Max King

[Meteoric Rise]

Having been banned for a few weeks it was interesting just to occasionally peruse this place and see some of the criticism that certain players attract.

It seems ANYONE that has the misfortune of actually being thought of as ‘good at footy’ is basically destined to just be called crap unless they are perpetually bombing 6 goals a game/having 35 touches/keeping a gorilla forward goalless every week.

King is a jet. If I could have my pick of any under 25 forward for the next decade it would be him. The only thing stopping him from already being equal with the very best forwards of all ages is his finishing. And that can be fixed.

I’ve seen Ugle-Hagan cop an absolute gobful from a few people the other night against us. Playing against the league leaders, at a venue his team hasn’t won at since before he was born, he kicked a couple of goals and when his influence on the scoreboard started to dissipate because his side couldn’t get the ball inside 50, off his own bat he started pushing up to the wing and winning the ball there.

The desire to crush a kid because he isn’t John Coleman within the football fandom fraternity is utterly bewildering

Why aren’t you equally bewildered then by the desire to elevate every youngster who looks a strong prospect to “elite” or “jet” status ahead of their time?

Why is misplaced praise more valuable than balanced commentary? It doesn’t make sense PB.

You are tilting at windmills here.

 

[t_94]

Jesus PJays the way you were talking was like the man Saints fans call “Max” was going to overtake all the forwards ahead of him and take the world by storm.

You didn’t tell us that younger players would start going past Max “Yesterday” King. The most targetted forward in the AFL.

Goals + Goal Assists

3.33 per game 20yo Jamarra Ugle-Hagan(v Saints, Demons, Cats in last 3 weeks since he found his feet)

3.25 per game. 21yo Noah Cumberland(career average)

3.16 22yo Aaron Naughton 2022 season

2.9 22yo Max King, since he “turned the corner” in round 13, 2021.


Dear oh dear Max you are now plummeting down the 22yo and under AFL forward rankings like a stone.

R U Ok?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

R U Ok?

Thank you for asking that is very kind. I think I am ok, a little wistful I guess.

 

[PJays]

The only thing stopping him from already being equal with the very best forwards of all ages is his finishing. And that can be fixed.

Spot on. And the weekend was a great example. His best game in a while, should've kicked 4 or 5 but ended with 2.

46 goals 36 behinds (56%) is the worst accuracy of the top goalkickers. Same as last year (38 goals 30 behinds, 56%). It remains a weakness.

He needs a few small improvements here and there, and increase that 56% accuracy to say, 65% in line with the other top spearheads. Tick those boxes and he'll be right near the top of the Coleman tally year in, year out.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Spot on. And the weekend was a great example. His best game in a while, should've kicked 4 or 5 but ended with 2.

46 goals 36 behinds (56%) is the worst accuracy of the top goalkickers. Same as last year (38 goals 30 behinds, 56%). It remains a weakness.

He needs a few small improvements here and there, and increase that 56% accuracy to say, 65% in line with the other top spearheads. Tick those boxes and he'll be right near the top of the Coleman tally year in, year out.

But PJays, Richmond mid Shai Bolton has 13 less scoring shots for the season than Max, and only 2 less goals + goal assists, and 4 less scoring shots + goal assists. And he is a midfielder and part-time small forward. Your “elite" key forward is barely having more scoreboard impact than a part time small forward. How can this be PJays? Especially given your man is the most targetted forward in the AFL.

I think you need to keep your hand away from your erogenous zone until Max actually makes the grade.

 

[PhatBoy]

Why aren’t you equally bewildered then by the desire to elevate every youngster who looks a strong prospect to “elite” or “jet” status ahead of their time?

Why is misplaced praise more valuable than balanced commentary? It doesn’t make sense PB.

You are tilting at windmills here.

Because the habit you allude to is a lot less prevalent than the one I’m alluding to.

You’re conflagration of ‘people saying a kid is going to be exceptional’ and ‘people saying a kid already is exceptional’ is one of your problems here.

I’ve hardly seen anyone say anything about King’s ceiling or his ability that is not warranted. I’ve also not seen anyone say anything about his current level that is not warranted.
Who gives a f*** if he’s getting 0.004 hard ball gets less than some other early 20s key forward or whatever comparison anyone wants to make.

F***ing look at the kid. If he could kick straight - yes it’s a pretty important if - he’d be the most talked about player in the game and rightly so.

What misplaced praise, exactly?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Because the habit you allude to is a lot less prevalent than the one I’m alluding to.

You’re conflagration of ‘people saying a kid is going to be exceptional’ and ‘people saying a kid already is exceptional’ is one of your problems here.

