Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[raptalia]

Hey Andrew Moore's confidence must have been shot after going from a starting player in a prelim to becoming a dominant SANFL player who only got opportunities at AFL level as a sub. It is also our responsibility to develop these players. Had we persisted with him and gave him the starting opportunities we gave Sam Gray and Ahchee he could of turned out a better player. He seemed to work perfectly in the midfield with Boak, Wines, Ebert

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Andrew had plenty of opportunity and did not make the most of it. Moore had 55 games with us over six seasons and simply did not do enough.

You cannot be serious in comparing Andrew Moore with Sam Gray. Sam Gray began with us as a Rookie and progressed. Moore started as a top ten draft pick. I would say a top ten draft pick starting on the senior list had a better chance of making it than an SANFL player on the rookie list. At the end of his fourth year on our list Moore had played 41 AFL games and in the same period Gray has has played 34 games so Moore actually got more opportunity than Gray.

The fact that Moore managed only fives games in a Richmond side that struggled in 2016 must tell you some thing.

How many chances do we need to give a player?

 

[Janus]

Just watched the final quarter of our 2014 prelim vs Hawthorn. Some things I noticed:

* Lobbe was pretty much the same player he was this year. Our midfield just looked like they were fitter and working harder. Lobbe was tapping it straight down to the opposition and was soft in almost all contests he was involved in
* Chad Wingard will win us a premiership if he gets more opportunities in big finals
* Andrew Moore was very impressive(apart from missing his shot on goal), if he played at that level this year he would of probably been one of our best midfielders this season
* Hartlett was a beast in the big final

We look so much fitter and our game plan just seemed to work better than it has the past two seasons. I think that with a big preseason and also a bit of luck with injuries next year, we could challenge for a top 8 spot.

* Hence why none of the midfield could understand when that spud got a four year extension when we'd signed up Ryder. They were covering his ass all the time and he got the benefit, with Ken saying that he was an important part of the side. Carrying someone on a modest wage because we have no one else is one thing. Carrying someone who has a fat contract that was undeserved is quite another.

* Chad Wingard needs to wear a helmet like Caleb Daniel. Forget the hair and concentrate on the game.

* Andrew Moore justified his place in that side because he was another inside mid. But inside mids don't look flashy, and he wasn't prepared to do anything else. Saying that he would have been one of our best mids is an indictment on them, not a feather in his cap. Deservedly delisted.

* See point one.

 

[Kingfish73]

Our midfield need to lift big time in 2017. Plus use our top draft pick to get a contested possession magnet. Ryder back will help considerably. It's our experienced midfield that need hunger. Ebert, boak, gray and hartlett need to lead from front. If they cannot deliver one of their best seasons as a combined unit we will finish in the 9-14 range.

 

[Andre]

One that we've mentioned before, but I don't think we give enough credit (or rather detriment to) is how poor we've been as a club (going way to to our premiership defense) is keeping players 30+ fit enough to continue to contribute. We mock/rage against Hawks senior players playing for less, but they've had multiple contributing 30 plus players across their 3 flags. North barely had players under 30 contributing the last 5 years.

When was the last time we had multiple 30+ players still first 18? We may get the 4-5 years of players at their peak, but are missing the extra 3-4 years of still good performance other clubs seem to be able to extract. If you were a betting man/woman, you wouldn't be putting money on both of Boak and Gray still solid at 32 the likes of Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne.

 

[Lagooner]

One that we've mentioned before, but I don't think we give enough credit (or rather detriment to) is how poor we've been as a club (going way to to our premiership defense) is keeping players 30+ fit enough to continue to contribute. We mock/rage against Hawks senior players playing for less, but they've had multiple contributing 30 plus players across their 3 flags. North barely had players under 30 contributing the last 5 years.

When was the last time we had multiple 30+ players still first 18? We may get the 4-5 years of players at their peak, but are missing the extra 3-4 years of still good performance other clubs seem to be able to extract. If you were a betting man/woman, you wouldn't be putting money on both of Boak and Gray still solid at 32 the likes of Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne.

