Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[Ian Jackson]

Here, we at Port, are largely measured by our destination and scorned along the way. We have to fight for our oxygen.
Most media is unashamedly pro crow, even openly proud (code for bias). Its uphill a lot for us.
We have something and they wanna know what it is. We are climbing by growing and they're not.
They know it !......and we know...... they know it

I agree good post!

 

[SouthSwans]

Step 1: Build a capable and committed back six.
Step 2: Get rid of the unaccountable flogs.
Step 3: Teach the rest how to effectively kick under pressure.
Step 4: Strive to play with the same energy as the 2014 campaign.

From what I've seen this year I reckon that's most of it.

 

[FishingRick04]

Step 1: Build a capable and committed back six.
Step 2: Get rid of the unaccountable flogs.
Step 3: Teach the rest how to effectively kick under pressure.
Step 4: Strive to play with the same energy as the 2014 campaign.

From what I've seen this year I reckon that's most of it.

I actually like our reformed Back 6

Austin, Clury, Hombsch, Jasper, DBJ & Krakouer showed alot for the future. All together too. Yes the ones I left out, Jonas, Broadbent, Hartlett etc I left out for a reason. Refer to point 2. a couple should be stepping up to the midfield.

 

[SouthSwans]

I actually like our reformed Back 6

Austin, Clury, Hombsch, Jasper, DBJ & Krakouer showed alot for the future. All together too. Yes the ones I left out, Jonas, Broadbent, Hartlett etc I left out for a reason. Refer to point 2. a couple should be stepping up to the midfield.

Yeah they did, a young undersized defence trying their hardest, but settling for how they performed this year won't find the required improvement.

For one they need a big beast to help them.

Someone to build into a Grundy/McGovern/Lonergan/Frawley type.

Hombsch is a good player and is gonna be a better one.

Krakouer has done a nice job without being overly damaging offensively or overly desperate defensively.

Austin & Clurey have ability but have plenty of work to do to get to finals standard.

Not sold on Byrne-Jones, looks like a SANFL player to me but might prove me wrong.

Pittard's a funny one, whilst his dash and rebound has been an offensive highlight for Port this year, having closely watched his development since he was drafted he doesn't give me the indication that he would have the physique or defensive application required for finals footy.

 

[FishingRick04]

A few controversial comments there.

DBJ tired by end of season, however he is tough and a contributor.

Jasper I'm sure he's a finals orientated player and tough also.

A Grundy, McGovern or Rance would be lovely, they don't grow on trees, so we'll have to let Austin develop into that.

 

[Jonts]

Lol Rick, Krak was just as bad if not worse than Hartlett at HBF at times

 

[FishingRick04]

Lol Rick, Krak was just as bad if not worse than Hartlett at HBF at times

Yeah he was. BUt Hartlett IMO has a much high ceiling. Krakouer seemed to be a victim of our complete defensive unit.

I'm happy to give him a bit of leeway. BUt happy to chop him for Bonner too

 

[SouthSwans]

A few controversial comments there.

DBJ tired by end of season, however he is tough and a contributor.

Jasper I'm sure he's a finals orientated player and tough also.

A Grundy, McGovern or Rance would be lovely, they don't grow on trees, so we'll have to let Austin develop into that.

No they don't but there's a few around that are potentially available that you could slot into that spot, would help heaps, trust me (despite having Buddy and our deep midfield) we'd be absolutely nowhere in the past two years without Grundy.

Jack Frost? Alex Silvagni? Michael Talia? David Astbury?

Someone like that would help.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Logan Austin has the talent and the frame to be that big bodied defender within a couple of years if we develop him right.

 

[SouthSwans]

Logan Austin has the frame to be that big bodied defender within a couple of years if we develop him right.

Yes agreed but get another one. Look at the best defences today. They all have multiple beasts.

Wood/Morris/Hamling/Roberts, Grundy/Aliir/Rampe, McGovern/Brown/Schofield/Mackenzie, Lonergan/Taylor/Henderson.

Also look at all of the recent premiers and their big backs - Lake/Frawley/Gibson, Richards/Grundy/LRT, Scarlett/Taylor/Lonergan.

 

[Jonts]

Yes agreed but get another one. Look at the best defences today. They all have multiple beasts.

Wood/Morris/Hamling/Roberts, Grundy/Aliir/Rampe, McGovern/Brown/Schofield/Mackenzie, Lonergan/Taylor/Henderson.

Also look at all of the recent premiers and their big backs - Lake/Frawley/Gibson, Richards/Grundy/LRT, Scarlett/Taylor/Lonergan.

if we're not making them tall to be beasts then Cluery is in that category

three talls of Cluery, Austin and Hombsch with Byrne Jones, Jonas and Pittard will the job to push for a top 8 next year

 

[SouthSwans]

if we're not making them tall to be beasts then Cluery is in that category

three talls of Cluery, Austin and Hombsch with Byrne Jones, Jonas and Pittard will the job to push for a top 8 next year

Not trying to be unkind to any of them but if you guys don't think that back six needs some more help I highly doubt you'll make the eight in 2017. Just not developed enough to make finals IMO.

