Analysis i've got a high tolerance for essendon being s**t, but this game was appalling

[Maxabillions]

I feel your pain, however, we’re very early in (this) rebuild and hopefully Bewick might be our JHF/Rozee game breaker type


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

How far away is he?

 

[ant555]

How far away is he?

3 years I think.

 

[Maxabillions]

3 years I think.

15 then, old enough for Timmy W. Bring him in!

 

[Don_Gia]

Pretty sure our soft tissue injuries were minimal in the 2012 season. Been pretty crappy since then. We should get those fitness & medical staff back.

I remember this season reasonably well…we were flying…top 2 (thereabouts) after 11 rounds and then we came up against Hawthorn and got belted I think…the soft tissues started from then and we lost like 8 or something from the second half of the season.

I remember the media saying we were pushed too hard in pre-season blah blah…then early Feb 2013 Presser with Hird, Hamilton and Evans…I knew a Presser called that early in the year something was up…the rest is history…

I read this thread and I feel comfort that I hold the same views as everyone here, but then I’m like “are we really back here again?!”…

Apparently “bad luck” the 2016 draft was shallow at the top, the 2020 draft was Covid impacted…and we had a top-4 list in 2012…is it bad luck or bad management?

 

[MiguelM]

I feel your pain, however, we’re very early in (this) rebuild and hopefully Bewick might be our JHF/Rozee game breaker type


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Son of Darren?

Saw Bewick's whole career, what a player.

 

[jannissary]

while i certainly didn't expect us to do anything special this year, i did expect better performances than this game. swings and roundabouts i suppose

 

[MiguelM]

15 then, old enough for Timmy W. Bring him in!

Was at Timmy's first game, kid in the crowd.

Still incredible

 

[jannissary]

My favorite season of the last decade was the year the players were suspended, the guys who played showed more heart than anything since. A young Parish looked unreal in the mid field but was then set back years being played out of position, we found out AMT was an absolute star at afl level. We have held onto senior spuds that keep us just finishing mid table and offer SFA to the future of the club and rarely see the best of what we’ve drafted. Instead of having a crack we are in an endless purgatory

was that the year we beat collingwood in the final round of the season? and melbourne somewhere in the middle

 

[eth-dog]

was that the year we beat collingwood in the final round of the season? and melbourne somewhere in the middle

Melbourne round 2, GC and Carlton late.

 

[Squeaky]

My favorite season of the last decade was the year the players were suspended, the guys who played showed more heart than anything since. A young Parish looked unreal in the mid field but was then set back years being played out of position, we found out AMT was an absolute star at afl level. We have held onto senior spuds that keep us just finishing mid table and offer SFA to the future of the club and rarely see the best of what we’ve drafted. Instead of having a crack we are in an endless purgatory

In 2016 we played with heart. Those guys gave us everything they had. The 3 wins were magic. Then when it was over we thought it would be over. But here we are, 8 years on, still 'recovering'. This has been one, huge cluster ****.

 

[Shanghaistu]

In 2016 we played with heart. Those guys gave us everything they had. The 3 wins were magic. Then when it was over we thought it would be over. But here we are, 8 years on, still 'recovering'. This has been one, huge cluster *.

Yep, that season really felt like the bottom of the cycle and optimism for the future…. Here we are 3 coaches later and still a mile behind the rest of the competition in every aspect of the game on-and off-field

 

[fairbump_playon]

It really is possible it could take us 20 years to win a flag. 2044. Let that sink in.

I hope Scott gets at least 5 years. If he is gone before then, we are definitely 20 years away, because it will be evidence that we are just gonna do the same win-now crap over and over.

Even to think it's soonish, I imagine that only 10 or so of the current list will still on the list when we win.

We will exit at least 15 more players by the end of 2025. In reality that could be before we have even returned to finals.

2026 finals? Maybe win one? Still at that stage 3 more preseasons away at best. 2030 flag? Look at Brisbane. We would be lucky if it's that close.

 

[windyhill]

Was at Timmy's first game, kid in the crowd.

Still incredible

Draw v tigers !

