Opinion Non-Crows AFL 13: Offseason

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Nah, I think it was 1800 per eye after medicare. If anyone has to go down that path, it doesn't hurt at all and 10 minutes later, perfect vision, worth every cent

Did your batting average jump appreciably?

 

[BunjiMC]

Couldn't be in a better spot.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Couldn't be in a better spot.View attachment 2413086

Think this year's field is different to most. The expansion to 18 teams has led to a very even top 9. No one is going to believe they can't beat Adelaide unlike #1 teams of the past.

 

[Scorpus]

If Ridley goes to Brisbane is that career over for Doedee?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If Ridley goes to Brisbane is that career over for Doedee?

May have more to do with Starcevich leaving.

 

[Scorpus]

May have more to do with Starcevich leaving.

If he leaves that would have been Doedee's path into the team

 

[spenze]

Did your batting average jump appreciably?

It took a few matches to get used to but it did help. What was definitely improved was my bowling; it was so much easier without glasses.

Fielding is still shithouse but

 

[AFC979810]

If Ridley goes to Brisbane is that career over for Doedee?

Nope.

Will only be just turned 29 when season 2026 starts and he is contracted to end of 2027.

Only way he pulls up stumps is if he has another serious injury.

 

[Scorpus]

Nope.

Will only be just turned 29 when season 2026 starts and he is contracted to end of 2027.

Only way he pulls up stumps is if he has another serious injury.

Yeah but is he having a career in the firsts or waiting out 2 years in the reserves before he's delisted?

 

[AFC979810]

Yeah but is he having a career in the firsts or waiting out 2 years in the reserves before he's delisted?

Depends on his preseason IMO. Needs to stay healthy and he will be in the framework for a best 22 spot.

 

[1970crow]

Couldn't be in a better spot.View attachment 2413086

Probably not much different, but wouldn’t mind seeing it for the pre finals bye era.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Port Adelaide has challenged for the premiership over the past decade and finished top-four in the home and away season three times of the past five years before this year. But the Power have not won a premiership since 2004, Essendon since 2000 and Carlton since 1995. Since the start of 2001, they have completed a combined 75 seasons for one flag and three Grand Final appearances. - Cal Twomey

Monday Cal-culations: Draft lockout not the answer, Nicks' past life lessons, Dees' deadline

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey looks at the big decisions facing the Demons, the Bombers' moves to land a new fitness boss and the 'reverse Coleman'

www.afl.com.au

Just as I thought, the Power being given Cochrane will be justified as a priority pick of sorts.

#tarps

 

[jo172]

Port Adelaide has challenged for the premiership over the past decade and finished top-four in the home and away season three times of the past five years before this year. But the Power have not won a premiership since 2004, Essendon since 2000 and Carlton since 1995. Since the start of 2001, they have completed a combined 75 seasons for one flag and three Grand Final appearances. - Cal Twomey

Monday Cal-culations: Draft lockout not the answer, Nicks' past life lessons, Dees' deadline

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey looks at the big decisions facing the Demons, the Bombers' moves to land a new fitness boss and the 'reverse Coleman'

www.afl.com.au

Just as I thought, the Power being given Cochrane will be justified as a priority pick of sorts.

#tarps

The poblem with this logic is you can use the same justification to give us, freo, north and st kilda a free crack at a number one pick just for the sake of it.

If anything it underlines the problem.

 

[Vader]

In fairness, by finishing first you would expect an ‘easier fixture’ on paper since we can’t play ourselves who are the top team. It’s the reverse for West Coast, they can’t get an easy game against, well, themselves.

Double ups against Collingwood, Hawks and Gold Coast is a reasonably difficult draw. Throw a blanket over the bottom 9. Is playing Richmond, West Coast, North or Essendon really any different?

Yeah... no.

They only considered the double up matches. Given that everyone plays everyone else once, it's only the double-up matches which contribute to difficulty of fixture (albeit ignoring the effect of home vs away matches).

Teams which finished the previous year in the top-6 are (theoretically) supposed to have:
3 double-up against teams which finished in the top-6
2 against the middle-6
1 against the bottom-6

Teams which finished the previous year in the bottom-6 are supposed to have:
1 against the top-6
2 against the middle-6
3 against the bottom-6

** Those numbers may not be quite right, but the gist of the idea is correct. Teams which finished top last year had a nominally harder draw this year, and bottom teams from last year were given an easier draw this year.

Adelaide's 2025 double ups were:
Norf - 17th in 2024
West Coast - 16th
Collingwood - 9th
Port - 3rd/4th
Hawthorn - 5th
Gold Coast - 13th

That's 2x top-6, 1x mid-6, 3x bottom-6. Having 3 of 6 double-up matches against teams which finished in the bottom-6 in 2024 made for a fairly easy expected difficulty of draw.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Gold Coast all improved their ladder positions in 2025, resulting in a harder than expected draw - but this was balanced out by Port's massive fall from grace. Norf & West Coast went nowhere.

