The truth is no-one knows what will happen with Polec's injury. But the risk appetite is different for him, Port and North.
For Polec, he would be worried about breaking down at any time. For him breaking down means the end of his earning potential as a player. As I said above, the incentive there is for him to front-load as much of the contract as possible, wherever he plays. His biggest risk is requesting a trade but the clubs not being able to work one out and going into the draft. If that happens, he has less chance to mitigate his injury-earning risk.
For Port, worst case scenario is losing him before R1 next year, while having him locked into a long-term contract. If that happens, Port takes a large salary cap hit and loses one of its outside runners. On the other hand, if it loses Polec due to a better offer from elsewhere, it can mitigate that damage through drafting or trading, even if a trade to North doesn't happen.
For North, they know they need something to help them take the next step. Their worst-case scenario risk is the same as Port's. But the hope is that they get a five-year player who helps them get back in contention. Out of the three parties, they have the most to gain out of the transaction, so they need to take the risk. They also need the trade to happen for the risk to pay off.
Out of these, I think Port has the most reason to be the most risk adverse (Polec can hedge better than the clubs). That would lead to its contract offers. They can't really offer a large salary-long term contract.
For Polec, he would be worried about breaking down at any time. For him breaking down means the end of his earning potential as a player. As I said above, the incentive there is for him to front-load as much of the contract as possible, wherever he plays. His biggest risk is requesting a trade but the clubs not being able to work one out and going into the draft. If that happens, he has less chance to mitigate his injury-earning risk.
For Port, worst case scenario is losing him before R1 next year, while having him locked into a long-term contract. If that happens, Port takes a large salary cap hit and loses one of its outside runners. On the other hand, if it loses Polec due to a better offer from elsewhere, it can mitigate that damage through drafting or trading, even if a trade to North doesn't happen.
For North, they know they need something to help them take the next step. Their worst-case scenario risk is the same as Port's. But the hope is that they get a five-year player who helps them get back in contention. Out of the three parties, they have the most to gain out of the transaction, so they need to take the risk. They also need the trade to happen for the risk to pay off.
Out of these, I think Port has the most reason to be the most risk adverse (Polec can hedge better than the clubs). That would lead to its contract offers. They can't really offer a large salary-long term contract.
