Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[a mayes ing]

If you are carlton would you trade pick 3 to north,brisbane or gold coast for their 1st round pick next year?

None of them would do that deal

 

[Sleezy]

Hey KM,

Curious as to your thoughts on how Todd Marshall compares to this year's tall forwards, especially those that may fall around Port's (now Brisbane's) pick 12, had we kept it?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare any key forwards, defenders or outside midfielders available around Hawks 1st pick?

Early 30s when Hawthorn enter the draft.

Key forwards are rarely good. If one good one is available, Toby Wooller is the guy. Callum Coleman-Jones if he is available there is also an excellent choice.

There are a few key defenders of quality who may still be available. Harrison Petty, Sam Taylor and Oscar Clavarino are three worth looking strongly at if there.

Outside mids - Matthew Ling may be there, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went earlier. Ling is the quickest in this draft as that genuine outside linebreaker.

KM what do you see as the main differences between Dow, Cerra & LDU? Which one would be most suited to Carlton?

Cerra is slowest but most composed.

LDU is the most dynamic and impactful on his day but least consistent and least productive.

Dow is the best of both worlds and probably the best rounded of the three.

The choice of the three is fairly open to interpretation but in Carlton's position depends entirely on availability.

Rayner may be there and would also get considered strongly.

If Rayner isn't there. Dow is the one I'd lean towards, but LDU I'd very strongly consider.

Knightmare who would you rather draft, Paddy Dow or Sam Walsh. Forget that Walsh is draft eligible until next year. You're drafting on potential as to has who you believe will have the better long term career.

Very tough call.

Could go either way.

And they've different.

Walsh feels more special in more areas whereas Dow feels more very good-excellent in more areas. So that would be the tiebreaker. Dow I like marginally more on the inside, Walsh I favour more firmly as an outside type.

Have you seen the champion liam ryan subiaco, boy he has it all another franklin

I advocated the selection of Liam Ryan last year and he's one I remain on the bandwagon of with his even better year, this year. He doesn't have the height, or running ability of Franklin. There is an awful lot of special though.

If I was to compare Liam Ryan to anyone. Top of mind, he's more Liam Jurrah than he is Buddy.

 

[Knightmare]

Stan wright hard nut player from a hard club east perth my late dads club can he play

He's going well as an overager.

Not far off the grade, he's a type where a club would have to go into a draft needing, as opposed to being someone a club would make a priority of selecting as a smaller midfielder.

Hey KM,

Curious as to your thoughts on how Todd Marshall compares to this year's tall forwards, especially those that may fall around Port's (now Brisbane's) pick 12, had we kept it?

Todd Marshall would be in the conversation with this years top few key forwards. Would probably feature around a similar choice this year. Clubs would favour Brander and possibly Fogarty. After that, he's next.

 

[Sleezy]

He's going well as an overager.

Not far off the grade, he's a type where a club would have to go into a draft needing, as opposed to being someone a club would make a priority of selecting as a smaller midfielder.



Todd Marshall would be in the conversation with this years top few key forwards. Would probably feature around a similar choice this year. Clubs would favour Brander and possibly Fogarty. After that, he's next.

Thanks KM, appreciate the input.

What is it about Brander and Fogarty that elevates them in your assessment? Our resident draft guru missionpossible rates brander as a defender, but not as a forward. Intrigued to hear your thoughts.

 

[cityslick1]

Great work Chris, really appreciate all your analysis and dedication to answering people's questions. & glad you've been able to convert it to making some coin out of your hard work.

Though I still can't help thinking that the three best players in the pool are the ones with most hurt factor, which are... Rayner, Fogarty & Stephenson. The other top rated mids I just don't see the hurt factor or class in, though you're not the only one who rates Dow so highly, so I must be missing something.

Rayner speaks for himself, but Fogarty had his meniscus problems during the champs, so I think he gets a tick just for getting himself up for the games. He's prob the classiest player in the draft, and should be a gun when fit. Stephenson has x factor to burn, plays tall for his height because of his long arms and leap, so when he fills out could be the closest thing to a Nat Fyfe in this draft... but quicker!

