Unsolved Madeleine McCann - New Leads Being Reported

[Angry Red Bull]

An objective analysis is one that is free from any direct subjective influences resulting from human experience, interpretation or bias. Things such as innuendo, speculation and wild guesswork, hunches. You can't simply badly want someone to be guilty because they have a certain predilection that disgusts you. Subjectivity doesn't turn to objectivity because you do. Brueckner has no evidence in public domain. Virtually all snippets of information are unconfirmed and uncorroborated. CW is an investigator who would use objective analysis. The problem is he identified CB 2 years ago and nothing has progressed since. Amarale did an objective investigation of the case and all it's suspects and he and PJ excluded CB very early. Let's see the evidence then perhaps we can all do our own objective analyses.

Until then I'm comfortable with being described as unaware

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It is not that hard to understand that just like profiling, cadaver/blood dog findings need to be backed up by scientific tools/analysis. Why? because at the moment we don't know what exact compounds the dogs react too. Just like profiling can point investigators in specific direction for further investigation it is not evidence. Dogs can locate blood/cadaver traces, fresh and or historic, but they do not tell you who or where that scent came from and it is not actual evidence. We can argue the accuracy of the dogs finding traces of blood until the cows come home but in the end it still needs to be backed up by forensic analysis.

Personally I am not disputing their accuracy, they have proven thier abilities in many many different scenarios but I am not going to fool myself into believing they can do anything other than find potential leads in an investigation. So that is a 95% probability at finding something if it is there to be found and that is all they do.

Never disputed that assessment. They cant talk and so all they do is give 95% accurate information that might lead to a location of a cadavar. There is however 9 separate cadavar indications two of which had MM DNA mixed with other DNA. Each of those indications link to McCann and only them. One was MM cuddle toy. It's a remote chance that BOTH the indications aren't of a cadavar AND or it's a cadavar other than MM. Extremely remote. So whilst it cant be used as evidence it still shines a spotlight where the case will be solved.

 

[BonzaRam]

An objective analysis is one that is free from any direct subjective influences resulting from human experience, interpretation or bias. Things such as innuendo, speculation and wild guesswork, hunches. You can't simply badly want someone to be guilty because they have a certain predilection that disgusts you. Subjectivity doesn't turn to objectivity because you do. Brueckner has no evidence in public domain. Virtually all snippets of information are unconfirmed and uncorroborated. CW is an investigator who would use objective analysis. The problem is he identified CB 2 years ago and nothing has progressed since. Amarale did an objective investigation of the case and all it's suspects and he and PJ excluded CB very early. Let's see the evidence then perhaps we can all do our own objective analyses.

Until then I'm comfortable with being described as unaware

I agree with you about Brueckner at the moment simply because we are lacking specific information and a lot I have read about him comes from news articles which in my opinion are unreliable. They are trying to sell stories and manipulate news to do that.
Having said that here we are 15 years on and no charges have been laid against the McCanns either after objective and forensic analysis...

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I agree with you about Brueckner at the moment simply because we are lacking specific information and a lot I have read about him comes from news articles which in my opinion are unreliable. They are trying to sell stories and manipulate news to do that.
Having said that here we are 15 years on and no charges have been laid against the McCanns either after objective and forensic analysis...

The DNA analysis was inconclusive because more than one persons DNA was mixed. Since that time DNA analysis and experts suggest it can now be untangled to give definitive identification. That should be a positive right? Operation Grange however refuses to do that analysis which would prove the case. So that DNA will never form part of a case to solve the crime. When it was so close that is just a travesty

 

[owen87]

In the latest episode of 'ARB spams the thread with nonsense;

An objective analysis is one that is free from any direct subjective influences resulting from human experience, interpretation or bias.

Good of you to clarify that you'll be providing us with a subjective analysis then.

I have done my own analysis

Including

Things such as innuendo, speculation and wild guesswork, hunches.

when I resolve an opinion no one changes but evidence

Liar. When you resolve an opinion no one changes even with evidence.

I certainly don't consider him a 'good suspect' at this point

Thankfully for the McCann's you're not allowed anywhere near an official investigative role.

I'm not even convinced he was there on the night.

God forbid you're not convinced.

There is essentially no evidence

I see.

Not enough for me I'm afraid

Gosh.

I know the alternatives

Of course you do.

happy to be proven wrong

Well that's another lie.

I'm comfortable with being described as unaware

More lies.

