Analysis Lin Jong 2017

[House_of_Dahl]

Broken hand, broken collarbone, broken leg. That damn Jongy is made of glass, huge weakness. Wouldn't have anything to do with them being unfortunate impact injuries or anything

ha yep - he's also at the bottom of packs and taking the big hits over and over again each game, no doubt one of the reasons his teammates love him in the side too.

 

[DelRe]

Distortion - the B and F is the most accurate publicly available measure of how the club relatively rated its players. Players' bonuses can be tied to their placing, so it is viewed seriously. To imply it's not an adequate or reliable measure of player performance as seen by the club is a distortion IMO.

I only said you can't take it as an absolute rating. I agree with using it as support for an argument you just need to balance it against other measures such as the fact he's actually getting a game in key games which is another way of looking at how the MC rates him.

Self contradictory - on the one hand you say that the club rating Jong lowly is like saying 'water is wet', while on the other hand undermining the clubs system for rating him when you state the B and F is subject to fluctuation while implying that it is not a reliable measure of a player, and that relying on the B and F to provide empirical evidence to support a view on a player is unsustainable.

I said the fact that he's not rated as highly as others is obvious - ie clearly the MC would think Bont, Libba, Dahl etc are better. I didn't say that it was obvious he was rated lowly because the fact is he manages to get 16 games in a premiership year and was on track to play in a premiership.

I don't see what is so 'unsustainable' to say that a player rated 27th in the B and F (and lower on a votes per game basis) and who rarely missed a game due to injury/suspension is not rated that highly by the club relative to other players. Or that of players four years or more on our list that Jong is just about the lowest rated player on our list by the MC.

On the B&F you have to remember the voting system means (for example) two blinders and 20 horrors would lead to the same number of votes as 10 games getting 1/5 and ten average performances that gets 0 (as above, 0 isn't nec horrible). So it's not the same as asking the MC to rate the players from top to bottom (I think that's a bit of a pointless exercise anyway because Jong isn't competing with Campbell for a game for example). Given our age profile putting Jong at the bottom of the list of 4yr+ probably gets him fairly close to the top 22 which is what the results show he's doing isn't it? I haven't checked how many would be on a list of 4yr+ though.

On the other hand I consider it 'unsustainable' to suggest the B and F is not an accurate measure of where a player is at in the clubs eyes. And for the record I consider Morris to be our second most valuable player behind Bont. So I actually agree with the clubs rating of him.

Hopefully I've explained above I'm not saying that. Interesting rating on Morris.

Furthermore, our game style and personnel changed from 2015 when Jong achieved a higher B and F finish. And IMO it was his poor hands that stood out more as the club evolved into a quick accurate handball club. And this is why his relative performance decreased in the eyes of the MC IMO.

That Jong turns momentum against us in games is subjective and impossible to argue empirically, as it an opinion. You have yours, I have mine -neither opinion is unsustainable - they are just opinions.

An opinion needs to be sustainable though, I just think you slipped into exaggeration with these comments about changing momentum of games and that he is incredibly poor performance according to the MC. I don't think it's sustainable to say the MC thinks of him that way if he's getting a game in key matches (unless of course you're saying the others not picked even more incredibly poor).

Overall though, take out the exaggeration, we're probably in furious agreement for the most part as I think you're just saying he floats around the fringe of the team which I'd say is right. He's not in the top players but he's doing enough to hold his spot and others aren't forcing him out.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Distortion - the B and F is the most accurate publicly available measure of how the club relatively rated its players. Players' bonuses can be tied to their placing, so it is viewed seriously. To imply it's not an adequate or reliable measure of player performance as seen by the club is a distortion IMO.

Self contradictory - on the one hand you say that the club rating Jong lowly is like saying 'water is wet', while on the other hand undermining the clubs system for rating him when you state the B and F is subject to fluctuation while implying that it is not a reliable measure of a player, and that relying on the B and F to provide empirical evidence to support a view on a player is unsustainable.

I don't see what is so 'unsustainable' to say that a player rated 27th in the B and F (and lower on a votes per game basis) and who rarely missed a game due to injury/suspension is not rated that highly by the club relative to other players. Or that of players four years or more on our list that Jong is just about the lowest rated player on our list by the MC.

On the other hand I consider it 'unsustainable' to suggest the B and F is not an accurate measure of where a player is at in the clubs eyes. And for the record I consider Morris to be our second most valuable player behind Bont. So I actually agree with the clubs rating of him.

Furthermore, our game style and personnel changed from 2015 when Jong achieved a higher B and F finish. And IMO it was his poor hands that stood out more as the club evolved into a quick accurate handball club. And this is why his relative performance decreased in the eyes of the MC IMO.

