Analysis Lin Jong 2017

[BRWB]

Do you have the full 2016 B&F result? I can only find 2015 which had him 16th (funnily enough above Roughhead and Toyd on less games) would just be interested to compare how they moved from 15 to 16.

It's in the B and F thread I think not sure where else.

Jong's trend is clearly downward relative to the rest of the list in terms of how the MC see his performance.

Prediction?

 

[BRWB]

I could equally point out two individual clangers from virtually every other player in the competition.

I'm unsure about how the coaches assess best and fairest votes so I can't comment on them.

Jong had 7 clangers against the Saints.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I could equally point out two individual clangers from virtually every other player in the competition.

I'm unsure about how the coaches assess best and fairest votes so I can't comment on them.

Further to this - there's no evidence that he plays a particularly clanger-heavy style of play.

Among 529 players in the competition who played at least 5 games, he ranks 263 in clangers per disposal, or in other words, a smidgen in the better half of the competition. He's literally league average in how often he commits a clanger.

If you factor in the fact that there's a correlation between those who win more of their possessions contested (like Jong) and how often they commit clangers, Jong is actually significantly below the league average with how often he commits clangers - he'd be expected to commit a clanger about once every 5 disposals given how often his contested possession rate, as opposed to about the twice in 15 that he did during 2016.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Jong had 7 clangers against the Saints.

He also had 7, 8 if you include the injured game against West Coast, where he had 0 or 1 clanger.

Also see my post above.

Ergo more than half his games he had no more than 1 clanger.

 

[BRWB]

He also had 7, 8 if you include the injured game against West Coast, where he had 0 or 1 clanger.

Also see my post above.

Ergo more than half his games he had no more than 1 clanger.

M8 this is where stats watching falls down. Ive lost count of the amount of times Jong fumbles and the side loses momentum. He may recover and shoot a bullet handball to a teammates feet 1m away who is good enough to collect it, and that may be seen as a points gaining possie and not a Clanger. But it's still s**t footy.

Look imo there are two players at our club who are able to stuff up hugely. Roberts however benefits from our system as while poor one on one, he is smart and a safe kick.

Jong has the worst hands of the mids at our club. His inability to be clean often frustrated our ball movement and works against our handball club system.

And by the way it's not delusional to not rate Jong. Our MC who are paid bucket loads to professionally develop and assess our players don't rate him relative to our other players either.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

M8 this is where stats watching falls down. Ive lost count of the amount of times Jong fumbles and the side loses momentum. He may recover and shoot a bullet handball to a teammates feet 1m away who is good enough to collect it, and that may be seen as a points gaining possie and not a Clanger. But it's still s**t footy.

Look imo there are two players at our club who are able to stuff up hugely. Roberts however benefits from our system as while poor one on one, he is smart and a safe kick.

Jong has the worst hands of the mids at our club. His inability to be clean often frustrated our ball movement and works against our handball club system.

And by the way it's not delusional to not rate Jong. Our MC who are paid bucket loads to professionally develop and assess our players don't rate him relative to our other players either.

I'd much rather the clanger statistics, that are applied equally to all players. There's cognitive biases with how you watch Jong, you already don't rate him, so of course you're going to notice his failures more often than you do other players. There's nothing wrong with that, we all do it, we can all fall into the trap of cognitive biases, but that's why we have statistics, which don't have cognitive biases, and the statistics show that he is actually a better player than league average in terms of how often he commits clangers.

 

[BRWB]

I'd much rather the clanger statistics, that are applied equally to all players. There's cognitive biases with how you watch Jong, you already don't rate him, so of course you're going to notice his failures more often than you do other players. There's nothing wrong with that, we all do it, we can all fall into the trap of cognitive biases, but that's why we have statistics, which don't have cognitive biases, and the statistics show that he is actually a better player than league average in terms of how often he commits clangers.

And Jong is a great eg of why stats are flawed.

Anyway m8 - what is your prediction for him this yr?

(And injuries can't be an excuse as I consider his durability to be another weakness)

<25th B and F
12 games or less.
And seeks a trade.

 

[Mutt]

And Jong is a great eg of why stats are flawed.

Anyway m8 - what is your prediction for him this yr?

(And injuries can't be an excuse as I consider his durability to be another weakness)

<25th B and F
12 games or less.
And seeks a trade.

You seem to have a lot invested in seeing Jong fail. I don't understand.

 

[BRWB]

You seem to have a lot invested in seeing Jong fail. I don't understand.

Love him to prove me wrong.

 

[Mutt]

Love him to prove me wrong.

I really enjoy reading your work on here BRWB, even when I don't agree with you (which is rare.) I just can't reconcile the other BRWB with what you are posting in this thread. To each his own though... you have every right to indulge your bizarre deprecation of Lin Jong.