Yeah this annoys me so much I started a thread on it. I don't feel like we've gotten to the bottom of it either.

In 20 years we've only had one player get to 300 games, just, and he was the king of bruise-free, chipscab, pass the hot potato play. The next best barely made 250 games.

Outside of the two WA clubs, that's odd.

 

[tribey]

Yeah this annoys me so much I started a thread on it. I don't feel like we've gotten to the bottom of it either.

In 20 years we've only had one player get to 300 games, just, and he was the king of bruise-free, chipscab, pass the hot potato play. The next best barely made 250 games.

Outside of the two WA clubs, that's odd.

Every great or potentially great player we've had ended up suffering a career-ending or career-curtailing injury that shaved 50 or more games off each of them.

- Lade (2 x broken leg),
- Primus (3 x ACL),
- Tredrea (3 x dislocated knee/patella tendon),
- C. Cornes (mangled hand at his absolute peak),
- Wilson (2 x ACL),
- Francou (2 x ACL),
- P. Burgoyne (warped hamstring),
- James (knee made of carob),
- R. Gray (ACL/various soft tissue),

Compare that to the phalanx of star 300-gamers/30-plussers across town who between them may have missed half a game with gout.

Is it bad luck? Poor injury prevention? Poor preparation? Ineffective preseasons? Shoddy treatment? A combination of factors?

Annoying.

 

[Lagooner]

Every great or potentially great player we've had ended up suffering a career-ending or career-curtailing injury that shaved 50 or more games off each of them.

- Lade (2 x broken leg),
- Primus (3 x ACL),
- Tredrea (3 x dislocated knee/patella tendon),
- C. Cornes (mangled hand at his absolute peak),
- Wilson (2 x ACL),
- Francou (2 x ACL),
- P. Burgoyne (warped hamstring),
- James (knee made of carob),
- R. Gray (ACL/various soft tissue),

Compare that to the phalanx of star 300-gamers/30-plussers across town who between them may have missed half a game with gout.

Is it bad luck? Poor injury prevention? Poor preparation? Ineffective preseasons? Shoddy treatment? A combination of factors?

Annoying.

Real annoying.

Who knows what it is? Maybe the grass on Alberton Oval is made up of tiny blades of Kryptonite.

Don't forget Boak's not an injury this year too, you know the phantom menace that had him hobbling around like Palpatine with clubfoot. Wingard's concussion history is also concerning in this regard. I'm sure that's 100 star games wiped out between the two of them.

The only current Port player that I'd wager to have the durability/time to reach 300 games is Wines, but I'd want good odds considering our pathetic strike rate/bad luck.

I'm just waiting for a piano to get dropped on the poor bastard.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Every great or potentially great player we've had ended up suffering a career-ending or career-curtailing injury that shaved 50 or more games off each of them.

- Lade (2 x broken leg),
- Primus (3 x ACL),
- Tredrea (3 x dislocated knee/patella tendon),
- C. Cornes (mangled hand at his absolute peak),
- Wilson (2 x ACL),
- Francou (2 x ACL),
- P. Burgoyne (warped hamstring),
- James (knee made of carob),
- R. Gray (ACL/various soft tissue),

Compare that to the phalanx of star 300-gamers/30-plussers across town who between them may have missed half a game with gout.

Is it bad luck? Poor injury prevention? Poor preparation? Ineffective preseasons? Shoddy treatment? A combination of factors?

Annoying.

We did have Shaun Burgoyne and Kane Cornes.

One we let walk at age 27 who has now played more games for Hawthorn than he did for us and picked up three premiership medals along the way. Still playing and will enter next season at the tender age of 34 and a half.

The other could have played another half dozen seasons but bizarrely left to change careers only to quit for a cushy media job instead less than a year later.

What can you do..

 

[Jonts]

Ebert will crush 300 afl games

 

[Magus]

Westhoff could get there. Whether he deserves to or not is a different story.

 

[Nemisis]

Westhoff could get there. Whether he deserves to or not is a different story.

You get what you deserve.
Westy is so underrated by Port fans.

