Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[chaosball32]

In what world is Adelaide in Adelaide "very winnable"? At best it's 40-60. Collingwood is also 60-40 at best. The rest are definitely very winnable but that's a tough assessment designed to make it hard to live up to.

How are they not very winnable? I’d say we’d be favourites in all of those except the Adelaide game which is 50-50, hence “very winnable”. Winnable doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.

If you’re asking about Adelaide specifically, I don’t rate them as highly as last year. Think they were exposed in the finals, they don’t have the midfield to go with the best, it’s essentially Dawson or bust.

Adelaide in Adelaide is also not the fortress you’re making it out to be, they’ve lost their last 3 games there, and their last win there before that was by 3 points.

 

[chaosball32]

Not at all. I listen to the Fox shows and they were drooling over Melbournes performance.

Come on now. St Kilda were never one of the flag faves, at least not in the opinion of anyone who matters. Think most people had them on the rise, as expected with all the players they bought in, but most people have them in that 7-10 wildcard round area. Hardly a contender.

It was a good win but Melbourne are still a bottom half team. As I said, this next 5 game stretch is massive for us. If we can win all 5, which is not unthinkable, it sets up our season really nicely.

 

[The Lobbster]

How are they not very winnable? I’d say we’d be favourites in all of those except the Adelaide game which is 50-50, hence “very winnable”. Winnable doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.

If you’re asking about Adelaide specifically, I don’t rate them as highly as last year. Think they were exposed in the finals, they don’t have the midfield to go with the best, it’s essentially Dawson or bust.

Adelaide in Adelaide is also not the fortress you’re making it out to be, they’ve lost their last 3 games there, and their last win there before that was by 3 points.

Squiggle compiles a whole bunch of predictive programs and has
Adelaide 60:40 Fremantle
Collingwood 50:50 Fremantle

I.e. favourites in neither

Power ranking wise it has
Adelaide 6th
Fremantle 8th
Collingwood 9th

So it’s not like it doesn’t rate us compared to either team.

 

[chaosball32]

Squiggle compiles a whole bunch of predictive programs and has
Adelaide 60:40 Fremantle
Collingwood 50:50 Fremantle

I.e. favourites in neither

Power ranking wise it has
Adelaide 6th
Fremantle 8th
Collingwood 9th

So it’s not like it doesn’t rate us compared to either team.

As of right now I’d say it’s Adelaide 50:50 Fremantle, and Collingwood 40:60 Fremantle, but obviously that’s just my opinion and subject to change based on results over the coming weeks.

As for Collingwood I’d say they are on a decline, we are on an incline, and if we could get the job done at the MCG last year then we have a solid chance at a neutral ground. Like Adelaide with Dawson, they can be very Daicos or bust, I think whilst we don’t have a single player we can rely on, we have a better spread of players who can have game-winning impacts.

I’m just saying we could come out of this stretch 6-1. When I say winnable I’m not saying we are definitely going to win all 5.

 

[King Tenz]

Easty...Get a grip !
Your gonna sack a coach who finishes fifth out of 18?
Sorry , I got it.
Youre just taking the piss.

Yes. Yes I would Kent.

 

[anchor man]

Come on now. St Kilda were never one of the flag faves, at least not in the opinion of anyone who matters. Think most people had them on the rise, as expected with all the players they bought in, but most people have them in that 7-10 wildcard round area. Hardly a contender.

It was a good win but Melbourne are still a bottom half team. As I said, this next 5 game stretch is massive for us. If we can win all 5, which is not unthinkable, it sets up our season really nicely.

Only going by how the media "experts" from the East Coast were ravinf about the Saints and how good Melbourne were in beating them.
They were banking on their recruiting coups as making them successful. Saints that is.

 

[deputy]

A bit off topic but Listening to Ken Hinkley's comments on the weekend and he is very well articulated ,has a very good grasp of opposition players and can communicate his point very well.
Not having a go at JL But he struggles in this area.
Would Love Ken sitting in the Coaches box alongside Justin as a mentor

 

[GingerDocker]

A bit off topic but Listening to Ken Hinkley's comments on the weekend and he is very well articulated ,has a very good grasp of opposition players and can communicate his point very well.
Not having a go at JL But he struggles in this area.
Would Love Ken sitting in the Coaches box alongside Justin as a mentor

Any suggestion to ramp up the horsepower in the coaching department gets a thumbs up from me.

 

[PrancingPony]

A bit off topic but Listening to Ken Hinkley's comments on the weekend and he is very well articulated ,has a very good grasp of opposition players and can communicate his point very well.
Not having a go at JL But he struggles in this area.
Would Love Ken sitting in the Coaches box alongside Justin as a mentor

Let him pass down the aeroplane celebration to one of our players and I'm sold.

 

[clivenator26]

Let him pass down the aeroplane celebration to one of our players and I'm sold.

That’s taunting and will mean a fine!

 

[Quay Club]

Let him pass down the aeroplane celebration to one of our players and I'm sold.

Vossy would do the helicopter not the plane!

