Lights Out!

[aCunningPlan]

What does France have to do with the fact that SA can't meet baseload power demands because they don't have adequate fallback supply?

But they do have fallback supply, yesterday proves they did! the federal regulator was instructed to turn on additional generators and they had no issues. The problem was the federal body thinking turning off lights is better than turning on generators.

 

[Green Hammer]

What does France have to do with the fact that SA can't meet baseload power demands because they don't have adequate fallback supply?

And then this neo liberal guy complains the energy market has been privatised

 

[Ned_Flanders]

from what we're hearing here in the west about SA was pelican point. essentially pelican point didn't switch on due to poor contracting and what I would term "power supply waterfall".

Essentially Pelican Point isn't interested in being the "root" when the renewables bride doesn't put out.

Not quite, the sa minister just explained this in detail onAM. Im paraphrasing, but this os the jist of what he said.

With the national market, producers choose whether to participate or not based upon pricing and other factors.

Pelican Point chose NOT to turn on its second generator.

Now there is a fail safe. If a shortfall is likely, the national regulator can order companies to turn generators on.

Now comes this s**t fight

National regulator says it needed an instruction from the sa minister to do this, and without this their hands were tied.

Sa minister said this is bullshit. Point of the national regulator was to take this call away from the states, and the states can only intervene in an emergency, and an extreme weather event isnt an emergency

He also seemed to hint this was a political play by canberra. That hunt was using blackouts as a weapon to force states to back down on renewable targets and gas permits. I hope this is wrong, because if hunt is creating shortages for political reasons it is contemptable

 

[Lebbo73]

They do. They have standby generation capacity at Pelican point, but the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has to order the operator to commence supply to the grid, but instead on Wednesday they (AEMO) choose the option of shedding customers.

That must be why Jay Weatherill was on the TV yesterday talking all sheepishly and promising to fix the problem.

 

[Power Raid]

Not quite, the sa minister just explained this in detail onAM. Im paraphrasing, but this os the jist of what he said.

With the national market, producers choose whether to participate or not based upon pricing and other factors.

Pelican Point chose NOT to turn on its second generator.

Now there is a fail safe. If a shortfall is likely, the national regulator can order companies to turn generators on.

Now comes this s**t fight

National regulator says it needed an instruction from the sa minister to do this, and without this their hands were tied.

Sa minister said this is bullshit. Point of the national regulator was to take this call away from the states, and the states can only intervene in an emergency, and an extreme weather event isnt an emergency

He also seemed to hint this was a political play by canberra. That hunt was using blackouts as a weapon to force states to back down on renewable targets and gas permits. I hope this is wrong, because if hunt is creating shortages for political reasons it is contemptable

But why was pelican point off in the first place? Was it because SA was buying renewables in priority?

 

[Norwegian Blue]

I work in the power industry and I must admit to a bit of schadenfreude at the SA predicament. They've mindlessly added windfarm after windfarm, allowing baseload to be priced out of the market. And then this happens (source IES):

At around 7pm, demand goes through the roof just as the wind doesn't blow and 90,000 customers lose power. Wind has its place but when you use it to displace baseload with no backup plan, you're asking for trouble, which is what the industry has been saying for years.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

But why was pelican point off in the first place? Was it because SA was buying renewables in priority?

No

Its a national market, not state based

Purely at a guess (100% guess):

1) there is a cost for running the generator, and the price for "just in case we need it" power may not hsve covered it

2) there wasnt a 100% lock a shortage would occur (???)

3) they want to be forced

To explain (3), they had thr engineers on site, and everyone there was ready to turn it on. They were waiting for the call. Private operators are loathe to operate at certain profit margins, and this may have been their managements way of doing it "sorry french bosses, we had no choice!"

Again, 100% speculation

The sa minister also complained the exchange was more like thr stock market now, and not the management of power resources

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I work in the power industry and I must admit to a bit of schadenfreude at the SA predicament. They've mindlessly added windfarm after windfarm, allowing baseload to be priced out of the market. And then this happens (source IES):

At around 7pm, demand goes through the roof just as the wind doesn't blow and 90,000 customers lose power. Wind has its place but when you use it to displace baseload with no backup plan, you're asking for trouble, which is what the industry has been saying for years.

Is pelican point not in sa?

 

[Puddy]

This green ideology that the ruling elite have in South Australiais is very dangerous. Time to go nuclear

 

[Xsess]

Perhaps they should round up all of South Australia's dole bludgers and get them peddling bikes hooked up to turbines when it can be predicted that wind power will fail (ie when its windy, not windy hot or cold).