I’ve hardly seen anyone say anything about King’s ceiling or his ability that is not warranted. I’ve also not seen anyone say anything about his current level that is not warranted.
Who gives a f*** if he’s getting 0.004 hard ball gets less than some other early 20s key forward or whatever comparison anyone wants to make.

F***ing look at the kid. If he could kick straight - yes it’s a pretty important if - he’d be the most talked about player in the game and rightly so.

What misplaced praise, exactly?

My main target is your running mate PJays claim Max King has arrived as an elite key forward. I haven’t conflated that with anything. It is wrong and has been shown to be wrong. At some point in the future it will probably be right. But this is no reason for him to be declared elite ahead of his time. If you are more sensible than PJays and can see Max is doing well for a 22yo key forward then join the queue buddy, the whole planet can see that.

King’s best performance against any top 12 team this season(from 12 matches) is 4 goals + goal assists, something he achieved twice in the early part of the season v Dockers and Tigers. Which was the basis of PJays going off 1/8th cocked. And….Max hasn’t produced that since. Aaron Naughton, who is also 22 yeqrs old, has done in 4 times this season v top 12 teams. Shai Bolton, who is a midget part-time forward only a year older at 23yo has done it 3 times. Mitchell Lewis is 23yo, has played in 4 less games than Max King and has done it 5 times.

This is just off the top of my head amongst the young fraternity. King sits 11th in the AFL for average goals per game. He sits equal 218th for goal assists per game. And 9th amongst key forwards for score involvements per game. This is all perfectly tidy, but it does not make him an elite key forward. You could simply acknowledge that point and move on, but you seem to want to attack the truth and praise the myth here.

 

[PhatBoy]

My main target is your running mate PJays claim Max King has arrived as an elite key forward. I haven’t conflated that with anything. It is wrong and has been shown to be wrong. At some point in the future it will probably be right. But this is no reason for him to be declared elite ahead of his time. If you are more sensible than PJays and can see Max is doing well for a 22yo key forward then join the queue buddy, the whole planet can see that.

King’s best performance against any top 12 team this season(from 12 matches) is 4 goals + goal assists, something he achieved twice in the early part of the season v Dockers and Tigers. Which was the basis of PJays going off 1/8th cocked. And….Max hasn’t produced that since. Aaron Naughton, who is also 22 yeqrs old, has done in 4 times this season v top 12 teams. Shai Bolton, who is a midget part-time forward only a year older at 23yo has done it 3 times. Mitchell Lewis is 23yo, has played in 4 less games than Max King and has done it 5 times.

This is just off the top of my head amongst the young fraternity. King sits 11th in the AFL for average goals per game. He sits equal 218th for goal assists per game. And 9th amongst key forwards for score involvements per game. This is all perfectly tidy, but it does not make him an elite key forward. You could simply acknowledge that point and move on, but you seem to want to attack the truth and praise the myth here.

He has arrived as an elite key forward.

There are what, 50-ish of them in the competition? He’s in the top 10 easily.

Why are you comparing him to a midget part time forward if you’re discussing his elite or non elite status as a key forward? It’s irrelevant. Be like someone in the AA threat trying to say Tyson Stengle isn’t good enough because he hasn’t kicked 5+ this year when Nick Larkey has done it twice.

 

[PhatBoy]

And I haven’t attacked anything. I’m just absolutely staggered about the fact that this is even a point of discussion:

Key forwards have a number of jobs but the two most obvious and visible ones are to mark the ball in packs and kick goals. He does both at a very high level. Does he kick the goals of McKay or Curnow or Cameron? no. Does he have the extra nuances and touch to his game of Franklin or Hawkins? No. But he does those two very basic things at an elite level and in the case of his marking it’s extra elite.

There’s better forwards going around. But of the 108 players that start in attacking 50m arcs each week and the other 18 that go down there for a spell, I don’t think enough of them are better than Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

to say that he’s not among the elite.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He has arrived as an elite key forward.

There are what, 50-ish of them in the competition? He’s in the top 10 easily.

Champion Data define elite as being in the top 10% in your position, not the top 10, but nice attempt. Realistically there are probably 36 key forwards out on the park each weekend, but some lines are blurred around whether you count ruck/forwards etc, but pure full-time key forwards there are 36 max and sometimes less.

So top 10 would not be considered elite, more like top 5. And it is highly doubtful Max King is “in the top 10 easily” in any event. At absolute best he would be scraping the fringe behind:

Hawkins, Cameron, Lynch, Lewis, Walker, Curnow, McKay, Wright, Naughton, Franklin.