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Yep, that season really felt like the bottom of the cycle and optimism for the future…. Here we are 3 coaches later and still a mile behind the rest of the competition in every aspect of the game on-and off-field

It was all going well until we over-achieved in 2017 and thought yep, this it it. Funnily enough it was the optimism that killed us, we should have walked away from that Sydney elimination final knowing we were miles off building a system that could match up to other well-drilled sides but instead we thought we were just a few players away. Whenever the structured game plan got to hard we simplified it back to the point of freewheeling and basically squandered 2018 and 2019. 2020 the club imploded, 2021 was the dead cat bounce and 2022 was when reality caught up to us so really we've only been on this path for a year and a half.

You really have to wonder what might have been if we sat the remaining 34 down and said "we're now a rebuilding club, do you still want to be here?", collected what few picks we could and went hard at the 2016/17/18 drafts with a fresh leadership group. I suspect we'd be in a better spot by now. But we chose to keep our pride and now we are where we are.

 

[BomberManU]

Was said at the time that it would take 10 years to recover from 'the saga', I certainly didn't think it would take that long, but here we are.

 

[EnolaGay]

Son of Darren?

Saw Bewick's whole career, what a player.

[mention]eDPS [/mention] can give you some insight to the potential of Bewick Jnr, looks promising


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[sameolds33]

I remember this season reasonably well…we were flying…top 2 (thereabouts) after 11 rounds and then we came up against Hawthorn and got belted I think…the soft tissues started from then and we lost like 8 or something from the second half of the season.

I remember the media saying we were pushed too hard in pre-season blah blah…then early Feb 2013 Presser with Hird, Hamilton and Evans…I knew a Presser called that early in the year something was up…the rest is history…

I read this thread and I feel comfort that I hold the same views as everyone here, but then I’m like “are we really back here again?!”…

Apparently “bad luck” the 2016 draft was shallow at the top, the 2020 draft was Covid impacted…and we had a top-4 list in 2012…is it bad luck or bad management?

We did have a top 4 list in 2012. We were where we expected to be at the half way mark of that season. A generation of players since. When I think back the only people standing up for the players in public were Hird and Bruce Reid. The AFL administration, even more than the EFC's, to blame for the stop/start recovery and the rebuild/restructure that followed the WADA decision. The loss of first round draft picks for example had a huge effect on recruitment.

 

[Corleone]

 

[Rick Ross]

Apologies if I triggered something here… I was going for sarcastic referring to 2012. Sarcasm doesn’t always translate in written word.

2012 was not a year to revisit for positive learnings. Too much happened for it to be a credible reference point.

Pretty sure our soft tissue injuries were minimal in the 2012 season. Been pretty crappy since then. We should get those fitness & medical staff back.

 

[Squeaky]

Apologies if I triggered something here… I was going for sarcastic referring to 2012. Sarcasm doesn’t always translate in written word.

2012 was not a year to revisit for positive learnings. Too much happened for it to be a credible reference point.

And I believe it was incorrect as we did have a spate of soft tissue injuries at one point during that season - I remember Hibberd may have been the first to ping a hammy on a short turnaround after or prior to Anzac Day. It may have been Anzac Day that he did it.

 

[Milanista28]

There are a lot of us who tipped us to win 9 or 10 games so you are not in rare company.

I'm not really talking about the W/L column, it's how we lose, Scott will point to stats that say it wasn't a lack of effort, there is effort and then there is fight, we continually give up the fight and just play out the game.

I genuinely think we have way too many players on our list that drop their heads when it gets tough, and it's players on long term deals, can they change?

 

[ant555]

I'm not really talking about the W/L column, it's how we lose, Scott will point to stats that say it wasn't a lack of effort, there is effort and then there is fight, we continually give up the fight and just play out the game.

I genuinely think we have way too many players on our list that drop their heads when it gets tough, and it's players on long term deals, can they change?

That is why I tipped 10 wins and have said it will take 5 plus years. Lots of players to be turned over and not just the usual whipping boys .

 

[JayJ20]

I'm not really talking about the W/L column, it's how we lose, Scott will point to stats that say it wasn't a lack of effort, there is effort and then there is fight, we continually give up the fight and just play out the game.

I genuinely think we have way too many players on our list that drop their heads when it gets tough, and it's players on long term deals, can they change?

