Max Bailey v Angus Graham

[Ghost of Punt Road]

Given it takes a few years to get any real handle on ruck prospects, I was interested in something that happened in the 2005 draft. Max Bailey was taken by the Hawks at pick 18, and Angus Graham by the Tigers as a rookie pick.

Now I consider pick 18 or above pretty high for a Ruckman, since I consider they often don't make it. (Vickery therefore I consider a very high cost pick).

So when a 'good' prospect was picked at 18, I was looking forward to how that would compare to a rookie pick (a place made for picking ruck prospects IMO).

Max Bailey: Drafted at 206cm, 93kg. Now 206cm, 107kg
Angus Graham: Drafted 200cm, 93kg. Now 201cm, 100kg

The only other mention at draft camp is Graham made the top 12 in verticle leap (65cm), possibly letting him play taller. Not sure of Bailey's leap but it was less.


MB / AG

Matches: 6 / 25
Average disposals: 4.8 / 9.9
Average Hit outs: 8 / 15.1
Average tackles: 1.8 / 3.2
Career goals: 0 / 7
Average marks: 1.8 / 3.6

So far, my statistically insignificant theory is bourne out. You have just as much chance getting a good ruck in rookie draft as higher up the list.

I am going to watch another comparison between Andrew Browne (Rookie) and Tyrone Vickery (pick 8)

 

[Firebat]

Bailey is chronically injured... couldn't you pick someone who is actually playing at the moment?

 

[La Vache]

If it is your belief that Hawthorn recruiters had foreseen 3 future knee reconstructions for Bailey before selecting him then your logic is solid as a rock.

 

[swansfan51]

So far, my statistically insignificant theory is bourne out. You have just as much chance getting a good ruck in rookie draft as higher up the list.

Jesus, a sample size of one. However I'll stay in the spirit of the thread.

You have as much chance of drafting a midfielder who doesn't look completely out of his depth at AFL level with a 3rd round pick as you do with a 1st round pick. Proof:

Richard Tambling and Danny Meyer were drafted with picks 4 and 12 in the 2004 AFL draft. I have no idea who drafted them, memory fails me. In contrast, Justin Sherman and Mark LeCras were drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 AFL draft.

The theory is probably already proven there, but I've done more research just in case. Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls was selected with pick 8 in the 2005 AFL draft. In contrast, Andrew Swallow was picked in the 3rd round of the 2005 AFL draft.

You have more chance of drafting a midfielder who at least marginally resembles an AFL player with a 3rd round pick than a 1st round pick. Fact.

 

[WALL-e]

Hindsight thread.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

MB / AG

Matches: 6 / 25
Average disposals: 4.8 / 9.9
Average Hit outs: 8 / 15.1
Average tackles: 1.8 / 3.2
Career goals: 0 / 7
Average marks: 1.8 / 3.6

Stats are absolutely useless in this comparison - Bailey played 4 games in his first year, then of the next 2 (which were last year) he was injured in the first 10 minutes in the latter game.

Graham on the other hand played 2 games in his 2nd year and the rest last and this year.

 

[Ghost of Punt Road]

i hear what folks are saying about injury making the difference here, but i consider that the recruiters and footy department are held responsible for assessing how prone players are to certain injuries, and or how to manage them.

Some injuries fall outside of this, but not many.

For example:

Hodge was well managed when for his first couple of years he was prone to Hamstring issues. He was 'made good'. Bailey has not yet.

Vickery is post knee reconstruction (only one so far, not three), so far has been re-habilitated okay.

Dowler and Joel Selwood were drafted by recruiters who had assessed their injuries or susceptibility to them.

i don't think we can just disregard a comparison due to injury (at least not entirely). Assessing and managing injury is a full time part of footy departments now. It is no longer luck.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

i hear what folks are saying about injury making the difference here, but i consider that the recruiters and footy department are held responsible for assessing how prone players are to certain injuries, and or how to manage them.

Some injuries fall outside of this, but not many.

For example:

Hodge was well managed when for his first couple of years he was prone to Hamstring issues. He was 'made good'. Bailey has not yet.

Vickery is post knee reconstruction (only one so far, not three), so far has been re-habilitated okay.

Dowler and Joel Selwood were drafted by recruiters who had assessed their injuries or susceptibility to them.

i don't think we can just disregard a comparison due to injury (at least not entirely). Assessing and managing injury is a full time part of footy departments now. It is no longer luck.

Sorry but that's a load of tripe.

You can manage say soft tissue injuries, OP, etc, as they are a direct result of training.

But how exactly do you think clubs should test at draft camp so see if someone is going to need 2 knee reconstructions? There is no way to test if someones knees are succeptable to rupturing.

Or should clubs bring in the clairvoyant to read someones palm and see if they will break their leg 2 years into their career.

 

[AC for PM]

In other news Freo's recruiting staff are on the chopping block (again) for drafting Michael Barlow when it was quite clear his leg was prone to breaking.

 

[Coledinho]

In other news Freo's recruiting staff are on the chopping block (again) for drafting Michael Barlow when it was quite clear his leg was prone to breaking.

And thats the end of this chapter. If this thread failed any harder it would own a Richmond membership

 

[DanA]

The stupid thing about this thread is Bailey has more talent in his little toe than Graham ever will.

 

[muttonchops]

The stupid thing about this thread is Bailey has more talent in his little toe than Graham ever will.

