Monday's leadership ballot - hopes and predictions

[fairdinkum]

Less than 48 hours now until the scheduled ballot. Still plenty of time for more skullduggery and drama to ensue, but it will be interesting to get peoples predictions right now.

The poll is for your predictions, but please also post about what you hope to see transpire and why.

Also note: Caucus has 103 total votes.

 

[Moo]

Gillard very easily.

I'd love to see Rudd win so that The Mad Monk actually didn't just get a walkover.

 

[Cthublhu]

Less than 48 hours now until the scheduled ballot. Still plenty of time for more skullduggery and drama to ensue, but it will be interesting to get peoples predictions right now.

The poll is for your predictions, but please also post about what you hope to see transpire and why.

What I think will happen: Gillard will win, but not by enough and Rudd will retire to the backbench to plot and scheme.

What I'd like to happen: either a) Rudd to win; or b) Gillard to absolutely smash Rudd so even he knows there's no point in trying again and he retires from parliament to force a by-election.

 

[fairdinkum]

Moo, can you please change the poll to make it public? That was my original intention. Otherwise I will just have to copy and paste and start a new one.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Voted Gillard by a concerning margin.

Want Rudd to win though.

 

[Caesar]

Moo, can you please change the poll to make it public? That was my original intention. Otherwise I will just have to copy and paste and start a new one.

Switching between public/private isn't one of the edit options, unfortunately.

If you want to start a new thread with a new poll, I'll merge it in and delete the anonymous one.

 

[Tulip]

Hopes: Rudd goes red in the face for a few more days, Gillard wins and he's so embarrassed that he's been shunned a second time he quits government. His electorate has had enough of his attitude and vote Lib.

Expectation: Gillard by a comfortable margin, Rudd takes a week off. Resigns, ALP get voted back in in his seat.

 

[fairdinkum]

Switching between public/private isn't one of the edit options, unfortunately.

If you want to start a new thread with a new poll, I'll merge it in and delete the anonymous one.

Alright, Ill do that now. Thanks heaps.

 

[tandino]

Gillard should win by a small margin.

 

[fairdinkum]

My 2c:

I don't think the powerbrokers will allow it to get to a perilous position. If, by the early hours of Monday morning, it looks like Rudd will get to 40 votes, they will pull the trigger and get Rudd installed. Save another few days/weeks of News Ltd/Grattan/Uhlmann asking 'when, when, when?'.

The question is whether they will allow it to get to concerning territory. Surely nobody believes that Rudd will just slink away. The party's hands are just as tied now as they were when they made him FA Minister. Hawker is calling for Gillard to not contest and while he may be simply talk his own candidate up, the reality is that if Rudd isn't killed on Monday then he will either come back soon or take the whole party down with him (unless this is all about taking down Gillard, but I think Rudd is more egotistical than that). He doesn't just want Gillard's blood, he wants power. The powerbrokers would know this and thus have two choices: install him now, or let him trash the joint. Couldn't blame them for going either way, really.

The safe bet is a Gillard win (Rudd 30-40 votes) but I hope this isn't how it pans out, because what transpires afterwards is so obvious as to be boring. I still reckon there is a slight chance of a Rudd win by no contest, but I just can't see Ministers like Roxon, Wong, Plibersek, Smith, Swan etc allowing that to happen when they will know what that means for their personal careers. Rudd is putting himself before the party so who can blame them for doing likewise?

I hope its either a Gillard landslide or a Rudd by no contest. Anything else means the ALP slipping further into irrelevance midterm and that is not good for Australia imho.

 

[Inferno]

Bleh fail voted for the wrong option, meant to say that Rudd would get between 30-40. I think he'll get in the high 30's and that a few people are saying they'll vote for Gillard while intending to vote for Rudd.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Guessing Gillard comfortably hoping for a Rudd win so that Swan and Conroy are banished.

 

[jonoman89]

Gillard by under 10 votes.

 

[Pessimistic]

Apparently Karl S went toi a Rudd presser and said it told him NADA

"Theres 6 minutes youll never get back"


Surely the Rudd 'miracle' adds up to more than 3 percentage points ?

Bob Brown provides more - just form a coalition

 

[maelcoluim]

My prediction of a Gillard landslide is more out of hope than reality. I suspect Rudd will get between 35-45 votes in caucus which could set him up for another challenge in the near future.

The loss of Gillard, Swan, Roxon, Burke and others from a Rudd cabinet makes his leadership untenable regardless of what you think of his capabilities as PM.

 

[The Speaker]

I hope Rudd gets absolutely destroyed.

I'm guessing he won't.

 

[noddy]

Hope, Gillard to win by a large enough margin to reunite the party.

Expect, Gillard to win but not enough to make it certain.

Cringe in horror, Rudd to win.

edit, oops picked the wrong box.

 

[The_Reaper]

Hope for Rudd to win, especially given that Roxon will leave cabinet.

Expect Gillard to win by a concerning margin and fail to end speculation.

 

[themidlandmaster]

Rudd loses by a perilous margin to give Tone as big a margin as possible

 

[midorigreenwood]

is it really a secret vote?

folks in poll bludger seem to think that they write their vote down on a piece of paper and then hand it to their factional bosses....

trolling or reality?

ps: Rudd is going to get destroyed unfortunately.... Labor can get f.

 

[The_Reaper]

is it really a secret vote?

folks in poll bludger seem to think that they write their vote down on a piece of paper and then hand it to their factional bosses....

trolling or reality?

ps: Rudd is going to get destroyed unfortunately.... Labor can get f.

I've heard the same thing.

Honestly that isn't going to end any leadership speculation.

 

[The Speaker]

is it really a secret vote?

folks in poll bludger seem to think that they write their vote down on a piece of paper and then hand it to their factional bosses....

trolling or reality?

ps: Rudd is going to get destroyed unfortunately.... Labor can get f.

As an aside, are the majority of poll bludger commenters still Labor rusted-ons who think that the Liberals are the worst thing to have happened in Australian history?

 

[MisterMarcus]

is it really a secret vote?

folks in poll bludger seem to think that they write their vote down on a piece of paper and then hand it to their factional bosses....

trolling or reality?

ps: Rudd is going to get destroyed unfortunately.... Labor can get f.

If you ask the folks at pollbludger, whatever happens on Monday will be fantastic news for Labor and disastrous for Tony Abbott.

 

[The Speaker]

If you ask the folks at pollbludger, whatever happens on Monday will be fantastic news for Labor and disastrous for Tony Abbott.

I'll take that as a yes.

 

[E Shed]

Does anyone really give a **** at this point?
It's a Circus.