Recommitted Mitch Duncan

[raffrox]

So effectively Freo Lose

Neale & Cerra, 5, 22

Duncan & Kelly & pick 11

_________________________________________

So any other Geelong supporters want to have a crack at me for saying that you just might be over valuing your players?

 

[go_the_dockers]

So any other Geelong supporters want to have a crack at me for saying that you just might be over valuing your players?

Add Brayshaw to make it fair

 

[Moist Biscuit]

This trade will not happen but in the hypothetical situation brisbane gives fremantle pick 4 for lachie neale plus 22.

Fremantle Hold

4
5.
22.

Geelong trades Mitch Duncan, Tim Kelly & Pick 11

For

Adam Cerra, Pick 5, Pick 22

Would be a huge risk though because you would preferably want to land Max King. Or Ben King.

Then pick 22 may be a match for Bailey Scott if he nominated geelong.

I'm not an expert with the points but I assume we also want brownless ( F/S) and also Mensch ( F/ S ) so depending on the outlook of our other trades we would need to work that scenario.

So effectively Freo Lose

Neale & Cerra, 5, 22

Duncan & Kelly & pick 11

_________________________________________

Geelong add

Cerra -
Pick 5 which your just hoping you land max king huge risk. With Goldcoast compensation yet to be announced for Lynch it may push the picks all back.

With Live trading coming in though I find this option interesting because if Max King is on the board at freos pick and they don't want him or perhaps someone slips. All of a sudden you can make moves with players actually available to draft.

As I said I probably don't make anyone happy with this trade geelong faithful will feel undervalued and freo possibly as well.

And I doubt this trade is possible but I would definately entertain moves like this Neale and Kelly both sound on the move. Looks like a duck sounds like a duck it's usually a duck.

So this kind of move keeps everybody ticking fremantle get quality players with upside geelong get youth. And freo don't have the worry of retention issues down the road with cerra

That's the worst trade I've ever seen. Shame on you.

 

[WilloTree]

So any other Geelong supporters want to have a crack at me for saying that you just might be over valuing your players?

You might be looking at this wrong.

Neale and Duncan are both A graders, so it's really:
Freo Pick 5 - 2017 (Cerra)
Freo Pick 5 - 2018
Freo 11 pick upgrade

for

Kelly


nope - I was wrong. You were looking at it correctly. Has anyone ever been traded for 2 pick in the top 5?

 

[Danger!Selwood]

You might be looking at this wrong.

Neale and Duncan are both A graders, so it's really:
Freo Pick 5 - 2017 (Cerra)
Freo Pick 5 - 2018
Freo 11 pick upgrade

for

Kelly


nope - I was wrong. You were looking at it correctly. Has anyone ever been traded for 2 pick in the top 5?

It won't happen regardless but I don't think that's as far fetched as you're making out?

You'll effectively get pick 4 for Neale, which you keep.

Tim Kelly (few years older, but wants to be and stay in WA.) for Cerra

Mitch Duncan for a 6 spot drop from pick 5 to pick 11.

Freo in- Pick 4, pick 11, Duncan and Kelly
Out- Neale, Cerra and pick 5.

 

[raffrox]

It won't happen regardless but I don't think that's as far fetched as you're making out?

You'll effectively get pick 4 for Neale, which you keep.

Tim Kelly (few years older, but wants to be and stay in WA.) for Cerra

Mitch Duncan for a 6 spot drop from pick 5 to pick 11.

Freo in- Pick 4, pick 11, Duncan and Kelly
Out- Neale, Cerra and pick 5.

That's not what was written. Also what about pick 22 that you'd apparently get as well?

Tim Kelly is the Tyreke Evans of the AFL.

Physically more mature than other first years, has an amazing first year, plateaus and gets worked out by the opposition, has a solid but unspectacular rest of his career.

 

[Danger!Selwood]

That's not what was written. Also what about pick 22 that you'd apparently get as well?

Tim Kelly is the Tyreke Evans of the AFL.

Physically more mature than other first years, has an amazing first year, plateaus and gets worked out by the opposition, has a solid but unspectacular rest of his career.

