Lions v Suns - Who will finish higher in 2012?

[POBT]

An interesting discussion happeninghere on the main board regarding which of the Queensland clubs will finish higher in 2012. The majority seem to think that we will finish higher which I think is right given that the development of the Gold Coast youngsters is such an unknown.

However, it got me thinking about the sides and what the key differences are. We can probably point to the 2008 draft as the genesis of our rebuild (despite our list management in 2009).

Imagine our club was a new one, brought into the league at the end of the 2008 season. Our "experienced" players recruited (still on the list now) would have been:

Brown
Black
Merrett
McGrath
Leuenberger
Adcock
Patfull
Drummond
Stiller
Polkinghorne
Hawksley
Sheldon

That group provides close to half of our best 22, plus depth.

The Gold Coast's "experienced" recruits, even with Ablett, don't match up against that group in terms of numbers, depth, quality and ground coverage. So that is the gap that the Gold Coast have to make up with their subsequent drafting.

Brisbane then had a "super-draft" in 2008 which netted 3 genuine AFL standard midfielders plus more. Someone like Rich had played 2 full seasons before the Gold Coast recruits had their first training session. Once again, a big gap to catch up.

Brisbane has another crack at the draft/trading in 2009, adding the likes of Raines, Staker, Maguire, Bartlett, O'Brien etc, before Gold Coast even get a chance to go looking at talent. Another gap the Gold Coast have to make up even if Brisbane made a couple of significant list management errors that year.

The 2010 draft happens and Gold Coast clearly picks the eyes out of it. But it isn't as though Brisbane stand still, adding highly rated youngsters to the list.

In 2011, the Gold Coast almost opt out of the trade week and draft, insteading putting their eggs into the O'Meara basket who can't play for another year. Meanwhile, Brisbane go in hard at trade/draft time, continuing to add players to a young list.

I think the gap between the clubs is bigger than the 2011 ladder suggests. I also think that the gap will last for another 2 years. Brisbane is an improving side and the Gold Coast clearly will be too. But the Gold Coast are coming from helluva long way back.

IMO, Brisbane is substantially ahead, as it should be. The round 21 result is a fair indication of where the two clubs are at - I reckon we are a 10 goal better club. Even though I expect the Gold Coast to come with a rush, when they get it all together, I don't see them overtaking us until the 2014 season. They may beat us in individual games because they have talent and because of the little brother syndrome, they shouldn't be a better performed club over 22 games.

 

[Haso]

I think that you have articulated exactly what most people in that thread have been trying to say. I've been watching this thread for a couple of days, and it seems as though the only people who don't agree that Brisbane are on top are those who don't seem to have any knowledge of our list or didn't see any of our games, or both. Those who are for GC can't name anybody on our list apart from Brown and Black.

In fact, I was initially convinced that the post was a result of a Bay 13 overflow.

 

[Sunny_]

Anyone who thinks Gold Coast will finish higher is mad. The Suns will be something special, but certainly not in their second year. I think mid 2013 they will more level out with each other.

Excited for the Q-Clash Grand Final in a few years!

 

[Mr Ripper]

I'm fast becoming uncharacteristically bullish about our chances this year. Went through the fixture the other day and pencilled in 13 wins. Can't see GC17 going 14-8 in order to top that!

 

[Haso]

Excited for the Q-Clash Grand Final in a few years!

So am I. That would be amazing.

 

[Mayestro]

In 2012- Lions definitely.

We significantly under-performed last year due to the absence of Brown, Merritt, Drummond and others for much of the year, so if they can stay on the park some of our honorable losses should be converted to wins. All it requires is a little luck with injury.

Add to that some talented 2nd and 3rd year players in Polec, Bartlett, Green, Beams and Lester, as well as the continued development of the 2008 crew. Doherty may also have an impact this year.

The loss of Clark hurts, but with the amount of indifferent games he had last year it's not devastating, and Lisle doesn't have to perform to great heights for us to come out even.

This year GC are pretty much relying on last year's draft for progression, which in itself will be handy, but likely a more linear improvement for now.

So that's the optimistic view. But this year I'm having a really hard time getting any kind of handle on our likely performance. I'm not going to be surprised if we cellar dwell, nor if we make the eight. No idea.

