Let's really analyse this next game (GFC v CFC)

[Mooney_d'King]

Overall it is easy to say the Cats are the better side & thus will win, full of stars & no weaknesses. But on paper Forward & Back match ups are very even. This game will be won or lost in the middle.

Collingwood actually have good match ups for all the Cats forwards, if the ball isn't coming in as much as it was against the Roos they will hold up fine.

The Cats backs did a great job last game against the Pies, but this time around there is Didak getting back in form, Rusling & Buckley to contend with plus Egan is out. So on paper maybe an edge to the Pies here. If the forwards can get supply they will cause the Cats big headaches. There is enough firepower there to give the Cats defenders a lot of nerves when running off their players as they love to do. Should the Pies snag a few early goals it will badly effect the way this very good defence plays & links with the mids.

So it comes down to the middle and this is where the Cats have an overwhelming advantage. They should win enough of the ball to give their forwards oppurtunities with Bartel & Ablett etc etc. The Pies will not shut them down enough as West Coast mids had a mountain of the ball last week & this is a better midfield this week. The Cats will be dominant in the ruck with a half fit Fraser and a raw Richards. Fraser & Ottens will both try & get forward to stretch the respective defences. But overall expect that the Cats midfield will get great service from their rucks as Cox gave WC plenty of advantage last week.

However the game is not lost if the Cats do get a lot of ball as the WC game showed. If the Pies can get it going enough the other way they can hurt you from limited oppurtunities (provided kicking relatively straight).

So I think the game hinges on whether they prevent the Pies getting enough ball to hurt them the other way. With Ling & co the answer should be yes, plus the Cats should have extra run in their legs. The Pies are even in the middle & will rely on heavy tackling & pressure to turn the ball over plus a lot of rotations off the bench. Enright & Corey are very important players in making sure the opposition can't run freely.

The key ball winner in the middle for the Pies will be Pendlebury he is creative & opens play up for the Pies. Would be tempted on playing Selwood defensively on him if I were the Cats not that Selwood is a better player but Pendles is a more valueable player to his side. Plus would be a fascinating match up for the fans!

If the mids are getting stopped which I would expect, then the Pies have some X factor in the middle. If Didak does what he did last week he will cause chaos and Buckley with a few weeks match fitness can push in the middle more. They are 2 genuine great ball users & winners. If the rest of the mids can break even and these two get involved anything could happen.

Should the Pies get a great start then it will be game on. The Cats have some massive advantages in confidence and the week off, they must capitalise on this early. They can also be their biggest weakness. Confidence can quickly evaporate in front of 90,000 people and you have a bad start to the game. The week off may also leave them a feeling a little too relaxed and happy to think that they will run the Pies down in the last half.

My tip the Cats by 15 points.

Fantastc work 4#Didak#4, and not just because you predicted a Geelong win. The middle is definitely the key.

 

[Mark W]

From my biased Collingwood POV. Geelong are a superb defensive side. They have a very good midfield, and a reasonable forward line. Last time, Collingwood's midfield more or less matched theirs, our defence did a reasonable job on keeping their forwards in check. I'm confident that Collingwood's midfield and defence can repeat the job. However, last time, our attack got smashed. Not only did we fail to mark the ball much inside 50 (Rocca was constanly flying against 2 or 3 opponents, Harley and Milburn constantly flying as 3rd man up to help Scarlett) but they ran the ball out at will....This is what Collingwood has to change to win this game.

This time round we have two things in our favour - they have lost Egan (incidently Cloke gave him a bit of a touch up to last time around) and we now have a 3rd tall in Rusling. Our forward line is consequently better balanced and their defence less so. Harley will have to play on Cloke and will therefore be playing up around the 50, he wont be able to help out Scarlett this week! A LOT depends on Rusling, which is a worry for Collingwood. He has some weapons - frightening pace and a superb lead but he is an inexperienced kid and consequently very inconsistent. I'll almost go so far as to say he is our key. On paper, its hard to see a decent match up - maybe Mackie? Then again I thought that last week and he had a bit of a 'mare, Chick tore him a new one. If Rusling plays well he will create an awful lot of room for Rocca. Geelongs small/medium defenders will then be caught in 2 minds - do we zone off in front of Rusling to take his space, or do we hang around to help Scarlett against Rocca? This to me is the key, if Rusling plays well it will leave Rocca one out against Scarlett. In that case he is a decent chance to do the job for the pies. If Rusling plays poorly it will allow Geelong to structure up so that Rocca flys against multiple opponents, we will lose. Oh yes, whoever has Milburn as an opponent, needs to get him as far away from Rocca as possible. Milburn is superb as the 3rd man up....

