Kiwi Hawk spreading wings

[Beandip]

I think we should temper expectation on the kid a bit.

It is an article by the club. Of course they are going to be full of praise and it is a pretty easy statement to make that he is potentially top 20 in next years draft - it is a HUGE tag to put on him 12 months ahead of the draft. I dont necessarily buy it.

I am going to reserve judgement on the kid until I have seen him on the ground with a football in play. From what I have seen of him in match simulation at training he still has a lot to learn about the game and is no certainty to make it regardless of how fast he can run 20m.

I dont doubt his promise and I am full of praise for the club for identifying him and getting him outside of the draft.

A reasonable and measured post RR, worried to see it here on the boards; but I think it's always better to be a bit pessimistic and potentially be pleasantly surprised rather than crushed later.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

I think we should temper expectation on the kid a bit.

It is an article by the club. Of course they are going to be full of praise and it is a pretty easy statement to make that he is potentially top 20 in next years draft - it is a HUGE tag to put on him 12 months ahead of the draft. I dont necessarily buy it.

I am going to reserve judgement on the kid until I have seen him on the ground with a football in play. From what I have seen of him in match simulation at training he still has a lot to learn about the game and is no certainty to make it regardless of how fast he can run 20m.

I dont doubt his promise and I am full of praise for the club for identifying him and getting him outside of the draft.

He's a future brownlow medalist alright!

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

It's interesting that many recruiters viewed Jed Anderson as a top 20 pick and already see Heatherly as one as well. It's nice to know that even though we haven't been able to draft a top 20 pick, our club has been creative enough to find opportunities to get a player of this calibre.

Really looking forward to seeing how Heatherly, Tim O'Brien, Jordan Kelly, Brad Hill, Alex Woodward and Jed Anderson develop over the next few years. I really see these six guys as key parts of our future and barring inujry, all 150 - 200 game players.

(no pressure, of course)

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I think we should temper expectation on the kid a bit.

It is an article by the club. Of course they are going to be full of praise and it is a pretty easy statement to make that he is potentially top 20 in next years draft - it is a HUGE tag to put on him 12 months ahead of the draft. I dont necessarily buy it.

I am going to reserve judgement on the kid until I have seen him on the ground with a football in play. From what I have seen of him in match simulation at training he still has a lot to learn about the game and is no certainty to make it regardless of how fast he can run 20m.

I dont doubt his promise and I am full of praise for the club for identifying him and getting him outside of the draft.

With Roughy, Hale, Buddy and Schoenmakers making up the bulk of outhe first playerr spine for quite a few years we can afford to nurse the kid through slowly.

It's kinda like those pre-season predictions where every team is rated as a top 8 (except from the expansions teams, Melbourne and Doggies). Anderson was rated as a top 20 pick but we'll never know, and it counts for nothing afterwards. O'Brien was rated as a top 20 (and Adelaide said they would have grabbed him at that pick) but the reality was the other 16 clubs didn't rate him higher than the midfield talent they were chasing.

Then there's Heatherly - again we won't see if he's really worth a top 20 pick, so it's just a number to throw out there and get people excited.

Having said that I think he'll win a Brownlow in his first year or two at the club.

 

[rokraida]

Having said that I think he'll win a Brownlow in his first year or two at the club.

and two norm smiths

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

We've done some pretty slick things in recent years.

Picking up Savage as an under-age player meant we got him at pick 70 something instead of needing a top 10-20 pick.
Picked up Jed Anderson in exchange for Gilham (wtf?).
Are now in a position to pick up Heatherly for free (in terms of draft picks), who is starting to look a decent prospect. (who said he was rated as a top 20 pick?)
Also managed to pull Luke Breust out of nowhere.

This is canny drafting that has been necessary, but excellent, and will hold us in good stead over the coming years.

Yeah but apart from striking gold in 2004 we stuffed up a fair few first rounders in the last few years.

 

[Brishawk]

Yeah but apart from striking gold in 2004 we stuffed up a fair few first rounders in the last few years.

Really? Since then these are our top 20 picks:

2005 3/4 still at club
Ellis (Premiership Player)
Dowler
Birchall (AA, Premiership Player)
Bailey

2006
Thorpe

2007
Rioli (AA, Premiership Player)

2008
Shoenmakers (GF Team)

2009
n/a

2010
Isaac Smith (GF Team)

2011
n/a

So basically every player we have drafted in the top 20 is on the list except Thorpe and Dowler. Of those on the list, only Bailey didn't make our GF team this year. How much better are you expecting it to get? They can't all be Lance Franklins and Jordan Lewis'.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Really? Since then these are our top 20 picks:

2005 3/4 still at club
Ellis (Premiership Player)
Dowler
Birchall (AA, Premiership Player)
Bailey

2006
Thorpe

2007
Rioli (AA, Premiership Player)

2008
Shoenmakers (GF Team)

2009
n/a

2010
Isaac Smith (GF Team)

2011
n/a

So basically every player we have drafted in the top 20 is on the list except Thorpe and Dowler. Of those on the list, only Bailey didn't make our GF team this year. How much better are you expecting it to get? They can't all be Lance Franklins and Jordan Lewis'.

