Make of this what you will

[PieNSauce]

I've been wondering about a particular element of this.

There's no doubt our midfield performance throughout the year has been very inconsistent. It wasn't helped at the start by having its best player in the backline and overall structure issues, but I find it bizarre that we seriously dominated against two of the best midfield units in the league in GWS and Geelong and broke even if not dominated against the Bulldogs. That's the three best clearance teams in the league right there and the most efficient teams at scoring from a clearance.

I'm struggling to make sense of this, why would our midfield dominate more when playing against the best, especially in the clearance game which is a pretty consistent setup play whichever team we're playing against?

Whatever the reason, that's where my optimism for 2017 comes from. We've built a team around having a strong midfield and we're seeing signs of it come through, although with inconsistency. Keep Pendles, Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom, Grundy healthy, with the support of Crisp, Aish, De Goey, Varcoe and possibly Wells, and I think we could and should be one of the very best midfield in the competition next year.

I'm with you on the optimism side. Give me a full season of what we got post-bye and add back some of our fallen soldiers and I reckon we've got plenty to look forward to. I just don't get the pessimism from some people. Each to their own I guess.

 

[Vankri]

I'm with you on the optimism side. Give me a full season of what we got post-bye and add back some of our fallen soldiers and I reckon we've got plenty to look forward to. I just don't get the pessimism from some people. Each to their own I guess.

Fair enough, I still sit on the fence a bit in the optimism. As per the above, I think we have the tools to have a dominant midfield and less injury and more shared experience should see us improve there, but it's still strange that we've had such an inconsistent midfield/underperforming against lesser midfield units and one could argue it's a setup issue and comes down to coaching. Perhaps the changes in the coaching team will help out, but I don't have full confidence in Bucks and the assistants to capitalise on our midfield strengths as much as we should.

 

[PieNSauce]

Fair enough, I still sit on the fence a bit in the optimism. As per the above, I think we have the tools to have a dominant midfield and less injury and more shared experience should see us improve there, but it's still strange that we've had such an inconsistent midfield/underperforming against lesser midfield units and one could argue it's a setup issue and comes down to coaching. Perhaps the changes in the coaching team will help out, but I don't have full confidence in Bucks and the assistants to capitalise on our midfield strengths as much as we should.

You could be right but what makes me think that could be changing is things like the improvement in Aish late season and his explanation of the reasons. I also liked what I saw from Grundy in the second half. Let's face it, Bucks himself is a work in progress. Some here don't like that fact but it doesn't bother me at all. I see all coaches as a work in progress. Having said that, what I can deduce from the outside is just speculation so it could just as well be false hope but I'm a glass half full kinda guy when it comes to footy.

 

[Dynamics]

What's happening with Tapping? Is he remaining as the VFL coach next year? Coach of the year and all that... Is the VFL where he best serves us? Would he make a good senior assistant? Just thinking out loud.

Have also been thinking about the difference between our best and our worst. It seems illogical that it is an ability problem, as we played too many good games for it to be written off as that odd bad day that good opposition will sometimes have.

As an untrained observer my guess would be that the inconsistency stems from:

1. Structural deficiencies, as mentioned by Dekka this werk and by everyone here for months and months.

2. Youth. Kids are inconsistent. Their form fluctuates. Their fitness over a long season is tested and they may struggle at times to relentlessly implement the coach's plans. Guys like JDG, Maynard, Aish, and injured blokes like Ramsay and Scharenberg... If they develop further they become important players for us and give us depth of quality.

3. Injuries. Moore was set back every time he started building form. Elliott. Fas. Swan. Treloar and others had severely compromised pre seasons. And so on. Ideally Gubby won't have much of a Blackmore's injury squiggle to do each week. Well, we can only hope.

4. Less that 100% buy-in. This is just a gut feeling, but in the first half of the season it seemed like the group were singing slightly off tempo. They managed to tighten things up, Treloar clicked and played like the weapon he is, and Grundy stopped over thinking his job. More of that from more contributors will go a long way.