Chances are Geelongs defence will strangle us and we wont get up...3 or 4 goals the likely scenario.

 

[G_Money]

I'm confident that the Cats will win for one simple reason - our midfield is much better and deeper than Collingwood's. We all know the names, but here they are again:

Ablett
Bartel
Corey
Ling
Selwood
Chapman
Kelly
Enright
Stokes
Wojcinski
Rooke

That's half the team who can rotate throught the middle and do a good job there.

More numbers, more inside clearance winners, more outside ball carriers, more pace, more excitement, better drilled, harder, more experienced and better looking than the Collingwood midfield.

The dominance will be compounded by the fact that Collingwood don't have an AFL-standard tagger (like Ling, Cornes, Rawlings) to shut one or more of our boys out of the game. And comppounded again by Collingwood's weak ruck division.

Once we have won the clearances, the rest will take care of itself. The Magpies backs will hold their ground for a while, but eventually sheer weight of numbers will see them make mistakes. We will be sending the ball inside fifty at least 60 times on Friday night, and with decent talls and the best small and medium-sized forwards in the league, Collingwood's defence (as good as it is) will struggle.

As for how our backs match up on Collingwood's forwards? It really isn't too important. They just won't see the ball. And when they do, it will be coming in slowly and high. Expect Tom Harley, Darren Milburn and Corey Enright to take mark after mark backing into the packs, or to punch the hospital passes away from Rocca, Cloke and Fraser so our fleet of creative runners can set up forays forward from the half-back line.

'But what about Rusling?' all the Pies fans cry. 'He's so fast. Nobody will beat him on the lead'.

Nobody will have to. He will be frustraded, trying to find space in a crowded forward line, as the Collingwood midfield struggles to bring the ball in with any fluency. Rusling will have next to no impact on the game.

Geelong has the best midfield in the AFL. With Judd's departure from West Coast, any doubt about this has been dispelled. That midfield will set up a victory. And when we win, we win big. I expect the game to be all but over ten minutes into the third quarter, with a final margin of over 12 goals as the young Magpies legs grow weary in the face of a pointless last 45 minutes of their impressive season.

 

[zipper]

A few showers forecast in the afternoon. Will this make a difference?

 

[vealesy]

Personally i think theres too much comparison going on to the last time we met.

That game was a real test for us as clubs were starting to notice us and see us as 'the form side'. And we had to prove it by playing in a finals atmosphere game. Lots of nerves last time and we still won.

The difference in the teams from then is geelong is playing professional amazing football, and the pies only just knocked off a lacklustre eagles.

Friday is a totally different ball game and if the pies have any doubts in themselves, they will get slaughtered.

 

[G.F.C]

What advantage, if any, does Geelong have with Balme in our camp, being with the Pies for so long?

 

[4#Didak#4]

Personally i think theres too much comparison going on to the last time we met.

That game was a real test for us as clubs were starting to notice us and see us as 'the form side'. And we had to prove it by playing in a finals atmosphere game. Lots of nerves last time and we still won.

The difference in the teams from then is geelong is playing professional amazing football, and the pies only just knocked off a lacklustre eagles.

Friday is a totally different ball game and if the pies have any doubts in themselves, they will get slaughtered.

This is just me but don't you think there will be a few more nerves playing a cut throat final that will set up the first grand final victory for your club in 40 years? If nerves were a problem for them last time I would be massively worried.

 

[4#Didak#4]

The dominance will be compounded by the fact that Collingwood don't have an AFL-standard tagger (like Ling, Cornes, Rawlings) to shut one or more of our boys out of the game. And comppounded again by Collingwood's weak ruck division.

This is very true. I never thought I would say this becasue I am not a big fan of his, but a fit Brodie Holland would have been a great match up for Bartel and also Ablett. Our lack of stoppers will hurt us. The best thing we can do is go hard the other way & have a midfield shoot out and see who can kick the most goals.

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Overall it is easy to say the Cats are the better side & thus will win, full of stars & no weaknesses. But on paper Forward & Back match ups are very even. This game will be won or lost in the middle.

Collingwood actually have good match ups for all the Cats forwards, if the ball isn't coming in as much as it was against the Roos they will hold up fine.

The Cats backs did a great job last game against the Pies, but this time around there is Didak getting back in form, Rusling & Buckley to contend with plus Egan is out. So on paper maybe an edge to the Pies here. If the forwards can get supply they will cause the Cats big headaches. There is enough firepower there to give the Cats defenders a lot of nerves when running off their players as they love to do. Should the Pies snag a few early goals it will badly effect the way this very good defence plays & links with the mids.

