Most Embarassing Drought Going into 2025 - Premiership (St Kilda, 1966), Finals Win (Essendon, 2004) or Finals Appearance (Gold Coast, Never)?

[Makeshft_Mauler]

It has to be essendon because they are a big 4 club with all the resources that provides and the expectation from their fans.

this has not been helped when you compare them to the other big 4 clubs who have all turned around their fortunes especially richmond and carlton who were even worse than essendon have been but have now turned it around to either flags or deep finals runs in recent years.

 

[Peters_Nuts]

For a long time we generally had the top 4 teams win through to the Preliminary Final, meaning 6 different teams won finals.

We also only had 16 teams for the first 9 years of their drought, meaning it would have been very close to 10/16 (not winning a final) in those seasons.

In recent years, we have had a number of Elimination Finalists win through to the Preliminary Final, and even the Grand Final, so we're now seeing on average 5 different teams winning at least one final out of the 18 teams.

Balancing it out over the two decades, your original ratio of 6 in 18 teams winning a final is reasonable (originally 6 in 16 and more recently 5 in 18).

With Essendon being one of the teams NOT to win a final, they're in the 12/18 group.

1/((12/18)^20) = 3325

So a 1 in 3325 chance of a SPECIFIC team to not win a final in a SPECIFIC 20 year period, assuming all teams start at the same base.

Thread should've ended here. Pretty impressive for a "Big 4" club.

 

[Freomaniac]

Because it's about embarrassing draughts...

Well if you wanna ask which WA side has had the most embarrassing "draught" I say it's the club that won only 5 games in total in 2022 and 2023

 

[Freomaniac]

Correct. In contrast to Carlton supporters, you'll find that most Saints and Freo supporters are good people. We appreciate that there are aspects of supporting your team that matter just as much as winning.

I can't believe I am saying this. But I agree.

Port Adelaide fans have this uncontrollable Hatred of Ken Hinkley despite 4 preliminary finals and 6 finals wins in 12 seasons.

Hell I could tolerate my team winning 4 or 5 Elim finals over 30 seasons. Provided my side makes finals at least 10 times in 30 seasons.

 

[Thrawn]

'Technically'?

You'll be able to show an end of season ladder with Carlton in 3rd place?

Yes, technically. They finished in the prelims, or don't final positions matter anymore?

By your logic Port was the top team in 2002 because they finished 1st... In the h&a season. Doesn't matter if they don't bring home the flag. It is the same as calling a team a top four side when they lose in straight sets. They're not a top four side if they can't make the final four. It's an objective fact.

The only thing that matters is the finals.

 

[PhatBoy]

Billy, I think Geelong losing so many finals since Chris Scott has joined has been very embarrassing for Geelong.

Just lucky we’ve won 14 to at least offer a little bit of balance.

 

[DidakDelight]

Carlton’s [emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]] years and counting has gotta be up there..

 

[Pistol Night]

Yes, technically. They finished in the prelims, or don't final positions matter anymore?

By your logic Port was the top team in 2002 because they finished 1st... In the h&a season. Doesn't matter if they don't bring home the flag. It is the same as calling a team a top four side when they lose in straight sets. They're not a top four side if they can't make the final four. It's an objective fact.

The only thing that matters is the finals.

Yeah were aware of this. We finished 1st and 1st at the end of the H&A and finals that year

 

[76woodenspooners]

For a long time we generally had the top 4 teams win through to the Preliminary Final, meaning 6 different teams won finals.

We also only had 16 teams for the first 9 years of their drought, meaning it would have been very close to 10/16 (not winning a final) in those seasons.

In recent years, we have had a number of Elimination Finalists win through to the Preliminary Final, and even the Grand Final, so we're now seeing on average 5 different teams winning at least one final out of the 18 teams.

Balancing it out over the two decades, your original ratio of 6 in 18 teams winning a final is reasonable (originally 6 in 16 and more recently 5 in 18).

With Essendon being one of the teams NOT to win a final, they're in the 12/18 group.

1/((12/18)^20) = 3325

So a 1 in 3325 chance of a SPECIFIC team to not win a final in a SPECIFIC 20 year period, assuming all teams start at the same base.

Normally I agree with you Fadge, but I think you’ve clearly lost the plot here.

Why?

Any achievement needs to be measured against expectations.

Has Gold Coast made finals? No. Has anybody expected them to make finals? No.

When did St Kilda last win a Premiership? 1966. Has anybody expected them to win a Premiership since then? Apart from a brief period around 2009 / 2010 when they weren’t shithouse, No.

Essendon. Yeah, they’re a big 4, but let’s not forget that it was only a little more than a decade ago when they were the biggest scandal to ever darken the game. They were sanctioned to a point that would have scuttled any club but a big four. Did anybody expect them to do well? Of course not, that was the point.

So if it’s not those three, which team is it then?!?

The tread title specifically refers to not just any drought, but “embarrassing drought”.

Which club proclaims to be going after a Premiership every single friggen year, and yet has won five wooden spoons since 2000?