 

[SlimShaddy]

You

And Jong is a great eg of why stats are flawed.

Anyway m8 - what is your prediction for him this yr?

(And injuries can't be an excuse as I consider his durability to be another weakness)

<25th B and F
12 games or less.
And seeks a trade.

You could say the same thing about Hunter last year (up to late in the season) with his constant butchering of the ball with very little to no pressure around him which directly caused goals from turnovers.

Even Macrae's shanks in the forward half which in no uncertain terms botched genuine forward thrusts.

With experience and composure they appear to have improved this. Not sure why Jong cannot.

I think he frustrates everyone because at times during a game he looks ready to explode offensively but will let himself down.

He turned the game against the Pies last season at Etihad from memory with 2 quick goals out of nowhere.

 

[BRWB]

I really enjoy reading your work on here BRWB, even when I don't agree with you (which is rare.) I just can't reconcile the other BRWB with what you are posting in this thread. To each his own though... you have every right to indulge your bizarre deprecation of Lin Jong.

As always m8, I respect your views so I'll give it a rest just for you - say till mid season.

Daniel Hargraves, Boyd the mid and Jong have all annoyed me over the years. All s**t users that hurt us at critical times in games IMO.

I find Jong is a great example of stats lying about a players impact. The discrepancy between AFL rankings and the MC's ratings last year does probably intrigue me more than most I admit.

Interesting that Jong's MC rating as seen in the B and F went down last year in correlation with the increase in our handball club game style. IMO Jong's poor hands were the key reason for this.

If you find that bizarre, so be it.

You


You could say the same thing about Hunter last year (up to late in the season) with his constant butchering of the ball with very little to no pressure around him which directly caused goals from turnovers.

Even Macrae's shanks in the forward half which in no uncertain terms botched genuine forward thrusts.

With experience and composure they appear to have improved this. Not sure why Jong cannot.

I think he frustrates everyone because at times during a game he looks ready to explode offensively but will let himself down.

He turned the game against the Pies last season at Etihad from memory with 2 quick goals out of nowhere.

Interesting comparison. Macrae and Hunter are similar in their ball use by foot maybe even slightly worse technically (Jong a worse decision maker, Macrae's vision is sublime). But their clean hands and higher production fit our game style better than Jong's poor hands and low production IMO. Also they are younger and have more scope to improve (and have already done so) IMO.

 

[Libba39]

I'm no Stephen Hawking Libba but your formula has been disproved many times. We know for certain that J > 0.

Interesting theorem. Indeed some have speculated that MD = 0, while others hypothesise that MD, in the specific case of J, is equal to infinity (or at least an infinite supply of negative posts).

 

[DelRe]

Jong's trend is clearly downward relative to the rest of the list in terms of how the MC see his performance.

I don't see it the same way. I'm not certain on the voting system but I think it's something like up to 5 votes spread across members of MC? What this means is if you perform in the lower half of the team each week you probably get low (if any) overall votes which is exactly what he did. It doesn't really give an insight into the relativities of the lower ranked (i.e. depth/role) players - for that and your argument to hold they would need to rank every player top to bottom each week. He's also been selected for 29 games in Bevs period as coach, increasing to 16 (possibly could have been 19) last year and has been picked in the finals sides when he was available and there was close to a full squad available. On balance I don't think it's a sustainable argument to say the MC don't rate him or that he's going backwards (whatever my thoughts on him are).

I think a better description would be every side has some higher end players, some above average, av, below av etc. Jong is just one of those in the average bracket give or take a bracket depending on your view and the MC undeniably rates him highly enough to get a regular game - or perhaps conversely doesn't yet rate the likes of Williams, Dale, Webb etc highly enough to force him out.

Prediction?

Not sure why you need one but seems a safe prediction that he'll be maligned in this community whichever way it goes! I'm surprised you think he'd go for a trade though having just re-signed. Doesn't really make sense to me to think he would - I think he's made his choice and will see it out. He's a good chance to be picked round one (I didn't have him in my side though) and if he does and those below him don't improve then I expect he'll play quite a few games whatever my view is given he seems to get picked when available.

 

[BRWB]

I don't see it the same way. I'm not certain on the voting system but I think it's something like up to 5 votes spread across members of MC? What this means is if you perform in the lower half of the team each week you probably get low (if any) overall votes which is exactly what he did. It doesn't really give an insight into the relativities of the lower ranked (i.e. depth/role) players - for that and your argument to hold they would need to rank every player top to bottom each week. He's also been selected for 29 games in Bevs period as coach, increasing to 16 (possibly could have been 19) last year and has been picked in the finals sides when he was available and there was close to a full squad available. On balance I don't think it's a sustainable argument to say the MC don't rate him or that he's going backwards (whatever my thoughts on him are).

