eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Geelong: The Cats had a poor game to start off the Marsh Series, getting smashed by Gold Coast, going down by 68 points as the Suns ran riot. Quinton Narkle was excellent for Geelong with 26 disposals whilst Gary Rohan was the only multiple goal scorer with 3, Tom Atkins also doing well with 22 touches and a goal.
Essendon: Essendon had a great win against West Coast in Perth, the team putting the heat up on the Eagles. Will Snelling was close to best afield, his pressure was outstanding, having 20 disposals, 7 tackles and 2 goals, Whilst Darcy Parish collected 29 disposals and a goal
Head to Head (last 5)
Geelong 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Geelong: 0W 0L
Essendon: 0W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Geelong: N/A
Essendon: N/A
Line: N/A ($1.90)
Possible sides
Geelong vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
F: Gary Rohan - Tom Hawkins - Gryan Miers
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Josh Jenkins - Esava Ratugolea - Gary Ablett
C: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - David Zaharakis
C: Brandon Parfitt - Joel Selwood - Jacob Kennerley
HF: Jayden Laverde - Jake Stringer - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Thomas Stewart - Harry Taylor - Jordan Clark
F: Orazio Fantasia - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
B: Mark O'Connor - Mark Blicavs - Jack Henry
R: Andrew Phillips - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Clarke
R: Rhys Stanley - Patrick Dangerfield - Quinton Narkle
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - Conor McKenna
I: Jack Steven - Cameron Guthrie - Zach Tuohy - Tom Atkins
I: Brayden Ham - Dylan Shiel - Nigel Lockyer - Brynn Teakle
I: Sam Menegola - Jed Bews - Charlie Constable - Bradley Close
Geelong in: N/A; Out: N/A
Essendon in: N/A; Out: N/A
Geelong defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Geelong's defence was in the top 4 in this area, constricting the opposition to a goal just 18.9% of the time it entered their defensive 50. Essendon will probably run with a smaller forward line than usual with their injuries, so Mark Blicavs against Shaun McKernan will be one to watch, with McKernan being the only real tall target inside 50, which means Jake Stringer and Jayden Laverde will need to keep intercept experts Harry Taylor and Tom Stewart occupied so smalls Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Will Snelling can have a chance to crumb the ball.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall, whilst Geelong were mid table in that particular area. Dylan Clarke will get the challenge of tagging Patrick Dangerfield in preparation of his likely round 1 job of Nat Fyfe, leaving the likes of Joel Selwood, Quinton Narkle and Jack Steven to go head to head with Devon Smith, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett to go head to head in the battle of smaller midfielders. Brandon Parfitt and Andrew McGrath look likely to go head to head on a wing, their speed and two way running being key features for each player, whilst Brayden Ham and Jacob Kennerley could compete on the other wing as two young, hard running players. Rucks wise, expect Andrew Phillips' physicality to have the advantage over Rhys Stanley at the stoppage whilst the latter will have a distinct athletic advantage.
Geelong forward line vs Essendon defence
Geelong were also very strong forward of centre last year, kicking a goal 24.5% of the time it entered their forward fifty. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Geelong are going for a 3 tall forward structure nowadays with Tom Hawkins, Josh Jenkins and Esava Ratugolea, young Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will get a big test against Jenkins whilst Michael Hurley and Aaron Francis will likely take Hawkins and Ratugolea respectively. Gary Rohan is a medium forward with good hands and pressure, watch him and Martin Gleeson reunite for the first time since that infamous day in Sydney, whilst Adam Saad will play on superstar Gary Ablett whilst he's up there.
X-Factor Player
Mark O'Connor cam on in leaps and bounds last season, the Irishman quietly becoming a very good player, without the hype of some of his countrymen such as Essendon's Conor McKenna, who he could in fact match up on, or Hawthorne's Conor Nash. Watch this space.
Key stat
Geelong: Clearances. Dangerfield, Selwood, Steven. Need to use these inside beasts well to win this game.
Essendon: Inside 50's. Essendon need 50+ inside 50's to win a game of football, they're good at generating shots at goal when in there.
Tip
Great win last time, hope to have a similar effort but I see Geelong winning by 13 points.
