NRL 2021

[LukeParkerno1]

If you like Souths r1, which I do and have....have something on the to win the thing. No way they stay at that price if they beat Melbourne away

 

[Islanda22]

Not sure if mentioned but Sportsbet have a promo for the first few rounds where if your head to head bet scores in the first 5 mins, you will be paid out

Not bad I must say

 

[Islanda22]

Souths +1.5/$1.81
Newcastle $1.52
Broncos +8.5/$1.90
Warriors +3.5/$1.90
Roosters -9.5/$1.90
Cowboys +9.5/$1.90
Canberra -9.5/$1.90
Not touching the Dragons/Sharks

=$68.12

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Souths +1.5/$1.81
Newcastle $1.52
Broncos +8.5/$1.90
Warriors +3.5/$1.90
Roosters -9.5/$1.90
Cowboys +9.5/$1.90
Canberra -9.5/$1.90
Not touching the Dragons/Sharks

=$68.12

Nice bet, I'm thinking of taking the Dogs at the line myself. May just take Newcastle flat, think they still win. Only one I'd be scared of is the Cowboys boy jeez they are awful, +9.5 may not be enough!

 

[juss]

I rarely mess with lines first up, but does anyone else see value in this:

Melbourne v Souths either team to win by less than 10.5 points @ $1.78

It's almost like getting a +10 point buffer with either team, in what is a much debated match, that's a pretty good play I think.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I rarely mess with lines first up, but does anyone else see value in this:

Melbourne v Souths either team to win by less than 10.5 points @ $1.78

It's almost like getting a +10 point buffer with either team, in what is a much debated match, that's a pretty good play I think.

Outstanding play. I would hedge on a 13+ Souths myself, but that to me is almost the bet of the round! Which book is that with?

 

[Islanda22]

Nice bet, I'm thinking of taking the Dogs at the line myself. May just take Newcastle flat, think they still win. Only one I'd be scared of is the Cowboys boy jeez they are awful, +9.5 may not be enough!

Yeah I could almost take the Newc/Bulldogs game off because they both look average on paper

Bulldogs have the better backs, Newc has the better forwards

 

[Islanda22]

Nice bet, I'm thinking of taking the Dogs at the line myself. May just take Newcastle flat, think they still win. Only one I'd be scared of is the Cowboys boy jeez they are awful, +9.5 may not be enough!

I think Penrith are due to fall off after a good 3-4 years around the mark

Cowboys are playing there best 17 for the first time in a long time which is why i chose them

 

[juss]

Outstanding play. I would hedge on a 13+ Souths myself, but that to me is almost the bet of the round! Which book is that with?

Neds, and there's a few different points bands they offer, like you can get either team under 6.5, 12.5, etc. Look for a bet called a Tribet.

Bet365 also have a Tribet, either team under 7 @ $2.40

I'm sure there's other bookies that offer this market too.

EDIT: Either team under 10.5 is now $1.82, I'm liking that.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Neds, and there's a few different points bands they offer, like you can get either team under 6.5, 12.5, etc. Look for a bet called a Tribet.

Bet365 also have a Tribet, either team under 7 @ $2.40

I'm sure there's other bookies that offer this market too.

EDIT: Either team under 10.5 is now $1.82, I'm liking that.

Cheers Juss. I'll follow with that bet. Nice safe play. Can't see it a blowout, 4-6 points is about the most I expect the margin to be.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think Penrith are due to fall off after a good 3-4 years around the mark

Cowboys are playing there best 17 for the first time in a long time which is why i chose them

I don't rate Penrith much (felt they were overrated last year). However the Cowboys are dreadful, their halves are abysmal.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah I could almost take the Newc/Bulldogs game off because they both look average on paper

Bulldogs have the better backs, Newc has the better forwards

It will be a bludger of a game that one. Ponga out for Newcastle just scares me tipping them. Everything they score goes through him. Tex Hoy is all talk, never seen a more overrated breakthrough star apparently. He's no Ponga that's for sure.