So he probably sits 11th based on 2022 performance. Which probably means he is roughly average AFL level for a primary key forward target. Admittedly a tough school but that is where he sits. Clearly not elite.

 

[PhatBoy]

Champion Data define elite as being in the top 10% in your position, not the top 10, but nice attempt. Realistically there are probably 36 key forwards out on the park each weekend, but some lines are blurred around whether you count ruck/forwards etc, but pure full-time key forwards there are 36 max and sometimes less.

So top 10 would not be considered elite, more like top 5. And it is highly doubtful Max King is “in the top 10 easily” in any event. At absolute best he would be scraping the fringe behind:

Hawkins, Cameron, Lynch, Lewis, Walker, Curnow, McKay, Wright, Naughton, Franklin.

So he probably sits 11th based on 2022 performance. Which probably means he is roughly average AFL level for a primary key forward target. Admittedly a tough school but that is where he sits. Clearly not elite.

I’ll be sure to base all my definitions around a statistical agency’s reframing of the word from here on in.

 

[PJays]

The numbers

Goals - 5th in the AFL with 46 goals

Score Involvements- 7th amongst key forwards, 24th in AFL with 118 score involvements.

Contested marks- 1st in AFL (Equal with Tom Lynch) with 44 contested marks

For me it's always been the eye test that shows King's ability and immense potential.

But those key numbers pretty comprehensively do show he's consistently getting it done and deserves to be rated top 10 (if not top 5) amongst key forwards.

I'd expect most would have him ahead of several on the list posted above by Meteoric Ruse

Here's a thought experiment. If the AFL introduced a 19th team next year and they could pick one key forward to add to their team for one season only (to avoid biasing the discussion against a veteran like Hawkins), who would be your top 5 or top 10? And ignoring off field factors like Buddy's star factor

Neutral fans feel free to chime in

 

[PhatBoy]

The numbers

Goals - 5th in the AFL with 46 goals

Score Involvements- 7th amongst key forwards, 24th in AFL with 118 score involvements.

Contested marks- 1st in AFL (Equal with Tom Lynch) with 44 contested marks

For me it's always been the eye test that shows King's ability and immense potential.

But those key numbers pretty comprehensively do show he's consistently getting it done and deserves to be rated top 10 (if not top 5) amongst key forwards.

I'd expect most would have him ahead of several on the list posted above by Meteoric Ruse

Here's a thought experiment. If the AFL introduced a 19th team next year and they could pick one key forward to add to their team for one season only (to avoid biasing the discussion against a veteran like Hawkins), who would be your top 5 or top 10? And ignoring off field factors like Buddy's star factor

Neutral fans feel free to chime in

Let’s say hypothetically their goal was to win the comp in that one year I would pick something like:

1. Cameron
2. Hawkins
3. Curnow
4. Lynch
5. McKay
6. King
7. Naughton
8. Wright
9. Franklin
10. Darling

 

[MisterMarcus]

Why aren’t you equally bewildered then by the desire to elevate every youngster who looks a strong prospect to “elite” or “jet” status ahead of their time?

Why is misplaced praise more valuable than balanced commentary? It doesn’t make sense PB.

You are tilting at windmills here.

Because it’s almost never “balanced commentary “, it’s just unrelenting bagging.

When the player they’re providing “balanced commentary “ on has a good game, the posters all go running and hiding, or try to talk the performance down….

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Because it’s almost never “balanced commentary “, it’s just unrelenting bagging.

When the player they’re providing “balanced commentary “ on has a good game, the posters all go running and hiding, or try to talk the performance down….

Well it is open to any poster to pick up on any post they see as being wrong and speak to the points within that post. What are the things that have been said on this thread you disagree with? And why?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’ll be sure to base all my definitions around a statistical agency’s reframing of the word from here on in.

Ok let’s look at your definition then. If you are in the top 10 ruckmen in the AFL you are an elite AFL ruckman? Top 10 key forwards are elite? Top 10 key defenders are elite? Top 10 wingers are elite? Top 10 half backs? Presumably the top 20 inside mids as there are more of them? Top 10 hybrid forwards? Top 10 Hybrid defenders? Top 10 pressure forwards? Top 10 running backs? Top 10 high half forwards?

If so you have 110 of the 396 players going around each week defined as elite AFL footballers….if you also have 110 above average AFL footballers, you now have just as many elite as there are above average. And the two added together form more than half of the players who play each week. And your average category would therefore be getting pushed back to the bottom half of the players running around each week, which means they are not average.

Do you see the problem with this?