That Jong turns momentum against us in games is subjective and impossible to argue empirically, as it an opinion. You have yours, I have mine -neither opinion is unsustainable - they are just opinions.

If you're looking at B&F results and average votes per game:
Bailey Williams played better than Mitch Wallis
Joel Hamling was our 8th best player, better than Jackson Macrae and Liam Picken
Jordan Roughead wasn't in our best 22
Roarke Smith played better in his one game than Zaine Cordy averaged across his nine
Heck, I can name a heap of players that were better than Mitch Wallis. For some reason he got less than 4 votes a game, good for 28th in the team. Koby Stevens one of them yet it wasn't Wallis being dropped to make place for Stevens early in the season.
Matthew Boyd wasn't in our top 10 players despite being an All-Australian.

Joel Hamling was our 8th best in votes per game, yet we hardly put up a fight to keep him, trading him for pick upgrades and happy to let him go once another club wanted to pay him something moderately more than a league minimum contract. How our assistant coaches vote isn't the be-all and end-all as shown by our apathy in keeping him.

In any case, one would think the best way to measure how a club would rate its players would be to look at selection - whether or not they're picked for games.

The club decided to drop these players from the team after Round 13 last year when they could have, but didn't choose to drop Jong until he was injured:
Tom Campbell, Josh Dunkley, Mitch Honeychurch, Nathan Hrovat, Bailey Dale (was never an inclusion in that period of time), Jed Adcock, Toby McLean, Will Minson, Roarke Smith, Koby Stevens, Jake Stringer, Lukas Webb and Bailey Williams. Of course, not all of them are midfielders, but the fact he was selected ahead of Dunkley, Stringer, McLean, Honeychurch, Hrovat, Dale, Adcock, Stevens, Webb and Williams, all who could have feasibly taken his spot in the team and didn't throughout that period of time, speaks for itself. Of that list, Dunkley, Smith, Williams, Stevens, McLean, Stringer, and Honeychurch all averaged more B&F points per game but were not chosen for selection ahead of Jong during that period of time.

All this talk about "relative performance" in regards to 2015. In 2015, of that list of 10 players, many were selected ahead of Jong (which is notable given a lot of them were 1st year players) - see McLean Round 12 2015, kept his place after debuting the previous week as sub with Picken and Bontempelli returning and Jong was dropped, Hrovat kept his place that game. Jong was dropped for the Round 22 win against North when Honeychurch and Webb played, Round 15-18 Bailey Dale played whilst Jong was playing ressies, heck Josh Prudden got games in that period of time ahead of Jong, you get the gist of what I'm saying. Jong got picked ahead of Hrovat, Webb, Dale, Honeychurch in 2016 whilst those players were picked ahead of Jong in 2015.

 

[Next Waiting]

Thanks to 3NP, BRWB and DelRe for one of the better discussions I've read on this board. It's nice when a discussion transcends right or wrong and is simply interesting.
A couple of things any one of you might be able to help with. The lists of our 2015 and 2016 B&F results. Through my web searching I have only ever been able to find our top ten. One/some/all of you have at some point mentioned so and so came 27th etc; where can I find this list with both finishing order and points/votes? Link please or post.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Thanks to 3NP, BRWB and DelRe for one of the better discussions I've read on this board. It's nice when a discussion transcends right or wrong and is simply interesting.
A couple of things any one of you might be able to help with. The lists of our 2015 and 2016 B&F results. Through my web searching I have only ever been able to find our top ten. One/some/all of you have at some point mentioned so and so came 27th etc; where can I find this list with both finishing order and points/votes? Link please or post.

http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2015-10-08/final-leaderboard-sutton-medal

 

[dogwatch]

For general interest here's the Sutton Medal count 2016 sorted in order of votes per game played. Last two columns show ranking according to votes/game and ranking in total CSM votes:


Does anyone have the full count for 2015? I can do the same for that year if I can get my hands on the full count.

 

[Randomthoughts]

Well , so there you go.
Regardless of what we really think, Bev rates him so in the team he is .

 

[BRWB]

Well , so there you go.
Regardless of what we really think, Bev rates him so in the team he is .

Good on Jong - wish him luck. And will need it once Dunkley, Dixon, Smith, Wallis etc etc are ready.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Good on Jong - wish him luck. And will need it once Dunkley, Dixon, Smith, Wallis etc etc are ready.

Dunkley and Smith were ready. They are named emergencies and presumably are just as fit as Jong is. Jong was chosen for selection over them.