 

[anchor man]

I disagree as we only played 2 quarters of footy - we played very well in patches, whether that’s enough to beat the better sides, time will tell.
As you say, the test is Adelaide and Collingwood.

Are you really serious!! Or just another knocker that sees it easier to bag the team out than appreciate a win!!

 

[Kapow!!!]

Vossy would do the helicopter not the plane!

The G rated Helicopter or the R rated Helicopter?

 

[swanny1234]

Are you really serious!! Or just another knocker that sees it easier to bag the team out than appreciate a win!!

I’m serious, Melbourne are a bottom 6 side. I enjoyed the win but I’m allowed to critique the performance- we played really for for 2 out of the 4 quarters and that’s great, the other two were poor and I’d like to see us be more consistent if we’re going to challenge better teams.

 

[GingerDocker]

I’m serious, Melbourne are a bottom 6 side. I enjoyed the win but I’m allowed to critique the performance- we played really for for 2 out of the 4 quarters and that’s great, the other two were poor and I’d like to see us be more consistent if we’re going to challenge better teams.

Melbourne beat St Kilda
St Kilda beat GWS
GWS beat Hawks
Hawks beat Sydney
Sydney beat Brisbane

 

[anchor man]

I’m serious, Melbourne are a bottom 6 side. I enjoyed the win but I’m allowed to critique the performance- we played really for for 2 out of the 4 quarters and that’s great, the other two were poor and I’d like to see us be more consistent if we’re going to challenge better teams.

And we can feel free to critique your critique.
A seriously doubt the validity of some here.
Easier to find fault and bag out the team than look for the positives.
Plenty of good came out of this game. Much more good than bad.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I dont think we learnt much from the game tbh, like, we are a good team, even the naysayers agree but we arent trying to be a good team anymore, we are trying to be the best team. Beating up terrible sides at home doesn't give you much information on whether you are the best. Cant hang your hat on every win just like you cant doom every loss.

The most encouraging thing from the game was important key growth players (Bolton, Ras, Johnson, Dudley) backing up last week IMO.

 

[BREATHLESS_987]

I dont think we learnt much from the game tbh, like, we are a good team, even the naysayers agree but we arent trying to be a good team anymore, we are trying to be the best team. Beating up terrible sides at home doesn't give you much information on whether you are the best. Cant hang your hat on every win just like you cant doom every loss.

The most encouraging thing from the game was important key growth players (Bolton, Ras, Johnson, Dudley) backing up last week IMO.

Slight disagree - winning a game like that, without breaking a sweat, is still evidence of improvement. As sad as that sounds.

Compare to say, v North Melbourne at Optus last year, where we were behind in the final quarter, we snuck home, and the game was generally a dogs breakfast.

I definitely walked away from Saturday feeling better about our footy than for a lot of last year, despite the lacklustre opponent

Obviously need to see a bigger body of work before getting too enthusiastic

 

[Freomaniac]

On JLo, I've seen enough from other clubs to know that good recruitment isn't sufficient to build a good list, the players have to be nurtured and developed. There are some special players that will find a way to become something great regardless, but for everyone else there's a fair bit of luck in terms of the team and environment they end up in.

Interestingly one of the challenges he and the coaching team have is our defence is not humming, some of that is trying to be more offensive and some may be due to personnel challenges, but either way it doesn't feel like we have a top shelf defence at the moment in my view - which may be ok if it comes with broader benefits.

I won't deny some of the younger players have actually been developed well under Justin Longmuir.

But saying that, what hurt the club a fair bit in the short to medium term was what happened in 2022.

Yeah we made finals and won a final that year. But we lost 4 experienced players in our best 23.

Rory Lobb, Blake Acres, Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker were all traded.

None of them were irreplaceable. Lobb kicked 36 goals and led the goal kicking but he was double teamed which free up a teammate up forward.

Acres was solid be we already lost the likes of Stephen Hill, Brad hill and Ed Langdon.

Logue was interesting. We were stupid with the contract negotiations.

I don't know was was more crazy when it came to the Griffin Logue situation.

The fact we knew he was out of contract at the end of 2022, didn't give him a 2 year extension at the end of 2021 to make him a free agent at the end of 2024. Or the fact North Melbourne gave him a 5 year contract.

Darcy Tucker of all players I didn't mind keeping but wasn't gutted had he wanted to be traded.

I say those decisions in late 2022 played some certain reasons why dockers didn't make finals in 2023-24.

Overall the squad In 2025-6 is overall more better and experienced compared to 2021.

I never expected Freo to win a flag under Justin Longmuir.

But I did demand a small finals run of finals for 2 or 3 years in a row

 

[Freomaniac]

No matter what you may say about the quality of the current "JLo" bashing weariness I will say this: This board is a damned sight better to be on than final 3 years under Lyon. This was a truly hopeless place devoid of any real fun. Now, even though there's repetitiveness, there's depth and nuance and still a genuine feel of excitement if a little bit impatient.

Final 3 years under Ross Lyon was 2017, 2018 and 2019.

While most dockers fans were Miserable and frustrated under those last 3 years under Ross Lyon, I was the opposite.