 

[119others]

I reckon paying TDK $1.7M pa is significantly inflating his salary.

He's not a gun ruckman nor forward.

stupid decision esp with his crappy form from mid season 2025 (perhaps protecting himself as Saints offer subject to him not being out of the game for a year etc). He just isnt that good and not sure why they had to be 800k over Blues offer (1.8m per year is now the reported figure) where even being 'only' 300-400k would have been more than enough ie a 1.4m salary.

It also benchmarks quality player salaries at the Saints and any player like NWM or a quality inbound player will point to TDKs salary and ask to also be 'shown the money'. Interestingly one well respected ex player in the media said its not a flag winning strategy paying this much and was probably 20-30% above what it should be

Also talk of the power of player managers like Paul Connor that IF the Saints had tried to back out of the verbal offer then they would have been blacklisted for years by the most powerful player manager group so effectively it forces their hand (similar comments with Power letting Houston go for ridiculous unders last year to not piss off Connors stable)

 

[kirky]

stupid decision esp with his crappy form from mid season 2025 (perhaps protecting himself as Saints offer subject to him not being out of the game for a year etc). He just isnt that good and not sure why they had to be 800k over Blues offer (1.8m per year is now the reported figure) where even being 'only' 300-400k would have been more than enough ie a 1.4m salary.

It also benchmarks quality player salaries at the Saints and any player like NWM or a quality inbound player will point to TDKs salary and ask to also be 'shown the money'. Interestingly one well respected ex player in the media said its not a flag winning strategy paying this much and was probably 20-30% above what it should be

Also talk of the power of player managers like Paul Connor that IF the Saints had tried to back out of the verbal offer then they would have been blacklisted for years by the most powerful player manager group so effectively it forces their hand (similar comments with Power letting Houston go for ridiculous unders last year to not piss off Connors stable)

And Saints wonder why they have been a no nothing team for the past 100+ years - they just do stupid shut.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Couldn't be in a better spot.View attachment 2413086

Not one winner from fourth but seven from third. That’s quite a statistical quirk, given they’re the same position.

 

[119others]

And Saints wonder why they have been a no nothing team for the past 100+ years - they just do stupid shut.

look they needed to do SOMETHING and ultimately its going to 'look' good short term bringing in perhaps a handful almost of first 18 players (Ryan, TDK, SOS, maybe Aleer etc) but its a limiting strategy where they may make the finals next year but its not going to allow the sustained success of more responsible salary cap management which crows are very focused on.

'We are aiming for the longest premiership window possible' as per the main person in the Crows responsible for that very thing

 

[Slippery Pete]

Think this year's field is different to most. The expansion to 18 teams has led to a very even top 9. No one is going to believe they can't beat Adelaide unlike #1 teams of the past.

One thing that chart proves is the statistical reality of multiple top four (or top three haha) finishes.

Alastair Clarkson said this once. I can’t remember the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of plan to make three prelims for every one premiership you want to win.

It stacks up. All the great sides have lost prelims and GFs, sometimes even when they were the best team in it.

It happens, so you’ve gotta have a system in place that gets you there multiple times.

 

[kirky]

Not one winner from fourth but seven from third. That’s quite a statistical quirk, given they’re the same position.

That would be generally be I think that 2nd and 3rd not much difference in performance whereas from 1st to 4th is a bigger jump in most but not all seasons.

Now teams that finished 4th have only made a Grand Final 3 times over the past 25 seasons (since current final system introduced) - Collingwood in 2002, Sydney in 2006 and Geelong in 2020.

 

[kirky]

Think this year's field is different to most. The expansion to 18 teams has led to a very even top 9. No one is going to believe they can't beat Adelaide unlike #1 teams of the past.

This year is not much different to 2016 so each team would fancy their chances.

The only difference this time is 5 non-vic sides in 4 different states (as opposed to 4 non-Vic sides in 3 states).

 

[BunjiMC]

Not one winner from fourth but seven from third. That’s quite a statistical quirk, given they’re the same position.

I guess that's because 4th has to play 1st for that home prelim. 4th must not win that QF very often.

 

[FR0GGY]

Not one winner from fourth but seven from third. That’s quite a statistical quirk, given they’re the same position.

Well 4th plays 1st, how many times has the minor premier been the standout team?
Once you lose the qualifying final you are up against it.
Has the times the 3rd team won, beaten 2nd straight up?

 

[Slippery Pete]

I guess that's because 4th has to play 1st for that home prelim. 4th must not win that QF very often.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Well 4th plays 1st, how many times has the minor premier been the standout team?
Once you lose the qualifying final you are up against it.
Has the times the 3rd team won, beaten 2nd straight up?

That’s enough questions please