Make the 8 and anything can happen

After Rounds 11 (WCE), 12 (Haw) and 13 (Rich) the Crows will sit

  • 6 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • 5 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • 4 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • 3 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .

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This is a serious jinx thread.

We are way off finals & only a bad loss or 2 away from completely wiping out our season.

We have plenty of games to catch up after a shocking start to the season with an inept game plan.

Way too early to be talking finals.
 

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I think the gap was already to big but I think its all over now. We need 13.5 wins if we are lucky? We won't win 10 of our last 14.
 
Redline said:
I think the gap was already to big but I think its all over now. We need 13.5 wins if we are lucky? We won't win 10 of our last 14.
Click to expand...
Can make it with 12.5 but it's moderately unlikely, would need good percentage now that there are four teams with draws and some other things to go our way.

Still think the season is alive if we beat Collingwood next week, but that seems improbable.
 
NSolis said:
Can make it with 12.5 but it's moderately unlikely, would need good percentage now that there are four teams with draws and some other things to go our way.

Still think the season is alive if we beat Collingwood next week, but that seems improbable.
Click to expand...

You could be right.

Even 9 from 14 to me seems out of reach. I think we will get 7 maybe 8 wins from those games.
 
TRP1996 said:
Think there'll probably be a bit of a 10-13 win logjam between the lower reaches of the 8 and ~12th.

Assuming you need 13-10 to make it, and looking at our current draw and being reasonably optimistic.
  • Brissie - Home, they're injury decimated -> Win (4-5) :crossmark:
  • Collingwood - Melb, we pushed them last year, but don't have any faith -> Loss (4-6)
  • WCE -> Win (5-6)
  • Haw - Away, barely beat them last year, but they're pretty average -> Win (6-6)
  • Rich - Home, and they're pretty average -> Win (7-6)
  • Syd - Home, vengeance for last year, but they're pretty good -> Loss (7-7)
  • GWS - Home, but we're pretty s**t against them -> Loss (7-8)
  • Brissie - Away, we pushed them there last year, and possibly their season is done by this point -> (Optimistically) Win (8-8)
  • Saints - Home, should win, but this is the kind of game we choke -> Win (9-8)
  • Ess - Away, Marvel -> Lose (9-9)
  • Haw - Home, they're pretty average -> Win (10-9)
  • Geel - Shithole stadium -> Lose (10-10)
  • Bullies - Home, Crazy Bevo, possibly they've blown another season by this point -> Win (11-10)
  • Port - We have sorta had their measure recently -> Win (12-10)
  • Syd - Away, possibly playing off for a spot in the finals, redemption, depending on how the ladder pans out they may have nothing to play for -> (Optimistically) Win (13-10)
Assuming (and this is possibly a big assumption) we don't stuff up our games in the next month vs Brissie
Click to expand...

Womp womp.

TRP1996 said:
To be a bit more pessimistic, let's categorise things:
  • 4x really should wins vs bottom 4 - WCE, Rich, 2x Haw
  • 4x home game should wins - Bris (at home next week, injury decimated), Saints, Bullies, Showdown
  • 7x games that I would currently categorise as worse than 50-50 - Collingwood (away), Syd x2, GWS (home), Brissie (away), Ess (away), Geel (away)
Click to expand...

Now need to win 4x bottom 4, the 3x remaining should wins, and 3x hard ones.

Will probably be breaking even after the Richmond game (6-1-6). But can see us slipping entirely out of contention in that next tough stretch (GWS, Syd, Bris away, St Kilda, Ess away) - coming out of that 8-1-9 would probably see us out of the running, with the certain loss to Geelong in Geelong, definite uphill challenge of Syd away, and the Showdown (and Bullies if they pull their heads out of their asses).

Am being as optimistic as I can, but reckon a perfectly mediocre 11-1-11 is where we're heading, at best.
 
It's a fairly simple equation now. It's not about how many wins we need as that figure is rubbery but likely to be 13 plus a draw and/or big %

To make finals we have to displace a current encumbent, that means winning three more games than those on 22 and 24 points - Collingwood, Carlton, Melbourne, GWS or Port.

Can we do that carrying the bottom 5-6 players that make up our 22?

We were gifted a banged up Brisbane at home and couldn't get full points. This week we're gifted an even more banged up Collingwood. Beat the Pies and we're still a vague chance, lose and we are definitely done, a seventh straight season without finals.
 

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Dangerousfield said:
It's a fairly simple equation now. It's not about how many wins we need as that figure is rubbery but likely to be 13 plus a draw and/or big %

To make finals we have to displace a current encumbent, that means winning three more games than those on 22 and 24 points - Collingwood, Carlton, Melbourne, GWS or Port.

Can we do that carrying the bottom 5-6 players that make up our 22?

We were gifted a banged up Brisbane at home and couldn't get full points. This week we're gifted an even more banged up Collingwood. Beat the Pies and we're still a vague chance, lose and we are definitely done, a seventh straight season without finals.
Click to expand...
That last sentence is extremely depressing

Yet we have 2 more years of Nicks unless the board wake up to thier mistake
 
Dangerousfield said:
It's a fairly simple equation now. It's not about how many wins we need as that figure is rubbery but likely to be 13 plus a draw and/or big %

To make finals we have to displace a current encumbent, that means winning three more games than those on 22 and 24 points - Collingwood, Carlton, Melbourne, GWS or Port.

Can we do that carrying the bottom 5-6 players that make up our 22?

We were gifted a banged up Brisbane at home and couldn't get full points. This week we're gifted an even more banged up Collingwood. Beat the Pies and we're still a vague chance, lose and we are definitely done, a seventh straight season without finals.
Click to expand...
20 years of a mediocre culture and poor off field decisions have come home to roost.
 
BACCS said:
Looked that way at the midway mark of last year too and then there were 3 changes to it. Way too early to be making that call.
Click to expand...

This time last year Carlton were in freefall and looked hopeless. They didn't win again until R14. They made a prelim and lost by 16.

GWS were 15th at 3-6. They lost a prelim by 1 point.

We all like to rag on Port for being April premiers, but we're also sitting here saying the top 8 won't change in the next 15 rounds. There is a lot of footy still to be played.
 
BACCS said:
Looked that way at the midway mark of last year too and then there were 3 changes to it. Way too early to be making that call.
Click to expand...
Yeah, there's usually some change, mostly because someone finds form or goes to pieces in the second half of the year. For reference the top 8 after round 9 last year was:

Collingwood 8-1
Melbourne 7-2
Brisbane 7-2
Port Adelaide 7-2
St. Kilda 6-3
Bulldogs 6-3
Geelong 5-4
Adelaide 5-4

Only the top 5 made it. Carlton came in from 9th, Sydney from 14th and GWS from 15th. 2022 there were two changes from round 9 (Carlton and St. Kilda out, Collingwood and WB in) and the same number in 2021.

This year I could see Brisbane making a run, maybe someone like Geelong or GWS lose the plot. Essendon look pretty good but you never know there either. Silly to write off a season before the bye usually unless you're right near the bottom.
 
I won't put a fork in our season until after the Sydney game in Rd 14. We need to win 4/5 of the games up until then, which includes a win against either Collingwood or Sydney, as well as the others in between..

This should be seen and promoted as a finals game for us...

Schoenberg should make his way into the side for this game which should give us some speed.

Win against Pies and we have Eagles/Hawks/Richmond. Pedlar should return for some of these games

We then should have Murray back in time for the Sydney game at home.

We then have the bye, which should be right in the range for Thilthorpe to return the week after. (currently 6-8 week return time frame)

Everything is riding on the next 5 games, lose any two of them and we're done.
 
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