5. Poor decision making by foot. Our players can kick a footy. We aren't Hawthorn, and yes we need more elite ball users, but we have some good kicks. But those howlers that lead to easy opposition goals are momentum killers. Confidence in the gameplan, confidence in your team mates and a consistent set up I50 would all be a huge help. If the mids look up and KNOW that Jamie or Darcy or Jesse or Fas or Mason or whoever are there on the lead, week in week out, there's less hesitation and more confidence. I saw that in GWS this week. Yes, they are an obscenely gifted group, but absolute confidence in each other was a big factor.

Plenty to build on. I feel like if we can plug those list deficiencies over the next two off seasons, it comes down to coaching. Can Bucks get the group playing as one over a whole season, or does someone else come in, ala Beveridge, to marshall a talented group?

And then we can worry about how we overcome another artificial juggernaut in the Giants.

 

[Premier Pies]

This is exactly what I was trying to say.
Call me a lunatic

Okay, you're a lunatic!

Ask and you shall receive


I do however, tend to agree that there is a fair bit to be optimistic about. I realise we lost to some rubbish teams, or at least teams that didn't make the finals like us, but it's the performances we've seen against the quality teams which fills me with optimism.

Sure, it be blind optimism or we might not even make the finals next year (god I hope not!) but I genuinely believe there is a lot to look forward to. I cannot wait for the next couple of seasons to see what's going to eventuate.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I'm convinced. Collingwood 2017 AFL premiers!

Same.

 

[Gone Critical]

I was more optimistic this time in 2015. I think the 2015 season showed more promise and since then i have downgraded my expectations for where we are.

I prefer 2015 because we contended for a place in the 8 for much of the season. We had similar injury concerns and similar good performances against some of the good sides. Probably our match v the Hawks in 2015 was as good an effort as any in the last 2 seasons. I am more suspicious of a side that rattles home with a few good unexpected performances that a side that fights and contends early on then slips away. Our football early this year was clearly our worst since 2004-5. I dont think we are near the top sides currently and still have a big void when it comes to footskills and A grade talent

Its possible we make finals in 2017 but at this stage I think we look a 10-12 position team for 2017. Too many other sides who are still in their window or with better youth than us. Still a way to go with this rebuild.

 

[domin8tors]

We've beaten the two teams who have reached the Prelim, we ran Hawks to within a point and the Doggies within 3 points.

Make of that what you will.

if you look at it closer, we played these teams when we were closer to our Full list to choose from. when we have a fit list we are in my opinion a Top 4 side.

 

[100volt1]

Gee I was hoping for a juicy trade rumour

I'm disappointed, i was about to edit the Bulls**t watch thread OP.

 

[Pie eyed]

We may well have beaten the eventual premiers.

Then again, in 2010, in two games against Melbourne, we beat them by a point and drew the other game. Didnt set them up for the following years.

Go figure.

Crap coach obviously.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

I was more optimistic this time in 2015.

I know we've been on different sides of the fence before regarding Cloke, but with his imminent departure, are you still optimistic for 2017 compared to 2015 with him gone?

 

[PieLebo87]

I'm disappointed, i was about to edit the Bulls**t watch thread OP.

What the heck is wrong with the lot of you? Watch 'Days of our lives' if you want juicy crap lol

 

[Mateyman]

I was more optimistic this time in 2015. I think the 2015 season showed more promise and since then i have downgraded my expectations for where we are.

I prefer 2015 because we contended for a place in the 8 for much of the season. We had similar injury concerns and similar good performances against some of the good sides. Probably our match v the Hawks in 2015 was as good an effort as any in the last 2 seasons. I am more suspicious of a side that rattles home with a few good unexpected performances that a side that fights and contends early on then slips away. Our football early this year was clearly our worst since 2004-5. I dont think we are near the top sides currently and still have a big void when it comes to footskills and A grade talent

Its possible we make finals in 2017 but at this stage I think we look a 10-12 position team for 2017. Too many other sides who are still in their window or with better youth than us. Still a way to go with this rebuild.

On a consistency basis this is true. But at our best there isn't really any evidence to support the argument that the top sides are far better than us.