I could be underselling them a bit but from what I've seen they still have a lot of improvement to do to be able to cope with forward structures like the Bulldogs' or the Giants'.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Not trying to be unkind to any of them but if you guys don't think that back six needs some more help I highly doubt you'll make the eight in 2017. Just not developed enough to make finals IMO.

I could be underselling them a bit but from what I've seen they still have a lot of improvement to do to be able to cope with forward structures like the Bulldogs' or the Giants'.

Most of this year we played a SANFL back 6 not an AFL top 4 side type back 6. Carlile played the first 2 games before his wrist injury. Trengove was moved into the ruck in the 6th game and Hombsch tore his hammy early on in the 10th game. Do that to any other sides KPD's and they will struggle when you play 3 kids in your back 6 who didn't have 10 games racked up between them before the start of 2016.

 

[SouthSwans]

Most of this year we played a SANFL back 6 not an AFL top 4 side type back 6. Carlile played the first 2 games before his wrist injury. Trengove was moved into the ruck in the 6th game and Hombsch tore his hammy early on in the 10th game. Do that to any other sides KPD's and they will struggle when you play 3 kids in your back 6 who didn't have 10 games racked up between them before the start of 2016.

I get that. I'm not saying they weren't impacted by a lack of on-field personnel in 2016.

I'm just trying to share my knowledge of what we did to get there and comparing your current players in the best 22 to the standards that we at the Swans expect to get to each year to be competitive in finals.

Again, and bluntly, the back six needs to get better (a recruit would help plenty as mentioned above).

 

[longdonkey]

For us to be Top 4 we can't play the young back 6 we had toward the end of the year. It wont hold up.

I think we are going to need Trengove to take the big boys for another year or 2 until Austin is physically able to.

B Hartlett/ Byrne Jones Trengove Austin/Jonas
HB Broadbent Hombsch Pittard

Play Hartlett for mediums with high capacity to cause damage or anyone you think that he could run off of, Byrne-Jones for smalls
Austin for talls or 2nd target forward Jonas for mediums or a negating job on a forward going up the ground.

Half Back line for offence and kicking and I'd want to see Hartlett rotating through. I want to see these guys kicking us inside 50, not Ollie.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I get that. I'm not saying they're talentless no-hopers that don't try and I'm not saying they weren't impacted by lack of personnel in 2016.

I'm just trying to share my knowledge of what we did to get there and comparing your current players in the best 22 to the standards that we at the Swans expect to get to each year to be competitive in finals.

Again, and bluntly, the back six needs to be better than it is.

I think everyone gets that, but the midfield not getting enough clean ball, being smashed by bigger bodies and our forwards having the 4th for average most inside 50's but not great at converting, either because the kicks in were too many useless bombs and/or the forwards not being defensive enough put enormous pressure on the young defence as the opposition ran the ball out too easily. We need a proper back up ruckman, another hard edge inside mid, another experienced KPF and another experienced KPD if Trengove isn't going to play CHB in 2017 and plays the 2nd ruck role. We wont get all of them in one draft/trade period. Outside the best 4 defences, our defence averaged only about 8-12 pts more points against than the other finals defences. See the premiership ladder at

http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

 

[raptalia]

If we are talking about top 4 and a Premiership we need to make a few changes behind the scenes.

We have made a few god awful decisions over the last few years and these have affected the voracity of our list and our performance on the field. I acknowledge that the talent we have is what we have to work with but I suspect our list needs an injection of talent in the right places. We are not going to make the top four unless we get our midfield mix right, unless we find another 'go to' forward to replace Jay Schultz. To achieve this we need to make some astute decisions as regards drafting, trading, player management etc. We also need to instill a winning culture back into our players. Maybe this starts with the Coaching Panel and an effective game plan, maybe it is a question of effective list management and player development or maybe it is a combination of these and more.

Surely names like Hinkley, Davies, Voss, Hart, Cripps, Burgess need as much scrutiny as the names on our playing list ?

I think we have some talent in our list but getting the players we have into the right positions is only a start, it is not the whole picture. Perhaps it is time for KT and Kochie to re visit Foster's famous creed?

 

[SouthSwans]

I think everyone gets that, but the midfield not getting enough clean ball, being smashed by bigger bodies and our forwards having the 4th for average most inside 50's but not great at converting, either because the kicks in were too many useless bombs and/or the forwards not being defensive enough put enormous pressure on the young defence as the opposition ran the ball out too easily. We need a proper back up ruckman, another hard edge inside mid, another experienced KPF and another experienced KPD if Trengove isn't going to play CHB in 2017 and plays the 2nd ruck role. We wont get all of them in one draft/trade period. Outside the best 4 defences, our defence averaged only about 8-12 pts more points against than the other finals defences.

