Malthouse's Ladder

[smiddaz123]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

I assume a centre clearance = a clearance after a centre bounce? Bit hard to measure in raw numbers since some sides will score/concede more goals than others, reuslting in more centre bounces.

Unless I've got the wrong idea of that stat, it's probably better measured as a percentage of centre clearances won?

 

[Rohan25]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

Also St Kilda's contested possies are hidious, but as I said, it will definately even out a bit.

I don't want to spoil all your hard work mate as I can see you've put heaps of time into it, but St.Kilda's contested possession count has to be wrong. You've put that they average 80 over the last 3 rounds, and on the other one you put 129 total over the last 2 games. Are you sure you've counted all their matches? I'd be amazed if their average is lower than 100 in that stat.

Great work though.

 

[Gambit78]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

Awesome job. Interesting to read, which is why I brought up the thread in the first place. Glad you've done all the work. Got to love the time difference when over the other side of the planet, gets someone else to do the leg work for you.

I came up with a little formula when reading through the stats between rounds 13-16. I concentrated on Tackles, Contested Possessions, Disposal Efficiency, Clearances, I50's, R50's and 1%. I weighted them according to what I thought were most important to less important (although still important). Basically worked it out like this:

T - 5pts
CP - 5
DE - 5
Cl - 4
I50 - 3
R50 - 3
1% - 3

Then I went through every game between rounds 13 - 16 and compared the sides on those stats. I allocated points for the relevant stats to the team that won it in the game. For instance, Round 13 - Hawthorn V Essendon

T - 72/74 (Essendon - 5pts)
CP - 131/134 (Essendon - 5pts)
DE(%) - 75/63 (Hawthorn - 5pts)
Cl - 29/37 (Essendon - 4pts)
I50 - 59/47 (Hawthorn - 3 pts)
R50 - 30/41 (Essendon - 3 pts)
1% - 56/45 (Hawthorn - 3pts)

So out of that game, the Hawks tallied up 11pts to Essendon's 17. Interestingly enough, the Hawks won that game. But if Malthouse uses something like this, then the result is almost irrelevant, because this system does a great job of highlighting team's strengths and weakness without considering the scoreboard. (The real standout, if you folks are at all inclined to apply a points system like this, is the Carlton V Fremantle game. Freo won it, but check out the stats/points outcome. Took me by surprise)

So over the last four rounds I went tallied up the points for each game (work is a bit slow at the moment). The ladder came out with a couple of surprises.

Team/Tackles/Cont.Poss/Disp.Eff./Clear./I50/R50/1%/TOTAL

Magpies/20/20/10/--/9/9/9/78

Bulldogs/15/10/15/12/12/3/9/76

Tigers/5/15/15/16/12/--/6/69

Hawks/15/10/15/4/6/--/9/59

Cats/10/5/15/8/6/9/3/59

Crows/--/20/10/12/12/--/3/57

Blues/5/10/15/8/9/--/9/56

Demons/15/10/--/8/--/12/6/51

Saints/10/10/15/4/9/3/--/51

Eagles/5/10/10/8/3/6/9/51

Bombers/15/5/5/12/3/6/3/49

Kangaroos/5/10/5/8/3/6/12/49

Swans/5/10/10/12/3/3/3/48

Power/10/5/10/12/3/3/3/46

Dockers/5/10/10/4/6/9/--/44

Lions/15/--/--/4/--/12/9/40

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity in this - I haven't based the weighting of the KPI stats on anything other than what I think they are worth, and no doubt other stats could be thrown in to the mix. But take that as it may, for me a couple of things have been highlighted:

a)the saints and dockers haven't had a great month.
b)this week's game against the tigers is more of a danger game than one might think
c)the cats aren't as off the boil as it would appear
d)and as shown up in nath's work, we suck at clearances

So as a compliment to nath's stats gathering, I went and did a head to head for every game of the last 4 rounds - and together, it makes for interesting reading.

Enjoy, pick it apart, add to it, dismiss it, do what you like - and nath, thanks for the leg up.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

I assume a centre clearance = a clearance after a centre bounce? Bit hard to measure in raw numbers since some sides will score/concede more goals than others, reuslting in more centre bounces.

Unless I've got the wrong idea of that stat, it's probably better measured as a percentage of centre clearances won?

You could overcome that roughly by calculating 6*clearences/(points for+points against)as a rough guide? Would be close to the figure of clearances per goal?

