Analysis Optimism at the bye

[NEGAN]

Yeah trust is a big issue for the fans ....

6-3 is good, but we have been in similar positions before, only to piss it all away.

 

[tribey]

6-3 is good, but we have been in similar positions before, only to piss it all away.

The one that grinds my grundies is,

"You'd have taken 6-3 at the start of the year"

Had we not shat out the usual Keystone Cops performance against a pooey Essendon and woefully undermanned Geelong we could've been 8-1.

Those are games we should be winning at this point in the process and will be the difference between home Prelims and second week exits.

 

[GremioPower]

The one that grinds my grundies is,

"You'd have taken 6-3 at the start of the year"

Had we not shat out the usual Keystone Cops performance against a pooey Essendon and woefully undermanned Geelong we could've been 8-1.

Those are games we should be winning at this point in the process and will be the difference between home Prelims and second week exits.

Since we are at it, let's include the game against the Eagles (they lost to Sydney in Perth, and we beat the Swans away, right?!), and make it a round 9-0. That we are only 6-3 is really disappointing, indeed...

 

[Janus]

Let's put it this way.

In terms of performance, I rank us as the 9th best team in the competition. West Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood are performing better than us at this point in time from a statistical standpoint.

The only standout team is West Coast, and they aren't even close to replicating what Adelaide did last year.

We are only in a good position to build a season from, but that's it, because we sure as shit aren't playing the level of football required to win the flag at the moment.

But since we've missed:

Ryder for 6 games
Powell-Pepper for 3 games
Rockliff for 2 games (some would say 6 games since we've been carrying him against Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane and Essendon)
Marshall for 5.5 games

and those players were all missing for the game against Geelong at home, and Ryder and Powell-Pepper were missing against Essendon with Rockliff and Marshall getting injured during the game, I'm willing to cut the side some slack.

 

[HighBudget]

Ladder predictor here if anyone wants to guess how things might pan out: https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

This is what I got

I have Port losing against Richmond, Demons and Crows

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yeah trust is a big issue for the fans ....

6-3 is good, but we have been in similar positions before, only to piss it all away.

The trouble is, not that we get into a similar position eg 5-4 or 5-3 mid season, its that outside 2013 and 2014 we have never been +3 games up wins over losses and kicked on with it mid season, because we tend to stuff it up when we get to +2 wins

2013 we had that 5-0 run followed by a 0-5 run to be 5-5 as winter set in. We got to 10-7 then 11-7 and then 12-8 but finished the year 12-10 with that loss by a point to Carlton last ever game at Footy Park when we were 5 goals up at 3/4 time.

2014 after being 2-1, we got to 4-1 and 10-1 then lost in Syd by 4 pts and went to 10-2. But post that game we went 4-6 for the rest of the season.

2015 after a bloody tough first 5 games that we got to 3-2 after being 0-2, we got to 6-8 and then 8-10 before we won the last 4 straight to finish 12-10

2016 with CAS suspensions and shocking injury run and form issues for a few players, after we were 2-1 we never got on the positive side of the Wins ledger, got to 5-5, 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 9-9 but finished 10-12.

2017 just coudnt win 3 in a row until the end of the season. Came back from China 5-3 and did get to 8-5 but it was win one or two, drop one, type stuff and after the showdown it was 11-8 before we won the last 3 to end the year 14-8.

So to win 4 straight in June (should be 5 with Carlton away on 30th) and therefore 6 in a row will be an unusual effort under Ken's tenure.

 

[tribey]

Since we are at it, let's include the game against the Eagles (they lost to Sydney in Perth, and we beat the Swans away, right?!), and make it a round 9-0. That we are only 6-3 is really disappointing, indeed...

Sarcasm or not, this is gross.

Let's set a standard and live up to expectations for once.

 

[Andre]

The trouble is, not that we get into a similar position eg 5-4 or 5-3 mid season, its that outside 2013 and 2014 we have never been +3 games up wins over losses and kicked on with it mid season, because we tend to stuff it up when we get to +2 wins

2013 we had that 5-0 run followed by a 0-5 run to be 5-5 as winter set in. We got to 10-7 then 11-7 and then 12-8 but finished the year 12-10 with that loss by a point to Carlton last ever game at Footy Park when we were 5 goals up at 3/4 time.

2014 after being 2-1, we got to 4-1 and 10-1 then lost in Syd by 4 pts and went to 10-2. But post that game we went 4-6 for the rest of the season.

2015 after a bloody tough first 5 games that we got to 3-2 after being 0-2, we got to 6-8 and then 8-10 before we won the last 4 straight to finish 12-10

2016 with CAS suspensions and shocking injury run and form issues for a few players, after we were 2-1 we never got on the positive side of the Wins ledger, got to 5-5, 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 9-9 but finished 10-12.

2017 just coudnt win 3 in a row until the end of the season. Came back from China 5-3 and did get to 8-5 but it was win one or two, drop one, type stuff and after the showdown it was 11-8 before we won the last 3 to end the year 14-8.

So to win 4 straight in June (should be 5 with Carlton away on 30th) and therefore 6 in a row will be an unusual effort under Ken's tenure.