Just be careful with that, there are many cases of players having the talent but not the desire and work ethic to realise that talent. Bailey of course cannot be judged due to injury. But there are many players who dont quite have the talent but through sheer hard work become successful players, Angus Graham may be one of them.

 

[coke_zero]

The stupid thing about this thread is Bailey has more talent in his little toe than Graham ever will.

the stupid thing about this post is you dont even watch richmond games.

 

[Sin City]

the stupid thing about this post is you dont even watch richmond games.

Don't blame him.

 

[DanA]

the stupid thing about this post is you dont even watch richmond games.

I watched him potter around my gym doing bugger all for two years,

 

[Spluff]

Angus Graham? More like MANgus Graham.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What a terrible comparison.

Could you have sourced a more injury riddled career to put up against your Tiger?

And fancy the recruiters at Hawthorn not being able to forsee someone falling over Bailey's knee at training.

 

[Great 2008]

What a terrible comparison.

Could you have sourced a more injury riddled career to put up against your Tiger?

And fancy the recruiters at Hawthorn not being able to forsee someone falling over Bailey's knee at training.

Just shows how depserate the Tigers are for some form of success. Well done Angus is proving a better choice....at the moment.

 

[Monkey King]

You have just as much chance getting a good ruck in rookie draft as higher up the list.

Below is a list of most current ruckmen and where in the draft they were taken. It seems your statement isn't that far off the mark. Most from the rookie draft rucks have been the best rucks of the year.

Top 10
Leuenberger
Naitanui
Kreuzer
McIntosh
Ryder
Ottens
Clark
Gardiner

First Round

Second Round
Minson
Renouf

Round Three
Blake (F&S)
Goldstein
Hille
Maric

Round Four
Hudson

Rookie List
Sandilands
Mumford
Jolly
Cox
Jamar
Jacobs
Brogan

 

[Furn]

Gopt to consider that there are only 10 top 10 picks each year while there are 40-50 players taken in the rookie draft. So the percentage of players that make it from the top 10 is still higher.

 

[Spluff]

Not to mention that most of the players from the Rookie draft were drafted a long time ago when talent identification was comparitively poor, whereas all the top young ruckmen but Mumford and Goldstein came from the Top 10. Players just don't slip through quite as easily these days.

 

[the ranger]

If anyone's interested, here's what the Phantom draft on afl.com.au had to say about them prior to the draft:

37 - COLLINGWOOD - Max Bailey
West Perth, 23 October 1986, 205.8cm, 93kg

One of best young rucks in this year's pool, Bailey has the ability to be selected much earlier in the draft and could even figure in Collingwood's plans at No.21 or No.23. West Coast and Geelong will be in contention, while Melbourne and Sydney are believed to be keen, although he is unlikely to be selected in the fourth round, when the latter two clubs are more prominent in the draft. At a whopping 205cm, Bailey is mobile for his size, while he is good in contested marking situations. He is surprisingly quick off the mark and has clean hands for a big man. This is set to be Collingwood's last selection in this draft, as it is believed it will utilise its pre-season selection on former Lion Travis Baird.

67 - RICHMOND - Angus Graham
Calder Cannons, 16 April 1987, 200.3cm, 92.6kg

Graham is another ruckman that could go late in the pecking order, with Richmond and Essendon right in the mix. The Tigers will be looking for an emerging tall, with Graham a genuine possibility. Originally from King Island, Graham represented Tasmania at under-18 level this year, although he played football for Calder and Assumption College. He is a strong mark and quick off the mark for his size. He achieved level 13.3 in the beep test at the Draft Camp.

 

[demondavey]

Bailey is chronically injured... couldn't you pick someone who is actually playing at the moment?

Great post. The OP has simply taken two kids from that draft as a point of comparison and has overlooked the fact Bailey has hardly played. I would say he is using this as an avenue to pump up A.Graham. Why does he not just re label the thread 'Angus Graham - Potential A Grade Ruckman'??? or 'Richmond finally got a draft pick right'

 

[Bomberman86]

Sorry but that's a load of tripe.

You can manage say soft tissue injuries, OP, etc, as they are a direct result of training.

But how exactly do you think clubs should test at draft camp so see if someone is going to need 2 knee reconstructions? There is no way to test if someones knees are succeptable to rupturing.

Or should clubs bring in the clairvoyant to read someones palm and see if they will break their leg 2 years into their career.

Agreed. You can maybe assess any previous knee injuries, size/build/risk, and decide, but really a knee injury will occur prone to it or not if its going too..

 

[MightyTiger]

Lets compare him to Brent Renouf then.

Angus/Renouf

Angus:Average Career Stats

Rookie drafted 2005
Round 1, Pick #5

Games: 25
Kicks Per Game: 4.4
Handballs Per Game: 8.6
Disposals Per Game: 13.0
Marks Per Game: 4.7
Goals Per Game: 0.3
Behinds Per Game: 0.3
Tackles Per Game: 4.3
Hitouts Per Game: 19.0


Renouf: Average Career Stats

2006 National Draft
Round 2, Pick #24

Games: 36
Kicks Per Game: 2.6
Handballs Per Game: 6.4
Disposals Per Game: 9.0
Marks Per Game: 2.6
Goals Per Game: 0.1
Behinds Per Game: 0.2
Tackles Per Game: 3.1
Hitouts Per Game: 14.9

Stats taken directly from Footywire.

Renouf is still playing isn't he.