 

[Gone Critical]

I know we've been on different sides of the fence before regarding Cloke, but with his imminent departure, are you still optimistic for 2017 compared to 2015 with him gone?

I would like to keep Cloke but he is more of an unknown nowadays. He has more chance of rediscovering his best with the Dogs. We don't have anyone who has shown a consistent form to kick goals at the rate he did even through 2014-5. It probably doesnt matter as much because he wont be around when we are ready to contend again I suspect.

Darcy hopefully can grow into that goalkicker but at the current time he looks a bit of a lone hand KPF and teams will put a lot of work into him in 2017. Having Cloke around in 2017 would make life easier for Darcy. I do have some concern we will be overlaoding Moore if we dont find another mature KPF to lighten his load.

 

[Gone Critical]

On a consistency basis this is true. But at our best there isn't really any evidence to support the argument that the top sides are far better than us.

Later season good efforts against better teams can be suspect. There was talk when we played GWS for instance they were in the middle of a heavy 6 week load getting themselves ready for finals. Richmond have frequently beaten the Hawks through 2013- 2015 and their supporters have seen that as evidence of their advancement which has proven false.

If we were at our best and Geel, GWS, Sydney or the Hawks were at their best I think the difference is still pretty big. Hope I am wrong.

 

[BPikkers]

This thread is way too deep for me. Later.....

 

[Mateyman]

Later season good efforts against better teams can be suspect. There was talk when we played GWS for instance they were in the middle of a heavy 6 week load getting themselves ready for finals. Richmond have frequently beaten the Hawks through 2013- 2015 and their supporters have seen that as evidence of their advancement which has proven false.

If we were at our best and Geel, GWS, Sydney or the Hawks were at their best I think the difference is still pretty big. Hope I am wrong.

Hawthorn need to beat us to make the top 4. If we can nearly beat them in a crucial game like that I see no reason why we couldn't beat them in other important games. Also Geelong beat everyone they played in the lead up to our game against them. Richmond have matched up well against the Hawks for the last few years so them beating Hawthorn is more to do with that than anything else. Also this isn't just 1 or 2 games for the year. Against top teams our record is actually very good. Beat the 2 best teams Geelong and GWS, nearly beat Hawthorn and the Dogs twice, 1-1 with WCE. That's not just a one-off flash in the pan IMO.

 

[Gone Critical]

Hawthorn need to beat us to make the top 4. If we can nearly beat them in a crucial game like that I see no reason why we couldn't beat them in other important games. Also Geelong beat everyone they played in the lead up to our game against them. Richmond have matched up well against the Hawks for the last few years so them beating Hawthorn is more to do with that than anything else. Also this isn't just 1 or 2 games for the year. Against top teams our record is actually very good. Beat the 2 best teams Geelong and GWS, nearly beat Hawthorn and the Dogs twice, 1-1 with WCE. That's not just a one-off flash in the pan IMO.

Our performances against the top teams are the best aspect of the 2016 but that doesn't dismiss the rest of the season. The Hawks had close wins agaisnt the Saints, Dogs, North, Adelaide and lost to WCE and Melbourne also. That's all teams that finished below them on the ladder, not top 4. There was a trend there this year.

I just don't think you can dismiss the rest of the year on the back of those performances. We finished in about our rightful position on the ladder. A couple of our big losses in personnel are permanent , Swan and Cloke, and we need to improve a fair bit yet.

 

[PieNSauce]

I was more optimistic this time in 2015. I think the 2015 season showed more promise and since then i have downgraded my expectations for where we are.

I prefer 2015 because we contended for a place in the 8 for much of the season. We had similar injury concerns and similar good performances against some of the good sides. Probably our match v the Hawks in 2015 was as good an effort as any in the last 2 seasons. I am more suspicious of a side that rattles home with a few good unexpected performances that a side that fights and contends early on then slips away. Our football early this year was clearly our worst since 2004-5. I dont think we are near the top sides currently and still have a big void when it comes to footskills and A grade talent

Its possible we make finals in 2017 but at this stage I think we look a 10-12 position team for 2017. Too many other sides who are still in their window or with better youth than us. Still a way to go with this rebuild.