 

[charcolechaddy]

We did have Shaun Burgoyne and Kane Cornes.

One we let walk at age 27 who has now played more games for Hawthorn than he did for us and picked up three premiership medals along the way. Still playing and will enter next season at the tender age of 34 and a half.

The other could have played another half dozen seasons but bizarrely left to change careers only to quit for a cushy media job instead less than a year later.

What can you do..

Keep the right ones.

 

[Forzaport]

Ebert will crush 300 afl games

Westhoff could get there. Whether he deserves to or not is a different story.

Ebert most likely for sure,

Boak (injury) and Westhoff (age) less likely but possible. Then it's probably Wingard and Wines as they both played full seasons in their first year and have been tracking relatively well since. Broadbent probably also a chance given he's remained injury free and doesn't play a high impact role.

 

[Magus]

Ebert most likely for sure,

Boak (injury) and Westhoff (age) less likely but possible. Then it's probably Wingard and Wines as they both played full seasons in their first year and have been tracking relatively well since. Broadbent probably also a chance given he's remained injury free and doesn't play a high impact role.

Didn't realise Westhoff was as old as he is. His body has held up incredibly well over the last 5 or 6 years. If anyone could be our Dustin Fletcher, in terms of lanky bodied elasticity and resilience, it's him.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Real annoying.

Who knows what it is? Maybe the grass on Alberton Oval is made up of tiny blades of Kryptonite.

Don't forget Boak's not an injury this year too, you know the phantom menace that had him hobbling around like Palpatine with clubfoot. Wingard's concussion history is also concerning in this regard. I'm sure that's 100 star games wiped out between the two of them.

The only current Port player that I'd wager to have the durability/time to reach 300 games is Wines, but I'd want good odds considering our pathetic strike rate/bad luck.

I'm just waiting for a piano to get dropped on the poor bastard.

Yes I believe it's the Alberton surface (my favourite topic as well as sleep rooms) Time for a new training facility. Let's hope the Shanghai surface doesn't add to the woes.

 

[Lagooner]

Ebert will crush 300 afl games

Yeah maybe, I left him out because he won't play 300 for us since 70-odd of his games were played at West Coast.

 

[Portology]

You get what you deserve.
Westy is so underrated by Port fans.

Not so much underrated as misunderstood into "a little confused by".

Fans have always wanted him to be the KPF that he isn't quite, and now it "feels like" we have that need on field that more than ever and it "feels like" he isn't that guy, like he isn't really an answer at KPD or in ruck either, nor quite fast enough for what we think we want on the outside as a midfielder.

Does most things pretty good, has a really good running kick on him, clutch set shot kicking is a small but definite weakness, for his size 1:1 contested marking isn't his thing either but if he's given just a little bit of space those arms come into play. For a tall guy he makes a decent outside midfielder. Most players can't claim that many positives. The question for 2017 is how we use his difference best rather than just be happy to have a durable all round good but not great guy on the list.

The thread is "making the top 4 and building to a flag" remember.

 

[FishingRick04]

You get what you deserve.
Westy is so underrated by Port fans.

Depends what you expect from him?

 

[*PAF]

...
Westy is so underrated by Port fans.

That he is.
But he is also the sort of player Hawthorn would have no issue trading to keep the production line rolling.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Back to my annual end of season look if we can make Top 4 next year on the way pushing to a flag. Last September Janus and I had a discussion how quick we could win a flag. He went for 2018 I went for 2019. I cant find those posts but I referred to it in this post on 16 September last year. My reckoning was 5th to 8th in 2017, top 4 in 2018 and flag in 2019 would be our trajectory, consistent with what I have observed other teams do and I have written about in this thread since 2008.

Macca19 in the lost faith in Hinkley thread, stated whether people admit it or not, we took steps forward this year. I responded with #marginalgains most gains came from not having so many injuries and CAS and tribunal suspensions We kicked 13 extra goals + 35 extra points from an extra 96 inside 50's home and away. that's marginal.