Would love for the Pies to take Jaidyn at 6, then jag a gun tall and small defender in the rest of the draft. If we can somehow also land a Balta, Petty, Naughton or Clavarino, I'd be rapt.

Higgins I rate higher than most other mids, but I get that he doesnt scream out top 5. Whomever lands him will have done v well though I feel.

Cheers

 

[blueiris]

Brisbane are looking at having 4 top 20 picks would these players likely be available

1.Stephenson
12. Clark
18.Worpel
19.O'Brien

 

[Simba Moyo]

Brisbane are looking at having 4 top 20 picks would these players likely be available

1.Stephenson
12. Clark
18.Worpel
19.O'Brien

Mate, that's the ideal draft right there. Arguably we'll have to trade ~18 for Cameron and I hope Rocky stays.. but if that was our draft night I'd be happy man

 

[THE_GUN]

Mate, that's the ideal draft right there. Arguably we'll have to trade ~18 for Cameron and I hope Rocky stays.. but if that was our draft night I'd be happy man

On tonights form Adelaide would be crazy to accept #18 for Charlie Cameron, The kid is a gun and looks extremely likely that he will be A grade talent. Only just turned 23 years old and has 8-10 years ahead of him.

Crows will be wanting better than #18 i think

 

[markm106]

On tonights form Adelaide would be crazy to accept #18 for Charlie Cameron, The kid is a gun and looks extremely likely that he will be A grade talent. Only just turned 23 years old and has 8-10 years ahead of him.

Crows will be wanting better than #18 i think

Agree. Especially if he backs up next week. The guy is a genuine gun.

 

[HedgeFund]

On tonights form Adelaide would be crazy to accept #18 for Charlie Cameron, The kid is a gun and looks extremely likely that he will be A grade talent. Only just turned 23 years old and has 8-10 years ahead of him.

Crows will be wanting better than #18 i think

Crows won't entertain a trade involving Cameron. No chance.

Would you?

 

[THE_GUN]

Crows won't entertain a trade involving Cameron. No chance.

Would you?

No way unless he 'MUST" go for family reasons and in any event it would be a #12 min.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM, appreciate the input.

What is it about Brander and Fogarty that elevates them in your assessment? Our resident draft guru missionpossible rates brander as a defender, but not as a forward. Intrigued to hear your thoughts.

My personal ratings differ to where I see them getting picked - eg. I rate Balta as the better key position player this year, yet I fully expect he features after Brander and Fogarty.

Brander has shown glimpses and hasn't really starred as expected. He came into the year, like Fogarty, a potential number one overall choice. Fogarty drops due to struggles relating to injuries that resulted in poor u18 champs form and his year ending prematurely. He may be in the conversation for pick one overall if that was not the case.

Brander could develop into either a key forward or key defender. He's good in both positions, though not without holes to his game at either end. I have gone against the norm and slightly favoured him as a key forward, but he has the capacity at either end. Up forward he works hard and leads to the right spaces (though could be more consistent overhead). Down back he can intercept and use the footy, but he's not as good as he should be at containing the impact of his opponents.

Similar to Marshall, I'm not seeing Brander as a life changer, but someone who is probable to develop into something.

Great work Chris, really appreciate all your analysis and dedication to answering people's questions. & glad you've been able to convert it to making some coin out of your hard work.

Though I still can't help thinking that the three best players in the pool are the ones with most hurt factor, which are... Rayner, Fogarty & Stephenson. The other top rated mids I just don't see the hurt factor or class in, though you're not the only one who rates Dow so highly, so I must be missing something.

Rayner speaks for himself, but Fogarty had his meniscus problems during the champs, so I think he gets a tick just for getting himself up for the games. He's prob the classiest player in the draft, and should be a gun when fit. Stephenson has x factor to burn, plays tall for his height because of his long arms and leap, so when he fills out could be the closest thing to a Nat Fyfe in this draft... but quicker!

Would love for the Pies to take Jaidyn at 6, then jag a gun tall and small defender in the rest of the draft. If we can somehow also land a Balta, Petty, Naughton or Clavarino, I'd be rapt.

Higgins I rate higher than most other mids, but I get that he doesnt scream out top 5. Whomever lands him will have done v well though I feel.

Cheers

Hurt factor is one of the keys in separating the top end prospects often, if their production is relatively similar.

