Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[PP34]

He was interviewed yesterday on 5aa (not sure if that is the interview you were referring to). Amongst many other things Mark Bickley did ask him in a very respectful way what his preference was and he commented with a little pause between. The interview is on the 5aa website

An 18 year old kid likes being in his home state and prefers to play there. Gee really shocking stuff.

Means **** all in the grand scheme of things unless he has a really hard time coping on his own in a new state.

Hilarious how Crows fans seem to think that you’ll just end up with him. That’s not how it works. There are plenty of examples of kids moving away from their state or country town into a new city and coping just fine. Far outweighs the number of kids who don’t cope and quickly return home.

 

[Davo-27]

An 18 year old kid likes being in his home state and prefers to play there. Gee really shocking stuff.

Means **** all in the grand scheme of things unless he has a really hard time coping on his own in a new state.

Hilarious how Crows fans seem to think that you’ll just end up with him. That’s not how it works. There are plenty of examples of kids moving away from their state or country town into a new city and coping just fine. Far outweighs the number of kids who don’t cope and quickly return home.

its true, usually the only time players want to return home is because they have given the club that drafted them good service and want to go home for family reasons OR they are at a bad club in a non football state like GCS now and Brisbane a few years ago and they just want the f-out of there... sometimes those reasons are coach based, culture based or rogue queensland presidents hurting the club more than helping, thats my read of things otherwise they usually never leave and stay loyal.

 

[Soups]

Why has Jack Bytel slipped so far?

I still rate him as one of the best midfielders in the group. Is there something I am missing?

His kicking looks very avg from what I have seen.

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ... do we have list of indigenous player for 2018?

 

[Bearded Clam]

An 18 year old kid likes being in his home state and prefers to play there. Gee really shocking stuff.

Means **** all in the grand scheme of things unless he has a really hard time coping on his own in a new state.

Hilarious how Crows fans seem to think that you’ll just end up with him. That’s not how it works. There are plenty of examples of kids moving away from their state or country town into a new city and coping just fine. Far outweighs the number of kids who don’t cope and quickly return home.

No what’s hilarious is just because crows fans are pointing out the noises Rankine has been making in regards to wanting to stay in SA and his support for the adelaide crows that instantly means “Crows fans seem to think that you’ll just end up with him. That’s not how it works.”

I haven’t seen any crows fan thinking/saying we’ll “just end up with him”.. so you and a couple of others here are simply making that up... and it could just as easily be construed that many of the comments from supporters of interstate teams here are almost trying to convince themselves that he’ll definately stick around if their club picks him..

All we crows are saying is that there are a few red flags in rankine being a flight risk that have emerged over the past couple of months. He said on channel 10 just weeks ago he would rather remain in adelaide.. now he seems to be hesitant to say that again and you’d have to think it’s because he’s been told not to say it, but journos nearly tripped him up a couple of times this week... they are pushing him on it cause they obviously love the controversy, it creates news.
on top of this there is his choice of manager and the rumours that other more recognised managers mysteriously shunned providing their services to him. If you dissagree with this then great, that’s you prerogative..

If he was a vic metro kid saying the same things Id be hoping like hell my club went nowhere near him and used their pick on another great prospect in this draft.. or you end up with the issue Geelong now have with Kelly, freo have with Cerra, brisbane had with schache, crows had with Cameron just to name a few.

Ultimately, unless the crows give up two good first round picks for him or a player and a first, they won’t be in the running to grab him.. crows supporters know this and they know the club will either trade up to get to a pick they know will get him or let him go and pick up Hately and Rozee and a couple of others and get in Rankine’s ear and tell him the first moment he wants to come home they’ll help make it happen.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers knight.
Just wanted to see your thoughts on some of the top prospects for next year.
Is Finn Macginess a top prospect in your eyes?
Have you seen much of Corey watts or Jackson Voss to see whether they are Draftable next year?

I don't have Maginness has one of the top choices next year, but I view him as draftable.

Corey Watts is doing well and looks the goods. His last month and a half has been particularly strong and I expect him to continue to improve.

Voss is also progressing well and looks like a prospect to watch for 2019 also with his production already good.

Could you do a list of just the FS, Academies and NGAs?

Those I'm pretty confident will get drafted and within the top 50 should receive bids roughly in this order:
Tarryn Thomas (NM - Academy)
Nick Blakey (Syd - Academy)
Rhylee West (WBD - F/S)
Isaac Quaynor (Coll - Academy)
Kieran Briggs (GWS - Academy)
Connor McFadyen (Bris - Academy)
Will Kelly (Coll - F/S)
Bailey Scott (GC Academy,NM F/S or Gee F/S)
Oscar Brownless (Gee F/S)
Buku Khamis (WBD - Academy)
Jarrod Cameron (WCE - Academy)

How did you see Kelly vs. Lukosius yesterday?