So how about you tell us how you categorise the players in terms of elite and other gradings. How many in each position are elite in the position? How many AFL players are elite in total? How many are above average? How many are average? How many below average?

Because at the moment your elite is looking a bit too crowded to me. Such that when you call a player elite it may not be saying much.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The numbers

Goals - 5th in the AFL with 46 goals

Score Involvements- 7th amongst key forwards, 24th in AFL with 118 score involvements.

Contested marks- 1st in AFL (Equal with Tom Lynch) with 44 contested marks

For me it's always been the eye test that shows King's ability and immense potential.

But those key numbers pretty comprehensively do show he's consistently getting it done and deserves to be rated top 10 (if not top 5) amongst key forwards.

I'd expect most would have him ahead of several on the list posted above by Meteoric Ruse

Here's a thought experiment. If the AFL introduced a 19th team next year and they could pick one key forward to add to their team for one season only (to avoid biasing the discussion against a veteran like Hawkins), who would be your top 5 or top 10? And ignoring off field factors like Buddy's star factor

Neutral fans feel free to chime in

You are using aggregate numbers there. Averages per game are a lot more credible.

Has Max King performed at elite level for a key forward this season or not?

 

[PJays]

Has Max King performed at elite level for a key forward this season or not?

He's borderline. On the cusp.

It depends on your definition of elite but I'd say making the AA40 makes you elite. Top 40 in a comp with 18 teams, 700 odd players, and maybe 250 (10-15 per team) who are automatic selections for their team if healthy.

At the halfway point of the season I would've said emphatically yes. As evidenced by a few commentators having him in their mid season All Australian team. And those who didn't include him (the majority) mentioned he was just a smidge behind those they selected.

So at that point he was clearly considered a top 5 key forward, and top 30 or 40 players in the AFL, after some match winning performances early this season.

His back half of the season has obviously been less impressive.

 

[PhatBoy]

Ok let’s look at your definition then. If you are in the top 10 ruckmen in the AFL you are an elite AFL ruckman? Top 10 key forwards are elite? Top 10 key defenders are elite? Top 10 wingers are elite? Top 10 half backs? Presumably the top 20 inside mids as there are more of them? Top 10 hybrid forwards? Top 10 Hybrid defenders? Top 10 pressure forwards? Top 10 running backs? Top 10 high half forwards?

If so you have 110 of the 396 players going around each week defined as elite AFL footballers….if you also have 110 above average AFL footballers, you now have just as many elite as there are above average. And the two added together form more than half of the players who play each week. And your average category would therefore be getting pushed back to the bottom half of the players running around each week, which means they are not average.

Do you see the problem with this?

So how about you tell us how you categorise the players in terms of elite and other gradings. How many in each position are elite in the position? How many AFL players are elite in total? How many are above average? How many are average? How many below average?

Because at the moment your elite is looking a bit too crowded to me. Such that when you call a player elite it may not be saying much.

There is one specialist ruckman per team, and a relief ruckman. If someone could walk into a good team and make it better that would be a start. Of the teams with relatively elite tall forward lines: Max King would make any side better, even ours: Cameron doesn’t play like a normal tall so there’s no worry about him being a burden because of his size. Jack Riewoldt is cooked so he’d walk into that forward line easily. Kennedy is cooked and he’s better than darling now anyways. He’s clearly better than Ben Brown so he walks into Melbourne’s.
If you wanted to put him behind Naughton that’s a personal preference but he’s better (for now) than Ugle Hagen and Bruce. You could MAYBE argue that he makes Carlton too tall but he’s still very close to McKay currently - McKay has runs on the board as a past coleman medalist. So on the ‘would any team like him and benefit from him’ score he ticks those boxes.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He's borderline. On the cusp.

It depends on your definition of elite but I'd say making the AA40 makes you elite. Top 40 in a comp with 18 teams, 700 odd players, and maybe 250 (10-15 per team) who are automatic selections for their team if healthy.

At the halfway point of the season I would've said emphatically yes. As evidenced by a few commentators having him in their mid season All Australian team. And those who didn't include him (the majority) mentioned he was just a smidge behind those they selected.

So at that point he was clearly considered a top 5 key forward, and top 30 or 40 players in the AFL, after some match winning performances early this season.

His back half of the season has obviously been less impressive.

I think you are closer to the mark in terms of how many AFL players are elite at any given time. Something like 4-5 each of these positions: ruck(including ruck/forwards) running defender, hybrid/intercept defender, key defender, wing, running forward, hybrid or mid forward, key forward and probably about 8-10 inside midfielders. maybe 50 odd players tops.