So it comes down to the middle and this is where the Cats have an overwhelming advantage. They should win enough of the ball to give their forwards oppurtunities with Bartel & Ablett etc etc. The Pies will not shut them down enough as West Coast mids had a mountain of the ball last week & this is a better midfield this week. The Cats will be dominant in the ruck with a half fit Fraser and a raw Richards. Fraser & Ottens will both try & get forward to stretch the respective defences. But overall expect that the Cats midfield will get great service from their rucks as Cox gave WC plenty of advantage last week.

However the game is not lost if the Cats do get a lot of ball as the WC game showed. If the Pies can get it going enough the other way they can hurt you from limited oppurtunities (provided kicking relatively straight).

So I think the game hinges on whether they prevent the Pies getting enough ball to hurt them the other way. With Ling & co the answer should be yes, plus the Cats should have extra run in their legs. The Pies are even in the middle & will rely on heavy tackling & pressure to turn the ball over plus a lot of rotations off the bench. Enright & Corey are very important players in making sure the opposition can't run freely.

The key ball winner in the middle for the Pies will be Pendlebury he is creative & opens play up for the Pies. Would be tempted on playing Selwood defensively on him if I were the Cats not that Selwood is a better player but Pendles is a more valueable player to his side. Plus would be a fascinating match up for the fans!

If the mids are getting stopped which I would expect, then the Pies have some X factor in the middle. If Didak does what he did last week he will cause chaos and Buckley with a few weeks match fitness can push in the middle more. They are 2 genuine great ball users & winners. If the rest of the mids can break even and these two get involved anything could happen.

Should the Pies get a great start then it will be game on. The Cats have some massive advantages in confidence and the week off, they must capitalise on this early. They can also be their biggest weakness. Confidence can quickly evaporate in front of 90,000 people and you have a bad start to the game. The week off may also leave them a feeling a little too relaxed and happy to think that they will run the Pies down in the last half.

My tip the Cats by 15 points.

I think this sums it up nicely. Collingwood have the players to trouble Geelong at either end of the ground. But for them to come into play we have to achieve at least parity in the midfield, and that's the problem. Geelong are deeper, better, and more seasoned in the midfield than we are. We'd need Swan to break the Ling tag and at least a couple of Burns, Pendlebury, Didak, Lockyer, and O'Bree to play ripping midfield matches. It's not impossible, but the odds are stacked against us.

If we can compete in the middle, we'll need at least a couple of our big forwards to play well, not least because that brings our small forwards into play -- and I could see the likes of Thomas, Didak (when he plays forward), Davis, and Medhurst doing a lot of damage if they get supply and if our big forwards can hit the contest hard.

Geelong are, and deserve to be, red-hot favourites. But Collingwood are a plausible chance at pulling off an upset.

I just hope the match lives up to the occasion. If it does, it'll be one to remember.

 

[afl genius]

Chapman and Stokes to break lose

also not mentioned but i think Rooke plays a massive role, will shut down either Didak or Thomas

 

[Ricketts]

I'd put Ling on Pendlebury, youth and inexperience aside, he's their best midfielder.

And Rooke on Didak. Didak will be around both the midfield and forward line and Rooke can go with that.

Someone mentioned in another thread that Pendlebury, Didak, Thomas and Buckley are the class and skill in the side, with the rest being the grunt, unflashy, not as classy players (Burns, Swan, OBree, Lockyer). So aim to stop those first 4 as the priority.

I'm tipping the Pies though...

 

[year of the cat]

LAST TIME these two teams played:

Geelong:

Milburn Scarlett Enright
Mackie Egan Harley
Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Chapman Mooney G.Ablett
S. Johnson Ottens Hawkins
Blake Ling Selwood
Varcoe, Hunt, Kelly, Stokes

THE DIFFERENCE - OUT: Hawkins, Egan, Varcoe

Collingwood
Lockyer Wakelin O'Brien
H.Shaw Goldsack Maxwell
Iles Pendlebury B.Johnson
Thomas Cloke Licuria
Didak Rocca Medhurst
Fraser O'Bree Swan
Davis, Burns, Bryan, Clarke

THE DIFFERENCE - OUT: B.Johnson, Iles

The Geelong side is not much different, Collingwood has Clement and Buckley available (maybe more). Collingwood has more coming in than Geelong.

How will it go?

Sensible Collingwood supporters welcome to contribute. I think Geelong can win, but it won't be a blow-out.