 

[Power Raid]

No

Its a national market, not state based

Purely at a guess (100% guess):

1) there is a cost for running the generator, and the price for "just in case we need it" power may not hsve covered it

2) there wasnt a 100% lock a shortage would occur (???)

3) they want to be forced

To explain (3), they had thr engineers on site, and everyone there was ready to turn it on. They were waiting for the call. Private operators are loathe to operate at certain profit margins, and this may have been their managements way of doing it "sorry french bosses, we had no choice!"

Again, 100% speculation

The sa minister also complained the exchange was more like thr stock market now, and not the management of power resources

Thanks

I will see if I can find the article but from what I read, the power stations have decided not to deliver power into the market as the renewables have preference.

This is the power supply waterfall which does three things:

1) makes renewables more financially viable than what they really are
2) increases the cost of gas and other sources as they still have to cover fixed costs but on an under utilised basis
3) turns gas from a reliable source and low cost management focus to an adversarial opportunistic focus

 

[NSWCROW]

Yep. It is one big cycle to the bottom. The poorer they get, the more likely they will keep supporting those who throw them the most welfare.
NSWCROW should be right. I don't think there was any sport on that he would have missed with the power failing.

Lucky i live in sydney you pigeon-toed Pea-brain !!!!



Not fussed but , Hindenburg said on the Waleed show last night that NSW should be ok today......
Useless * couldn't answer a simple question about Trump last week yet had ALLLLL the answers last night when it came to this issue.......

He's a crab.
I was right all along , the Chairman surrounded himself with the worst front bench he could pick all to make himself appear half-decent , which he's failed horribly at.

" I'M SO RICH AND LOLLLLLLLL BILL ISNT !!!! "


Then Hillsong Scotty brings a lump of coal to parliment with him , new LNP logo fer sher.

They're a disgrace.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Thanks

I will see if I can find the article but from what I read, the power stations have decided not to deliver power into the market as the renewables have preference.

This is the power supply waterfall which does three things:

1) makes renewables more financially viable than what they really are
2) increases the cost of gas and other sources as they still have to cover fixed costs but on an under utilised basis
3) turns gas from a reliable source and low cost management focus to an adversarial opportunistic focus

Its a pricing thing. If renewables are cheaper (for instance) they will be bought over coal and gas

Its not a sa thing as far as i understand, its like selling your power at an ebay auction, and the buyers buying up the chunks they want

 

[Power Raid]

Because it was a commercial decision by the owners of Pelican point to not contract a guaranteed source of gas to power their station, something the regulator demands as a condition to be a standby generator.

This sounds logical and highlights the flaws in the contracting system.

SA wants to buy renewables in preference but doesn't want to enter into take or pay contracts with the power station.

Then still expects the power station to enter into take or pay contracts for gas.

 

[Power Raid]

Its a pricing thing. If renewables are cheaper (for instance) they will be bought over coal and gas

Its not a sa thing as far as i understand, its like selling your power at an ebay auction, and the buyers buying up the chunks they want

Fair enough if true but that's different to what I've read and defies the economics of renewables.

 

[Kram]

Perhaps they should round up all of South Australia's dole bludgers and get them peddling bikes hooked up to turbines when it can be predicted that wind power will fail (ie when its windy, not windy hot or cold).

Who is going to grow all the weed then.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Fair enough if true but that's different to what I've read and defies the economics of renewables.

As i said, i dont know how the pricing works and what various power units wholesale at

All they have said is its like a stock market, with the utilities selling power in various lots to the buyers on a national platform.

With the renewable issue, 100% ignorant it could work like this. When the sun his shining etc, they have to dump the produxt. They cannot turn off the generator and save the coal, they have to sell now. This forces you to discount as you are a motivated seller. Gas and coal and hold off until the renewables "turn off" and up the prices because they face less competition.

Remember the sellers want to maxmize the margin the get - not necessarily sell the most

 

[Norwegian Blue]

This sounds logical and highlights the flaws in the contracting system.

SA wants to buy renewables in preference but doesn't want to enter into take or pay contracts with the power station.

Then still expects the power station to enter into take or pay contracts for gas.

Which is why they withdrew from the market and waited for a direction from AEMO. Once the direction was issued ALL of Pelican Point's costs, including uncontracted gas, were covered, ultimately by the taxpayer.

 

[Power Raid]

I work in the power industry and I must admit to a bit of schadenfreude at the SA predicament. They've mindlessly added windfarm after windfarm, allowing baseload to be priced out of the market. And then this happens (source IES):

At around 7pm, demand goes through the roof just as the wind doesn't blow and 90,000 customers lose power. Wind has its place but when you use it to displace baseload with no backup plan, you're asking for trouble, which is what the industry has been saying for years.

yep

so in the real world we manage the delivery of power to meet demand. this includes having reliable base load with peaking.