On hurt factor, my views differ quite a bit here. Rayner firstly I completely agree on. Fogarty on last years play was high hurt factor but hasn't due to injury been able to do the same. Stephenson has some hurt factor with his run, and he can leap and excite in that regard, but his field kicking I find lets him down.

With the highest hurt factor in the draft. I'd actually say LDU. His explosion from the contest (if you saw the first week of the finals) and that sheer take over impact he showed he can have. When he is on like that, he has Judd/Dangerfield game-changing impact. He just hasn't found as much of the ball or had that kind of impact each week as much as he needs to.

Dow is another I actually quite like for impact. He wins a lot of it inside the contest but also relatively has some explosiveness himself.

Stephenson from a Pies perspective fits the old Hine model of - big game player. Stephenson has had some great finals games since 2015. So the Pies may consider. That said, he's not one even with his pace and athleticism I'd personally consider. Too many flaws - field kicking, marking is too inconsistent. No clear best position. Some inconsistency. I just can't get enthusiastic about Stephenson, and he's more someone around pick 10 onwards I would consider.

From a list needs perspective when looking at the Pies. Moore is a long term piece. Reid is a good kpp for now (though injury prone). After those two, the list is baron. A serious recruiting drive of high quality KPPs is needed, for both ends. Maybe if the Pies can get up in the 2018 draft for Lukosius and get a key defender or two this year, that may be from a tall KPP core perspective roughly the plan.

Higgins is a genuine top 10 chance and could well land around five. He's one of the highest character guys in the draft and is not only a highly productive mid, but in my view even more impactful as a forward. He's a low risk, immediate type who can help a team from round 1, 2017 for mine.

Brisbane are looking at having 4 top 20 picks would these players likely be available

1.Stephenson
12. Clark
18.Worpel
19.O'Brien

O'Brien is unlikely to be available at 19. Clark and Worpel are possibles (Clark 50/50 to be there, Worpel 60/40). Contingency plans would be needed just in case.

 

[triggering bro]

Knightmare what are your thoughts on Aiden Bonar as a player & his draft range? I've heard internally haileybury rate him better than LDU & despite his knee injuries he hasn't lost an explosiveness or pace. Been eased back into it as a forward but expected to be a beast mode mid. Your thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what are your thoughts on Aiden Bonar as a player & his draft range? I've heard internally haileybury rate him better than LDU & despite his knee injuries he hasn't lost an explosiveness or pace. Been eased back into it as a forward but expected to be a beast mode mid. Your thoughts?

I haven't loved any of Bonar's games. Hasn't won enough of it and has had little impact. His two better games were v GWV and Geelong where he took some contested marks. His physical profile and athleticism are positives. He'll get picked probably in the second or third round somewhere. It's just on speculation of what he may become and hope that with a healthy run that he can come good, rather than based on what he has done this year.

LDU is definitely the better of the two. No one this year can influence games like LDU at his best.

 

[foj1]

Brisbane are looking at having 4 top 20 picks would these players likely be available

1.Stephenson
12. Clark
18.Worpel
19.O'Brien

Clark won't get past 11 if essendon hold it I reckon

 

[HedgeFund]

Each of those Geelong boys by position I'd take with the exception being McLean who is better than McCartin.

Overall the dynamic in the TAC Cup is Geelong have clearly the best midfield in the game, Sandringham the best talls.

I'll make a judgment on the best team when I see them both at full strength. They're both overpowered but with such contrasting strengths, it really comes down to who's terms the game is played on.

Re-posted for relevance.

Should be a cracker tonight!

 

[Knightmare]

Re-posted for relevance.

Should be a cracker tonight!

Looking forward to the game.

I favour Geelong Falcons, they run 15 deep as opposed to the 10 deep Sandringham go, but the match could go either way. Geelong have a strong midfield but then also several outside runners and capable small forwards. Sandringham by contrast have a long list of exceptional key position players and also from a skill perspective are strong with several players who can move and use the ball.

A nice game of contrasts awaits.

 

[HedgeFund]

Looking forward to the game.