 

[juss]

It will be a bludger of a game that one. Ponga out for Newcastle just scares me tipping them. Everything they score goes through him. Tex Hoy is all talk, never seen a more overrated breakthrough star apparently. He's no Ponga that's for sure.

They're a 10-12 point better side with Ponga no doubt. When I saw he was out it's probably a game I'll stay away from, definitely not touching them at the mid $1.50s

 

[LukeParkerno1]

They're a 10-12 point better side with Ponga no doubt. When I saw he was out it's probably a game I'll stay away from, definitely not touching them at the mid $1.50s

Yep not a game I'm touching. Might have an any time try bet in the game for interest, but tipping that game is impossible without Ponga. They really should be $1.75 at best without Ponga.

 

[Islanda22]

I don't rate Penrith much (felt they were overrated last year). However the Cowboys are dreadful, their halves are abysmal.

9.5 head start looks good but I agree the halves are an issue.

It will be a bludger of a game that one. Ponga out for Newcastle just scares me tipping them. Everything they score goes through him. Tex Hoy is all talk, never seen a more overrated breakthrough star apparently. He's no Ponga that's for sure.

I have decided not to add Knights

They're a 10-12 point better side with Ponga no doubt. When I saw he was out it's probably a game I'll stay away from, definitely not touching them at the mid $1.50s

100%

 

[LukeParkerno1]

9.5 head start looks good but I agree the halves are an issue.

I have decided not to add Knights

Don't think 9.5 will be enough, could be wrong and it might be a 18-10 win but somehow I doubt it. The new rules promote higher scoring and that suits the sides with the better halves and more creative players. Massive issue with the Cowboys. If I were you I'd have two multis and go both ways. That way you aren't worrying about that game much.

Good call on the newcastle game it's way too much of a risk. Watch the Dogs win it too.

 

[Islanda22]

Don't think 9.5 will be enough, could be wrong and it might be a 18-10 win but somehow I doubt it. The new rules promote higher scoring and that suits the sides with the better halves and more creative players. Massive issue with the Cowboys. If I were you I'd have two multis and go both ways. That way you aren't worrying about that game much.

Good call on the newcastle game it's way too much of a risk. Watch the Dogs win it too.

Maybe take Cowboys off haha

Still a decent 5 legger with the rest

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Maybe take Cowboys off haha

Still a decent 5 legger with the rest

It's your cash mate, Or just put the most on what you think and hedge 10% of your outlay on Penrith 13+ or something in that e.g.. That would be pretty safe. You get your money back and a bit more on the hedge.

 

[srobbo]

Regardless of the eventual result, I still think South Sydney will represent value, I've got them as slight favourites but right right now they're above $2.

It's not to say Storm won't/can't win, that would be silly, but the smart bet based on the odds is currently with the Bunnies for me. I could be totally misreading it though, it's only round 1 so it's gonna take some time to get a good read.

In all honesty I don’t think souths or any opponent in Melbourne represent value below $2.50. Begs the question how often do you get the Storm at or near even money at home?

 

[juss]

In all honesty I don’t think souths or any opponent in Melbourne represent value below $2.50. Begs the question how often do you get the Storm at or near even money at home?

Dunno, but I'm not touching the Storm at $2 even, I just think Souths is the pick, I have them about 55% , but likely I will take my Tribet which gives me 10.5 points either way. I think this will be tight.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Did say thought Souths were clear favs glad I got on Souths when they were outsiders

Think Souths start $1.80/Storm $2

 

[iluvparis]

Will be all over the Storm just before the jump

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The bet of both sides under 10.5 was a cracking get. Think that’s very safe!

 

[juss]

Yeh the market now reflects where I reckon it should be. I'm comfortable with my either team under 10.5, I still think Souths should have been faves but I held and didn't bet when they were +$2 so not going to take them now.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeh the market now reflects where I reckon it should be. I'm comfortable with my either team under 10.5, I still think Souths should have been faves but I held and didn't bet when they were +$2 so not going to take them now.

Took them as soon as markers opened thought the market was the wrong way around