Analysis Oldest / Youngest lists, post drafts

[Marcel Proust]

If anyone wants to work out the avg age of our best 22 I’d appreciate it!

Williams Davis Shaw
Haynes Taylor Whitfield
Kelly Ward Coniglio
Greene Cameron Daniels
Finlayson HH Hill
Jacobs Taranto Hopper

Caldwell DeBoer Perryman Corr

+1

Grimes Rance Broad
HB: Houli Astbury Vlastuin
C: Caddy Prestia Lambert
HF: Edwards Riewoldt Pickett
F: Rioli Lynch Castagna
FOLL: Nank Cotchin (C) Martin
INT: Graham Bolton Stack Soldo

EMG: Short Baker KMac Higgins

 

[branedotorg]

Need to take out the outliers to do this properly

 

[Kappa]

You hear the talk about hawthorn being old but
Cox, Sidebottom, Roughead, Howe, Beams, Reid, Greenwood, Mayne, Varcose, Pendlebury
is a lot of class to have to replace one day in the future

Collingwood are a very strong team [colling v wce gf, colling v gws prelim] but one wonders how long the window is open for?

The way Pendlebury and Sidebottom play, both are likely to be able to play until a lot older than most players. Reid Greenwood Mayne Varcoe haven't been relevant for a while, depth players only, won't hurt when they go. Roughhead is solid, but again should be easily replaceable. Beams has barely even played for us...

 

[My Tilly]

Same with Geelong when Ablett & Taylor retire.

People bang on about the age of lists. There really is not all that much in it

In season 2020 . . . . Tuohy, Ablett, Taylor, Selwood, Hawkins, Jenkins, Steven are 30+
Dangerfield, Blicavs, Stanley, Rohan, Duncan are 29+

Of all the younger players on our list, the only ones who we can categorically claim to be elite are Tom Stewart (27 years) and recently departed Tim Kelly.

Our list is dire and this is solely due to topping up with mature aged players all these years.

 

[HairyO]

They said stack would need four preseaons before he could play

meaningful is very subjective

Who are "they" ?

Generally only ruckmen need that long. Talls 2 or 3 years.

 

[WillHayward]

How many of those are in our best ten players?

3

 

[4tune8]

+1

Grimes Rance Broad
HB: Houli Astbury Vlastuin
C: Caddy Prestia Lambert
HF: Edwards Riewoldt Pickett
F: Rioli Lynch Castagna
FOLL: Nank Cotchin (C) Martin
INT: Graham Bolton Stack Soldo

EMG: Short Baker KMac Higgins

Average age of this team is 26.1

 

[juss]

A nothing to see here analysis ...

Average age/games of best 22, and age/games of top 10 best and fairest I think would be far more interesting and indicative of where a club is placed imo.

Average list age doesn't tell you much.

 

[A Banderas]

Tigers in the box seat for more premierships

 

[worldlylizard19]

In season 2020 . . . . Tuohy, Ablett, Taylor, Selwood, Hawkins, Jenkins, Steven are 30+
Dangerfield, Blicavs, Stanley, Rohan, Duncan are 29+

Of all the younger players on our list, the only ones who we can categorically claim to be elite are Tom Stewart (27 years) and recently departed Tim Kelly.

Our list is dire and this is solely due to topping up with mature aged players all these years.

Clubs typically don't rebuild unless it is forced upon them.

 

[HTT]

Need to take out the outliers to do this properly

To do it properly it really needs to have a combination of objective and subjective measures interpreted by a neutral.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Need to take out the outliers to do this properly

Is Lance Franklin an very important footballer or an 'outlier' ?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Clubs typically don't rebuild unless it is forced upon them.

was clarko forced to tank/rebuild or was it an his preferred route to potential success?

 

[Nugett]

Can’t really see the point of this thread. To begin With between top and bottom, there is 17 months difference. That basically works out to be a month age difference in descending order. It’s not much in the bigger Scheme of things.