In SA they favour unreliable power generation, fk over base load and treat peaking like the girl on the side. Then instead of managing supply, they manage demand by brown outs and black outs.

but hey, give the people want they want........but it is bizarre that SA expects the rest of Australia to keep paying for their choices and gets defensive when its questioned.

 

[Power Raid]

As i said, i dont know how the pricing works and what various power units wholesale at

All they have said is its like a stock market, with the utilities selling power in various lots to the buyers on a national platform.

With the renewable issue, 100% ignorant it could work like this. When the sun his shining etc, they have to dump the produxt. They cannot turn off the generator and save the coal, they have to sell now. This forces you to discount as you are a motivated seller. Gas and coal and hold off until the renewables "turn off" and up the prices because they face less competition.

Remember the sellers want to maxmize the margin the get - not necessarily sell the most

one of the rorts we had here in the west, which has now come to an end, was our coal on a cost plus model.

The owner, Rick Stowe was on a 15% cost plus meaning the higher the cost, the bigger the base for the 15%. The unions wanted 8 hour work days with hand over off site........no problem! The mine would shut down and then restart meaning 35% inefficiency was achieved! unions wanted 50% above award.......no problem!

so yes, Rick was not incentivized by quantity but motivated by profit.



The same thing is happening in SA and the question is, who's fault is it? The socialists will say the operators where the commercial people around the table would say.......which moron signed this contract?

We need common sense in power, not politics. This is a non-issue as it would take 5 minutes to fix and 3 months to implement. Let's see how long it takes politicians to resolve.

 

[Gough]

NSW been warned that they may have black outs today too, surprised there's been no comment on that. What's their power generation mix?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

one of the rorts we had here in the west, which has now come to an end, was our coal on a cost plus model.

The owner, Rick Stowe was on a 15% cost plus meaning the higher the cost, the bigger the base for the 15%. The unions wanted 8 hour work days with hand over off site........no problem! The mine would shut down and then restart meaning 35% inefficiency was achieved! unions wanted 50% above award.......no problem!

so yes, Rick was not incentivized by quantity but motivated by profit.



The same thing is happening in SA and the question is, who's fault is it? The socialists will say the operators where the commercial people around the table would say.......which moron signed this contract?

We need common sense in power, not politics. This is a non-issue as it would take 5 minutes to fix and 3 months to implement. Let's see how long it takes politicians to resolve.

The whole point of the national grid is to allow power deficit states (ie sa) to get access to power from power surplus states (ie tassie). It was to get away from the state based politics vic and nsw were famous for.

Solution is simple. National regulator has one over arching mission - to ensure the constant and ongoing availability of power to all australians on the grid. Leaving generators off in sa when sa is on the verge of a shortage is just baffling

 

[Ned_Flanders]

NSW been warned that they may have black outs today too, surprised there's been no comment on that. What's their power generation mix?

Wait... Wait...


SYDNEY MIGHT BE AFFECTED?!?!!!!!!?!!!!???

WHY HAS THIS SERIOUS ISSUE NOT BEEN FIXED?!?!?!!!!!!!

 

[Power Raid]

The whole point of the national grid is to allow power deficit states (ie sa) to get access to power from power surplus states (ie tassie). It was to get away from the state based politics vic and nsw were famous for.

Solution is simple. National regulator has one over arching mission - to ensure the constant and ongoing availability of power to all australians on the grid. Leaving generators off in sa when sa is on the verge of a shortage is just baffling

100%

by changing the mandate of the energy regulator, this problem would go away over night.

It would not be politically popular and questions would be asked, when the transparency is laid out for all to see, about the billions wasted and the billions to be paid out in lost contracts to renewables.

FTR renewable technology is fantastic and the future. what is dreadfully wrong is the politics behind renewables which promoted it as something it isn't. The system was changed to put renewables first and the cost is becoming all too clear to see.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

100%

by changing the mandate of the energy regulator, this problem would go away over night.

It would not be politically popular and questions would be asked, when the transparency is laid out for all to see, about the billions wasted and the billions to be paid out in lost contracts to renewables.

FTR renewable technology is fantastic and the future. what is dreadfully wrong is the politics behind renewables which promoted it as something it isn't. The system was changed to put renewables first and the cost is becoming all too clear to see.

This wont change s**t about renewables. As the otyer guy posted, apparently pp was off because if ordered on the feds pick up the bill. That wont change - renewable or not.

This is all about maximizing profits, nothing more (for the producers - polis have their own game going on)