Analysis Ladder Prediction: the rise and fall

[Nunez]

Less a question of predicting the full ladder, more of who you believe will rise into the 8/4 and who will drop out completely and a short reason why.

Fire away!

 

[bato]

Richmond should rise. Easy draw for WCE should see them sneak into the eight. Expect Adelaide to be big movers - might finish top six. Fremantle will stick around that top four. Add Gold Coast and you have Geelong making way out of the eight I think.

 

[knaf]

"What's the use of staying sober,
Fellas rise and Fellas fall.
What I could have been but wasn't
Doesn't worry me at all!"

Henry Lawson from the Sweeney (perhaps his best work)

As long as the Lions rise and Collingwood fall, it doesn't worry me at all.

 

[POBT]

My bottom six includes Bulldogs, Saints, GWS, Collingwood and Melbourne. IMO, the sixth spot in that bottom group will go to whichever of Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast have the worst injury run. I'll name Carlton, just for the hate factor.

I think Gold Coast could finish anywhere from 5th to 13th.

Based purely on list quality, I think Essendon is the side most likely to push into the top 4. ASADA is obviously the big question mark. Geelong is the most likely to drop but I dunno if I have them outside finals just yet. Port will be in that top 6 range again while I'm still not convinced about North's list. Freo look vulnerable given the age of their talls but their midfield is still in its prime. Hawks and Sydney still the best lists in town although at some point, the Mitchell/Hodge/Burgoyne group has to start to decline. No idea about Richmond - could do anything.

A rough ladder prediction:

Sydney
Port
Hawthorn
Essendon
Freo
Gold Coast
North
Geelong

Richmond
West Coast
Brisbane
Adelaide
GWS
Carlton
Collingwood
Melbourne
Bulldogs
St Kilda

 

[Billy Puller]

Collingwood for wooden spoon. Eddie's head to finally implode. Great moment for footy fans Nationwide

 

[Nunez]

I dig your list POBT, I hold a smiliar thought but slightly varied.

Top four I am seeing similar to last years coming to fruition.

Sydney
Hawthorn
North
Port

Sydney, Hawks and Port and shoe ins. North NEED to push for a grand final tilt this year. It is literally their first real chance and IMO due to their teams age, will be their last. I can't see them out of the top 4.

Fremantle
Essendon
Gold Coast
Richmond

I think Freo, Essendon and Richmond will fill out the next 3 spots, with the GC in dire need for a top 8 birth so I don't see them missing out either

West Coast
Adelaide
Brisbane
Geelong
GWS
Collingwood
Melbourne
Bulldogs
St. Kilda
Carlton

Most of the bottom 8 bar the final 3 can and will chop and change, but I can't see anybody but the blues tanking..ugh, finishing last this year.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. North

5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. Gold Coast

9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Brisbane
12. West Coast
13. GWS
14. Collingwood

15. Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. Carlton

 

[QLDatHEART]

Sydney
Fremantle
Port
Hawthorn

Essendon
Gold Coast
Richmond
Brisbane

North
Geelong
West Coast
Adelaide
Collingwood
Carlton

Melbourne
Bulldogs
GWS
St Kilda





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ironmonger]

I agree with POBT; Essendon are the team most likely to break into the top four.

They made a big investment last year in getting games into Carlisle and Daniher as key forwards. They only need one of them to turn into a 40-50 goal forward in 2015 to be considerably improved. Their midfield depth is excellent, particularly with Heppell emerging as one of the best players in the league, and Cooney and Chapman able to play bit parts.

That said, not sure whether they can stay in finals contention beyond the next couple of years.

I'm also pretty confident West Coast will do well next year. I think they were ignored a bit in 2014, because they never really looked like finishing anywhere other than the middle of the ladder, but they played some good footy and had quite a few narrow losses. Apart from the lack of a really damaging outside midfielder, they have a very balanced team, and should be good value for a solid 6th-7th place finish.

 

[Nunez]

I really do suspect carlscum to tank

 

[pOleK]

I see we've found a way to post the ladders with the current dilemma on the Ladder Predictions thread

 

[hench]

I can see Gold Coast finishing 7th or 8th and losing by 100 in their first final.

 

[Panthera]

Less than a decade ago, the theory was to bottom out to really fast track a rise up the ladder...now it seems the fashion these days is to simply top up with experienced players and that'll get you in/near the finals as there are currently so many really young teams.

Hawthorn, Geelong, Freo and Sydney have been doing it for the past 5+ years (great timing for them with the two new clubs), with Essendon and North now doing the same along with Richmond.

The Lions, Bulldogs, Saints and Pies have implemented near full rebuilds, whilst the lists of Carlton and Melbourne look like a dogs breakfast.

Port is the odd one out as they ended up at the bottom, even though they had a core of top draft picks and talented players already on the list. They added a couple of youngsters via trades and ended two mins from a grand final last year and have added Ryder for this year.

Gold Coast and GWS will end up top 6 clubs by the end of the decade through sheer numbers of super high draft picks and tradable options.

Adelaide and West Coast could go either way for mine...gut says a holding pattern for the next couple of years.