I’m just going to do a pros and cons of each age demographic. 30+ players by this stage of the career are usually around the 200+ game mark. The pros. Were considered to be good to great, to have survived this long. Very aware and through years of service have developed awareness and have a firm grasp of their capabilities. Most have been in leadership groups and are able to make the correct choices. The cons are that reflexes diminish. Your prone to injury., your at the end of your career. The best playing days are over. Players in this category, Gary Ablett Jnr, Joel Selwood, Alex Rance, Jack Reiwoldt, Shaun Burgoyne, Issac Smith. What these players provide is experience and leadership.

in the next section the 27-29 year olds. Have also proven to be at least capable. Most have played 150+ games . Pros
have or have been part of a leadership programme, that helps the make better choices due to awareness. Have experience, just peaking the zenith of their careers before they head back down. Cons some in this group will be role players depending on their earlier development. players in this group include Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Gunston, Max Gawn and Dwayne Beams. These players provide the spark, for most they are established, for others they are merely kept on for depth and to help develop the next generation.

The 23-26 year olds. depending on the player the games played would be a minimum of 50 plus. The pros. Those that have established themselves are about to reach their peak. Only through accidents are they rarely injured. Are started to build their confidence and awareness. Cons For those that are not considered, are used for depth, easily expendable, general role players. As the average AFL career is 6 years, about half of this age group, has a high chance of being delisted and most that will be delisted will probably never play AFL again. Notable Players are Jordan Degoey, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, James Sicily and Lachie Weller. Those that do make it, are entering the best form of the careers. Those that are deemed role player/ depth are cover for injuries.

The 20 - 22 year olds. some of the players may still be developing, and won’t have played a game by this stage. Pros. Are starting to understand their role to the club. Bring excitement and enthusiasm. Cons are still developing. Some players may not make it. players Willie Rioli, James Worpel, Jacob Weitering, Josh Sache, Jy Simpkin and Jade Gresham. They bring hope and optimism. For the most part they are still in the developmental stage to hopefully rejuvenate the list. They are being tried to see wether or not they do have a future.

The under 20 group. Starting their careers a lot of these players won’t make it. The pros. The excitement of hopefully seeing new talent brought into the club. The cons the disappointment if they don’t. Ben King, Max King, Sam Walsh, Jack Lukious, Finn McGuiness and Connor Rozee. They are here for potential. Most will be developed before being introduced. they are brought in as a compulsory measure to rejuvenate lists each year due to retirements and delistings.

So each club has at least one player in each category. So the age of the list for success in my opinion. It is the skills of the players on a list, and what they bring to the club is what really determines success. Age has very little to do with it. As I have pointed out, not every 18 year old is going to make it. Not every 30 year old is going to drastically fall off a cliff and end up in a nursing home.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Can’t really see the point of this thread. To begin With between top and bottom, there is 17 months difference. That basically works out to be a month age difference in descending order. It’s not much in the bigger Scheme of things.

its actually a lot in the world of football with the drafts, salary caps equalization etc.

swans and suns are in a lot difference place to pies and hawks

 

[Captain chaos]

Geez richmonds in a good spot considering they won the flag... not much difference between their average age and carltons.

 

[My Tilly]

Clubs typically don't rebuild unless it is forced upon them.

That is absolute crap!
Every team has a choice and with Geelong, it's all about relevancy. That is fine and it's now been a very profitable path but ultimately, you are judged on by premierships. It seems as though the powers that be at Geelong, are all too comfortable in ensuring we remain in the finals hunt but without any serious challenge for another grand final berth.
Really, what is the point of that?
If you knew we could finish 6th next year and bow out of the finals in week 1 or finish 10th and pump in 15-20 games into a batch of young blokes, what would you choose?

 

[Marcel Proust]

I’m just going to do a pros and cons of each age demographic. 30+ players by this stage of the career are usually around the 200+ game mark. The pros. Were considered to be good to great, to have survived this long. Very aware and through years of service have developed awareness and have a firm grasp of their capabilities. Most have been in leadership groups and are able to make the correct choices. The cons are that reflexes diminish. Your prone to injury., your at the end of your career. The best playing days are over. Players in this category, Gary Ablett Jnr, Joel Selwood, Alex Rance, Jack Reiwoldt, Shaun Burgoyne, Issac Smith. What these players provide is experience and leadership.

i dunno, Jack kicked five goals in his last game (a grand final) bit of a assumption to say his best is gone.