I was very positive and upbeat in those 3 seasons, especially 2017 when we still finished 14th with 8 wins and 14 losses.

Mainly because it we had to tolerate that horror 2016 season when we went 0-10, and only got 4 wins that season. Those going 0-10 and those Owen jokes started to effect my mental health at the time.

That's the main reason why I enjoyed the 1st half of 2017 and 2018. We at least won 4 games by halfway through the season.

The club has come a long way from debating whether any of Shane Kersten, Scott Jones, Stefan Giro and Brandon Matera should be in the side.

I was the biggest Shane Kersten fan on this forum. 25 goals in 2017 wasn't bad.

I still would of believed he would of been a 30-35 goal a season forward had we persisted with him to play alongside the likes of Taberner, Jessie Hogan and Rory Lobb in 2019.

Brandon Matera kicked 30 goals one season didn't he?

Also the EPL having just the worst culture around managers/coaches often sacking within a year and never giving coaches a chance to settle and develop...I understand the angst (and share the hard earned impatience) but that's a terrible analogy as that particular competition/sport is not really comparable with AFL

I disagree with this. If you are in the EPL as a coach. You get a 2 or 3 year deal. You still get your full pay even if you get sacked.

You have to understand it's easier to sack a coach on 3 to 5 million pounds a year than to sell 3 or 6 players.

Just to stay in the EPL is like 80 to 100 million pounds alone.

Funny thing is my favourite managers In the EPL are the defensive heavy coaches like Sam Allardyce or Tony Pulis.

They won't win you trophies. But they get the best of a limited and average squad.

Those coaches aged 50-70 are always liked and chased. Sure some get sacked after one season or hang around the same club for 3-6 seasons. But they are valued due to experience

The closest we got to those coaches are Ross Lyon and Brad Scott.

 

[Raz]

Premiership or gone for Justin

Over 30 years of almost good enough

I don’t see it as all his fault but easiest change

 

[mattis117]

I won't deny some of the younger players have actually been developed well under Justin Longmuir.

But saying that, what hurt the club a fair bit in the short to medium term was what happened in 2022.

Yeah we made finals and won a final that year. But we lost 4 experienced players in our best 23.

Rory Lobb, Blake Acres, Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker were all traded.

None of them were irreplaceable. Lobb kicked 36 goals and led the goal kicking but he was double teamed which free up a teammate up forward.

Acres was solid be we already lost the likes of Stephen Hill, Brad hill and Ed Langdon.

Logue was interesting. We were stupid with the contract negotiations.

I don't know was was more crazy when it came to the Griffin Logue situation.

The fact we knew he was out of contract at the end of 2022, didn't give him a 2 year extension at the end of 2021 to make him a free agent at the end of 2024. Or the fact North Melbourne gave him a 5 year contract.

Darcy Tucker of all players I didn't mind keeping but wasn't gutted had he wanted to be traded.

I say those decisions in late 2022 played some certain reasons why dockers didn't make finals in 2023-24.

Overall the squad In 2025-6 is overall more better and experienced compared to 2021.

I never expected Freo to win a flag under Justin Longmuir.

But I did demand a small finals run of finals for 2 or 3 years in a row

We took 2 steps back to take 5 forwards. The right decisions were made on all counts. Those plodders keep you thinking you're close but you never get there. By giving them away we have given ourselves the chances that we have taken to find better replacements, even though in the short term it made us a worse side at the time.

Every one of those players has proven to be below the standard that we need for the ultimate success.

 

[Duz97]

You don’t win flags in march we don’t need to play perfect football now we need to win games of football. As long as we bank the wins and finish top 4/6 it’s fine then the new season starts in September.
Hawks 3 peat were never the best team in the regular season but they were in finals. That should be the goal just win enough games to finish top 4 doesn’t matter how you do it

 

[Freomaniac]

We took 2 steps back to take 5 forwards. The right decisions were made on all counts. Those plodders keep you thinking you're close but you never get there. By giving them away we have given ourselves the chances that we have taken to find better replacements, even though in the short term it made us a worse side at the time.

Every one of those players has proven to be below the standard that we need for the ultimate success.

Missing out of finals in 2023 and 2024 sucked.

But if that means we make finals every year from 2025 to 2028 or even. 2029 then it's fine.


I would love a grand final appearance with this playing list.

 

[Freomaniac]

You don’t win flags in march we don’t need to play perfect football now we need to win games of football. As long as we bank the wins and finish top 4/6 it’s fine then the new season starts in September.
Hawks 3 peat were never the best team in the regular season but they were in finals. That should be the goal just win enough games to finish top 4 doesn’t matter how you do it

Ummm.....

In 2012, hawks were top and lost the grand final.

In 2013, hawks were top with 19 wins and 3 losses after 22 games. Beat dockers In a grand final.

In 2014, swans were top, hawks were 2nd and cats were 3rd. All 3 had 17 wins and 5 losses
Dockers were 4th with 15 wins.

Swans, hawks both had percentage of 135 and cats had a percentage of 115.

Cats won 8 games by 12 points or less.

In 2015 hawks finished 3rd behind the wa clubs