Not sure about the AA squad being automatic elite. Players who play every game can get picked over players who miss 6 or more games but be nowhere near as good.

Key forwards this year it is a bit murky. There are a lot of players with not too much between them, but over the season Max looks a bit below the top five, probably Hawkins, Cameron, Walker, Lynch, Curnow. But I have Naughton, Lewis, McKay and Wright right on the heels of that group this year. And Max just a bit below them over this season with one or two others. He is not quite there yet.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

There is one specialist ruckman per team, and a relief ruckman. If someone could walk into a good team and make it better that would be a start. Of the teams with relatively elite tall forward lines: Max King would make any side better, even ours: Cameron doesn’t play like a normal tall so there’s no worry about him being a burden because of his size. Jack Riewoldt is cooked so he’d walk into that forward line easily. Kennedy is cooked and he’s better than darling now anyways. He’s clearly better than Ben Brown so he walks into Melbourne’s.
If you wanted to put him behind Naughton that’s a personal preference but he’s better (for now) than Ugle Hagen and Bruce. You could MAYBE argue that he makes Carlton too tall but he’s still very close to McKay currently - McKay has runs on the board as a past coleman medalist. So on the ‘would any team like him and benefit from him’ score he ticks those boxes.

Now you are getting futher and further from the question of whether a player is elite. I think teams on average have about 3 elite players. And most of most teams' next 10 best players would likely make almost every other team better. That cannot be a measure of whether a player is elite.

My question that you have for some reason avoided is how many AFL players do you think are elite in their position? And how many are elite overall? PJays says the 40 AA squad members are elite in a season. I say 50 odd players but probably not coinciding perfectly with the AA squad. CD says top 10% in each position are elite which is roughly in line with PJays and myself. How many are you saying are elite?

 

[PhatBoy]

Now you are getting futher and further from the question of whether a player is elite. I think team son average have about 3 elite players. And most of most teams' next 10 best players would likely make almost every other team better. That cannot be a measure of whether a player is elite.

My question that you have for some reason avoided is how many AFL players do you think are elite in their position? And how many are elite overall? PJays says the 40 AA squad members are elite in a season. I say 50 odd players but probably not coinciding perfectly with the AA squad. CD says top 10% in each position are elite which is roughly in line with PJays and myself. How many are you saying are elite?

I haven’t avoided anything. I told you when I first posted on it this afternoon that if you’re in the top 20 per cent of your role out of a decent data set I think your comfortably in the elite bracket.

The same would go for any sport.

There’s 32 playmakers at any given time in the NRL.

Using the champion data metric only 3.2 of them are elite. That means essentially that one of the Origin halves isn’t elite. What a silly notion.


In the top 128 of the world tennis rankings (let’s assume all of them were on deck for a slam) the top 32 at grand slams are seeded. That’s the top 25 per cent. Do I think the 32nd best player is elite? Probably not, but I would suggest anyone in the top 20-25 is. Same with golf.

In cricket there are, nominally, 66 players at any given time playing shield. If you took the best 11 to form a Test team, that’s the top 17 per cent. That seems a fair enough mark to me.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I haven’t avoided anything. I told you when I first posted on it this afternoon that if you’re in the top 20 per cent of your role out of a decent data set I think your comfortably in the elite bracket.

The same would go for any sport.

There’s 32 playmakers at any given time in the NRL.

Using the champion data metric only 3.2 of them are elite. That means essentially that one of the Origin halves isn’t elite. What a silly notion.


In the top 128 of the world tennis rankings (let’s assume all of them were on deck for a slam) the top 32 at grand slams are seeded. That’s the top 25 per cent. Do I think the 32nd best player is elite? Probably not, but I would suggest anyone in the top 20-25 is. Same with golf.

In cricket there are, nominally, 66 players at any given time playing shield. If you took the best 11 to form a Test team, that’s the top 17 per cent. That seems a fair enough mark to me.

OK I will ignore that you have written the CD system of grading players in the AFL wouldn’t work in a sport it wasn’t designed for - NRL.

So in your system, if the top 20% of AFL players in each position are elite how many are respectively in the categories of above average, average and below average?

 

[PhatBoy]

OK I will ignore that you have written he CD system of grading players in the AFL wouldn’t work in a sport it wasn’t designed for - NRL.

So in your system, if the top 20% of AFL players in each position are elite how many are respectively in the categories of above average, average and below average?

Well by it’s very nature doesn’t the top 49 per cent of players qualify as above average?

 

[PhatBoy]

If forced I would I guess say a third of players are average, a third are below and a third are above