This exactly. 10 goals + losses are an almost guarantee every year for Essendon for 20 years regardless of where we finish on the ladder yet sides like Carlton and Collingwood even in their down years rarely lose above 35 points.

Losing to Port by 69 points is simply unacceptable even factoring in list quality. For our list, the maximum margin should be 40-45 points (I'm being generous) and that should be a rare occurrence. We should be losing by the margins Adelaide have lost by this year and last year. They've only lost above 26 points 3 times (32 points vs Richmond early last year, 35 points vs Fremantle away this year and 45 points vs Bulldogs in Ballarat last year). There's no reason why we should be that much worse in containing losses than Adelaide. The list is not at West Coast and North's level.

I posted the following comparison before:

I looked at some comparisons of big margins between Essendon and Carlton over the last 5 seasons. I'll also add Collingwood who were average in 2021 and 2022 for comparison to see how the reigning premiers fared in the lead up to a premiership.

Carlton losses above 36 points

2020: (11th with a record of 7-10)
No losses above 31 points

2021: (13th with a record of 8-14)
95 points away vs Port
39 points vs North Melbourne

2022: (9th with a record of 12-10)
No losses above 35 points

2023: (5th with a record of 13-1-9)
56 points away vs Adelaide

Collingwood losses above 36 points

2020 (8th with a record of 9-1-8)
Melbourne 56 points at the Gabba
West Coast 66 points away
Geelong 68 points at the Gabba

2021 (17th with a record of 6-16)
38 points to Essendon (dead rubber game)
85 points to Brisbane away

2022 (4th with a record of 16-6)
48 points to Bulldogs

2023 (1st with a record of 18-5)
No losses above 33 points

Meanwhile, Essendon played finals during that time.

Essendon losses above 36 points

2020 (13th with a record of 6-1-10)
42 points vs Bulldogs
50 points away vs Port
63 points vs Brisbane
66 points vs Geelong

2021 (finals - 8th with a record of 11-11)
39 points vs Richmond
41 points vs Geelong
49 points vs Bulldogs (EF)
54 points vs Port away
57 points vs Brisbane away

2022 (15th with a record of 7-15)
48 points vs Fremantle
58 points vs Sydney away
66 points vs Geelong
66 points vs Richmond
84 points vs Port

2023 (11th with a record of 11-12)
41 points vs Bulldogs
42 points vs Brisbane away
70 points vs Collingwood
77 points vs Geelong
126 points vs GWS

Let's go back to 2019 when we played finals and Carlton were bottom 4 bad.

Carlton losses above 35 points (16th with a record of 7-15):
41 points vs Essendon
58 points vs North Melbourne
68 points vs Geelong
93 points vs GWS

Essendon losses above 35 points (played finals and finished 8th with a record of 12-10):
55 points vs West Coast (EF)
59 points vs Port
72 points vs GWS away
104 points vs Bulldogs

Why does a bottom 4 side with 5 more losses have less severe losses than a top 8 side? Carlton's PF finish and Collingwood's premiership wasn't surprising to anyone paying attention to how they were losing. Also, how Essendon finished the year wasn't surprising either to anyone paying attention to how Essendon lose.

Look at AFL tables and this has been happening every single year since 2001.

 

[sameolds33]

Apologies if I triggered something here… I was going for sarcastic referring to 2012. Sarcasm doesn’t always translate in written word.

2012 was not a year to revisit for positive learnings. Too much happened for it to be a credible reference point.

Not triggered but your comment did cause me to consider why it is we are where we are in an historical context. There's a lot that's been said about the quality of the list and why our skills are where they are.

Where it leaves us, i think, is to vent and move on.

That instead of wanting to burn the place down after a bad loss we think positive: that the club is strong because the administrators and board managed to rebuild it from an unprecedented damaging low, that the list is capable and the skills can be learned, that the coaches know what they're doing, that leadership requires trust.

And to accept that the fan base is resilient. We gnash our teeth and throw up our arms and want to throw the baby out with the bathwater but in the end most of us come back next week with hope that things will be different. Hope is both a wonderful and a terrible thing.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Was said at the time that it would take 10 years to recover from 'the saga', I certainly didn't think it would take that long, but here we are.

we havent recovered, thats the sad part.