Autopsy Misfiring Dogs choke a top 4 spot v Gold Coast

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Do you have any data around expected scores? I do feel like JUH marks a lot of footy around the 50m line on toughish angles.

Sadly I haven't got anything from CD except for team expected scores but Liam Crow has an expected score model online where you can see the expected score for each individual shot, it's pretty close to the CD model although things like left/right foot, pressure on kick are missing.

 

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4 of his 5 came from direct turnovers from Dale, L. Jones, O'Brien and Richards, he was matched up on these players during the match...

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13 mins was more than enough time for JOD to be on him. Could have got uglier...if that's possible. Jones wasn't a good match for him. Gardner played him best it seems.
 
Quick question on 1 v 1 contest losses

Do free kicks count as losing? Surely when Jones got king over the shoulder/chopping the arms counts as a loss

Yes, free kicks do count as losing but that incident would not be classified as a one-on-one contest as Jones had no chance of actually taking the mark. A one-on-one contest is defined as...

A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.
 
13 mins was more than enough time for JOD to be on him. Could have got uglier...if that's possible. Jones wasn't a good match for him. Gardner played him best it seems.
Have to disagree NW.

Ryan Gardner was directly opposed to Lukosius when he kicked 3 of his 5 goals. He was also his direct opponent when Lukosius set up another couple for team mates.

O'Brien and JO'D were his direct opponents when he scored the other 2, 1 each.
 
Have to disagree NW.

Ryan Gardner was directly opposed to Lukosius when he kicked 3 of his 5 goals. He was also his direct opponent when Lukosius set up another couple for team mates.

O'Brien and JO'D were his direct opponents when he scored the other 2, 1 each.

Mate give it a rest, you have posted 28 times in May on BF and 26 of those posts have directly been about Gardner. We get it, you don't like him and think he should be out of the team you don't have to keep going on about it, but to actually blame him for 3 of Lukosius' goals when there are multiple posts on here that explain in great detail where those goals were sourced and then lost by us is just embarrassing by you. Of all the posts during and after the match last night only you are the only one blaming Gardner, maybe it's time you focus on some other players like Naughton, O'Brien and B. Smith.
 
Our backline apart from Jones were horrible last night what makes me more sick is our VFL side with Keath, Crozier, Bruce & Busslinger had 22 goals kicked on them so it's not like any defenders are banging down the door to replace anyone :huh:
 
Everyone says Bevo is coaching well but how do you explain?

The failure to adapt the game plan to greasy conditions. We played a high possession slow build up game. Suns played territory and backed the speed of the their forwards.

Picking a slow large backline against a very quick Suns forward line.

The failure to stop the Suns forwards getting out the back. Goal after goal came from easy plays with our defenders struggling to run back.

The failure to do anything about Rowell in the secon$ half. None of the other Suns mids did much at all.

The failure to tell Naughton not to get continually out marked by Ballard. Needed the ball on the ground.

It was a reversion to ultra attacking mindset of rounds 1 and 2. Surely they would have learnt something.
 
Everyone says Bevo is coaching well but how do you explain?

The failure to adapt the game plan to greasy conditions. We played a high possession slow build up game. Suns played territory and backed the speed of the their forwards.

Picking a slow large backline against a very quick Suns forward line.

The failure to stop the Suns forwards getting out the back. Goal after goal came from easy plays with our defenders struggling to run back.

The failure to do anything about Rowell in the secon$ half. None of the other Suns mids did much at all.

The failure to tell Naughton not to get continually out marked by Ballard. Needed the ball on the ground.

It was a reversion to ultra attacking mindset of rounds 1 and 2. Surely they would have learnt something.

Jamarra and Naughton kick those 4 easy shots we win it's that simple

Bad kicking is bad footy we didnt lose it at the selection table
 

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Jamarra and Naughton kick those 4 easy shots we win it's that simple

Bad kicking is bad footy we didnt lose it at the selection table
Last week we kept the most attacking team in football to 5 goals. Week before that we kept Carlton to one goal in the first half.
How do you explain the difference in defensive performance?
 
And one that came off the side of his boot and went out of bounds

Still played a good game and was our better Forward by a mile
You're both in agreeance here. Nothing to see.