Kelly was impressive. He's showing that he is draftable which coming into the u18 champs I wasn't thinking, but he's looking better with each game down back. He could become more of a rebounder/intercepter but he's looking athletic/quick/strong enough and is improving, so that's what counts.

Nothing changes with my view of Lukosius. I'm solid in my views on him.

Hey KM,
I was a big wrap for Mitch Podhajski last year and was surprised to not see him picked up. Given his move to the midfield and largely rather impressive vfl form what kind of range (if at all) would you see him being taken? As a blues fan would love to see us take him as a taller mid in the 3rd/4th round

I didn't love Podhajski last year. Played back. Didn't really show me a point of difference. Was uncontested, low impact.

I love what he's doing this year though. Terrific as a ball winning mid and presents up well as a forward.

I'd like to see a club take him late. He's AFL standard for mine and inside my top 40 power rankings.

Hey KM where do you see Hately fitting in? Have seen him a bit in the SANFL this year and has impressed me greatly. I still can’t work out what position will be his best yet though

I see Hately as an inside mid with his contested ball winning and distribution by hand that main strength I've seen through the u18 champs. His u18 champs were relatively underwhelming knowing how well he had gone in the SANFL, with a few others having greater impacts.

He's still looking like a first round choice though, it's just unclear whether he goes top 10 or just outside.

Why has Jack Bytel slipped so far?

I still rate him as one of the best midfielders in the group. Is there something I am missing?

Powerful ball winner and good inside distributor. Does all the hard stuff well. Capable up forward. He has plenty going for him.

I wouldn't be calling him one of the best midfielders in this draft though. He's not the best kick, not super quick and doesn't have the x-factor or way of hurting you offensively with ball in hand as many of the other better prospects have this year.

He looks like a solid second round choice for a club needing a mid in that range.

Who are the best contested ball winning midfielders that will likely still be around in the late 20's or early 30's in the draft?

Thanks.

Jack Bytel, Luke Valente, Connor McFadyen (Bris Academy), Sam Fletcher and Jye Caldwell may all be there in that range and all are excellent contested ball winners.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare ... do we have list of indigenous player for 2018?

I don't all that closely follow the heritage of players. My interest has always been in whether guys can play or not.

The top indigenous players for this year though are: Tarryn Thomas, Ian Hill, Sydney Stack and Jarrod Cameron who all on talent are first half of draft prospects.

 

[Bicks]

I don't have Maginness has one of the top choices next year, but I view him as draftable.

Corey Watts is doing well and looks the goods. His last month and a half has been particularly strong and I expect him to continue to improve.

Voss is also progressing well and looks like a prospect to watch for 2019 also with his production already good.



Those I'm pretty confident will get drafted and within the top 50 should receive bids roughly in this order:
Tarryn Thomas (NM - Academy)
Nick Blakey (Syd - Academy)
Rhylee West (WBD - F/S)
Isaac Quaynor (Coll - Academy)
Kieran Briggs (GWS - Academy)
Connor McFadyen (Bris - Academy)
Will Kelly (Coll - F/S)
Bailey Scott (GC Academy,NM F/S or Gee F/S)
Oscar Brownless (Gee F/S)
Buku Khamis (WBD - Academy)
Jarrod Cameron (WCE - Academy)



Kelly was impressive. He's showing that he is draftable which coming into the u18 champs I wasn't thinking, but he's looking better with each game down back. He could become more of a rebounder/intercepter but he's looking athletic/quick/strong enough and is improving, so that's what counts.

Nothing changes with my view of Lukosius. I'm solid in my views on him.



I didn't love Podhajski last year. Played back. Didn't really show me a point of difference. Was uncontested, low impact.

I love what he's doing this year though. Terrific as a ball winning mid and presents up well as a forward.

I'd like to see a club take him late. He's AFL standard for mine and inside my top 40 power rankings.



I see Hately as an inside mid with his contested ball winning and distribution by hand that main strength I've seen through the u18 champs. His u18 champs were relatively underwhelming knowing how well he had gone in the SANFL, with a few others having greater impacts.

He's still looking like a first round choice though, it's just unclear whether he goes top 10 or just outside.



Powerful ball winner and good inside distributor. Does all the hard stuff well. Capable up forward. He has plenty going for him.

I wouldn't be calling him one of the best midfielders in this draft though. He's not the best kick, not super quick and doesn't have the x-factor or way of hurting you offensively with ball in hand as many of the other better prospects have this year.

He looks like a solid second round choice for a club needing a mid in that range.



Jack Bytel, Luke Valente, Connor McFadyen (Bris Academy), Sam Fletcher and Jye Caldwell may all be there in that range and all are excellent contested ball winners.

