Melbourne $1.65 to make the 8

[melbournemartin]

North are $3.25 at centrebet, massive value

Who'd have guessed that the first reply in a Melbourne thread would be by a North Melbourne supporter?

 

[Demon 16]

Id be more likely to take Melbourne outside the 8 at $2.05 than inside the top at at $1.60.

Dont think Ill be taking either though.

Sydney at $1.90 and Carlton at $1.65 to make the 8 are the 2 I will stick in my multi.

 

[WCE_phil]

Anyone able to get any details on if its possible to bet on a team to get out of the bottom four or to set a line on number of wins?

Would be really interested in seeing how much its paying for west coast to be out of bottom 4. We have a really soft draw at home.

 

[Smokeyr67]

According to TAB Sportsbet

I know Dees are a team on the rise but $1.65? You'd be a pretty brave punter

Yeah, too short.

 

[Dawson]

Who cares where a team is bet to be at the start of the year, Richmond were odds on favourites to win the spoon and they didn't

Punters get better odds at this time of the year, after all that's why they punt.
I guess you're new to punting

This time last year I got $13 Collingwood to win the flag

 

[The Final Word]

I think this is just another example of why only mugs bet with TAB Sportsbet.

Betfair have Melbourne at $2.04 to make the 8, more than 50% more value for the exact same risk.

Full market:
Coll - $1.08 (better than bank interest I guess)
StK - $1.27
Gee - $1.29
WB - $1.26
Haw - $1.28
Fre - $1.69
Car - $1.67
Ade - $1.97
Mel - $2.04
Syd - $2.08
NM - $3.10
Ess - $3.55
Port - $4.60
Rich - $4.50
Bris - $7.40
GC - $7.80
WC - $10.50

It's a thin market at the moment and you'll have to accept lower odds than the above for betting more than $50 or $100 on some of those.

 

[jimmyclean]

Wrong Forum?

I don't think Melbourne is value at all at 1.65, I think we're still only a chance to make the eight.

I wouldn't touch this market until start of NAB cup at the earliest.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Joisus, I'll put $100 on Port @ $5... I like flying under the radar.

 

[Clash Hendrix]

TAB take a big slice out of their odds, especially at this time of the year.

As far their Top 8 odds at the moment, they are taking roughly 9% out of those odds. In terms of that market, about $1.83 is 'even money'.

In other words, none of those TAB odds are good value.

If the market were 100% those TAB odds would convert to roughly:

Adelaide 1.92
Brisbane 4.95
Carlton 1.81
Collingwood 1.15
Essendon 3.85
Fremantle 1.65
Geelong 1.48
Hawthorn 1.37
North Melbourne 3.30
Melbourne 1.81
Port Adelaide 5.49
Richmond 3.02
StKilda 1.37
Sydney 2.09
West Coast 5.49
WBulldogs 1.43
Gold Coast 7.14

 

[Slattery_20]

Under $2, or anywhere near equal odds with Freo would be utterly, utterly ridiculous.
They've won about 16 games under Bailey in 3 years!!!

Hawthorn shorter than Cats???? Wha???

I'd take Port at $5, I'd look at Essendon if they got that far out too, but not for under $4.
IMHO should be very, very evenly matched.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

How can the Swans be so long? Home ground advantage, easy draw and they have Goodes and the Umps playing for them !!

 

[Quixote]

Got to win games first. This entails winning the football first. And also, having a forward or two to kick goals I'd suggest.

$1.65 to even money? What a joke



I have a feeling Dees and North fans should prepare for some hard lessons in 2011. Richmond will do better than both of you. And that's L O L

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Who'd have guessed that the first reply in a Melbourne thread would be by a North Melbourne supporter?

Thanks for your imput here, has plenty to do with what this thread is about

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Got to win games first. This entails winning the football first. And also, having a forward or two to kick goals I'd suggest.

$1.65 to even money? What a joke



I have a feeling Dees and North fans should prepare for some hard lessons in 2011. Richmond will do better than both of you. And that's L O L

Care to tell us why? North and Melbourne both accounted for Richmond easily last year

 

[Spluff]

Port's odds are out way too far.

 

[peppy la pew]

Under $2, or anywhere near equal odds with Freo would be utterly, utterly ridiculous.
They've won about 16 games under Bailey in 3 years!!!

Hawthorn shorter than Cats???? Wha???