 

[Ironmonger]

It's an odd question really. The Suns aren't at the stage yet where they'd be comparing themselves against established teams like the Lions. The Lions aren't so hopeless they'd be comparing themselves against teams in their second season.

Percentages of 81 versus 56, and an uncompetitive second Q-Clash, show that there's still a big gap between the two teams, in spite of GC's win earlier in the season. A result that owed a lot to injuries, umpiring and frankly some ordinary tactics by Voss.

I really think 2012 will be a tough season for GC. It's not necessarily the case that young teams improve more quickly.

 

[patfullfankezz]

Simple logic dictates:

Premiers>everyone else. Therefore we will finish higher than the Suns

(seriously though. There's no WAY that riff-raff from down the road has anything on us. First win was a fluke.)

 

[supernova_]

Brisbane definitely ahead. But I would think there is probably 3-4 teams that are genuinely at least a 10 goal better team than the Suns.

Brisbane had some narrow heartbreaking losses in 2011, the Suns also had some narrow losses. The floggings though were far worse than the Lions and obviously with a much more experienced squad you would obviously not expect the lapses in the game as the Suns and Dee's had in 2011.

Tell youself what you will, but QClash 1, GC were a better side fluke or not. QClash 2, Brisbane were a better side.

Looking forward to the stoushes this year definitely as I'm looking forward to the rivalry building, as well as the player rivalry which will spawn soon enough. I just hope it doesn't turn into the absolute hatred that Port and Crows have.

 

[blynd_freddie]

I'm fast becoming uncharacteristically bullish about our chances this year. Went through the fixture the other day and pencilled in 13 wins. Can't see GC17 going 14-8 in order to top that!

13 wins? I'd like to see that!

GCS to go 14-8… In 2012 - I’m with you, pure bull-sheep.

All the morph to you, Mr R!

 

[Haso]

Looking forward to the stoushes this year definitely as I'm looking forward to the rivalry building, as well as the player rivalry which will spawn soon enough. I just hope it doesn't turn into the absolute hatred that Port and Crows have.

I don't think they'll ever get that bad at all. The players are all friends with each other, and I think that most Brisbane-based Lions fans (and maybe Melbourne based, I don't really know) have a soft spot for GC. They've become my second team. I'm really enjoying watching them develop.

I can't wait til the stouches become more high profile as our teams develop together. The player rivalries are already quite entertaining. I remember the Lions got stuck into Gaz a bit during QC2, and Leuey's hit in particular looked like it stung.

 

[weevil]

Brown, Merrett and Drummond all back on the park and back at their best would instantly improve us this year.

Continual improvement from the likes of Rich, Redden, Rockliff, Banfield, Leuenbeger, Hanley and Karnezis would also have a real impact.

But I think the key is the young guys looking to take the next step. Guys like Cornelius, Bartlett, Harwood, O'Brien, Retzlaff, Golby, Dyson, McKeever, Beams, Polec, Lester, Green, Bewick, Lisle, Zorko and maybe Docherty and Newell

Tick boxes 1 and 2 and if say 1/3 of those young guys step up then I reckon we are going to be a genuine shot at playing finals.

 

[two team]

just read this discussion on the main board, interesting observations from the southern posters. after reading lionel luther comments you wonder if this person actually watched any of our games . he actually tipped us to finish bottom, below the giants. if it wasn,t so laughable it would be sad to think this person actually thinks he knows anything about our game. we will finish higher than the suns the improvement already is noticeable on so many fronts size,, speed stamina and tactics, . we dont rely on brown and black but having those key players [brown and merrett } back can only makes us stronger . we are at least 2 years ahead of the suns at this stage.

 

[BlackCaviar]

I'm fast becoming uncharacteristically bullish about our chances this year. Went through the fixture the other day and pencilled in 13 wins. Can't see GC17 going 14-8 in order to top that!

wow 13 wins , who are we beating?

 

[Lace Out]

Waiting for a bookie to include this bet as a special/novelty type.If $1.50 pops up it will shorten - believe me .

 

[supernova_]

There is something to think about in that in 2011 you lost Brown, Drummond, Merritt. 3 Key players, probably the Lions 2 most important in defence, and the most important forward.