 

[syko_killa]

I would appreciate a copy of the full scientific article from which you refer quoting the similarity between pigs and human remains. They are not very similar at all as it turns out. There are only a common 7 compounds common to humans then in pigs. 7 of 30. That means 23 human remains compounds unaccounted for in pigs At the same time there are 9 compounds in pigs not in humans. Don't know the source of the quote but happy to look at the entirety please. Based on my quick searches I think it is erroneous but happy to be proven wrong

It was useful me renewing these searches. Turns out the accuracy is 95% not 94%.

Your going to have to ask Martin Grime, it’s he’s verbal report on the training of the dogs. I supplied a link in my original comment.

 

[Kurve]

I would appreciate a copy of the full scientific article from which you refer quoting the similarity between pigs and human remains. They are not very similar at all as it turns out. There are only a common 7 compounds common to humans then in pigs. 7 of 30. That means 23 human remains compounds unaccounted for in pigs At the same time there are 9 compounds in pigs not in humans. Don't know the source of the quote but happy to look at the entirety please. Based on my quick searches I think it is erroneous but happy to be proven wrong

It was useful me renewing these searches. Turns out the accuracy is 95% not 94%.

Turns out, it's illegal in the UK to possess human remains in any shape or form.

Mick, who also trains police dogs, was given a Home Office Research Award to study the training and use of cadaver dogs in 1996 and has since trained more than 20 dogs across Europe.
As human remains are not allowed to be used in training, pig flesh is used instead. The anatomy of pigs is compatible with humans and pig valves have already been swapped for human heart valves.

The dog that finds underwater bodies

Examining the work of K9 Search and Recovery Scotland, a voluntary organisation that assists in the search for human remains.

www.bbc.com

 

[Kurve]

The DNA analysis was inconclusive because more than one persons DNA was mixed. Since that time DNA analysis and experts suggest it can now be untangled to give definitive identification. That should be a positive right? Operation Grange however refuses to do that analysis which would prove the case. So that DNA will never form part of a case to solve the crime. When it was so close that is just a travesty

How if Madeleine's DNA is found in or on items taken from the boot, will it prove anything other than her DNA may have transferred on to any of the rubbish taken out of the apartment and put in the boot.

 

[Kurve]

While I agree that the press is doing what it does which is trying to sell stories but let's not forget that it's fact Brueckner's actually been convicted and doing time for sex crimes, facing more charges for crimes he committed on the Algarve. These are convictions that come from Germany's investigations.

That isn't spin.

On evidence, we've just seen Chris Dawson convicted of the 1982 murder of his wife, with no body and not a shred of forensic evidence.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

While I agree that the press is doing what it does which is trying to sell stories but let's not forget that it's fact Brueckner's actually been convicted and doing time for sex crimes, facing more charges for crimes he committed on the Algarve. These are convictions that come from Germany's investigations.

That isn't spin.

On evidence, we've just seen Chris Dawson convicted of the 1982 murder of his wife, with no body and not a shred of forensic evidence.

That argument is just plain wrong and you know it. The evidence they used was STATEMENTS. They didn't use media reports of speculation. The only statement we have from CB is he wasn't there and didn't do it. No finger prints. No sightings. Zilch. He didn't live in the unit either.

As regards dog training I understand they try to use garments from a cadavars which has only human cadavar scent

 

[BonzaRam]

The DNA analysis was inconclusive because more than one persons DNA was mixed. Since that time DNA analysis and experts suggest it can now be untangled to give definitive identification. That should be a positive right? Operation Grange however refuses to do that analysis which would prove the case. So that DNA will never form part of a case to solve the crime. When it was so close that is just a travesty

Umm when did Cybergenetics (Perlin) get the all clear on their TrueAllele software? Yes i know it has been in use for around 20 years now but it has always been under a cloud of secrecy because they would not released the source code for their software for peer review. It was only last year (2021) that the US courts (both state and federal) ordered the release of the code for it to be reviewed for bugs and flaws in the coding. Even Perlin estimates it will take about 8 years to review the 170000 lines of coding.

The order to release the source code may still be appealed so until there is scientific peer review of that software why should anyone trust it? Bear in mind it is not the only software out there that claimed to do what it does.

New Jersey State court order

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

Federal Court Order

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

Two other software programs that were found to be flawed.

