Official Melbourne Cup Thread

[The Dustbin]

Activation the querie over the trip buddy.

Expertform analysis - TAWQEET AQUA D'AMORE DELTA BLUES midfield rail 5L off even tempo, switched off rail and came out 5-6W home turn (Tawqeet happily took his vacated rails run), battled on well down outside, peaked on line - definitely wins if stays on fence.

Also he crossed over three horses and then had to run on again, 4 lengths easily lost.

Rodd gave Activation every chance of winning by giving him a clear run in the straight. Didn't get checked had a clear passage was simply not good enough.
Poor Rodd can't win, he cops it either way. If he stays on the fence or makes a run out wide.

That's racing Helmie. I could write a 2000 page book on how many horses i have backed that should've could've wouldv'e won a race if only everything just fell into place.

Scoreboard doesn't lie. Tawqeet 2 Activation 0

 

[starz]

Does anyone know when exactly the barrier draw is for the MC, is it televised/radio?

 

[sethlad]

6.30 pm Saturday,live on TVN.

seth

 

[starz]

Thanks seth, don't have tvn only sky racing.
I know the antepost market is suspended at 6pm roughly, not sure whether to wait or go in early.

 

[sethlad]

Sky might do it,problem is they show so many races its unlikely theyd have the gap in their schedule.

Probably live on 927 too.

seth

 

[starz]

In that case i'll be locking into sport927.
What do you like for the MC?

 

[sethlad]

Its the one race I can categorically say I know what cant win.
This year is strange because theres barely a WFA quality horse in it.
The internationals are hard to work out as usual.
Tawqeet is unknown at WFA,cant have Zipping,Dizelle,Railings.

Stay tuned

seth

 

[starz]

"Can't have Zipping" why?

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Tend to agree Seth it won't be one of those WFA standard type Cups we have come to expect.
Is there a Brew type to come on late in the scene?
I will be having a smallish bet on Magic Instinct at the fixed $71, just in case he can win impressively tommorrow (which I think he can).

 

[Dingster]

The internationals are hard to work out as usual.

Agreed. Hard enough knowing what a Sydney horse will do in Melbourne, let alone an overseas one. That said....I backed Yeats today.

 

[sethlad]

Before it won at MV,I had my doubts.That race is a shocking guide.
He's a Danehill,record speaks for itself over 2 miles
Boss was completely underwhelmed after MV.
Everything has to go right to win a M Cup,its already jarred up at least once.
Preparation has been all over the place after being emergency at Caulfield.

He is quality & I know youre in love with it but $11???

Not saying he cant be in the finish,I just dont think hes a winning hope.

seth

 

[starz]

Yeats won't finish top 10 imo. Not with 59kg. Hasn't raced on australian tracks. It's only so short because of the English money.

 

[starz]

Before it won at MV,I had my doubts.That race is a shocking guide.
He's a Danehill,record speaks for itself over 2 miles
Boss was completely underwhelmed after MV.
Everything has to go right to win a M Cup,its already jarred up at least once.
Preparation has been all over the place after being emergency at Caulfield.

He is quality & I know youre in love with it but $11???

Not saying he cant be in the finish,I just dont think hes a winning hope.

seth

11/1? 20/1 on offer as we speak. I'm already on @ 71/1 & 51/1.
Lloyd said Zipping didn't even feel the run after last week so condition is good and he's been prepared for this race.
As for the distance, i've never seen anything beat it home even in the Caulfield Cup. 3200 won't be a problem.

 

[sethlad]

Good for you,thats about its right price.
Id be laying it for all I could get at $20,free money.

One of us will be right so we'll soon know.

seth

 

[starz]

Brave man who lays anything over 5/1 imo.
5/1 on offer just to place is better than Makybe Diva @ 5/1 last year.

 

[sethlad]

If Id backed it at $71,Id be getting as much as I could out of it.

I got $101 Rendzina in the Oaks at IAS & have laid it at $17,$16 & $15.
Still hoping she wins but a lot can happen between now & Thursday.
She might go awfully today in the Wakeful & they dont push on.

Its about putting yourself in a winning position,regardless of other events.
I dont bet for the place.

seth

 

[starz]

If you can provide some evidence that Zipping couldn't run it out then i would lay off. I know what i've seen, i'll be letting it ride.
Whoever you guys are backing enjoy your extra 2.5 - 6.5kg.

 

[sethlad]

If struggling to get past Show Barry & Gallic at 2500 didnt convince you then I guess theres nothing more I can say.
I must have missed its flashing finish into 12th at Caulfield.

It aint the worst but IMO would be a surprise winner

seth

 

[YOTC]

Yeats won't finish top 10 imo. Not with 59kg. Hasn't raced on australian tracks. It's only so short because of the English money.

I reckon he'll finish around 5th or so. Quality Horse, but won't be used to the style in Australia.

Apart from him i have no freaking idea of whos going to run well and whos going to struggle.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Our Smoking Joe is out of the Cup, got a knock on a leg.

 

[Iknowyouloveme]

Efficient into $7 Would be very suprised if it got close, wouldn't even think it'll run top 6.

Maybe Better on the other hand will go top 5 and win it IMO.

 

[BlueZippy]

I put $5 fixed odds on Headturner cos I thought he would run well today and come in.

After todays run I may as well throw the ticket away. ATM leaning towards Yeats maybe.

 

[starz]

If struggling to get past Show Barry & Gallic at 2500 didnt convince you then I guess theres nothing more I can say.
I must have missed its flashing finish into 12th at Caulfield.

It aint the worst but IMO would be a surprise winner

seth

I understand all that everyone else sees is a 12th in the CC.
The truth is he got a late call-up, drew the grandstand, unfavorable track, anything back was never a chance. Gutsy effort to back up 7 days later, had to come from 3rd last/ 3 wide and win to get into the Cup and did. You probably overlooked that..
I'm very happy with his form.
As for his genes at the distance http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20665630-2722,00.html
You might need to do a bit more research.

Barrier 20 is disappointing but the rest will need all the help they can get. Odds will drift a further 25% by Tuesday.

 

[sethlad]

All I said was IMO Danehills dont win at 2 miles.
Never mentioned its dam or pedigree.

Once again,we will see Tuesday.

seth

 

[hawkeyeqld]

Really leaning this way at the moment.

TAWQEET
MANDELA
MAYBE BETTER
?EFFICIENT?
Delta Blues
Geordieland
Kerry O'Rielly

Efficient is the x-factor. History is against but super, super impressive today.
Blitzed them and the books have it at real skinny odds considering the amount of money already on Tawqeet and Yeats.