Opinion Non-Crows AFL 13: Offseason

[Peter Doherty]

Geelong have to actually win all 3 and if that’s the form they take to Sydney next week, they ain’t winning. Adelaide will gain more percentage on them this week too.

We will need to win by more than 40 points on Sunday just to maintain our current %.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

We're still over 4% ahead of Geelong with a game in hand. Against 18th.

If we get overtaken, then so be it. It's not like we don't have chances to seal top 2.

Bingo. Destiny is in our own hands. If we can't do it then that's on us. I must say tho it's nice that other teams are relying on us to fail instead of the other way round for once.

 

[jenny61_99]

just freakish conditions but I dont think we even really turned up that day anyway. It was one of those games we thought was in the bank, North hit us hard and with the freakish wind they were able to maximise the advantage. In the end we out scored them in the remaining 3qtrs. We were flogged at home the week after too. So we really had a form lapse.

We talked to Pyke about that after the Brisbane game. My husbands question to him was to pitch a hypothetical: we are in the grand final and we are down by 5 goals at half time…(he liked the thought we were in the grand final, not so keen we were behind at 1/2 time) What would he do in that scenario - would he interchange CHB and FF? Pull something out of left field? He hesitated… not sure about Jenkins he said. Hubby mentioned about the lack of mental toughness the team had shown (north game) and whether it was being addressed. Pyke had nothing and went on to do nothing and make no changes when we were in fact IN the grand final, and down at half time.

 

[Moonwatcher]

I've been saying it all year. We are getting shafted when we play other contenders. It's not an accident that this keeps happening.

Next year we want to play Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane twice IMO

 

[Moonwatcher]

Having said that there is little difference between 1st and 9th so could be asking to be eliminated.

 

[Tex Danger]

We will need to win by more than 40 points on Sunday just to maintain our current %.

Depends on what we keep them to

90 to 130 then yeah but if we win 100 to 60 that’s 167% for that match in isolation so would be a lot better than our seasonal % and actually increase % slightly

If we keep them to say 50, the. Anything we score over 72 maintains and then increases our %

 

[BRL121]

We will need to win by more than 40 points on Sunday just to maintain our current %.

Percentage is a ratio. We need to get 1.45X the oppo score to maintain our percentage. It's easiest to keep them to a low score.

 

[Tex Danger]

Percentage is a ratio. We need to get 1.45X the oppo score to maintain our percentage. It's easiest to keep them to a low score.

Yep as I just said 72 to 50 is a close win in the circumstances but still 144%

 

[Peter Doherty]

Next year we want to play Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane twice IMO

Bring it on. Nicks is 4-5 against Hawthorn, they are his 'bitch'.

 

[pjcrows]

 

[Peter Doherty]

View attachment 2390073

Did they wind that in a bit after the result tonight?

 

[pjcrows]

Did they wind that in a bit after the result tonight?

Cats were $4.50 this afternoon.

 

[Redleg Crow]

It's not as unlikely as you think.

In order for the Crows to stay ahead of Geelong on percentage, the Crows need to beat West Coast by 10 goals.

Assuming Geelong beat Sydney by 50 points and the Crows lost to Collingwood by 30 points, Geelong would finish ahead of the Crows on percentage if they beat Richmond in the final round by more than the Crows beat North Melbourne. Plus Geelong have the advantage of playing last and knowing the margin they need to beat.

What??? That’s not right. Let’s say we win 100-40 (10 goals) our percentage will rise!

 

[Moonwatcher]

Sydney have a percentage of 95% which is positive given they play Geelong next week on the SCG.

 

[relapse]

Good result in the end Essendon didn't get blown out so chances of Geelong passing us in percentage is quite low now

Don't be too sure.

I did the ladder protector with us beating WCE and North by 20 and losing to Collingwood by 20 and our percentage drops back to Geelong's.

 

[Iridescence]

Does it really matter what Geelong does or doesn't do? The chances we finish below second are very low, so we're almost guaranteed a home final first up. Other than winning the minor premiership, what is there really to gain?

 

[Tex Danger]

Does it really matter what Geelong does or doesn't do? The chances we finish below second are very low, so we're almost guaranteed a home final first up. Other than winning the minor premiership, what is there really to gain?

Is it that unlikely Bris win the rest of their games?
If cats won by 80-100 as many expected, with Richmond to come would it have been a surprise if we lost to Collingwood helped and they did that again and passed out %

I think it’s just nice to getting closer to some more certainly that it being likely that we will be too 2

 

[Moonwatcher]

If you take away the Crows game Sydney have a percentage of 115.9 on the SCG this year (just 89.9 with the Crows game).

 

[WetCrow1991]

I wouldn't say it's stupidly unlikely.

Geelong's record is poor in Sydney and the last time they beat them by over 50 (53 points) in Sydney was 2010 at ANZ. Most recent win in Sydney was 2019 by 27 points at the SCG.

You have to go back to 1994 for an actual flogging by Geelong in Sydney.

 

[BRL121]

Yep as I just said 72 to 50 is a close win in the circumstances but still 144%

It's quite funny. If Geelong had "declared" at halftime and the game was called off, they would be in a much better position. They maintained their scoring rate in the second half, but Essendon increased theirs by a factor of 4, halving Geelong's percentage gain.

The lesson is there.We need to play our usual game against WC and pressure and strangle their attack. Then the goals will come for us as usual. If we go into carefree mode and think only of goals, that will probably open us up at the back. We should aim to keep them below 50, I think.

 

[WetCrow1991]

Is it that unlikely Bris win the rest of their games?
If cats won by 80-100 as many expected, with Richmond to come would it have been a surprise if we lost to Collingwood helped and they did that again and passed out %

I think it’s just nice to getting closer to some more certainly that it being likely that we will be too 2

They have Hawks at home and Freo in Perth. They will most likely drop 1.

Moot anyway, we aren't losing again.

 

[radiojake]

trying to keep the lid on but if we manage to finish on top, it would be an absurd looking form line to have finished top in 2017, then 7 years of zero finals including a wooden spoon, back to top in 2025

 

[Apsaalooke]

Geelong have to actually win all 3 and if that’s the form they take to Sydney next week, they ain’t winning. Adelaide will gain more percentage on them this week too.

Essendon were competitive but Geelong got virtually all their goals from turnover. If we meet them in finals I can’t see us turning the ball over as much unless we revert to our previous game plan of kicking long to Tom Stewart.

 

[Geoffa32]

No massive % gain tonight

 

[GreyCrow]

We talked to Pyke about that after the Brisbane game. My husbands question to him was to pitch a hypothetical: we are in the grand final and we are down by 5 goals at half time…(he liked the thought we were in the grand final, not so keen we were behind at 1/2 time) What would he do in that scenario - would he interchange CHB and FF? Pull something out of left field? He hesitated… not sure about Jenkins he said. Hubby mentioned about the lack of mental toughness the team had shown (north game) and whether it was being addressed. Pyke had nothing and went on to do nothing and make no changes when we were in fact IN the grand final, and down at half time.

Then took your husbands suggestion and organised a camp. In the Gold Coast!

You you are to blame for the last 8 years