Prediction Michael Barlow

[Niximus]

Nah not really. Pick 89 has no points value, so it cannot be involved with father-son points anyway.

If Jarman hadn't been taken, and we didn't use that on him hoping to grab him with 89, but Port selects him with 85, also worth 0 points, would we be able to match then with 89?

It would make sense that we could.

Even if Essendon bid 68 (59 points) the flat rate discount should make the points required to match 0.

 

[DD#23]

He's not being recruited for depth. If that's the case he'll go somewhere else. If we get him it's to play him.

Thommo is not depth. We kept him on because we haven't had him out of the centre square for 11 years and are scared to try.

every rare time he's forced to sit out the last two years I think we've looked great, but that's without checking the contested possession differential

 

[Elite Crow]

If we even have thoughts of not playing Thommo, if we lose a couple of early games he will be back in quick smart.

 

[relapse]

If Jarman hadn't been taken, and we didn't use that on him hoping to grab him with 89, but Port selects him with 85, also worth 0 points, would we be able to match then with 89?

It would make sense that we could.

Even if Essendon bid 68 (59 points) the flat rate discount should make the points required to match 0.

Yeah once the points are less than 197 you can match with your next pick even if it has zero points attached to it.

 

[WetCrow1991]

I would be absolutely gobsmacked if Mackay and Douglas weren't in our round 1 side

I have zero faith in this club to make the right decisions at the right time, we're already well past the right time for these kind of selection decisions.

 

[gothecrows]

Yeah once the points are less than 197 you can match with your next pick even if it has zero points attached to it.

Actually, once the points required are 0, you can match with your last pick, regardless of if you have any other picks before it.

Edit: - From here: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

"the listing of F/S players and local Academy graduates is facilitated in later rounds because the discount rises steadily from 20% in Round 1 to 100% at pick 56 (if a player is bid from this point, a Nominating Club need only use their last pick in the draft to list the player)."

 

[Realslimshady2]

Nah not really. Pick 89 has no points value, so it cannot be involved with father-son points anyway.

hence Hawks cant draft him even if they wanted to

 

[Niximus]

Actually, once the points required are 0, you can match with your last pick, regardless of if you have any other picks before it.

So that means any bid from 56 onwards can be matched with our last pick.

 

[gothecrows]

So that means any bid from 56 onwards can be matched with our last pick.

Correct - added link to above post with the relevant quote.

 

[fabs33]

CEY not playing was more about CEY than Campo, Yes its easy to blame Campo, but it would be wrong.
If you can attend some training sessions, All of the players always preform to the required plan, they all work hard.
You get some that are are happy to follow the leader, some who want to compete, some who want to fight to be that leader,
(This is midfield orientated), If you went this year you would see at time the Crouch brother go hard and do the extra, you even hear of them doing extra. Thommo the same, MacKay, Douglas, Lyons, CC. Of the players not in the team, the Hardest workers were (when Fit) , Wigg, Gore, Milera, Knights, Grigg even Menzel busted a nut and did extra, Brad Crouch when dropped went ballistic and work even harder, Some work hard but others did not, It the lack of 1% on the training track that slow some players down, put them behind at the start of the year.
I believe the penny dropped for a couple of them we will see in 2017.

Was Phil Walsh not attending our training sessions?

 

[Vader]

I would be absolutely gobsmacked if Mackay and Douglas weren't in our round 1 side

So would I. However, I would not be surprised if Thompson starts in the SANFL.

 

[Danoz]

hence Hawks cant draft him even if they wanted to

Correct. Unless we use all our picks before they nominate him and then we have no picks to use on him. We could be hoping he slides to the rookie draft. Or we could be just planning to take him with our lowest active pick regardless of whether he's nominated.

E.g. 107 is made redundant by picking up Barlow. 89 is set to upgrade O'Brien. We use 13, 43, 53 in the draft prior to Jarman being nominated. 67 will either be used on Jars or someone else if we think he could slip through to the rookie draft. If we don't get Barlow, I think it's a given we get Jars in the ND.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Surely if we intend to get Barlow, it means Thommo will be in the SANFL next year, hence the experienced replacement?

 

[adelaidecrows]

Ah ok, so yes I agree. Barlow plays and Milera/Menzel don't.

I think this is a negative, makes us even slower and we will be worse off short term and long term.