I'd take Port at $5, I'd look at Essendon if they got that far out too, but not for under $4.
IMHO should be very, very evenly matched.

Last time i checked Harves was at Freo .

 

[ok.crows]

I think this is just another example of why only mugs bet with TAB Sportsbet.

Betfair have Melbourne at $2.04 to make the 8, more than 50% more value for the exact same risk.

Someone else said TAB Sportsbet had Melbourne at over $2 to miss the eight.

If the is correct, you put money with Betfair on Melbourne to make the 8, and you put the same amount with TAB Sportsbet on Melbourne to miss the 8, and you can't lose!!!!

 

[Quixote]

Care to tell us why? North and Melbourne both accounted for Richmond easily last year

IMO - midfielders with the ticker to win the football.

And a forward line with goal kickers.

The basics.

 

[jonoman89]

LOL at Carlton believing they will finish higher than Melbourne in 2011.

Carlton are top 8 pushing top 4 now. Melbourne are bottom 8 pushing top 8.

Carlton or Freo for top 4 would be offering good odds i imagine.

 

[Andy_Mac]

IMO - midfielders with the ticker to win the football.

And a forward line with goal kickers.

The basics.

Um pretty sure Brad Green kicked more goals than any St Kilda player (excluding the finals), and North if nothing else have more than enough inside mids.

Do you even watch footy?

OT, I say $1.65 is way to sort. Soft draw aside we have been terrible for the best part of 4 years and whilst we showed signs of improvment i think its to early to be suggesting we're odds on to make the 8.

 

[Hannabal]

$1.65 to even money? What a joke



I have a feeling Dees and North fans should prepare for some hard lessons in 2011. Richmond will do better than both of you. And that's L O L

If you're interested send me a pm and we'll have a nice wager.

 

[captain peanut]

]I think this is just another example of why only mugs bet with TAB Sportsbet.[/B]

Betfair have Melbourne at $2.04 to make the 8, more than 50% more value for the exact same risk.

Full market:
Coll - $1.08 (better than bank interest I guess)
StK - $1.27
Gee - $1.29
WB - $1.26
Haw - $1.28
Fre - $1.69
Car - $1.67
Ade - $1.97
Mel - $2.04
Syd - $2.08
NM - $3.10
Ess - $3.55
Port - $4.60
Rich - $4.50
Bris - $7.40
GC - $7.80
WC - $10.50

It's a thin market at the moment and you'll have to accept lower odds than the above for betting more than $50 or $100 on some of those.

tab sportsbet are a joke as a bookmaker. they consistently have the worst odds of any of the corporate bookies, let alone betfair who are the best option to bet with by a mile

geel and stk are great value to make the 8. i am pretty sure geel won 17 games in 2010 and the saints 15 and made a GF? while i think they are both a good chance to slip from the top 4 they will both be making the 8

 

[Slattery_20]

If you were going online you wouldn't go TAB. Their selling point is convenience.

Does any of the on-line ones let you put a multi on making the 8?
Pretty sure betfair don't.

 

[Deep Blue]

I dont see a problem with the Dees Value. I reckon they are a certainty aswell.

Not sure about certainty - they lost a fair bit of experience and may inf fact fall back a place on the ladder: if they lose Brad Green and/or Davey they'll be in trouble. Absolutely everything would need to go to plan for Melbourne to make the eight.

 

[McCrann]

I think this is just another example of why only mugs bet with TAB Sportsbet.

Betfair have Melbourne at $2.04 to make the 8, more than 50% more value for the exact same risk.

Full market:
Coll - $1.08 (better than bank interest I guess)
StK - $1.27
Gee - $1.29
WB - $1.26
Haw - $1.28
Fre - $1.69
Car - $1.67
Ade - $1.97
Mel - $2.04
Syd - $2.08
NM - $3.10
Ess - $3.55
Port - $4.60
Rich - $4.50
Bris - $7.40
GC - $7.80
WC - $10.50

It's a thin market at the moment and you'll have to accept lower odds than the above for betting more than $50 or $100 on some of those.

Very strange statements to make. I don't personally bet with the TAB, but if I wanted to drop $25,000 on this sort of bet - is it really worth my while spending a lot of my time trying to match that on Betfair? Or should I save the trouble and just go to a corporate bookie?

Sure, the odds might be skinnier, but I can make the bet quicksmart. I would hardly call bets of that size the bets of a "mug punter" either. But in how many markets do Betfair cater to this size of bet?