I favour Geelong Falcons, they run 15 deep as opposed to the 10 deep Sandringham go, but the match could go either way. Geelong have a strong midfield but then also several outside runners and capable small forwards. Sandringham by contrast have a long list of exceptional key position players and also from a skill perspective are strong with several players who can move and use the ball.

A nice game of contrasts awaits.

GF 15 deep as opposed to SD 10 deep?

There must be plenty of Falcons you rate highly who didn't get combine invites......and Dragons you don't rate who did.

This will be a battle of the Dragons team defence and calculated ball movement in space versus Falcons ability to win inside football and surge it forward.

Similar to the contrasting playing styles of the 2016 finale too.

 

[JV07]

Hey KM,

Thoughts on Port Melbourne's Ash Krakauer being drafted this year? Elite skills and decision-making. Would be perfect for a team looking for a Caleb Daniel-type midfielder who's clean around the stoppages. He was very impressive today in the VFL Grand Final against quality opposition. Also, I believe he's part of St Kilda's Next Gen Academy. He must have a few clubs interested for a potential rookie pick.

Cheers

 

[adammania9]

Brisbane are looking at having 4 top 20 picks would these players likely be available

1.Stephenson
12. Clark
18.Worpel
19.O'Brien

Dunno if Stephenson will still be available then

 

[adsla69k]

GF 15 deep as opposed to SD 10 deep?

There must be plenty of Falcons you rate highly who didn't get combine invites......and Dragons you don't rate who did.

This will be a battle of the Dragons team defence and calculated ball movement in space versus Falcons ability to win inside football and surge it forward.

Similar to the contrasting playing styles of the 2016 finale too.

I think it was more Geelong Falcons side are more of a team this year then previous years and they possess less passengers then Sandy. I thought the Brayshaws lost their way in the 3rd quarter and Geelongs Forwards started to get first look with quick entries. Good game and Geelong deserved it!

 

[adsla69k]

Hey KM,
Been watching Sam Walsh this year and thought he has been pretty consistent but tonights game he showed up and grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck. I thought it was a great effort even though I didnt see much of him in the last. But comparing Walsh to LDU in his underage year Sam Walsh is easily 2 times the player IMO. What do you think? With lots of KPP players going early next year some team is going to get a bargin with this lad.

 

[HedgeFund]

I think it was more Geelong Falcons side are more of a team this year then previous years and they possess less passengers then Sandy. I thought the Brayshaws lost their way in the 3rd quarter and Geelongs Forwards started to get first look with quick entries. Good game and Geelong deserved it!

It was an exceptionally exciting game but for mine neither team truly deserved to win/lose.

Falcons only dominated for the first ten minutes and the whole third term. They kicked 11 of their 13 goals in 35 minutes .

Dragons didn't quite make as much of their dominance for the other 50 minutes (with perhaps 15 mins being an arm wrestle).

Fact is Amartey wouldn't have been in the unenviable position of having to kick a winner after the siren, having plucked a great mark I might add, had:

(a) Geelong been able to defend better in the last qtr; OR

(b) Dragons kicked straighter than 4.6 to establish a lead with several minutes to go.

A couple of chances to Falcons, but plenty more to Dragons.

It was a truly classic Grand Final and shame there had to be a loser. Very proud of the Dragons as very few realistically gave them much of a chance.

 

[foj1]

It was an exceptionally exciting game but for mine neither team truly deserved to win/lose.

Falcons only dominated for the first ten minutes and the whole third term. They kicked 11 of their 13 goals in 35 minutes .

Dragons didn't quite make as much of their dominance for the other 50 minutes (with perhaps 15 mins being an arm wrestle).

Fact is Amartey wouldn't have been in the unenviable position of having to kick a winner after the siren, having plucked a great mark I might add, had:

(a) Geelong been able to defend better in the last qtr; OR

(b) Dragons kicked straighter than 4.6 to establish a lead with several minutes to go.

A couple of chances to Falcons, but plenty more to Dragons.

It was a truly classic Grand Final and shame there had to be a loser. Very proud of the Dragons as very few realistically gave them much of a chance.

Was a great game.
Feel sorry for young Joel.
Not sure constable or Murphy should have played.
Dragons got super close with both brayshaws, constable, m king McLean and Murphy all being below their best.