I'm sure our contested ball and raw clearance numbers will be ok.

So Menzel and Milera wont force someone else out? I think Douglas, Mackay and Thompson will all find their positions are heavily under pressure.

 

[headache1]

Correct. Unless we use all our picks before they nominate him and then we have no picks to use on him. We could be hoping he slides to the rookie draft. Or we could be just planning to take him with our lowest active pick regardless of whether he's nominated.

E.g. 107 is made redundant by picking up Barlow. 89 is set to upgrade O'Brien. We use 13, 43, 53 in the draft prior to Jarman being nominated. 67 will either be used on Jars or someone else if we think he could slip through to the rookie draft. If we don't get Barlow, I think it's a given we get Jars in the ND.

Apparently you don't need to use a pick to upgrade a rookie anymore. If you go and have a look at the draft last year, there is not one player in the draft that has rookie upgrade next to their name. O'Brien is on the senior list as of last Monday.

 

[DD#23]

So Menzel and Milera wont force someone else out? I think Douglas, Mackay and Thompson will all find their positions are heavily under pressure.

they were under heavy pressure this year and it didn't make any difference.

anyone who wants to believe the SANFL guys just weren't putting their hands up weren't watching, and while I'm not saying that the next McLeod or Ricciuto is languishing in the reserves we damn well have some solid players who could at least contribute EDIT: in the short term and end up who knows where with an opportunity.

surely we could have given Wigg a sniff against Essendon or Brisbane at least. Surely. We just keep putting up glass ceilings instead.

 

[Niximus]

Apparently you don't need to use a pick to upgrade a rookie anymore. If you go and have a look at the draft last year, there is not one player in the draft that has rookie upgrade next to their name. O'Brien is on the senior list as of last Monday.

You don't use a pick, but you only have as many picks as list vacancies so promoting a rookie makes your last pick vanish anyway.

The result is still the same, it just isn't listed in the draft .

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

So Menzel and Milera wont force someone else out? I think Douglas, Mackay and Thompson will all find their positions are heavily under pressure.

Yeah, ok but it's a massive stretch

All three of those guys were chosen for practically every single week last season and all the seasons before that

But THIS time it will be different. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[1970crow]

no disrepect .....but gee this constant line is giving me the sh....s ......don't think we could have got Rockliff this year if we wanted him ? ...........we clearly do not want Rockliff, and at what point does this point f......g sink in to people !!!!!!

Rockliff is 1 year from being an RFA. There were no reports on what BNE wanted for him outside of a Carlton poster who said he was offerred to them for a 2nd rounder and they turned it down. You'd think BNE will be getting at worst pick 4-6 next year and salary cap wouldn't be an issue for them, so dumping him this year for a 2nd sounds like bullshit to me.

 

[headache1]

You don't use a pick, but you only have as many picks as list vacancies so promoting a rookie makes your last pick vanish anyway.

The result is still the same, it just isn't listed in the draft .

How many list spots do we actually have now that O'Brien has been upgraded?

 

[Scorpus]

How many list spots do we actually have now that O'Brien has been upgraded?

5. Corresponds to Picks 13, 43, 53, 67 and 89

 

[adelaidecrows]

Yeah, ok but it's a massive stretch

All three of those guys were chosen for practically every single week last season and all the seasons before that

But THIS time it will be different. I'll believe it when I see it.

I am with you. But pyke has no choice but change. More of the same wont cut it.

 

[SydCrow]

do we have to use all of our picks? If so, we are saying that pick 67 will be better than Grigg?

 

[fabs33]

Yeah, ok but it's a massive stretch

All three of those guys were chosen for practically every single week last season and all the seasons before that

But THIS time it will be different. I'll believe it when I see it.

I think it's the reality of our club that we play our senior players until they're absolutely cooked, and I'm not just saying a few minutes on both sides, I'm talking burnt to a crisp. Sometimes we even throw them back on the grill for old times' sake like we did with VB mid season. With Thompson I think he'll only a get a token game unless we have a long list of injuries.

As for Douglas and Mackay, I fully expect to see them lining up for round 1. Why? Because they have tenure!

 

[Pugsley]

I am with you. But pyke has no choice but change. More of the same wont cut it.

I think he learned a lot from last year. Watched the playing list and line coaches.

If he feels the need to overrule, I believe we will see a more assertive Don this year.