He was really good. He'll get his kicking boots back at some point. The rest of his game is coming together beautifully.
 
Last week we kept the most attacking team in football to 5 goals. Week before that we kept Carlton to one goal in the first half.
How do you explain the difference in defensive performance?

Our backline had a bad day it's that simple we handed them 4 goals from direct turnovers as i said bad kicking is bad football.. GC were the cleaner side in the conditions and thats why they won the game
 
Our backline had a bad day it's that simple we handed them 4 goals from direct turnovers as i said bad kicking is bad football.. GC were the cleaner side in the conditions and thats why they won the game
All fair points. Watching the game, it seemed the Suns played a much simpler game plan to us. I just felt we needed to adapt. Picking the wrong team for the conditions made it worse.
 
Our backline had a bad day it's that simple we handed them 4 goals from direct turnovers as i said bad kicking is bad football.. GC were the cleaner side in the conditions and thats why they won the game
They just looked cleaner all game. Less fumbles and second grabs. Perhaps they're more accustomed to the conditions and they maximised that advantage. Good on them.

In their history, I think this is a very important win for them. From past games and Stewie's pressers, he very clearly rates our midfield and contested game. It was almost their Everest to counter it and win. The fact that they were able to match us and prevail will be some cause for celebration in their ranks. I don't begrudge them as handy as a win would have been for us.
 
Can’t criticise JUH for his game last night, one of the shining lights on the forward line. Astro coughs up 2 gimmies in front of goal and the first quarter misses came back to haunt.

One glaring problem is Weightman, a witch hat for 3 quarters then starts staging in the last quarter. I’m over Weightman’s BS
You know a player is as out of form as Weightman currently is when his first instinct going into a contest is to position himself to draw a free kick.

In a night that should've favoured them. We got nothing out of our small forwards.

However, that may've been because Naughton didn't get the hint when he was watching Ballard mark almost everything that came his way. He would've been better served playing a more defensive role by getting the ball to ground. Then Weightman could've staged for a free, won us the game and all would've been forgiven.
 
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With a days hindsight you don’t ever wanna lose a game but id rather it happen in shitty conditions in round 10 than on the G against a top side come finals. I honestly think that was just a one off, you all have seen way more bulldogs football than me as a 19 year old but I honestly think that with a reset and a home game next week against a well under manned Geelong we will be back in the winners list in no time 🔴⚪🔵
 
Mate give it a rest, you have posted 28 times in May on BF and 26 of those posts have directly been about Gardner. We get it, you don't like him and think he should be out of the team you don't have to keep going on about it, but to actually blame him for 3 of Lukosius' goals when there are multiple posts on here that explain in great detail where those goals were sourced and then lost by us is just embarrassing by you. Of all the posts during and after the match last night only you are the only one blaming Gardner, maybe it's time you focus on some other players like Naughton, O'Brien and B. Smith.

It's a footy forum and I can post about whatever I choose.

Perhaps you should stop going to such ridiculous lengths to try to absolve your preferred players from any responsibility\criticism, and\or post cherry picked stats to try to make their performances look better than they really are.

For example, me pointing out that Ryan was Lukosius's direct opponent for 3 of his goals, is a true statement.
You have presented a graphical representation of where the turnovers which lead to 4 of Lukosius goals occurred, none of which were in our defensive 50, and two of which were around our half forward flank, and somehow suggest that this explains why Gardner isn't at fault? Not sure why, the ball always comes from somewhere and particularly if the turnover in possession comes from well forward of centre then a defender has a fair amount of time to react.

It's not a matter of me not liking Gardner, he seems like a nice enough bloke. I am however concerned with his continual preferential selection treatment in comparison to other better performed players. It hurts the team, and as I have suggested previously it may have also hampered Ryan's development as a player, perhaps irreparably at this stage.
 
I’m not sure whether to feel relieved that dropping an eminently winnable wasn’t punished by others around us, or to feel frustrated at such a missed opportunity when those around us lost to make decent ground in the race for top four.

Probably need 17-6 for top four, or maybe 16-7 and a decent percentage. We have a pretty benign run home all things considered, but only 2-3 losses in 12 games feels a little out of reach tbh.

Dropping that game means that 2-0 in the next fortnight is pretty important, 1-1 at worst.
 

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