 

[rose jam]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

d)and as shown up in nath's work, we suck at clearances

my observation from watching the game is that our clearances tend to be clean whereas our oppositions are a forced scrubby kicks. This stat needs to broken into those 2 categories;

1) time to dispose
2) rushed disposal

these days with the zone set-up clearances are playing less effect because a rushed kick forward gives it back and you get caught on the switch of play. Saints base their whole game on this

 

[Gambit78]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

my observation from watching the game is that our clearances tend to be clean whereas our oppositions are a forced scrubby kicks. This stat needs to broken into those 2 categories;

1) time to dispose
2) rushed disposal

these days with the zone set-up clearances are playing less effect because a rushed kick forward gives it back and you get caught on the switch of play. Saints base their whole game on this

I would agree in part, for that has been my observation as well. As people have said a few times over the course of the year, we spread from the stoppages extremely well, which lends itself to clean clearances.

I think the other factor to this particular stat would be our lack of a genuine 2nd ruckman since the split round. I wonder if our clearances drop off, or become as you say, 'scrubby', when Jolly is rested and Leigh Brown takes over?

 

[Rioli magic]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

Nice ladder Nathe. I think there's an error in the tackle category.

 

[Quicky]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

Great thread Gambit and Nathe.

I think the most telling thing from those stats is the difference in contested possessions compared to Richmond over that time period.

Their first and we're last. Tuck has really improved them in this area. Cotchins ommission doesn't help nor will Martins altered role but its very interesting non-the-less.

 

[mattys123]

Mick loves "his ladder".

He mentions it 3 times in the last 3 paragraphs of his weekly email.

Carlton and Collingwood games are always top level, we understand where Carlton is on the ladder.
Our ladder has us very close to the top which means we can still press the point. Going by the characteristics of what we believe is good for us, we are not quite as high as we could after 17 weeks.
The challenge is to make sure we button down when we need to and release in other areas. Until we are satisfied that our ladder represents where we want to be, we cannot possibly relax.

 

[Gambit78]

It would be great if he released the ladder he uses at the end of a season, just to see what it is he measures.

In the meantime, it gives me something to do in my bored time at work.

Wondering if the mods want to put this thread in with "Nathe's Rolling 3 Round Malthouse Ladder"?

 

[Gambit78]

Re: Nathe's rolling 3 round malthouse ladder!! ! !!!! !!

T - 5pts
CP - 5
DE - 5
Cl - 4
I50 - 3
R50 - 3
1% - 3


Team/Tackles/Cont.Poss/Disp.Eff./Clear./I50/R50/1%/TOTAL

Magpies/15/20/15/4/9/9/9/82

Bulldogs/15/15/15/12/12/3/9/81

Cats/10/10/20/4/9/12/3/71

Tigers/10/10/10/12/9/3/6/60

Hawks/15/15/10/4/6/--/6/56

Demons/15/15/--/8/3/9/6/56

Power/10/10/10/12/3/6/3/54

Blues/5/10/15/8/9/--/6/53

Saints/10/5/10/8/6/3/3/50

Eagles/5/5/10/8/3/6/12/49

Bombers/10/5/10/12/6/3/3/49

Kangaroos/10/5/5/8/--/9/12/49

Swans/5/10/10/12/3/3/3/48

Crows/--/15/5/8/12/--/6/46

Dockers/5/10/10/4/6/9/--/44

Lions/15/--/--/8/--/9/6/38

So, I've updated the ladder. Keeping within a 4 round window, I removed round 13 stats from the teams and added the round 17 stats. Big movers were Port and Adelaide - Port jumping up to 7th from 14th, Adelaide dropping a heap to 3rd last. Usual suspects amidst the top 5 with the tigers and demons punching above their weight. The Lions are rubbish.

I'll try and keep this going until the end of the season. Enjoy.

 

[loki04]

Hi guys, here's a thing I just did.

I was getting bored so I gave up, I was going to do the last 3 rounds, but only did 2, still interesting numbers there though.

Hawthorn for example really stood out to me, even though it's 8 quarters they have huge numbers across the board, and they had decent opposition in Geelong recently.


Anyways here you go, I may update it if I can be f*cked.

http://www.youshare.com/toolpeth/21a4ccd92a8684d9.jpg.html

lol at our clanger count over those 2 rounds.