Yep fair comment, they were admirable and most of them probably performed ahead of their pre-season expectations, but it's still the end of the ground with the least ability.

I have a feeling Ryder's return will get the midfield group excited again. Plenty of talent in there that just needs to fire up a bit.

A fit Dixon and fresh Monfries will be massive up front.

 

[JUSTWORK]

really we aren't as far away as many people suggest.

#1 for 1%ers
#3 for tackles
#5 for inside 50s
#8 for Centre Clearences
# 3 for clearances
# 3 for rebound 50s

Ryder back will be massive for clearances, which then boosts our rebound, and inside 50's.

What we need is a decent game plan and forward structure.

Players need to be accountable, if your not doing everything hinkley needs to drop them no persisting with underperforing players for weeks. if you off, you play in the 2s until you deserve to be back in the AFL.

Most importably we need guys that use the ball well. We are the worst side in the comp for cleaners and dips%

 

[FishingRick04]

I'd rather aim for top 8 and get games into those lads. Clury is now 23? We need to develop. Top 8 and see what happens front there.

 

[FishingRick04]

Justwork forward structure yes.

23 really struggled with the teams that flooded right back deep. We just didn't have a plan for it!

The bomb it long was silly and we needed to drop the eyes but didn't have representation to do it!

 

[philreich]

The more I look at the Bulldogs the more I think it was just a case of a side making the most of the chance presented to it by the AFL and that ridiculously easy early draw. And goes to show teamwork trumps talent any day of the week.

I'll be extremely surprised if they come anywhere near close to winning a flag again with that list.

Being the darlings of the umpires also helps. What was their net differential for the season: +99? When you're getting an armchair ride like that from the maggots, failure is a difficult proposition.

 

[SouthSwans]

Justwork forward structure yes.

23 really struggled with the teams that flooded right back deep. We just didn't have a plan for it!

The bomb it long was silly and we needed to drop the eyes but didn't have representation to do it!

To be fair though Monfries has been vitally important in your forward structure prior to 2016, his return is sure to greatly assist with those issues.

This year the setup was unfit Dixon, finished Schulz and old mates Johnny Butcher and Doogie Howser rotating through with a flat year from Wingard and relatively inexperienced other smalls.

In 2017 if you are fully fit and ready come round one - fit Charlie Dixon & the incoming Angus Monfries with Chad Wingard back at his best and a fired up Justin Westhoff, the up-and-comers Brandon Ah Chee, Jake Neade & Karl Amon all with another year of footy under their belts, along with Aaron Young seemingly on the brink of stardom and the superstar Robbie Gray both floating through, I reckon it looks pretty alright. As long as they are all putting on as much defensive pressure as possible at all times, that looks to be building into a very dangerous forward group.

Midfield has all of the right ingredients too. Wines, Ebert, Boak, Gray, Gray, Broadbent, Polec, Hartlett looks great on paper (if they can get it right they could be one of the best in the comp next year) but as an AFL midfield it is those blokes' collective responsibility to be performing the best they can at all times and lead the way for the team in the middle on gameday because that's where games are won.

As I mentioned earlier I think Ryder will give them the spark they need to all get up again, but if you are to be a finals team from now on their attitude for the whole season has to be keep going at full pace and instinctiveness even when things aren't going their way, and in the pre-season Kenny should hammer 'applying elite forward pressure' and 'how to kick effectively under elite pressure' into them.

This is going to sound a bit spirits and energies and stuff but I think the main thing is everyone involved with the club needs to be as up-and-about and passionate as you guys were in 2014 and even more if possible - even if the team doesn't perform at it's best at the start of the year, that's what I've learnt from Swans 2012 and Dogs 2016 - and upon reflection the Hawks 3peat - if a club can generate heaps of momentum and passion towards the campaign I truly believe the players feel it and naturally become more passionate, desiring and obligated to focus more on doing everything they can to strive for the premiership cup.

As I said spirits and energies stuff but that's what it's all about.

 

[Portia]

Alex Silvagni doesn't add anything to our defence that we can't already cover

 

[SouthSwans]

Alex Silvagni doesn't add anything to our defence that we can't already cover

It's silly to think another good player woudn't help, I think he'd be in the first team but even if he isn't he's great depth for anyone who gets injured or isn't in form.

Key position depth in defence is a huuuuge asset to any team.

Look at the Swans in the GF, lost Aliir and really struggled to cover him and got exposed for key position depth in defence, compared to the Dogs who had Hamling, Morris, Roberts and Wood all playing, it helps a bit.