Where do you see Ely Smith going after his impressive display in his only Championship game and good TAC form??

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you see Ely Smith going after his impressive display in his only Championship game and good TAC form??

Ely Smith is one I've liked since the start of the season and felt was incredibly stiff not to make the initial Vic Country squad.

I'd like to think he features somewhere mid-draft as that powerful ball winning mid who distributes effectively by hand and does all the hard stuff. For mine on quality he's a top 40 talent in this class.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

New DP I've noticed KM.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I see Walsh is 68kg. Can you offer any advice as to his body type and how he might compete against men? I'd like to get him but with Fisher, SPS, O'Brien in our midfield, I'm concerned about another small mid unless they can build muscle. I think Paddy Dow will get stronger as he already has decent quads.

 

[Knightmare]

I see Walsh is 68kg. Can you offer any advice as to his body type and how he might compete against men? I'd like to get him but with Fisher, SPS, O'Brien in our midfield, I'm concerned about another small mid unless they can build muscle. I think Paddy Dow will get stronger as he already has decent quads.

Walsh is light, but he wins the contested ball to a strong level and he'll win it at AFL level also.

He can reach a playing weight of 80-85 and develop a similar size/body to a Josh Kelly which is all he needs.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Hi Knightmare,

Love your work. As a Carlton supporter, I was just playing around with a couple of trade/draft scenarios. If we finish with 2 or less wins surely we should get a priority pick at the end of the first round, pick 19, regardless of whether we request one.

Start with Pick 1, 19, 23 and 25. If we have faith in the talls we've recruited and decide we'd get better value from leveraging Lukosius' worth to Adelaide, we could bolster our midfield with the following scenario:

• Trade pick 1 to Adelaide for pick 7 and 12.
• Then trade pick 7 and 25 to the Bulldogs for pick 5 and 41.
• Leaves us with pick 5, 12, 19, 23 and 41.

Could grab (5) Bailey Smith (or Rankine), (12) Riley Collier-Dawkins, (19) Xavier Duursma and (23) Sydney Stack plus whoever we like (small forward perhaps) who falls to pick 41. Would give us a nice range of talented midfielders.

I think I'd prefer to get Lukosius to form a formidable duo with Curnow over the next decade but I wonder whether getting Smith and Collier-Dawkins instead would be worth it to us given our midfield woes.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Love your work. As a Carlton supporter, I was just playing around with a couple of trade/draft scenarios. If we finish with 2 or less wins surely we should get a priority pick at the end of the first round, pick 19, regardless of whether we request one.

Start with Pick 1, 19, 23 and 25. If we have faith in the talls we've recruited and decide we'd get better value from leveraging Lukosius' worth to Adelaide, we could bolster our midfield with the following scenario:

• Trade pick 1 to Adelaide for pick 7 and 12.
• Then trade pick 7 and 25 to the Bulldogs for pick 5 and 41.
• Leaves us with pick 5, 12, 19, 23 and 41.

Could grab (5) Bailey Smith (or Rankine), (12) Riley Collier-Dawkins, (19) Xavier Duursma and (23) Sydney Stack plus whoever we like (small forward perhaps) who falls to pick 41. Would give us a nice range of talented midfielders.

I think I'd prefer to get Lukosius to form a formidable duo with Curnow over the next decade but I wonder whether getting Smith and Collier-Dawkins instead would be worth it to us given our midfield woes.

Unclear whether the Dogs would trade down from pick 5 if that's what they end up with. I suggest they probably wouldn't.

My advise to Carlton would be to retain pick 1 = Lukosius and find other ways to fill the clubs other needs. Play him on a wing if you don't need another key forward. I'd take him over any two players in the draft. If it's any three, and I get the three I want, I may then reconsider, but it would take that much to sway me away from moving that pick = Lukosius.

There are also other ways to get some mids in the door. Trade Liam Jones and Levi Casboult to a club needing them. Any of Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Geelong could use them as contending teams that are light on for good KPPs.

I'd also explore a trade for North Melbourne's first round choice - they're the club I can see giving up that pick keeping in mind they'll be concerned about a bid for Tarryn Thomas coming before their first selection and then needing to use it to match. Can a trade of North Melbourne's first round picks for 2018/2019 for Carlton's first round pick 2019 and Harry McKay be something? That's a lot of predicting what will happen next year, but it gets North out from under that first round 2018 pick and allows them to pair the McKay brothers, and in Carlton's situation trades away a surplus tall in Harry.

Always lots of ways to work things. These are just some ideas to explore top of mind.

 

[BLERN]

Any news on Bailey Scotts intentions yet? Been a fair few murmurs from geel, north and gcs fans that he is leaning towards them, but i have only heard speculation so far.