In 2005 we had 5 picks in the first 22 and only one of those players is a regular 22 player, Birchall. People laugh at Richmond for doing the exact same thing in 2004 (only Delidio remains). 2006 was just as bad, we have no players from 2006 left on our list, we also had some good picks (6 and 24) plus a f/s by the name of Kennedy. Fair to say we f@cked it massively, in fact cost us a premiership.

Then in the last 6 years we have only used our first pick 3 times (for good results) however traded out 3 times. Hardly a big thumbs up, in fact it tells me that we are more willing to bank on established talent than back our own recruiting on earlier picks.

I am not trying to be overly critical on our recruiting, its great that Hawthorn are making use of others sources, international, NSW scholarships and rookies (Sewell, Suckling, Bruest?) however just trying to bring some balance to the discussion.

 

[PenAndPaper]

In 2005 we had 5 picks in the first 22 and only one of those players is a regular 22 player, Birchall. People laugh at Richmond for doing the exact same thing in 2004 (only Delidio remains). 2006 was just as bad, we have no players from 2006 left on our list, we also had some good picks (6 and 24) plus a f/s by the name of Kennedy. Fair to say we f@cked it massively, in fact cost us a premiership.

Then in the last 6 years we have only used our first pick 3 times (for good results) however traded out 3 times. Hardly a big thumbs up, in fact it tells me that we are more willing to bank on established talent than back our own recruiting on earlier picks.

I am not trying to be overly critical on our recruiting, its great that Hawthorn are making use of others sources, international, NSW scholarships and rookies (Sewell, Suckling, Bruest?) however just trying to bring some balance to the discussion.

I wouldn't say that it was because we didn't trust our own recruiting, it was to make up for the mistakes made on earlier picks in previous years to replace what should have been already established players.

Ellis and Bailey would both be first team regulars if they were fit, hardly the fault of recruiters for Eliis' inability to put on weight and that Bailey has had three knee reconstructions. That is where we differ completely from Richmond and their failed drafts where they picked players who just couldn't cut it.

 

[TeamPlayer23]

In 2005 we had 5 picks in the first 22 and only one of those players is a regular 22 player, Birchall. People laugh at Richmond for doing the exact same thing in 2004 (only Delidio remains). 2006 was just as bad, we have no players from 2006 left on our list, we also had some good picks (6 and 24) plus a f/s by the name of Kennedy. Fair to say we f@cked it massively, in fact cost us a premiership.

Then in the last 6 years we have only used our first pick 3 times (for good results) however traded out 3 times. Hardly a big thumbs up, in fact it tells me that we are more willing to bank on established talent than back our own recruiting on earlier picks.

I am not trying to be overly critical on our recruiting, its great that Hawthorn are making use of others sources, international, NSW scholarships and rookies (Sewell, Suckling, Bruest?) however just trying to bring some balance to the discussion.

All i can say is: Its amazing to see what a great job the Hawthorn club have done since 2004! Remember when in 2004 pre-season Hawthorn coach Peter Schwab declared that the Hawks would "win the premiership" only to have a horrific season as the Hawks managed just 4 wins and 18 losses.
In 2012, Hawthorn finished on top of the home and away season ladder with a record of 17–5, finishing as minor premiers for the first time since 1989..(And Should have won the GF)!!!!

But..we cant go back and change the past, so lets look to the future and try not to make the same mistakes twice. Sometimes we need to forget about some players that didn't make it or got 'traded' from our past because of one simple reason: THEY JUST DON'T BELONG IN OUR FUTURE SUCCESS!!!!!!

So Lets Forget the past and let's make our future unforgettable!!!!!!!

 

[Brishawk]

In 2005 we had 5 picks in the first 22 and only one of those players is a regular 22 player, Birchall. People laugh at Richmond for doing the exact same thing in 2004 (only Delidio remains). 2006 was just as bad, we have no players from 2006 left on our list, we also had some good picks (6 and 24) plus a f/s by the name of Kennedy. Fair to say we f@cked it massively, in fact cost us a premiership.

Then in the last 6 years we have only used our first pick 3 times (for good results) however traded out 3 times. Hardly a big thumbs up, in fact it tells me that we are more willing to bank on established talent than back our own recruiting on earlier picks.

I am not trying to be overly critical on our recruiting, its great that Hawthorn are making use of others sources, international, NSW scholarships and rookies (Sewell, Suckling, Bruest?) however just trying to bring some balance to the discussion.