That's just your opinion, its not factual at all.

I can say that Cerra will be like Greg Oden, highly promising high draft pick who looks good early but is a bust by the time he's 25 due to injury. Doesn't make it true...

 

[raffrox]

That's just your opinion, its not factual at all.

I can say that Cerra will be like Greg Oden, highly promising high draft pick who looks good early but is a bust by the time he's 25 due to injury. Doesn't make it true...

Welcome to Big Footy. Actual facts would make up a pretty small proportion really but fair to say I'd feel more comfortable about my assumption than you would.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree that proposed trade is silly but why are we even discussing it Cerra re-signed and Duncan won't be traded.

 

[SnusCG]

Brisbane
GAIN: Lachie Neale
LOSE: Pick 4, 22

Geelong
GAIN: Pick 4, 22
LOSE: Mitch Duncan, pick 11

Fremantle
GAIN: Pick 11, Mitch Duncan
LOSE: Lachie Neale

If you care about 'points value' it values Duncan at pick 8

 

[Milanista28]

Brisbane
GAIN: Lachie Neale
LOSE: Pick 4, 22

Geelong
GAIN: Pick 4, 22
LOSE: Mitch Duncan, pick 11

Fremantle
GAIN: Pick 11, Mitch Duncan
LOSE: Lachie Neale

If you care about 'ponts value' it values Duncan at pick 8

Every club wins I think, Good deal.

If Freo could turn 5 and 11 into Max or Ben and Hill they'd be rapt.

 

[Danger!Selwood]

Welcome to Big Footy. Actual facts would make up a pretty small proportion really but fair to say I'd feel more comfortable about my assumption than you would.

Ultimately would you take this, yes or no.

Freo in- Pick 4, pick 11, Duncan and Kelly
Out- Neale, Cerra, pick 5 and pick 22 (assuming its involved, even though it was supposedly given to Brisbane with Neale)

Rating each player and what we know..

Neale: A- . apparently wants to go.
Duncan: A . Wa born, would he go?
Kelly: B . WA boy, would probably like to go home, possible A grader.
Cerra: B-/C+. VIC boy, no one knows what can happen, probable A grader.

Picks 5, 11 and 22- Will they be a Griffen Logue or a Nat Fyfe...?

 

[Ray Donovan]

That's not what was written. Also what about pick 22 that you'd apparently get as well?

Tim Kelly is the Tyreke Evans of the AFL.

Physically more mature than other first years, has an amazing first year, plateaus and gets worked out by the opposition, has a solid but unspectacular rest of his career.

Tyreke Evan's took a 1 year deal at the Pacers for 8 mil. The Grizzlies let him walk

 

[Ray Donovan]

So any other Geelong supporters want to have a crack at me for saying that you just might be over valuing your players?

I said in the post it wouldn't happen but if you want to speculate trades with all contracted players everyone wants to keep that's what you would ask for.

Cerra and Tim Kelly cancel each other out then you have Duncan and an 11 pick upgrade.

I agree probably a bad trade but you traded lachie Weller for pick 2 lol. You want lightning in a bottle every day cerra is a 2nd year player. You have no idea how he will turn out. The trade could be an absolute bust for geelong. Max king is dicey

But I suppose it depends what you think mitch duncans value is in a forced trade if it's over pick 15 what's the point of the deal.

Kelly was valued at a pick 10-15.

 

[Marty Whitelaw]

This thread is classic big footy trade talk. We all end up yelling at each other over a trade we all concede probably isn’t going to happen.

 

[Ray Donovan]

That's the worst trade I've ever seen. Shame on you.

Kelly for Cerra

Afl best first year player vs a rookie not really Stephenson from Collingwood we are talking about.

Duncan and pick swap

Your just turning 4 and 22 into

Duncan and 11

Its effectively just a pick swap. And that was just a theory it depends on father son points for geelong that was my point if a 3rd rounder worked that also would be the deal

Duncan and 11 for pick 4. And a 30odd

I did write at the top it's a bad trade but with all contracted players and everyone saying they are staying it's highly hypothetical.