So, to my ladder for 2015:

1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Geelong
5. North
6. Gold Coast
7. Essendon
8. Fremantle
_______________

9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. Brisbane
12. West Coast
13. Collingwood
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Melbourne
18. St.Kilda

As for the mighty Lions; there will be plenty of ups and downs, wins against teams we technically shouldn't beat and losses that should have been wins...but, the main thing I think we'll achieve (apart from the 10 -12 wins I predict) is knowing the capabilities of the majority of our list moving forward, which to me is more important than where on the ladder we end up or the number of wins we have in 2015

 

[Hornet1]

Sydney
Port
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Richmond
Fremantle

Gold Coast
Geelong
Essendon
Lions
West Coast
Adelaide

Collingwood
GWS
Carlton
Melbourne
St Kilda
Bulldogs

I rate the top 6 as the strongest group of teams, with Sydney to get the flag over port in a thriller. I don't want to see hawthorn in the GF again.

The bolded teams will fight it out for the final 2 spots in the 8 IMO. I've swung towards the suns and the cats just due to the talent and the experience of the respective sides. I'm hopeful that we are still in the hunt in the finals rounds of the year for a change, but I think any of the bolded group could make it. Hell if we win some at home early on in the year that will help us enormously.

I don't rate the bottom six much and I hope GWS surprise a few more teams and get to the 8-9 win mark. I think the doggies will get the spoon.

 

[SizeMatters]

Hawks, Port, North, Swans are a lock for top 8.

Essendon, Fremantle, GCS most likely to make top 8.

Bottom 4 would be Saints, Carlton, Dogs and Melbourne.

All the rest of the teams would be fighting for the 8th spot on the ladder.

I have North as the premiers against Hawks.

 

[pauldrc]

Less than a decade ago, the theory was to bottom out to really fast track a rise up the ladder...now it seems the fashion these days is to simply top up with experienced players and that'll get you in/near the finals as there are currently so many really young teams.

Hawthorn, Geelong, Freo and Sydney have been doing it for the past 5+ years (great timing for them with the two new clubs), with Essendon and North now doing the same along with Richmond.

The Lions, Bulldogs, Saints and Pies have implemented near full rebuilds, whilst the lists of Carlton and Melbourne look like a dogs breakfast.

Port is the odd one out as they ended up at the bottom, even though they had a core of top draft picks and talented players already on the list. They added a couple of youngsters via trades and ended two mins from a grand final last year and have added Ryder for this year.

Gold Coast and GWS will end up top 6 clubs by the end of the decade through sheer numbers of super high draft picks and tradable options.

Adelaide and West Coast could go either way for mine...gut says a holding pattern for the next couple of years.

So, to my ladder for 2015:

1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Geelong
5. North
6. Gold Coast
7. Essendon
8. Fremantle
_______________

9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. Brisbane
12. West Coast
13. Collingwood
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Melbourne
18. St.Kilda

As for the mighty Lions; there will be plenty of ups and downs, wins against teams we technically shouldn't beat and losses that should have been wins...but, the main thing I think we'll achieve (apart from the 10 -12 wins I predict) is knowing the capabilities of the majority of our list moving forward, which to me is more important than where on the ladder we end up or the number of wins we have in 2015

Quality post.

That would be my top 8, except perhaps for having Geelong finish a bit lower, but then people have been saying they will slide the last few years, and somehow they have managed not to, so perhaps they can again finish top 4 this year also....

 

[Elixuh]

Mmm North and Richmond are the hardest to pick imo. I would pick both to jump up the ladder a tad with freo and geelong to slide towards the bottom of the 8.

Port top 4. Hope they improve even more this year.

Toss up between north and ess for the other top 4 spot...dont think richmond are up to it.

For us to finish where some have predicted we really need to be convincing against the bottom teams. Convincing against the mid tier teams. Competitive against all top 8s while snagging a few upsets.

I dare say we'll see a few blowouts against the top 4 sides but the bottom to mid teir team matches are our most important this year as a barometer of our improvement.

 

[Sir G]

We will annihilate the competition!!!

 

[Chezzalenko Reborn]

Amazing adding to our midfield, but Im still feeling very meh about our forward line and defense.

I'm predicting 10th to 12th place with maybe wins against 2 or 3 wins against Top 8 sides. Preferrably a win against Hawthorn and Richmond would be telling signs (win against back to back premiers and finally smashing our bogey side)

 

[Sir G]

Amazing adding to our midfield, but Im still feeling very meh about our forward line and defense.

I'm predicting 10th to 12th place with maybe wins against 2 or 3 wins against Top 8 sides. Preferrably a win against Hawthorn and Richmond would be telling signs (win against back to back premiers and finally smashing our bogey side)

AAHHH chewy on ya boot Chezza

 

[Simbatheking21]

Sydney
Port
Hawks
Freo
North
Geelong
Gold Coast
Bombers

Adelaide
Richmond
Lions
Collingwood
West Coast
Blues
Dogs
GWS
Melbourne
Saints

 

[bradydaw91]

The best thing about this thread is that Brisbane supporters seem to rate Richmond alot higher than other team's supporters.

Almost insync with the lofty expectations of tiger supporters.. almost.

 

[Nunez]

The best thing about this thread is that Brisbane supporters seem to rate Richmond alot higher than other team's supporters.

Almost insync with the lofty expectations of tiger supporters.. almost.

don't let us down!

 

[Brettles]

The best thing about this thread is that Brisbane supporters seem to rate Richmond alot higher than other team's supporters.

Almost insync with the lofty expectations of tiger supporters.. almost.

Our opinion on the Tigers is most likely inflated due to the fact we haven't beat you since Round 7, 9 May 2009 haha!!

 

[Nunez]

Our opinion on the Tigers is most likely inflated due to the fact we haven't beat you since Round 7, 9 May 2009 haha!!

Soon to be 'We haven't beat you since 2015'