count premierships when its over!!! I do not believe its over with is group. Some may retire in time but I think the youngsters have a lot to look forward to and strive for!!!

 

[PUNTROADMAFIA]

So in 50 years time, 2019 flag will mean nothing??

 

[JR82]

How successful a Club depends on who you ask. For Cats fans the beginning of time was '07, Hawks fans live in thier era still thinking it's alive. A Pies fan on twitter thinks we are no good at all (don't they all). The past is great but it has no bearing on what happens this yr.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How successful a Club depends on who you ask. For Cats fans the beginning of time was '07, Hawks fans live in thier era still thinking it's alive. A Pies fan on twitter thinks we are no good at all (don't they all). The past is great but it has no bearing on what happens this yr.

I think the fairest and best way to look at this right now is the classic 4 step approach.

1. Take the last 100 seasons. Nice round number, fair sample size, eliminates the least relevant seasons. You start from:

Fraudthorn 13
Richmond Messendon 12
Melbourne Carltoon 11
Filth 10

2. Then you eliminate everyone who did not earn their way into the top tier by winning a premiership or even playing in a Grand Final at any level before entering, because they straight out should not be there, you get:

Richmond Messendon 12
Melbourne Carltoon 11
Filth 10

3. Then you eliminate any club penalised for wholesale drug cheating, you get:

1. Richmond 12
2. Melbourne Carltoon 11
3. Filth 10

4. Then you adjust for salary cap cheating you get:

1. Richmond 12
2. Melbourne 11
=3. Carltoon 10 Filth 10.

Lovely recipe. Looks about right to me.