I doubt anyone leaves but in a mitch Duncan thread I hypothesized a scenario that you would look at

 

[Scotland]

Just a rookie. Cerra was pick 5 in the draft last year.

 

[frggr]

Just a rookie. Cerra was pick 5 in the draft last year.

So there's a chance he hasn't been Lyon-ised yet?

 

[raffrox]

So there's a chance he hasn't been Lyon-ised yet?

The quality of trolls on Big Footy have really slipped over the years.

 

[raffrox]

Ultimately would you take this, yes or no.

Freo in- Pick 4, pick 11, Duncan and Kelly
Out- Neale, Cerra, pick 5 and pick 22 (assuming its involved, even though it was supposedly given to Brisbane with Neale)

Rating each player and what we know..

Neale: A- . apparently wants to go.
Duncan: A . Wa born, would he go?
Kelly: B . WA boy, would probably like to go home, possible A grader.
Cerra: B-/C+. VIC boy, no one knows what can happen, probable A grader.

Picks 5, 11 and 22- Will they be a Griffen Logue or a Nat Fyfe...?

In that form it's close but you'd need all those players to be saying they want out. Otherwise Cerra is kept full stop.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Ultimately would you take this, yes or no.

Freo in- Pick 4, pick 11, Duncan and Kelly
Out- Neale, Cerra, pick 5 and pick 22 (assuming its involved, even though it was supposedly given to Brisbane with Neale)

Rating each player and what we know..

Neale: A- . apparently wants to go.
Duncan: A . Wa born, would he go?
Kelly: B . WA boy, would probably like to go home, possible A grader.
Cerra: B-/C+. VIC boy, no one knows what can happen, probable A grader.

Picks 5, 11 and 22- Will they be a Griffen Logue or a Nat Fyfe...?

Duncan is not better than Neale LMFAO

 

[foodles05]

That's not what was written. Also what about pick 22 that you'd apparently get as well?

Tim Kelly is the Tyreke Evans of the AFL.

Physically more mature than other first years, has an amazing first year, plateaus and gets worked out by the opposition, has a solid but unspectacular rest of his career.

That is the stupidest comment ever. You don't measure him against the other first year players or even first year players in general. Just measure him against the league and he is already a top quality player.

 

[foodles05]

Duncan is not better than Neale LMFAO

He is better. Can do everything neale does but is faster and much more damaging by foot.

 

[Virgin Dog]

He is better. Can do everything neale does but is faster and much more damaging by foot.

Take the Geelong goggles off. Duncan is free to run without a tag because he plays alongside Danger and Selwood, while Neale basically carries the Freo side on his shoulders along with Fyfe.

Neale is 2 years younger, and averages more disposals, goals, tackles and clearances per game, while the two are similar in most other important stats. They are comparable, but no way is Duncan better or worth more than Neale. Only advantage for Duncan is his rebounding ability

 

[Ray Donovan]

Just a rookie. Cerra was pick 5 in the draft last year.

A very good rookie, just like Tim Kelly is just a mature age pickup. Exactly why west coast is deep into him lol..... wouldn't he be pretty handy in a premiership window with gaffy heading off.

Is there miles between them in output though as far as I can see. It's all potential about cerra most likely years off being a really influential player just did some special looking things. What do you offer up for a sam mcgluggage type. He still worth pick 3 now. Is andrew McGrath at essendon worth pick one.

The whole thing with the draft is it's new shiny and unknown once you have been drafted that's it.

If it was just a cerra to geelong scenario which it clearly isnt and won't be.

If both wanted trades to victoria and Perth would Kelly for cerra be a horrible trade for freo or geelong.

I cant answer that now very dependant on which supporter you ask. If I ask a geelong supporter you prob need to throw in a first rounder. If I ask a freo supporter Kelly is worth pick 35 and cerra is gods gift to rookies.

Cerra didn't pick up 1 vote in NAB rising star voting. Tim Kelly blitzed the best first year player by 170 odd votes.

Its in the eyes of the beholder.

It's just how good is the question mark. How good is Tim Kelly and how good will cerras progression be. Really hard to judge