Forensic Statistical Tool (FST) in 2016 - New York

Thousands of Criminal Cases in New York Relied on Disputed DNA Testing Techniques

New York City’s crime lab has been a pioneer nationally in analyzing especially difficult DNA samples. But the recent disclosure of the source code for its proprietary software is raising new questions about accuracy.

www.propublica.org

STRmix 2015 -Queensland

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-authorities-confirm-miscode-affects-dna-evidence-in-criminal-cases/news-story/833c580d3f1c59039efd1a2ef55af92b

All software has bugs and until fully peer reviewed that makes it unreliable.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Umm when did Cybergenetics (Perlin) get the all clear on their TrueAllele software? Yes i know it has been in use for around 20 years now but it has always been under a cloud of secrecy because they would not released the source code for their software for peer review. It was only last year (2021) that the US courts (both state and federal) ordered the release of the code for it to be reviewed for bugs and flaws in the coding. Even Perlin estimates it will about 8 years to review the 170000 lines of coding.

The order to release the source code may still be appealed so until there is scientific peer review of that software why should anyone trust it? Bear in mind it is not the only software out there that claimed to do what it does.

New Jersey State court order

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

Federal Court Order

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

Two other software programs that were found to be flawed.

Forensic Statistical Tool (FST) in 2016 - New York

Thousands of Criminal Cases in New York Relied on Disputed DNA Testing Techniques

New York City’s crime lab has been a pioneer nationally in analyzing especially difficult DNA samples. But the recent disclosure of the source code for its proprietary software is raising new questions about accuracy.

www.propublica.org

STRmix 2015 -Queensland

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-authorities-confirm-miscode-affects-dna-evidence-in-criminal-cases/news-story/833c580d3f1c59039efd1a2ef55af92b

All software has bugs and until fully peer reviewed that makes it unreliable.

You clearly are well informed relating to it. The article I read simply stated that he and another facility in NZ were the only two with capacity to do it AND he had offered to do the analysis for free for Operation Grange

 

[BonzaRam]

How if Madeleine's DNA is found in or on items taken from the boot, will it prove anything other than her DNA may have transferred on to any of the rubbish taken out of the apartment and put in the boot.

I agree it will not discount the possibility of secondary transfer.

 

[BonzaRam]

You clearly are well informed relating to it. The article I read simply stated that he and another facility in NZ were the only two with capacity to do it AND he had offered to do the analysis for free for Operation Grange

STRmix was developed in NZ.

EDIT: Perlin is not just the Head of Cybergenetics, he owns it. It is in his best interest to promote it.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

How if Madeleine's DNA is found in or on items taken from the boot, will it prove anything other than her DNA may have transferred on to any of the rubbish taken out of the apartment and put in the boot.

Cadavar scent is used to find possible locations of cadavars. They then use blood dogs which IF there is a hit from that location has an intersection of indications.....that there was both a cadavar and blood on same spot. Test material from that spot and if you get DNA is especially incriminating

You want to dismiss this yet are prepared to convict CB on media articles speculating involvement??? .....and that is somehow more objective??? Pass

 

[Kurve]

That argument is just plain wrong and you know it. The evidence they used was STATEMENTS. They didn't use media reports of speculation. The only statement we have from CB is he wasn't there and didn't do it. No finger prints. No sightings. Zilch. He didn't live in the unit either.

As regards dog training I understand they try to use garments from a cadavars which has only human cadavar scent

I wouldn't present an argument if knew it was wrong and your provocations aren't going unnoticed.

There's an e-fit that actually does look a lot like Brueckner sighted hanging around the McCanns apartment, are you also forgetting statements regards his admissions that are in the brief the Germans are building.

As for the 4200 pages in the Portuguese files that you hinge your arguments on, there's absolutely nothing in there to raise charges on against either of the McCanns and there hasn't been for fifteen years.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

STRmix was developed in NZ.

EDIT: Perlin is not just the Head of Cybergenetics, he owns it. It is in his best interest to promote it.

Yes I suspected there may be a marketing motive there somewhere

 

[BonzaRam]

You clearly are well informed relating to it.

It was the CSK trial that sent me into the world of DNA evidence. Mainly the LCN method and the controversies surrounding that as that was what was used in that trial but it did take me to other resources. What can I say? I like Science.... and WAPOL still hasn't destroyed my DNA which they agreed to do when they obtained it. I am giving them leeway seen as the SS side of that case hasn't not been closed yet.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I was one the Taxi Drivers that volunteered their DNA.