I think a better description would be every side has some higher end players, some above average, av, below av etc. Jong is just one of those in the average bracket give or take a bracket depending on your view and the MC undeniably rates him highly enough to get a regular game - or perhaps conversely doesn't yet rate the likes of Williams, Dale, Webb etc highly enough to force him out.


Not sure why you need one but seems a safe prediction that he'll be maligned in this community whichever way it goes! I'm surprised you think he'd go for a trade though having just re-signed. Doesn't really make sense to me to think he would - I think he's made his choice and will see it out. He's a good chance to be picked round one (I didn't have him in my side though) and if he does and those below him don't improve then I expect he'll play quite a few games whatever my view is given he seems to get picked when available.

B and F voting

Charles Sutton Medal
How they vote: Coach Luke Beveridge and four assistants each give a vote from zero to five for each player in each game of the season. Players can receive a minimum of zero or maximum of 25 votes for any game.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-09/top-10-best-and-fairest-from-every-club

 

[DelRe]

B and F voting

Charles Sutton Medal
How they vote: Coach Luke Beveridge and four assistants each give a vote from zero to five for each player in each game of the season. Players can receive a minimum of zero or maximum of 25 votes for any game.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-09/top-10-best-and-fairest-from-every-club

I think I misread this initially. I think this could help your argument that his performance was not rated 'highly' but shouldn't that be obvious/expected for a lower ranked player anyway?

Plus the B&F results need some context. Bont won by a comfortable margin and is considered in the top 10 AFL players under some systems but he averaged only just under 2.5/5votes per coach per game. So potentially he either was very consistently getting 2s and 3s or there were plenty of time he hit the max 25 and other time he may have even got nil.

In other words, even the absolute cream of the side is only getting around 2/5 on av (Morris was about 2 and came second) so getting nil isn't presumably a horrible rating if that makes sense as plenty of players must get them based on the results and so would therefore be expected of a lower end ranking player.

So I'm kind of lost on your point now. Seems you're critcising a lower ranked player for not getting high votes in a B&F but not acknowledging he's obviously getting rated enough by the MC to get picked in finals sides.

None of this is about my view on Jong I just don't see the sustainable argument for the criticism you're making.

 

[BRWB]

I think I misread this initially. I think this could help your argument that his performance was not rated 'highly' but shouldn't that be obvious/expected for a lower ranked player anyway?

Plus the B&F results need some context. Bont won by a comfortable margin and is considered in the top 10 AFL players under some systems but he averaged only just under 2.5/5votes per coach per game. So potentially he either was very consistently getting 2s and 3s or there were plenty of time he hit the max 25 and other time he may have even got nil.

In other words, even the absolute cream of the side is only getting around 2/5 on av (Morris was about 2 and came second) so getting nil isn't presumably a horrible rating if that makes sense as plenty of players must get them based on the results and so would therefore be expected of a lower end ranking player.

So I'm kind of lost on your point now. Seems you're critcising a lower ranked player for not getting high votes in a B&F but not acknowledging he's obviously getting rated enough by the MC to get picked in finals sides.

None of this is about my view on Jong I just don't see the sustainable argument for the criticism you're making.

In five years on our list - Jong has played 39 games. He hasn't been picked that often.

B and F is a relativity measure of how the MC rates a player. On straight votes Jong is 27th. On a votes per game he is even more lowly ranked. Of our established players who've been on our list for four years or more, Jong is just about the lowest rated player on our list by the MC.

The MC don't hate him (nor do I), the MC just don't rate him relative to other players.

That isn't an 'unsustainable' view - it's just factual.

It really is that simple.

 

[bresker]

Wow. How someone could argue we won because of his injury, not in spite of it, just shows the level of delusion and hate. It's completely unwarranted and it just disgusts me that we have supporters out there like that. A sad indictment on a person's life in my opinion.

Not trying to step on the moderators toes, but if we keep the discussion to Jong himself, rather than what one poster or another thinks about Jong, this thread has a chance of surviving.

Play the ball not the man, even when provoked.

Thanks to everyone for engaging in civilised discussion so far.

Does Jong get marked harder than other players? It seems to me that his clangers are highlighted more than, say, his running goals. I have to admit I do the same. It seems like his mistakes are especially glaring. It's a toss up between him and Suckling as to which player I find most frustrating.

If the Bont is a player who can make time stand still with ball in hand, Jong is the opposite. When he's got time and space he frequently turns into a headless chook and butchers it. I'm not sure calmness is a skill you can easily teach.

