Covid-19 Mandatory vaccines

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Crankyhawk

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Oh side effects.

Headache, temporary heart issues (that might coincidently highlight some other unknown health issue).

What are we arguing here. Your career, paycheck over a temporary possibility. Is that your argument

meaningless troponin bumps, not even real heart issues. And many more worried well who come to ED with "chest pain"
 

sr36

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The risk at the delta stage in the UK was 6 in 1000 chance of being hospitalised. That included all those who incidentally had covid which was estimated as many as half of those.. then consider that not everyone in the community who had covid (asymptomatic/not testing) was reporting, so they number is worst case scenario.
If omicron is 1/3 as dangerous (as Saints suggests) that leaves the entire populations blended risks of hospitalisation is less than 1 in 1,000.

So, it really isn't a risk at all if you're taking on the virus as a young, healthy, fit 40 something or younger.
Delta in the UK occured in a population with high levels of naturally acquired immunity and high levels of vaccination.

Looking at whole population hospitalisation rates from Delta in the UK tells you nothing about the risk of hospitalisation for those who hadn't had their immune response primed by either the vaccine or a previous case of covid.

I've got no idea what data looks like for that group, just suggesting that your method of looking at it is flawed.
 

pc79

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Delta in the UK occured in a population with high levels of naturally acquired immunity and high levels of vaccination.

Looking at whole population hospitalisation rates from Delta in the UK tells you nothing about the risk of hospitalisation for those who hadn't had their immune response primed by either the vaccine or a previous case of covid.

I've got no idea what data looks like for that group, just suggesting that your method of looking at it is flawed.
Refer to the site that SaintsSeptember posted previously. This is the CDCs analysis of the data for California/New York, a large dataset, may-nov 21. Clearly shows the unvaccinated with no previous infection are the most likely to require hospital treatment. That's inarguable and has been for a long time.

However...is a one size fits all strategy to vaccinate everyone the right one?

Is the vaccine effective in stopping infection/transmission?

Is everyone similarly at risk of hospitalisation?

Should vaccine mandates be enforced based on the CDC evidence where the previously recovered unvaccinated are demonstrated to be less likely to require hospitalisations than uninfected vaccinated? More evidence will continue to come out supporting this information.
 

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sr36

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Refer to the site that SaintsSeptember posted previously. This is the CDCs analysis of the data for California/New York, a large dataset, may-nov 21. Clearly shows the unvaccinated with no previous infection are the most likely to require hospital treatment. That's inarguable and has been for a long time.

However...is a one size fits all strategy to vaccinate everyone the right one?

Is the vaccine effective in stopping infection/transmission?

Is everyone similarly at risk of hospitalisation?

Should vaccine mandates be enforced based on the CDC evidence where the previously recovered unvaccinated are demonstrated to be less likely to require hospitalisations than uninfected vaccinated? More evidence will continue to come out supporting this information.

Currently with the Omicron strain breaking through vaccines, the benefit of the vaccine is really all about the initial exposure to covid - better off having it through a vaccine than the virus so your immune system kicks in more effectively.

In terms of mandates, I've got no interest in forcing people to make the safer smarter decision of vax for their own sake. For me, mandates should depend on hospital overload. If people not being vaxed is going to cause too much stress on hospitals which results in deaths to others from either the virus or lesser access for other conditions, longer response time for paramedics, etc, as well as people having to live longer with chronic repairable conditions due to loss of elective surgery, then I don't have any qualms with the mandates. But I haven't been following the hospital impact side of the pandemic closely enough to have much idea about excess death and increased suffering resulting from increased hospitalisation amongst the unvaxed cohort.

I do think it'd be nice if covid recoverees were exempted from any mandates as they're currently the safest in terms of both spread and hospitalisation (unless they acquired organ damage or a chronic condition within their recovery) but probably now unworkable with self tests.
 
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pc79

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What alternative approach?

Lock away vulnerable groups from the rest of the population?
Ultimately, we'll all be infected at some stage, if not already. It's inevitable. The trend has been that each variant has been more mild than the previous. The current variant is nothing more than a bad cold for most. The previous delta variant was around 6x more deadly than the flu. Let's hope the trend continues.

Never ending boosters in my opinion is not the answer, so yes, alternative medications possibly? Repurposed medications, or a combination of many.

We shout down the idea of repurposing safe drugs in support of a medical emergency drug where huge profits are being made, and proper clinical trials were not completed.

Re the earlier comment re: ivermectin studies continue in its effectiveness against COVID as an antiviral (pre treatment). What is true about ivermectin is the inventors won Nobel prizes for medicine after its invention. It is a safe, anti parasitic drug approved by the FDA. It has been administered to over 2bn people globally.
 

pc79

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Currently with the Omicron strain breaking through vaccines, the benefit of the vaccine is really all about the initial exposure to covid - better off having it through a vaccine than the virus so your immune system kicks in more effectively.

In terms of mandates, I've got no interest in forcing people to make the safer smarter decision of vax for their own sake. For me, mandates should depend on hospital overload. If people not being vaxed is going to cause too much stress on hospitals which results in deaths to others from either the virus or lesser access for other conditions, longer response time for paramedics, etc, as well as people having to live longer with chronic repairable conditions due to loss of elective surgery, then I don't have any qualms with the mandates. But I haven't been following the hospital impact side of the pandemic closely enough to have much idea about excess death and increased suffering resulting from increased hospitalisation amongst the unvaxed cohort.