 

[Kurve]

Cadavar scent is used to find possible locations of cadavars. They then use blood dogs which IF there is a hit from that location has an intersection of indications.....that there was both a cadavar and blood on same spot. Test material from that spot and if you get DNA is especially incriminating

You want to dismiss this yet are prepared to convict CB on media articles speculating involvement??? .....and that is somehow more objective??? Pass

I've already explained why I'm not prepared to take the dogs signals as proof a dead Madeleine was in the hire car. That doesn't mean I don't trust the dogs but only that there's a host of reasons why they could have been off including among other things, being misled or mishandled.

If you had the ability for objectivity you'd understand that.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I agree it will not discount the possibility of secondary transfer.

The risk is diminished by intersection of all three, smell, blood and DNA. Cross contamination can happen. The sliding door had smell from handling both. So too the car keys to the hire car. Then you have the massive hurdle that 9 separate indications all intersect to one family.....the McCanns

Added to that is physical observation. In the boot there was a mess in one corner compatible with what would occur with a defrosted cadavar.. .wet spot, matted disintegrated hair fibre.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I've already explained why I'm not prepared to take the dogs signals as proof a dead Madeleine was in the hire car. That doesn't mean I don't trust the dogs but only that there's a host of reasons why they could have been off including among other things, being misled or mishandled.

If you had the ability for objectivity you'd understand that.

So I should just listen to you from now on? Respectfully I'll pass on that thanks

I know very well where the line lies between objective evidence and subjective evidence. The only thing that influences me is evidence.

DON'T take the dog evidence K. You have every right to choose YOUR path. Just be mindful I have that right too.

 

[owen87]

The only thing that influences me is evidence.

 

[Kurve]

Cadavar scent is used to find possible locations of cadavars. They then use blood dogs which IF there is a hit from that location has an intersection of indications.....that there was both a cadavar and blood on same spot. Test material from that spot and if you get DNA is especially incriminating

You want to dismiss this yet are prepared to convict CB on media articles speculating involvement??? .....and that is somehow more objective??? Pass

Were you aware that blood from meat and seafood leaked out of a bag into the hire car boot? I'm not sure what kind of meat was in the bag but I'm now wondering if it might have been pork.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Were you aware that blood from meat and seafood leaked out of a bag into the hire car boot? I'm not sure what kind of meat was in the bag but I'm now wondering if it might have been pork.

Why is it so imperative you try and convince me you are right? You won't.

So both Cadavar dog and blood dog misfired? Odds of that are 6% each time. Then MM DNA profile had to also contaminate that spot maybe cuddle toy? Say chance of that is 1 in 5 AT that exact spot

Therefore
17 x 17 x 5 = 1445 to 1

So you are saying a 1 in 1445 chance happened. That is objectivity relating to this evidence and your explanation

The other explanation might be it was a dead body and blood but not MMs. Car had 3000klm on the clock at point of hire. Maybe 3 to 4 hires. Hard to work the odds of one of those 3-4 producing another cadavar but I'd say very high and extremely unlikely

That is ONE site explained you have another 8 to go.

Often a case can be resolved with guilt on one Cadavar, blood dog and DNA intersection especially if location is incriminating. Rarely do you have 9. The odds shorten the more you have because they collectively close the options of explanation alternatives.

Say if you had all three intersect at that pathway. The problem is anyone from the whole resort could account for the dead body. So odds are significantly more favourable to McCanns as they should be. You can actually work it out but I won't.

The locations have ALL link to McCann. Their unit. The bedroom wardrobe, the flower bed, the sliding door, KM clothes, MM T shirt, cuddle toy, the boot, car keys. The odds drive toward their incrimination strengthening each separate location. The unit has a history maybe there was a prior dead body? Isn't but is an example. Odds are higher there then of being safe from incrimination but there is 8 more. How do you then explain their clothes and car? let alone cuddle toy?

My thing is math. If DNA was untangled they go to jail a long time ....accidental death.

I have come up with a comprehensive explanation as to each indication together with what happened at that indication. Try and do that using your explanations.

Perhaps KM carried the pork and had animal smell. That means the cadavar dog was in error. Studies show that happens less than 6% of time or I in 17. She touched cuddle toy .....a second error at 17-1. So the odds two happen together is 17 x 17 and so on and so on

 

[owen87]

Why is it so imperative you try and convince me you are right? You won't.

We know. You've wasted 200 posts showing us you have no interest in anything that doesn't result in 'McCann's did it'.

Kurve - and everyone else - comment so that other posters don't get sucked in to thinking your version of events are accurate and infallible, much as you protest they are.

For someone who keeps saying they only follow the evidence, you repeatedly demonstrate you have a fixed view that cannot be changed, by anything.