So in for the cats are N.Ablett, Rooke and probably Byrnes. From memory Nathan was a late withdrawal last time, with his replacement Hawkins having little impact. Rookes inclusion cannot be underestimated. Assuming he is better for the run, he has the ability to close down a Didak, Pendelbury or Thomas but at the same time push forward and kick goals. I like the idea of him playing on Pendelbury - he is not overly quick and Rooke can smash him every time he touches the footy. Pendelbury is their playmaker who normally uses the footy well and would have a high inside 50 count.

 

[vealesy]

This is just me but don't you think there will be a few more nerves playing a cut throat final that will set up the first grand final victory for your club in 40 years? If nerves were a problem for them last time I would be massively worried.

nah a different type of nerves, i spose i mean that they were just realising that they had confidence in each other, where as now it is cemented that it works.

the best thing i saw at the kangaroos game was the huddle held after the game. it shows their attitude.

oh and THAT team goal.

 

[Asty]

I think they match up reasonably well on paper the main difference this year is consistency. The geelong players up to now have played v.few bad games as individuals since round 5 while some of the collingwood players have been a little more up and down eg. rocca and cloke can have off games.

If collingwood come out and play near there top then it will be a close game. If a couple of their key players are quiet they will struggle.

Alternatively if collingwood are on top of their game and a few cats go quiet then collingwood are a real shot of taking the GF berth.

Nothing is set in stone and could come down to which team is in the right frame of mind come the 1st bounce down.

I think if it close the cats will have the edge with the weeks rest and pies playing extra time but ... If collingwood can jump early then they may be able to lower the heads of the cats players while riding on adrenaline themselves.

I personally, with a very major bias, think the cats by 21-30.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I have to say this, BOTH teams will have their workcut out. Most of what I have read around the forum is that the Pies will have to stop the Cats midfield, but Didak, Swan and Pendlebury are gonna be able to turn it up. I think the backlines will quite comfortably beat the two forwardlines, so that should keep the scores nice and close. The thing is, Collingwood are an ACCOUNTABLE unit, so we're not going to let the Cats slip our guard too easy. It should be an absolute cracker, and it'll go down to the wire. Ultimately, I think the Catse might just sneak over the line.

Geelong by 13.

 

[cat in sydney]

I think if it close the cats will have the edge with the weeks rest and pies playing extra time but ... If collingwood can jump early then they may be able to lower the heads of the cats players while riding on adrenaline themselves.

For me, that's the only real chance the Pies have. They need to put early pressure on us, and be at least 4 goals up during the second quarter. If we're closer, or in front, the early nerves would have settled, we'll have confidence in the game plan, and put the pedal to the metal.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Geelong's ABC

Their ABC trio are the key to the match on Friday. If the Pies can shut down

Ablett
Bartel and
Cam Mooney

We're in with a chance. If we can't, think of the Kangas match. But Lockyer should be able to provide enough pace to shut down Ablett, and Bartel might get heavily knocked around by Bartel. All reports are, Holland is fit and available. Might the Pies try to take Ablett out with him? It'd be very dirty play to say the least, and could backfire. Ablett's a tough little trooper, and remember the Kangas "intimidation" before the game.

Cam is the X factor, because, besides perhaps Clement, he has too much strength and pace. The thing is, utilizing Clement as a tagger denies the Pies dash. Although, if these three can be shut down, it'll help the Pies.

In any case, It'll be a cracker, and good luck

 

[Mooney_d'King]

Re: Geelong's ABC

So Holland plays a couple of games a year then Collingwood bring him in as a head-smasher for a final? So he's prepared to be the sacrificial lamb by getting rubbed out for weeks like he did against Monty during last years Bulldogs final?

I hope not, what a dirty disgusting way to play that would be.

As far as shutting down Ablett, Bartel and Cam, that would certainly help your chances but it's a big ask.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Re: Geelong's ABC

I wasn't supporting a Holland headhunt, merely pointing out the dangers involved with one if Collingwood went for one. Think Brown v Burns in the 03 GF, Holland v Montgomery, Watt v Mooney. in all 3 cases, the instigators team lost, and it's because they were playing a spirited team that keep focused on the job, instead of going for easy hits. TBH, I think if we tried it, we'd get smashed. It'd make yous play at 110%, and 100 is scary enough,

Those three are the dangers, but thats not to say I don't rate Wojy, Corey, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Byrnes and co. Very talented core. Shutting them down won't be an easy task, but we are a very committed team outfit.

May the better team win.