It's an interesting comparison between 2015 and 2016 and you've made me consider how I felt last year as opposed to this year. I would say that at the beginning of 2015 I was quite optimistic and early season performances tell me that that optimism was not unfounded. Of course as the season wore on it was obvious to me that the continuous turnstile effect of injuries to senior players was likely to have the effect that it ultimately did. Regardless of what people want to say about injuries being just an excuse, I can't see how you can expect young, inexperienced players to perform at the sustained level required with such low concentrations of mature leadership. Among other factors, that was the main cause I saw for our dropping away in 2015.

By comparison, this year I believe that inexperience was still a factor but to a lesser degree. I look at guys like Tay Adams as evidence that some of our youngsters were beginning to mature but I am pretty convinced that the pre-season drugs story had a far bigger effect than many want to accept. Even Bucks mentioned it in the members forum and that only serves to reinforce my opinion. On top of that, we once again had the turnstile effect happening although I think it started earlier in 2016. What I did see that gives me a bit of confidence is that some of our youngsters took huge strides in the second half of the season whilst others were gaining valuable experience. As I've said elsewhere, the turnaround in guys like Grundy and Aish took me totally by surprise. I had expected Grundy to improve but I felt that by late season he was really becoming what we had all hoped he would and sooner than I'd allow myself to wish for. As for Aish, just as I had been starting to think that his recruitment was a massive mistake, he suddenly started producing performances that well surpassed his reputation. Others were less obvious but noticeable IMO.

As for the loss of Cloke, I'm totally unconvinced that the effect will necessarily be negative. For me, Cloke has been such a momentum killer in the last few years that I won't be missing him. I'm sad that it's come to this for sure but when young players do so much hard work only to have it squandered in front of goal, the psychological downer must be huge. More to the point, I believe that younger players in particular get a huge confidence boost from producing play that results in goals. They've been robbed of that for a few years now and I believe it's time for the club to put their faith in youth. It surely can't be any worse. Ultimately I'd have to say that predictions that we would contend or be top 4 were probably premature but I still believe that much of the optimism was well warranted and had we not been so emotionally derailed earlier and not had such a disastrous year with injuries again, I can easily imagine that we would have been likely to play finals.

Once again I hold fairly high hopes for the season ahead but it's not because I believe there will be or needs to be huge changes in personnel. I just flatly refuse to believe that our wretched luck with injuries can continue forever and please god that we don't find ourselves involved in some new saga like 2016. I'm convinced that if you remove some of the instability from the equation and accept that if nothing else, we have pumped good experience into our younger players this year and last, we theoretically should improve significantly. Looking at late season form, I don't even think that huge amounts of improvement are needed to have us playing finals.

Rose coloured glasses? Maybe, maybe not but that's where I sit on 2017. As usual, high hopes and expectations. Let's hope I don't have to adjust them too much next year.

 

[Gone Critical]

.

As for the loss of Cloke, I'm totally unconvinced that the effect will necessarily be negative. For me, Cloke has been such a momentum killer in the last few years that I won't be missing him. I'm sad that it's come to this for sure but when young players do so much hard work only to have it squandered in front of goal, the psychological downer must be huge. More to the point, I believe that younger players in particular get a huge confidence boost from producing play that results in goals. They've been robbed of that for a few years now and I believe it's time for the club to put their faith in youth. It surely can't be any worse. Ultimately I'd have to say that predictions that we would contend or be top 4 were probably premature but I still believe that much of the optimism was well warranted and had we not been so emotionally derailed earlier and not had such a disastrous year with injuries again, I can easily imagine that we would have been likely to play finals.
.

I think you are undervaluing Cloke significantly here. Forget 2016 I would say, club and player look to have given up on each other. But even 2014-15 Cloke provided goal kicking at a level few forwards at Collingwood have matched in the last 20 years. When you say it can't get any worse without Cloke I believe it can. 2 goals a match is a bit of a benchmark for separating good forwards for mine. Not many players can achieve that at AFL level. Even noted goal kickers we have had in recent times like Leon or Dids could never reach that in any season of their career. Cloke could. Very few sides have made the 8 in the last 2 seasons without having one or more goal kickers at that level.