 

[Wetdog]

Well , so there you go.
Regardless of what we really think, Bev rates him so in the team he is .

I don't think there has been any doubt about whether Jong has been rated by Bev and the match committee. They have often selected him over the past two seasons, and this is just another example of them seeing the value Jong brings to the team. Personally, I think it was the right decision as his form was good in the JLT series. Good luck to him. This is the year he needs to step up to the next level.

Disappointed that Smith is not in the team though.

 

[Wetdog]

Dunkley and Smith were ready. They are named emergencies and presumably are just as fit as Jong is. Jong was chosen for selection over them.

Yes. Jong has been selected over both. Tough call. Glad I'm not on the match committee.

 

[BRWB]

Dunkley and Smith were ready. They are named emergencies and presumably are just as fit as Jong is. Jong was chosen for selection over them.

Nah must be a reason Jong is ahead of those two. Can't be footy ability.

 

[Wetdog]

Nah must be a reason Jong is ahead of those two. Can't be footy ability.

If they are selected as emergencies, that means they are fit to play.

The only reasonable inference that can be drawn is that Jong has been selected ahead of Smith and Dunkley, which means that Bev considers that Jong brings more value to the team at this time against this particular opposition.

 

[BEaston]

Nah must be a reason Jong is ahead of those two. Can't be footy ability.

Haha yeah mate, the match committee are confused or something.

 

[BRWB]

Haha yeah mate, the match committee are confused or something.

Who said the MC is confused?

Maybe Clay is underdone. Maybe Dunks and Smith are prepped for the business end. Maybe Jong is canon fodder to protect them?

 

[bresker]

Jong's been better than Smith or Dunkley in the preseason games, especially the last one. You've got to reward form.

The only reason Jong was out of the side in 2016 was due to injury.

Jong was BOG or close to in the VFL final.

Bev has always rewarded form over established names when picking his team.

That said, I'm disappointed Clay isn't in the side.

 

[Wetdog]

Who said the MC is confused?

Maybe Clay is underdone. Maybe Dunks and Smith are prepped for the business end. Maybe Jong is canon fodder to protect them?

Maybe you’re attempting to delegitimise Jong’s selection by floating unsubstantiated theories?

 

[Wetdog]

Jong's been better than Smith or Dunkley in the preseason games, especially the last one. You've got to reward form.

Jong was BOG or close to in the VFL final.

Bev has always rewarded form over established names when picking his team.

That said, I'm disappointed Clay isn't in the side.

Good points.

If it was between Smith and Jong, I would have gone with Smith. Especially with Dickson out of the side.

 

[maddog37]

Clay and Dunks have hardly had a touch in the preseason haven't they?

 

[BEaston]

Who said the MC is confused?

Maybe Clay is underdone. Maybe Dunks and Smith are prepped for the business end. Maybe Jong is canon fodder to protect them?

Hahaha resting players in Round 1? If you need a conspiracy theory to support your view it probably tells you something. They played JLT and are named emergencies, they're fit.

C'mon mate just accept the MC sees Jong differently to you.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Hahaha resting players in Round 1? If you need a conspiracy theory to support your view it probably tells you something. They played JLT and are named emergencies, they're fit.

C'mon mate just accept the MC sees Jong differently to you.

Or that somehow the nuances of B&F votes, where it seems like more than half the team receives 0 or 1 out of 5 so therefore there isn't much room for nuance, somehow reflects how the club rates him as a player above, you know, actually picking him for the team instead of other players.

 

[Woof]

One of the great trolls by Bevo. A+. Tough on Clay but what a luxury to have Dunks and Smith in the VFL with Rough, Wal, Dickson and Red to get back on the park.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BEaston]

One of the great trolls by Bevo. A+. Tough on Clay but what a luxury to have Dunks and Smith in the VFL with Rough, Wal, Dickson and Red to get back on the park.

This is what it feels like to not have an injury list as long as a roll of dunny paper

 

[Bulldog rick]

Hope jong has a ripper game and kicks a couple of goals. Go dogs.

 

[Sharkey66]

Nah must be a reason Jong is ahead of those two. Can't be footy ability.

personally I think it has more to do with attitude at the moment. In the preseason games Dunks has looked like he is more interested in staring into miss Australia's eyes than playing footy and Clay has looked like he was going at half pace for some reason, just hasn't had that manic intensity we are all used to seeing.
I believe Jong is in that 20 to 26 range on the list and his attitude (or fitness) gets him the nod over those other players in the same range.
Don't forget that footy skills and smarts are only half the equation, the bit between the ears is sometimes arguably the most important.
Just my opinion of course.