LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
If you like Souths r1, which I do and have....have something on the to win the thing. No way they stay at that price if they beat Melbourne away
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LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Nice bet, I'm thinking of taking the Dogs at the line myself. May just take Newcastle flat, think they still win. Only one I'd be scared of is the Cowboys boy jeez they are awful, +9.5 may not be enough!
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I rarely mess with lines first up, but does anyone else see value in this:
Melbourne v Souths either team to win by less than 10.5 points @ $1.78
It's almost like getting a +10 point buffer with either team, in what is a much debated match, that's a pretty good play I think.
Melbourne v Souths either team to win by less than 10.5 points @ $1.78
It's almost like getting a +10 point buffer with either team, in what is a much debated match, that's a pretty good play I think.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Outstanding play. I would hedge on a 13+ Souths myself, but that to me is almost the bet of the round! Which book is that with?
- Banned
- #57
Yeah I could almost take the Newc/Bulldogs game off because they both look average on paper
Bulldogs have the better backs, Newc has the better forwards
- Banned
- #58
I think Penrith are due to fall off after a good 3-4 years around the mark
Cowboys are playing there best 17 for the first time in a long time which is why i chose them
Neds, and there's a few different points bands they offer, like you can get either team under 6.5, 12.5, etc. Look for a bet called a Tribet.
Bet365 also have a Tribet, either team under 7 @ $2.40
I'm sure there's other bookies that offer this market too.
EDIT: Either team under 10.5 is now $1.82, I'm liking that.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Cheers Juss. I'll follow with that bet. Nice safe play. Can't see it a blowout, 4-6 points is about the most I expect the margin to be.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I don't rate Penrith much (felt they were overrated last year). However the Cowboys are dreadful, their halves are abysmal.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
It will be a bludger of a game that one. Ponga out for Newcastle just scares me tipping them. Everything they score goes through him. Tex Hoy is all talk, never seen a more overrated breakthrough star apparently. He's no Ponga that's for sure.
They're a 10-12 point better side with Ponga no doubt. When I saw he was out it's probably a game I'll stay away from, definitely not touching them at the mid $1.50s
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Yep not a game I'm touching. Might have an any time try bet in the game for interest, but tipping that game is impossible without Ponga. They really should be $1.75 at best without Ponga.
- Banned
- #65
9.5 head start looks good but I agree the halves are an issue.
I have decided not to add Knights
100%
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Don't think 9.5 will be enough, could be wrong and it might be a 18-10 win but somehow I doubt it. The new rules promote higher scoring and that suits the sides with the better halves and more creative players. Massive issue with the Cowboys. If I were you I'd have two multis and go both ways. That way you aren't worrying about that game much.
Good call on the newcastle game it's way too much of a risk. Watch the Dogs win it too.
- Banned
- #67
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
It's your cash mate, Or just put the most on what you think and hedge 10% of your outlay on Penrith 13+ or something in that e.g.. That would be pretty safe. You get your money back and a bit more on the hedge.
In all honesty I don’t think souths or any opponent in Melbourne represent value below $2.50. Begs the question how often do you get the Storm at or near even money at home?
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Dunno, but I'm not touching the Storm at $2 even, I just think Souths is the pick, I have them about 55% , but likely I will take my Tribet which gives me 10.5 points either way. I think this will be tight.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Did say thought Souths were clear favs glad I got on Souths when they were outsiders
Think Souths start $1.80/Storm $2
Think Souths start $1.80/Storm $2
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,656
- AFL Club
- Carlton
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- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Will be all over the Storm just before the jump
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
The bet of both sides under 10.5 was a cracking get. Think that’s very safe!
Yeh the market now reflects where I reckon it should be. I'm comfortable with my either team under 10.5, I still think Souths should have been faves but I held and didn't bet when they were +$2 so not going to take them now.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Took them as soon as markers opened thought the market was the wrong way around