Balance? Pretty slanted view actually. Firstly, you claimed we stuffed up "a fair few first rounders in the last few years". Clearly, that isn't the case. As of our last match, Ellis was in our best 22 available and was also in our best 22 in 2008 premiership. Sure he has had injury troubles but can you say anyone predicted this? Same with Bailey. Did we stuff his selection up because he had three knee recos on the back of zero knee issues prior to drafting? How about comparing our record against historical performance of other clubs? That would put our success and failures in PERSPECTIVE and would be a lot more BALANCED than a throw away remarked based on Dowler and Thorpe not making it and angst over Ellis' Bailey's durability.

As for bringing in drafted players outside the top 20 well given in 2006 we drafted Renouf and traded him away ( Premiership player in 2008 and still on AFL list) and we also have Suckling (played in GF 2012). We traded Kennedy away for less than he is worth now but we did manage to snare Stratton with that pick. We didn't actually have much of a choice there as you would know.

In 2007 we also drafted Whitecross and Dew (Premiership Player 2008). I think we can all agree that was a very successful draft.

2008 we drafted Sheils (GF 2012), Lisle (still on AFL list), Lowden (still on our list), Savage (GF 2012), and Bruest (GF 2012). We also drafted Suckling. Again, I'd say we did well in that draft.

2009 We traded our first pick for Gibson who has been close to AA twice. How is that a bad thing? We also took Grimely (still on list), Stratton (GF 2012) and Dureaya (still on our list) in that draft as well as promoting Suckling. Given our picks not too bad - Stratton is a gun but jury still out on the other two.

2010 Gets a lot harder to judge the lower draft picks from here on in but Poupolo has been pretty good for us over the last two years and Halahan is looking very promising. Managed to bring in Hale via trade who was very valuable.

2011 We brought in Gunston for our first round pick. Enough said?

2012 We brought in Lake for our first round pick plus upgraded our second round pick. Also managed to snare a likely top 20 pick in Anderson too.

So from a draft point of view I think we have done well. But from a list management point of view we have done extremely well. Only about 10 premiership players played in our 2012 GF defeat. That tells us we have successfully turned over more than half our best 22 in 4 years all done via drafting and trading completed after 2004. Tell me one other team who has done so and remained at the top end of the ladder for most of that period (played finals 3/4, top 4 2/4)? I call that amazing list management.

 

[TeamPlayer23]

Balance? Pretty slanted view actually. Firstly, you claimed we stuffed up "a fair few first rounders in the last few years". Clearly, that isn't the case. As of our last match, Ellis was in our best 22 available and was also in our best 22 in 2008 premiership. Sure he has had injury troubles but can you say anyone predicted this? Same with Bailey. Did we stuff his selection up because he had three knee recos on the back of zero knee issues prior to drafting? How about comparing our record against historical performance of other clubs? That would put our success and failures in PERSPECTIVE and would be a lot more BALANCED than a throw away remarked based on Dowler and Thorpe not making it and angst over Ellis' Bailey's durability.

As for bringing in drafted players outside the top 20 well given in 2006 we drafted Renouf and traded him away ( Premiership player in 2008 and still on AFL list) and we also have Suckling (played in GF 2012). We traded Kennedy away for less than he is worth now but we did manage to snare Stratton with that pick. We didn't actually have much of a choice there as you would know.

In 2007 we also drafted Whitecross and Dew (Premiership Player 2008). I think we can all agree that was a very successful draft.

2008 we drafted Sheils (GF 2012), Lisle (still on AFL list), Lowden (still on our list), Savage (GF 2012), and Bruest (GF 2012). We also drafted Suckling. Again, I'd say we did well in that draft.

2009 We traded our first pick for Gibson who has been close to AA twice. How is that a bad thing? We also took Grimely (still on list), Stratton (GF 2012) and Dureaya (still on our list) in that draft as well as promoting Suckling. Given our picks not too bad - Stratton is a gun but jury still out on the other two.

2010 Gets a lot harder to judge the lower draft picks from here on in but Poupolo has been pretty good for us over the last two years and Halahan is looking very promising. Managed to bring in Hale via trade who was very valuable.

2011 We brought in Gunston for our first round pick. Enough said?

2012 We brought in Lake for our first round pick plus upgraded our second round pick. Also managed to snare a likely top 20 pick in Anderson too.

So from a draft point of view I think we have done well. But from a list management point of view we have done extremely well. Only about 10 premiership players played in our 2012 GF defeat. That tells us we have successfully turned over more than half our best 22 in 4 years all done via drafting and trading completed after 2004. Tell me one other team who has done so and remained at the top end of the ladder for most of that period (played finals 3/4, top 4 2/4)? I call that amazing list management.