This year you lose the mecurial Luke Power, and versatile Mitch Clark. Again 2 of the most important forward/midfield players in the side.

Thinking about it like that, your defence should improve dramatically, but perhaps scoring prowess decrease slightly? The younger brigade will need to fill the forward output by the amount of Power + Clark. If that happens, then you can see Lions potentially sneaking into the 8. If it appears the 2 players were a significant loss as Merritt + Drummond was last year, then they may struggle again and improve with only another 2-3 wins compared to 2011.

Im actually expecting Lions to be 1 of the bolters though for 2012.

Only problem with the draw is you have a tough home game draw I think with Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton all probably leaning towards the away team winning.

 

[whatboutbob]

This year you lose the mecurial Luke Power, and versatile Mitch Clark. Again 2 of the most important forward/midfield players in the side.

Thinking about it like that, your defence should improve dramatically, but perhaps scoring prowess decrease slightly? The younger brigade will need to fill the forward output by the amount of Power + Clark

If you're going to look at it like that then you also need to consider any additions on top of 'the younger brigade'. Lisle and Zorko seem likely replacements for Power/Clark. Whether they'll bring the same output to the side can be debated, but I can't picture many arguing Power + Clark > Brown + Lisle + Zorko.

 

[pauldrc]

Enjoyed watching the Suns last year, definitely an exciting team to watch, and one of the most exciting in the league in this regard, but they are probably at least 3-5 years away from their best footy yet.

When the young guys collectively average around 100 games and hit that 23-25 years old level, then watch out....

 

[Hollow Knight]

after reading lionel luther comments you wonder if this person actually watched any of our games . he actually tipped us to finish bottom, below the giants.

It's hard to imagine how someone could be that clearly ill-informed. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and will assume (as he has Carlton under his name) that he still has his knickers in a serious twist after 2009.

He's either painfully stupid or bitter to an insane degree.

 

[Sunny_]

It seems to me that most Gold Coast and Brisbane fans know exactly where the differences are, and are quite settled with it. I have yet to see a Suns fan screaming out that Brisbane will be below the GC next year, or even the year after.

Just interstate supporters have no idea. Weird.

 

[supernova_]

It seems to me that most Gold Coast and Brisbane fans know exactly where the differences are, and are quite settled with it. I have yet to see a Suns fan screaming out that Brisbane will be below the GC next year, or even the year after.

Just interstate supporters have no idea. Weird.

Yeah I think the general QLD consensus is we all want to see the code grow in our state, the rivalry is for that week we play...and thats pretty much it. Not a great deal of animosity throughout the year as other clubs have.

 

[Lets Roar like '44]

Interesting thread topic...not

 

[Lets Roar like '44]

after reading lionel luther comments you wonder if this person actually watched any of our games . he actually tipped us to finish bottom, below the giants. if it wasn,t so laughable it would be sad to think this person actually thinks he knows anything about our game.

Is this the same person that watched us lose to the Suns, and finish 1 lousy game ahead of them after 22 games?

I believe the Lions will improve, but in fairness, we werent far off being the worst team in the league last year, injuries or no injuries. No- one here thought we'd lose to the Suns after all did they?

 

[Hollow Knight]

I imagine there are pretty juicy odds on the Lions finishing below GWS.

I'd respect those who are so certain about these declarations if they posted a scan of their betting slips. Putting their money where their mouth is so to speak.

Edit: just checked the odds. $51 for the spoon.

Get on it Lionel and friends. Money for jam.

 

[POBT]

If the Gold Coast had an established, elite key forward to bookend with Bock, I think they'd be some chance of a big jump up the ladder. We know that young midfielders can develop quite quickly and the midfield is also where the GC have some experience and quality. The Gold Coast showed last year that their clearance work is probably ahead of other parts of its game.

But the missing piece of the puzzle is that high quality key forward. That to me is the biggest handbrake on the Suns' development - they are effectively having to wait until Day, Lynch etc develop which could be anywhere from 12 months to 4 years away. If they had picked up someone like Pavlich, I'd be quite bullish about their prospects in 2012. But whilst they are relying on youngsters and part timers up forward, they will be held back.