Missing goals is a momentum killer but even more so is looking down forward as a mid and seeing no obvious routes to goal. No one who you can trust to frequently make a contribution. One of my feelings is where will the goals come from in 2017. Darcy Moore you would hope. If he can go for 1.5+ goals/game and play a full season we would be partly on the way. Fasolo and Elliott you hope could do something similar, especially Fas. Elliott will probably has to be eases back in a bit. Still all 3 have injury concerns and none have strung together full seasons recently.

Trouble is there are a lot of ifs about our goal kicking for 2017 and not much certainty. If it turns around great but at the moment it's worry.

 

[PieNSauce]

I think you are undervaluing Cloke significantly here. Forget 2016 I would say, club and player look to have given up on each other. But even 2014-15 Cloke provided goal kicking at a level few forwards at Collingwood have matched in the last 20 years. When you say it can't get any worse without Cloke I believe it can. 2 goals a match is a bit of a benchmark for separating good forwards for mine. Not many players can achieve that at AFL level. Even noted goal kickers we have had in recent times like Leon or Dids could never reach that in any season of their career. Cloke could. Very few sides have made the 8 in the last 2 seasons without having one or more goal kickers at that level.

Missing goals is a momentum killer but even more so is looking down forward as a mid and seeing no obvious routes to goal. No one who you can trust to frequently make a contribution. One of my feelings is where will the goals come from in 2017. Darcy Moore you would hope. If he can go for 1.5+ goals/game and play a full season we would be partly on the way. Fasolo and Elliott you hope could do something similar, especially Fas. Elliott will probably has to be eases back in a bit. Still all 3 have injury concerns and none have strung together full seasons recently.

Trouble is there are a lot of ifs about our goal kicking for 2017 and not much certainty. If it turns around great but at the moment it's worry.

I don't have any problem with your opinion but I look at things a bit differently. For sure Cloke has kicked more goals than any of our other forwards in that time and if you do simple maths, removing him makes us worse but I look a bit beyond the simple maths. Now this may sound simplistic and that's intentional because even I couldn't come up with the right words to adequately explain it but to me, having a guy there who takes 12 marks in a game within scoring range and returning 2 goals means that some other player is not taking those marks and having those shots at goal. Even given that Cloke's marking ability might be better, you could expect that even if an alternative forward took half of those marks and delivered at a far higher percentage then the return is at least as good and possibly better. I also look at the effect on the team and in no player was that effect more evident this year than Jesse White but I even saw improvement in Moore when Cloke wasn't around to be the focus.

Yes there's a fair bit of abstract theory in what I'm saying but I reckon I've seen it plenty of times in the past. I'm not asking anybody to take it on board, it's just by way of explaining the way I think.

 

[PieNSauce]

P.S. That doesn't even take into account the psychological effect that such low return for effort has on others.

 

[doodles98]

On a consistency basis this is true. But at our best there isn't really any evidence to support the argument that the top sides are far better than us.

Here's your evidence:

1. Sydney, won 17 games lost 5, 151%
2. Geelong, won 17 games lost 5, 144%

13. Collingwood, won 9 games lost 13, 95%

 

[ant22]

IMO this season has been the biggest missed opportunity for us in a long time. SImply because I don't actually believe there are any stand out sides in the comp.

I would say this years premier on paper will be one of the worst to win a flag. If GWS win they will look good on paper(historically) but even they will be pinching one before their time due to the evenness and fact that there is no stand out side.

 

[Scodog10]

We've beaten the two teams who have reached the Prelim, we ran Hawks to within a point and the Doggies within 3 points.

Make of that what you will.

What I make of it is that its something for supporters to hang their hat on post what was another disappointing season in which we regressed for a fifth successive year.

Love your work though you're definitely one of the glass half full types that seems to not have an agenda!