 

[catempire]

My perspective:

I have no doubt that the Pies are a good “on-paper” match up for Geelong. They have the forward line height and flair that is most likely to trouble Geelong’s defence, especially sans-Egan and with a susceptible Josh Hunt. They have a good defensive mix with enough height and versatility through Clement, Wakelin and O’Brien and enough run through Shaw, Clarke and Lockyer. The midfield, while lacking the depth of Geelong’s, still boasts quality players and users in Burns, Buckley, Didak, Pendlebury and Swan.

Geelong has good match-ups in all of these areas so I don’t think it’s a case of saying either team has a decisive edge in any area of the ground, again “on-paper”.

The reason Geelong has won so many games this season is the way they have clicked as a team and the way they have blown oppositions apart.

Geelong look to jump from the blocks and pile on scoreboard pressure early (Geelong have lost only 3 out of 23 first quarters this year). They will pump the ball forward quickly and regularly hoping to overwhelm the opposition’s defence. They will isolate Mooney one-on-one because he loves the ball high and long. Wakelin will need assistance from a third man up. Johnson and Stokes have been very dangerous at the spills.

They will rebound the ball extremely well from their own defensive half. Scarlett, Harley and Milburn are excellent in the air so Collingwood will need to avoid bombing the ball indiscriminately. Once in possession, the ball is fed out to the likes of Enright, Mackie and Wojcinski who carry the ball toward the centre of the ground and look for midfield targets. Geelong play on at all costs. They don’t give the opposition a chance to man the mark or to pick up a player who has broken free ahead of the play. By keeping the ball hot, the opposition doesn’t get a chance to close the play down. The ball is put in the hands of Ablett, Mackie and Selwood to move the ball inside 50 as they do it so well.

Collingwood thrive on keeping the game tight and under pressure. If they can manage to do this for four quarters they are in with a big show. It’s a massive ask though. Geelong’s style of game is to absorb pressure (don’t be under any illusion that they can’t do this – they are one of the best pressure teams going around) and break the game open when the opportunity arises. In games when they were able to get away frequently the margins were enormous. In games when the opposition did well to shut it down, two or three ten minute bursts were usually enough to put a gap between Geelong and the opposition. Can Collingwood hurt Geelong enough when the game is tight and limit the number and duration of the periods when Geelong breaks free? This is the key in my mind.

Then there is the fitness and preparation issue. Geelong have had a near-ideal preparation with only Egan missing from the best 22 and a week off to rest the niggles. As an already super-fit side, they couldn’t ask for a better preparation. Collingwood on the other hand, have acknowledged that they are up against it with their “low-altitude” return from Perth after a game that went to extra time. They ran that one out well, but at this stage of the season, a big question mark must remain over whether they have the run in their legs to stop Geelong.

 

[Budda 230]

Re: Geelong's ABC

Fraser vs Ottens is also going to be a match defining match up. If Ottens has too much influence in the ruck, Collingwood will struggle to get close.

 

[CF]

Re: Geelong's ABC

shut down Ablett and bartel (if you can) and then AA Joel Corey with the like of Corey Enright, Andrew Mackie, Max Rooke, David Wocjinski, Joel Selwood and james Kelly step up

Sut down Mooney and AA Steve Johnson with Paul Chapman, Matthew Stokes, Nathan Ablett, James kelly, Otto all step up

If beating us was just as simple as shutting down a few players then we wouldn't be on top of the ladder. When the commentators say we have very few, if any, weaknesses they aren't just chgewing the breeze. It is absolutely the truth.

Good luck to you though.

 

[catempire]

Re: Geelong's ABC

As in my post above, the key for Collingwood is to shut down the play as shutting down players is not only too difficult but futile when the team plays so well as a unit.

 

[doppleganger]

A few showers forecast in the afternoon. Will this make a difference?

Geelong should be praying it rains i reckon.

When it rains the rucks become much more of a bigger influence - Ottens & Blake will hurt us

Geelong have blokes like Bartel, Ablett, Chapman who love the wet

Our big guys up forward Rocca and T.Cloke will have an even tougher time of it.

Collingwood also likes to possess the ball and chip it around the wings, if it is wet this will be harder..........while Geelong just run in waves up the middle of the ground.

Pies need it to be dry to win, and even then it will be tough

 

[angel_mmkay]

i think we have an awesome line up and i pity malthouse having to decide who to tag and who not too. either way the players he doesnt tag will step up and go hard.

I have to say i am a very nervous geelong supporter atm. the trying to keep the lid on and be confidant at the same time is like walking a tightrope lol