 

[Knightmare]

Any news on Bailey Scotts intentions yet? Been a fair few murmurs from geel, north and gcs fans that he is leaning towards them, but i have only heard speculation so far.

He's undecided. Confirmed it post game v WA. Have not heard anything concrete on which way he is leaning. It sounds like he'll play the season and make a decision then.

 

[BLERN]

He's undecided. Confirmed it post game v WA. Have not heard anything concrete on which way he is leaning. It sounds like he'll play the season and make a decision then.

Yeah its just one of those ones thats annoying me. Im not enjoying watching us have no acess to barely any of our F/S. I understand the reasons behind the decisions. Still upsets me though.

Its not going to get much better for us over the coming years on that front either.

*crosses fingers and hopes for the best*

 

[briztoon]

Yeah its just one of those ones thats annoying me. Im not enjoying watching us have no acess to barely any of our F/S. I understand the reasons behind the decisions. Still upsets me though.

Its not going to get much better for us over the coming years on that front either.

*crosses fingers and hopes for the best*

Not like they were Father Sons to other clubs as well.

 

[BLERN]

Not like they were Father Sons to other clubs as well.

Yeah i know. I probably could have explained my thoughts better. Wasnt trying to come across like i was whinging about the situation. And clearly my thoughts on this are going to have a bit of north bias.

Id just love him to choose us.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah i know. I probably could have explained my thoughts better. Wasnt trying to come across like i was whinging about the situation. And clearly my thoughts on this are going to have a bit of north bias.

Id just love him to choose us.

Even beyond Thomas, Blakey (off to Sydney) and Scott, North can still get Joel Crocker is one who hasn't been spoken about being out for the season, but he is one North can get. Personally, I'd be taking him. His play in 2017 impressed (son of Darren). If he can be had as a rookie, that would be ideal, but if he was healthy, he could have been a first half of draft prospect.

 

[BLERN]

Even beyond Thomas, Blakey (off to Sydney) and Scott, North can still get Joel Crocker is one who hasn't been spoken about being out for the season, but he is one North can get. Personally, I'd be taking him. His play in 2017 impressed (son of Darren). If he can be had as a rookie, that would be ideal, but if he was healthy, he could have been a first half of draft prospect.

I cant see any reason why we wouldnt be taking joel. The ankle wasnt great timing for him. But he does look to be a decent player to me

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Unclear whether the Dogs would trade down from pick 5 if that's what they end up with. I suggest they probably wouldn't.

My advise to Carlton would be to retain pick 1 = Lukosius and find other ways to fill the clubs other needs. Play him on a wing if you don't need another key forward. I'd take him over any two players in the draft. If it's any three, and I get the three I want, I may then reconsider, but it would take that much to sway me away from moving that pick = Lukosius.

There are also other ways to get some mids in the door. Trade Liam Jones and Levi Casboult to a club needing them. Any of Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Geelong could use them as contending teams that are light on for good KPPs.

I'd also explore a trade for North Melbourne's first round choice - they're the club I can see giving up that pick keeping in mind they'll be concerned about a bid for Tarryn Thomas coming before their first selection and then needing to use it to match. Can a trade of North Melbourne's first round picks for 2018/2019 for Carlton's first round pick 2019 and Harry McKay be something? That's a lot of predicting what will happen next year, but it gets North out from under that first round 2018 pick and allows them to pair the McKay brothers, and in Carlton's situation trades away a surplus tall in Harry.

Always lots of ways to work things. These are just some ideas to explore top of mind.

Yeah, fair call. I’d be reluctant to give away McKay given our experience in trading Josh Kennedy for Judd a decade ago. It all depends on how much we believe in De Koning, who has performed much better than McKay in the VFL at the same stage, and probably fits that forward/ruck description better. If TDK can show a bit more over the next six weeks then trading Harry for the Kangaroos’ first pick to get someone like Collier-Dawkins could be worth it (if we think he is going to be Bontempelli-like).

 

[tenderwarrior]

Knightmare, who are the mature age recruits worth keeping an eye on?

 

[crispy creme]

I see Walsh is 68kg. Can you offer any advice as to his body type and how he might compete against men? I'd like to get him but with Fisher, SPS, O'Brien in our midfield, I'm concerned about another small mid unless they can build muscle. I think Paddy Dow will get stronger as he already has decent quads.

All the listed weights are done pre-season, some as far back as November. I believe that Walsh is currently in the 73-74kg range, which is fine at this stage of his development.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

All the listed weights are done pre-season, some as far back as November. I believe that Walsh is currently in the 73-74kg range, which is fine at this stage of his development.

Awesome. I just saw that he was the lightest of all the top order midfielders and by some way. Maybe he has put on weight and they have stayed about the same. I'm much happier with that.