Geelong: The Cats had a poor game to start off the Marsh Series, getting smashed by Gold Coast, going down by 68 points as the Suns ran riot. Quinton Narkle was excellent for Geelong with 26 disposals whilst Gary Rohan was the only multiple goal scorer with 3, Tom Atkins also doing well with 22 touches and a goal.
Essendon: Essendon had a great win against West Coast in Perth, the team putting the heat up on the Eagles. Will Snelling was close to best afield, his pressure was outstanding, having 20 disposals, 7 tackles and 2 goals, Whilst Darcy Parish collected 29 disposals and a goal
Head to Head (last 5)
Geelong 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Geelong: 0W 0L
Essendon: 0W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Geelong: N/A
Essendon: N/A
Line: N/A ($1.90)
Possible sides
Geelong vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
F: Gary Rohan - Tom Hawkins - Gryan Miers
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Josh Jenkins - Esava Ratugolea - Gary Ablett
C: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - David Zaharakis
C: Brandon Parfitt - Joel Selwood - Jacob Kennerley
HF: Jayden Laverde - Jake Stringer - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Thomas Stewart - Harry Taylor - Jordan Clark
F: Orazio Fantasia - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
B: Mark O'Connor - Mark Blicavs - Jack Henry
R: Andrew Phillips - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Clarke
R: Rhys Stanley - Patrick Dangerfield - Quinton Narkle
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - Conor McKenna
I: Jack Steven - Cameron Guthrie - Zach Tuohy - Tom Atkins
I: Brayden Ham - Dylan Shiel - Nigel Lockyer - Brynn Teakle
I: Sam Menegola - Jed Bews - Charlie Constable - Bradley Close
Geelong in: N/A; Out: N/A
Essendon in: N/A; Out: N/A
Geelong defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Geelong's defence was in the top 4 in this area, constricting the opposition to a goal just 18.9% of the time it entered their defensive 50. Essendon will probably run with a smaller forward line than usual with their injuries, so Mark Blicavs against Shaun McKernan will be one to watch, with McKernan being the only real tall target inside 50, which means Jake Stringer and Jayden Laverde will need to keep intercept experts Harry Taylor and Tom Stewart occupied so smalls Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Will Snelling can have a chance to crumb the ball.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall, whilst Geelong were mid table in that particular area. Dylan Clarke will get the challenge of tagging Patrick Dangerfield in preparation of his likely round 1 job of Nat Fyfe, leaving the likes of Joel Selwood, Quinton Narkle and Jack Steven to go head to head with Devon Smith, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett to go head to head in the battle of smaller midfielders. Brandon Parfitt and Andrew McGrath look likely to go head to head on a wing, their speed and two way running being key features for each player, whilst Brayden Ham and Jacob Kennerley could compete on the other wing as two young, hard running players. Rucks wise, expect Andrew Phillips' physicality to have the advantage over Rhys Stanley at the stoppage whilst the latter will have a distinct athletic advantage.
Geelong forward line vs Essendon defence
Geelong were also very strong forward of centre last year, kicking a goal 24.5% of the time it entered their forward fifty. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Geelong are going for a 3 tall forward structure nowadays with Tom Hawkins, Josh Jenkins and Esava Ratugolea, young Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will get a big test against Jenkins whilst Michael Hurley and Aaron Francis will likely take Hawkins and Ratugolea respectively. Gary Rohan is a medium forward with good hands and pressure, watch him and Martin Gleeson reunite for the first time since that infamous day in Sydney, whilst Adam Saad will play on superstar Gary Ablett whilst he's up there.
X-Factor Player
Mark O'Connor cam on in leaps and bounds last season, the Irishman quietly becoming a very good player, without the hype of some of his countrymen such as Essendon's Conor McKenna, who he could in fact match up on, or Hawthorne's Conor Nash. Watch this space.
Key stat
Geelong: Clearances. Dangerfield, Selwood, Steven. Need to use these inside beasts well to win this game.
Essendon: Inside 50's. Essendon need 50+ inside 50's to win a game of football, they're good at generating shots at goal when in there.
Tip
Great win last time, hope to have a similar effort but I see Geelong winning by 13 points.
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