For me the biggest gains made in 2017 has been Ryder playing 22 of 23 games compared to zero and Jonas playing 21 games over 9 and playing like he did in 2014 not the crap of 2016 and stabilizing the defence as basically captain of the defence players. Playing Sam PP has been important but he dropped off in the final third of the year and you had players drop form and out with injuries counterbalanced by new players and others who have improved like Clurey.

As I wrote in a further post in the lost faith in Hinkley thread last night, I use #marginalgains as both a pejorative term and a realistic positive one. Sometimes its because you know that the changes will only be marginal when people are hoping for big changes so I use it pejoratively, and other times because it only takes marginal gains to make a big effect eg, Dixon kicks for/a goal at Geelong after taking 29 seconds not 33, Sam Gray in April kicks the ball from 1 metre out thru the goals and not hit the post and the ball is then kicked out and Adelaide goal, Dixon kicks a goal in extra time not a point or that 55m set shot for goal he had at the southern end in the 2nd quarter travels 20cms further and isnt touched through for a goal. It was a beautiful straight kick that Vardy just touched.

That's how close top end professional sports is. Its a battle of inches or centimetres or millimetres. And you have to consistently get those inches and centimetres and millimetres right. Gold medals are won and lost by a hundredth of a second after 4 years work and in cycling, losing Olympic and World Championship gold by 3 or 4 thousandths of a second is not uncommon.

The concept of Marginal Gains comes from UK Postal Sky Cycling boss David Brailsford - now Sir David. He talked about Aggregation of Marginal Gains being a 1% improvement in everything you do. He figured if you improved every area related to cycling by just 1 percent, then those small gains add up to remarkable improvement. This is as good as any article that explains it - http://jamesclear.com/marginal-gains

So the question is, in 2018, are we going to make marginal gains across the board and in the critical areas, or are we just going to make marginal gains here and there and in aggregation that don't add up to much? I can't see us making massive overall improvement.

We have to get better at goal kicking, we have to get a proper 3rd tall forward and let Marshall develop, we have to stop going to the boundary so often which makes the shots on goal harder and we have to get mentally tougher when the game is on the line.

I would send the blokes to spend a month training with the SAS in WA to develop their leadership and composure under pressure situations, but I know that isnt going to happen. As I have written about in another thread I have started, the magical number is 17 + or - 1 win as that number of wins usually gets you a top 2 spot and best chance to win a flag, especially if you host a QF against a travelling team. This year suggests we could have made the magical number, if we were better skilled, smarter and mentally harder. Until I see us improve our general field kicking and goal kicking I can't say we will definitely find those extra 2 to 4 wins in the home and away season in 2018.

 

[Macca19]

Macca19 in the lost faith in Hinkley thread, stated whether people admit it or not, we took steps forward this year. I responded with #marginalgains most gains came from not having so many injuries and CAS and tribunal suspensions We kicked 13 extra goals + 35 extra points from an extra 96 inside 50's home and away. that's marginal.

We also conceded 35 less goals, giving us our best ever defensive performance in the AFL. I'd say thats a big step forward.

 

[Janus]

We need 5% improvement, not in our style, but in our consistency.

As Nicks said, we are top two for creating turnovers, but only top six for scoring from them. Our defence is good, our ability to create opportunities is good...it's just finishing that needs to improve.

I'm still sticking with 2018. The Magpies showing enough consistency and mental resilience to make the GF this year tells me that our depth is starting to mature and blossom.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We also conceded 35 less goals, giving us our best ever defensive performance in the AFL. I'd say thats a big step forward.

That helps, but most of that is we have learnt to really strangle the cellar dwellers. Against Gold Coast we kept them to 7 goals in 2 games, in 2013 when they were cellar dwellers and we played them twice we let them kick 23 goals. We haven't played them twice in any other year.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

All that work on defense to be unable to beat a side that barely qualified.

 

[tribey]

All that work on defense to be unable to beat a side that barely qualified.

Conceded 81 inside-50's and a zillion scoring shots to a team that was 50 points down to an also-ran the week before.

But we only finished a game and half behind them!

Lol.