I do think it'd be nice if covid recoverees were exempted from any mandates as they're currently the safest in terms of both spread and hospitalisation (unless they acquired organ damage or a chronic condition within their recovery) but probably now unworkable with self tests.
All fair and valid points. At the height in NSW 234 ICU beds were taken up (out of 760, but could stretch to around 1,000) with covid patients. Whether the primary reason for ICU admission was Covid itself, or other reasons with a positive covid test being incidental we don't know. I'd be more inclined to look at those ventilated being the more likely number in ICU with covid being the primary contributor (as covid is a pneumonic virus primarily affecting the lungs and airways). At its worst, Sept 21, 123 were ventilated
 

sr36

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All fair and valid points. At the height in NSW 234 ICU beds were taken up (out of 760, but could stretch to around 1,000) with covid patients. Whether the primary reason for ICU admission was Covid itself, or other reasons with a positive covid test being incidental we don't know. I'd be more inclined to look at those ventilated being the more likely number in ICU with covid being the primary contributor (as covid is a pneumonic virus primarily affecting the lungs and airways). At its worst, Sept 21, 123 were ventilated
We're not necessarily going to see the impact from those individual numbers. If a hospital system is overloaded they're going to have to be less cautious with patients and raise the bars for admission and lower the bars for release, with the potential to bring about a series of flow on negative medical effects, not just covid related. Cities that have been really smashed by a covid wave that has maxed out the medical system have seen excess death not just from a covid spike, but also other deaths rising during that wave. No idea where Australian cities are at in terms of that, but a high vax rate is going to help. The full medical impact is really hard to measure, which is why epidemiology is a thing.
 

sr36

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Ultimately, we'll all be infected at some stage, if not already. It's inevitable. The trend has been that each variant has been more mild than the previous. The current variant is nothing more than a bad cold for most. The previous delta variant was around 6x more deadly than the flu. Let's hope the trend continues.
Each variant hasn't been more mild. Delta is considered to be more dangerous than the variants that preceded it.

With influenza, a more evolved disease in its human guise, each year we see new strains, sometimes they're less dangerous than their predecessors, sometimes more dangerous.

But we'll see immunity contininue to rise to help make most strains have less of an impact.

The theory that does point to it continuing to be less severe is that Omicron has evolved and become dominant because its much much more transmissible - bonding more strongly with cells in our airways, but the mutations that bring this about make it bond less effectively in cells in our lungs, giving less instances of pneumonia. There should be a tendency for mutations to become better at bonding with our airway cells as this increases spread and becoming ideal at this may continue to make them less suited to giving us pneumonia, thus milder strains.

The spanner in the works is that as immunity grows, it'll be mutations that can avoid immunity that will become dominant, not necessarily the best at attaching to airway cdlls- that could by a very different spike protein that has an increased capacity to bond in lung cells and thus cause pneumonia.
 
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Pessimistic

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So, your vaccinated status will expire 6 months after your last jab.

Go early on th 3rd and the clock is reset. If you are a low risk group, it seems sensible to not rush to do it unless a more dangerous mutation comes about.
So plan to have two a year rather than 4 if you rush in after 3 months due to ‘encouragement’

This is from th point of view of someone with no axe to grind eithe way
 

Mofra

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So, your vaccinated status will expire 6 months after your last jab.

Go early on th 3rd and the clock is reset. If you are a low risk group, it seems sensible to not rush to do it unless a more dangerous mutation comes about.
So plan to have two a year rather than 4 if you rush in after 3 months due to ‘encouragement’

This is from th point of view of someone with no axe to grind eithe way
The policy still seems to miss the nuance for people who recently have had Covid - should they have an extension to their booster schedule? Some of the comments by experts/CHOs suggest yes. If you get Covid 5 months after your 2nd shot, it seems a little redundant to go out and get your booster a couple of weeks after having Covid.
 

sr36

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The policy still seems to miss the nuance for people who recently have had Covid - should they have an extension to their booster schedule? Some of the comments by experts/CHOs suggest yes. If you get Covid 5 months after your 2nd shot, it seems a little redundant to go out and get your booster a couple of weeks after having Covid.
I agree, but it's probably for practical reasons. If they want to make it mandatory, bringing prior covid into the equation probably makes it too hard, particularly with RAT, but I don't think mandates will last that much longer, so soon I don't think it will be relevant. There will be those who choose to stay update with their shots and those who don't, much like what currently occurs with the flu.
 

Mofra

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I agree, but it's probably for practical reasons. If they want to make it mandatory, bringing prior covid into the equation probably makes it too hard, particularly with RAT, but I don't think mandates will last that much longer, so soon I don't think it will be relevant. There will be those who choose to stay update with their shots and those who don't, much like what currently occurs with the flu.
I suspect states will still enforce their own mandates even if the Feds lift restrictions. We might have the situation in the future of WA having mandates and no other state having population-wide mandates.
There will be some industries that require ongoing up to date vaccinations too e.g. healthcare workers and aged care workers.
 

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sr36

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I suspect states will still enforce their own mandates even if the Feds lift restrictions. We might have the situation in the future of WA having mandates and no other state having population-wide mandates.
There will be some industries that require ongoing up to date vaccinations too e.g. healthcare workers and aged care workers.
Yeah true. Which is the point I suppose of why they haven't made covid count - bloody hard to check if claim of covid case is legit. Plus in Europe where covid has given 6 months exemption from vaccine mandates, there's been lots of stories of intentional covid catching in preference to a vaccine.
 

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