Which club sacks its coach on average every three years since rotary dial phones stopped being a thing?

Which club’s supporters most take the piss out of Essendon for not having won a final since 2004? Hint: it’s the club that has only won four finals since 2004.

There is one club that owns the term “embarrassing drought” outright, and it sure ain’t Suns, Bombers or Saints.

 

[craffles]

What about Sam Maclure coming up to 40 years of being a virgin soon

 

[Clark G]

GWS was a team of star talent that had never really struggled in their careers and didn't have a good enough coach.

Now they have finals heartbreak and if they can refresh their list and get a two or three more top 50 players they should be constantly challenging finals.

If their home stadium wasn't in such a terrible spot they would probably have fans too.

Where do you think the stadium for GWS should be located?

 

[Mr Meow]

Where do you think the stadium for GWS should be located?

Melbourne. Crowds would be great.

 

[Freomaniac]

Where do you think the stadium for GWS should be located?

Blacktown is fine.

But I wonder an Aussie rules ground near Parramatta train station would of been good?

 

[DaicosDisciple35]

Where do you think the stadium for GWS should be located?

Actually in western Sydney would make sense.

 

[Harvey to Hayes]

St. Kilda are clear winners in this area.

One premiership for their entire history which they secured by the smallest possible margin courtesy of a Barry Breen point thanks to a shite handball from Collingwood player Ted Potter.

The photos of their premiership captain Doc Baldock holding the cup has him wearing a Pies jumper.

The next closest they got to saluting was a draw in the 2010 GF but they got totally pantsed in the replay the week after.

When you add in some off-field scandals (dwarves, schoolgirls etc), they clearly are an embarrassment all round.

Says a Carlton fan whose club is slowly climbing out of decades of mediocrity after being caught flagrantly cheating the salary cap (dobbed in by their own player no less), and who are racking up spoons at a rate of knots, lol...

 

[2Knights]

Agree

Given 40% of teams each year make the finals and of those half win a final each year, the mathematical odds of not doing that in 20 years is staggering

At least four teams win a final, at most 6 do.

The odds of each scenario are staggering. For example, the Suns. Probability of a team missing the finals for all 14 years of their existence = (10/18) to the 14th power, or 0.0003 (rounded up). Assuming of course that all teams are equally strong.

 

[Cyclops]

Yes, technically. They finished in the prelims, or don't final positions matter anymore?

By your logic Port was the top team in 2002 because they finished 1st... In the h&a season. Doesn't matter if they don't bring home the flag. It is the same as calling a team a top four side when they lose in straight sets. They're not a top four side if they can't make the final four. It's an objective fact.

The only thing that matters is the finals.

I take the point but it's easy to have a bad fortnight, and very hard to have a great season.

I feel the 2018 Tigers were the strongest Dimma line-up, but some diarrhoea scotched the dream and we got a 2v4 GF (and you could make the case WCE were more like 4th and we were 5th in terms of quality).

Not common but it happens.

Dan26 took it too far in 1999 with his McLellamd rant, but it was based on a fair notion. Doesn't diminish Carlton's PF win to say they got up and knocked off a far better side, it's still glorious.

 

[Worm4]

And yet, if we manage to jag one before the Blues, you guys then have the longest premiership drought.

Now THAT would be embarrassing.

That's a bloody big IF

 

[Pistol Night]

That's a bloody big IF

Maybe. They have played in 3 GFs since you blokes have made one though

 

[Worm4]

Maybe. They have played in 3 GFs since you blokes have made one though

True, but generally when we get there, we win them. Just gotta work out how to get there...

 

[Mr Meow]

True, but generally when we get there, we win them. Just gotta work out how to get there...

Being one of the best two teams generally works.

 

[MCG-Unit]

Esso's drought

 

[Clark G]

Blacktown is fine.

But I wonder an Aussie rules ground near Parramatta train station would of been good?

The Giants originally were based in Blacktown before moving.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/west/former-blacktown-mayor-alan-pendleton-claims-gws-giants-are-hardly-western-sydney/news-story/4464698b4755975034e7627d23631fe4

 

[Freomaniac]

Says a Carlton fan whose club is slowly climbing out of decades of mediocrity after being caught flagrantly cheating the salary cap (dobbed in by their own player no less), and who are racking up spoons at a rate of knots, lol...

Ironic that the player that dobbed Carlton in that salary cap scandal was a former dockers player too.

What made Carlton's 2002 situation worse was they had very few decent players aged 23 or under at the time.

Hard to rebuild being denied your 1st and 2nd rounders for 3 years in a row unless you nail those late picks.

Yet crows in 2012 had a similar situation. Only difference was they had young talent in Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane , Patrick Dangerfield and Daniel Talia coming though.

Crows made a grand final in 2017.

 

[Freomaniac]

Because it's about embarrassing droughts...

Which one? Since Essendons last finals win in 2004, dockers have won 7 finals. 4 of the dockers coaches since 2005 have at least guided the dockers to at least 1 finals win. Yep and that includes dud coaches in Mark Harvey (2010) and Justin Longmuir (2022).