 

[doggies ftw]

And Jong is a great eg of why stats are flawed.

Anyway m8 - what is your prediction for him this yr?

(And injuries can't be an excuse as I consider his durability to be another weakness)

<25th B and F
12 games or less.
And seeks a trade.

Broken hand, broken collarbone, broken leg. That damn Jongy is made of glass, huge weakness. Wouldn't have anything to do with them being unfortunate impact injuries or anything

 

[BRWB]

Broken hand, broken collarbone, broken leg. That damn Jongy is made of glass, huge weakness. Wouldn't have anything to do with them being unfortunate impact injuries or anything

Plus OP.

Some blokes are just unlucky I guess.

 

[DelRe]

In five years on our list - Jong has played 39 games. He hasn't been picked that often.

B and F is a relativity measure of how the MC rates a player. On straight votes Jong is 27th. On a votes per game he is even more lowly ranked. Of our established players who've been on our list for four years or more, Jong is just about the lowest rated player on our list by the MC.

The MC don't hate him (nor do I), the MC just don't rate him relative to other players.

That isn't an 'unsustainable' view - it's just factual.

It really is that simple.

Well of course the MC don't rate him as highly as other players; that's a bit of a water is wet type of statement. But to say he's not selected that often is misleading - under the current coaching set up of past two years he's been selected 29 times including 16 last year and is undeniably regularly picked by Bev when he's available including in finals teams.

The B&F comment is also misleading because they don't simply rank players top to bottom - it would also mean Morris is the 2nd best player in the team, Jong was 16th last year and better than Roughead, and Cordy is not in our top 30 players - there's too much fluctuation to place that much weight on the B&F outcome as an absolute rating. It's very easily distorted by the nature of the voting system.

Your criticism has been that he actively turns games against the Dogs and that his B&F result is incredibly poor. I don't see the evidence for that to make it a sustainable argument.

 

[BRWB]

Well of course the MC don't rate him as highly as other players; that's a bit of a water is wet type of statement. But to say he's not selected that often is misleading - under the current coaching set up of past two years he's been selected 29 times including 16 last year and is undeniably regularly picked by Bev when he's available including in finals teams.

The B&F comment is also misleading because they don't simply rank players top to bottom - it would also mean Morris is the 2nd best player in the team, Jong was 16th last year and better than Roughead, and Cordy is not in our top 30 players - there's too much fluctuation to place that much weight on the B&F outcome as an absolute rating. It's very easily distorted by the nature of the voting system.

Your criticism has been that he actively turns games against the Dogs and that his B&F result is incredibly poor. I don't see the evidence for that to make it a sustainable argument.

Yeah nah. I think you are distorting things to suit your own argument - an argument which is self contradictory anyway IMO.

So agree to disagree on this one.

 

[DelRe]

Yeah nah. I think you are distorting things to suit your own argument - an argument which is self contradictory anyway IMO.

So agree to disagree on this one.

Which bits the distortion and self contradiction? No need to give up on the discussion.

 

[The Original Swooper]

I blame Shaun Higgins and Ayce Cordy. They were great whipping boys. All we have now is poor Lin and newbie Dec Hamilton. We need to recruit a legit spud in the next trade period

 

[BRWB]

Which bits the distortion and self contradiction? No need to give up on the discussion.

Distortion - the B and F is the most accurate publicly available measure of how the club relatively rated its players. Players' bonuses can be tied to their placing, so it is viewed seriously. To imply it's not an adequate or reliable measure of player performance as seen by the club is a distortion IMO.

Self contradictory - on the one hand you say that the club rating Jong lowly is like saying 'water is wet', while on the other hand undermining the clubs system for rating him when you state the B and F is subject to fluctuation while implying that it is not a reliable measure of a player, and that relying on the B and F to provide empirical evidence to support a view on a player is unsustainable.

I don't see what is so 'unsustainable' to say that a player rated 27th in the B and F (and lower on a votes per game basis) and who rarely missed a game due to injury/suspension is not rated that highly by the club relative to other players. Or that of players four years or more on our list that Jong is just about the lowest rated player on our list by the MC.

On the other hand I consider it 'unsustainable' to suggest the B and F is not an accurate measure of where a player is at in the clubs eyes. And for the record I consider Morris to be our second most valuable player behind Bont. So I actually agree with the clubs rating of him.

Furthermore, our game style and personnel changed from 2015 when Jong achieved a higher B and F finish. And IMO it was his poor hands that stood out more as the club evolved into a quick accurate handball club. And this is why his relative performance decreased in the eyes of the MC IMO.

That Jong turns momentum against us in games is subjective and impossible to argue empirically, as it an opinion. You have yours, I have mine -neither opinion is unsustainable - they are just opinions.