Very well summarised BrishHawk but just thought this part had to be edded to complete your very well thought out post, the mention of the biggest recruitment of all by the club, in the appointment of Alastair Clarkson as coach before the conclusion of the 2004 season which become a very vital piece to the puzzle of our clubs success!!
Firstly he delisted many players who were either under performing or not fitting in with his youth policy which he embarked on to rebuild the club, and with his evolutionary type of game style (Clarkson's cluster) that revolutionized the game which helped us with our finals combativeness since 2007-12 and with premiership success in 08 thus far!!!!!!

 

[thespota]

He's a future brownlow medalist alright!

Kurt is a great prospect for the hawks, I've watched him through out his season with
Caulfield Grammar/Sandringham Drangons.
192cm tall would be accurate, they tend to inflate heights at draft camp.
I've been advised he may be looking at some time on the side lines due to a serious back injury (stress fracture) sustained at a train season last weekend, hopefully he can make a good recovery as these type of injuries can linger on with dire consequences if not given enough time to heal completely.

 

[Buddy Guy]

Kurt is a great prospect for the hawks, I've watched him through out his season with
Caulfield Grammar/Sandringham Drangons.
192cm tall would be accurate, they tend to inflate heights at draft camp.
I've been advised he may be looking at some time on the side lines due to a serious back injury (stress fracture) sustained at a train season last weekend, hopefully he can make a good recovery as these type of injuries can linger on with dire consequences if not given enough time to heal completely.

How sure are you about this stress fracture?
Very bad news if true.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Kurt is a great prospect for the hawks, I've watched him through out his season with
Caulfield Grammar/Sandringham Drangons.
192cm tall would be accurate, they tend to inflate heights at draft camp.
I've been advised he may be looking at some time on the side lines due to a serious back injury (stress fracture) sustained at a train season last weekend, hopefully he can make a good recovery as these type of injuries can linger on with dire consequences if not given enough time to heal completely.

Obviously I didn't see it happen, however, when my mate was playing TAC cup, they diagnosed a stress fracture in the lower spine
Turns out it was a muscle injury
They're very similar apparently (in terms of pain)
Let's hope Kurts the same

 

[Hawkas1988]

I hope he heals quickly and it doesn't curtail his development back injuries are very serious and have to be carefully treated and always take time. Hopefully it's diagnosed correctly and they do everything possible to make sure it heals completely

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

In 2005 we had 5 picks in the first 22 and only one of those players is a regular 22 player, Birchall. People laugh at Richmond for doing the exact same thing in 2004 (only Delidio remains). 2006 was just as bad, we have no players from 2006 left on our list, ...

Then in the last 6 years we have only used our first pick 3 times (for good results) however traded out 3 times. Hardly a big thumbs up, in fact it tells me that we are more willing to bank on established talent than back our own recruiting on earlier picks.....

There are a few factors that have come into our drafting. We got burnt in 05, and that has ultimately been a good thing as we are now far more efficient at team construction. I recall one quote from the club saying we could afford to take risks because we had so many high picks. 05 taught us that every pick is a risk and where possible we have mitigated that by going for mature guys rather than kids.

We still take risks but use high picks rather than using top early picks.

As for Heatherly, Shem, Kilkenny and Amos, history shows these guys will struggle to make it. Happy to give it a go but hope we dont go silly and expend too much effort in these left field selections.

 

[its game on]

Obviously I didn't see it happen, however, when my mate was playing TAC cup, they diagnosed a stress fracture in the lower spine
Turns out it was a muscle injury
They're very similar apparently (in terms of pain)
Let's hope Kurts the same

A diagnosis of a stress fracture(s) of the Pars is something that isn't just done as a best guess or given as any old answer to lower back pain. We are talking hairline cracks (fractures) that don't even show up on xrays but need a CT scan to diagnose properly. A CT scan is the only way a stress fracture can show up, and they can be either complete or incomplete and be on either left or right side or both at the same time. With out access to the relevant medical data, speculation is just that, pure guesswork.

It doesn't just happen with one event but rather a build up of loadings, particularly with younger growing bodies and are usually done with by early 20's. It has to do with training and playing loads which are a huge step up from junior footy with regard to training ie: intensity, frequency and duration. A few twinges here and there and then a stabbing pain in the back that can't be ignored is the typical manifestation. A lot of core work to bulid up a matrix of muscles to spread the load around the back area will be needed.

In short if Kurt has stress fractures he is in the best possible hands but medium to long term he will be fine. There are worse times of the year for a rehab than now.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

As for Heatherly, Shem, Kilkenny and Amos, history shows these guys will struggle to make it. Happy to give it a go but hope we dont go silly and expend too much effort in these left field selections.

Agree on Kilkenny and Amos, but I would hope that Heatherly is a better bet than a left field selection.

Time will tell...