Rance has been training hard too and looks hungry

 

[Nugett]

its actually a lot in the world of football with the drafts, salary caps equalizatoins etc.

swans and suns are in a lot difference place to pies and hawks

with the Swans and Suns, how many of their youth will be on their list in 6 years? How many will actually develop?

With the Hawks and the Pies the vast majority that will leave is through retirements. Also too some of their youth, will have likely been delisted as well.

Short term (1-2 years) The Pies and Hawks are slightly better off due to the experience on their lists. Long term it’s pretty even as it depends on the people following the past players experience can develop into them roles. In the cut throat world of trading and free agency, the ones that do make it could be tempted else where, or become surplus to needs due to cap issues (GWS) due to having higher wages to keep more talented youngsters to stay.

 

[Nugett]

i dunno, Jack kicked five goals in his last game (a grand final) bit of a assumption to say his best is gone.

Rance has been training hard too and looks hungry

Roughy kicked 6 in his last match. There are reasons why they are greats of the game, it’s because they can/could still deliver. The problem becomes when instead of doing it every week, they do it every second. For me Roughhead 4 years ago was a better player than Roughhead of the past 2 years. Your more familiar with Richmond players than me though.

Burgoyne also shows up hungry in the preseason as well. They are professional it’s what they do.

 

[Furn2]

theres no correlation to list age and future performance.



As you can see the oldest 3 lists outperform the youngest in the future.



As does the oldest 6 compared to the youngest 6.

 

[Kwality]

Average age/games of best 22, and age/games of top 10 best and fairest I think would be far more interesting and indicative of where a club is placed imo.

Average list age doesn't tell you much.

i dunno, Jack kicked five goals in his last game (a grand final) bit of a assumption to say his best is gone.

Rance has been training hard too and looks hungry

Josh Kennedy & Shannon Hurn ... bloody big hole , they must be getting old, well fancy that.

Averages hide problems, in isolation age is irrelevant.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I wouldn’t say the average age of the list is a meaningless statistic. But like most statistics, if you don’t drill down further before drawing conclusions then your conclusions are not likely to be reliable.

If you are trying to project the value of a current list into some future season, let us say 2022, or some future period, let’s say 2020-2025, you need to allow for all sorts of things just to get an average effectiveness expectancy based on factors that MAY be possible to assess usefully...

• key leadership players
• key players based on football performance
• other currently automatically selected players
• players on the list who are assessed as likely to enter any of the above three categories during the period in question
• value and cost of currently locked in contracts
• whether the list suggests all areas on the ground will be effectively covered well during the period in question

Where the average age can mislead is you could argue that say Kade Simpson or Shaun Burgoyne when they were aged 34 would have a similar effective matches expectancy as say Joel Selwood or Dayne Beams at age 30. Also, a list loaded with recent and decent round one draft picks like Carlton may have from that group a much higher *effective matches expectancy in 2022 from that group than say another group of 18-22 year olds from another club.

There are so many other factors that could go into this analysis, but I would say draw conclusions based on mean averages at your peril. Samples always require adjustment before making predictions based on them if you want the predictions to have value.

When you think of it, the worst thing you can have on your list is a player locked into a large long term contract who is not going to perform to the value of that contract. If he is 21 years of age he reduces your average age, but possibly severely hampers your ability to perform in future seasons. A 30 year old Brian Lake on a smaller and shorter contract from 2013 is much better for the health of your list if you are talking about performance over the next 2-3 seasons, but perhaps not very much use if you are considering seasons beyond 2015.

* I would define effective matches for this purpose as being played at a level capable of competing well in the finals.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

theres no correlation to list age and future performance.

View attachment 787713

As you can see the oldest 3 lists outperform the youngest in the future.

View attachment 787715

As does the oldest 6 compared to the youngest 6.

Excellent post. May I ask where you got the data in the tables and from which period they were taken?

 

[Captain chaos]

Roughy kicked 6 in his last match. There are reasons why they are greats of the game, it’s because they can/could still deliver. The problem becomes when instead of doing it every week, they do it every second. For me Roughhead 4 years ago was a better player than Roughhead of the past 2 years. Your more familiar with Richmond players than me though.

Burgoyne also shows up hungry in the preseason as well. They are professional it’s what they do.

Didnt roughead do it against the suns in melb? Bit different to a gf!