All of these have issues with KPP's being selected when first choice one's were out as the main (though not only) reason for shit runs. If Marshall is back soon, then we get to see if Ken has really changed. If we can get / keep our best team on the park we're a genuine chance, but we lack KPP / ruck depth (or the inclination to play them), so any of those go down and we quickly fall back. We are definitely not a 'like for like' replacement way of selecting players.

 

[Janus]

There is no one “like” Marshall.

 

[Lagooner]

Let's put it this way.

In terms of performance, I rank us as the 9th best team in the competition. West Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood are performing better than us at this point in time from a statistical standpoint.

The only standout team is West Coast, and they aren't even close to replicating what Adelaide did last year.

We are only in a good position to build a season from, but that's it, because we sure as shit aren't playing the level of football required to win the flag at the moment.

But since we've missed:

Ryder for 6 games
Powell-Pepper for 3 games
Rockliff for 2 games (some would say 6 games since we've been carrying him against Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane and Essendon)
Marshall for 5.5 games

and those players were all missing for the game against Geelong at home, and Ryder and Powell-Pepper were missing against Essendon with Rockliff and Marshall getting injured during the game, I'm willing to cut the side some slack.

We no doubt perform better with the four guys you mentioned in the team but it’s still pretty concerning that we went to poo in their absence. All teams have injuries to deal with.

 

[Papa G]

The one that grinds my grundies is,

"You'd have taken 6-3 at the start of the year"

Had we not shat out the usual Keystone Cops performance against a pooey Essendon and woefully undermanned Geelong we could've been 8-1.

Those are games we should be winning at this point in the process and will be the difference between home Prelims and second week exits.

The Geelong game shat me way way more than the Essendon one. The Essendon one I saw from a mile away. We were due for a loss and Essendon were super pumped given the media scrutiny. It was always going to happen.

The Geelong one just made me so so angry. The coaching was appalling and we lost to them exactly the same way we do every time. It really had me questioning whether Hinkley has a brain.

 

[DaTBird187]

At this stage I think West Coast, Richmond, Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne are clearly better than us. I see us in the bracket with Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS and North fighting for spots 6-11.

This statement is incorrect.

 

[70sDinosaur]

If we come back from the break and it all turns to shit, will only need to slightly rearrange the words in the thread title to say "bye at the optimism".

 

[Port01]

I'm optimistic to the extent that I can't see us playing any worse.
Whether we can be better or not in the second half of the season is to be seen.
We have very low confidence moving the ball forward.

 

[Cos]

I'm in the "wait and see" category. Very worried about our slow starts; only been in front in 3 games at half time. 33% ain't going to cut it over the full season. And yes, 6-3 is nice, but Jared Polec doesn't goal keep against Brisbane and we're 5-4. And we did everything to throw away what should have been a solid win against the Crows, instead relying on a last minute miracle. So we could have been 4-5.

I'm also very worried about the free kick count. We're down nearly 30 on the season so far and we've only been in front 3 times and level once. Whether we're getting ripped off or not, its something that the club needs to address soon. Maybe Kenny needs to been at a particular coffee shop next Monday.

Still not convinced that Kenny has a plan B when things aren't going well. And still not convinced that we really know how to stay cool when things get tight at the end of a game.

I'd love nothing more than us to come out after the bye and dominate, but I'm not convinced we have the consistency to do that. Still very bitter about the way we rolled over against Essendon and Geelong.

Put Charlie at full forward permanently, leave Robbie next to him permanently and then maybe we can have some consistent forward targets.

 

[PAFC66]

Hope Marshall is back against Hawks. He is by far our best key foward at the moment. I really want to see us put Hawks to the sword in Tassy.

 

[Canoogs]

The one that grinds my grundies is,

"You'd have taken 6-3 at the start of the year"

Had we not shat out the usual Keystone Cops performance against a pooey Essendon and woefully undermanned Geelong we could've been 8-1.

Those are games we should be winning at this point in the process and will be the difference between home Prelims and second week exits.

I don't think that's the point. There's a lot of binary thinking - we're either bad or we're good. Last year the very valid criticism was that we couldn't beat any of the good sides. We're doing that, and to me that represents a big tick. I don't think being optimistic is suggesting we're perfect; of course we're not, otherwise we wouldn't be wildly inconsistent, or go off the boil for half a quarter at least once a game. It is, however, suggesting that we're hopeful that these things can be fixed over the next few months, and we can be competitive at the time that it counts.

Or we might continue to have key injuries and drop games we should win, and waste another year.

 

[jakey]

I see no evidence we've changed from last year. Flaky goal kicking, wasteful conversion of forward entries, lengthy stretches of playing like a bottom 10 side mitigated by unsustainable bouts of God mode. We've played about 10.5 putrid quarters of footy in the last 12. Until I see something coherent for 4 quarters against genuine opposition, I firmly expect this mob to achieve nothing of note.

And I'm an optimist, by leaning

 

[rubberman]

 

[Schulzenfest]

If we come back from the break and it all turns to shit, will only need to slightly rearrange the words in the thread title to say "bye at the optimism".

Should’ve just named the thread ‘bye optimism’, then it could’ve worked either way.

 

[TeeKray]

On what basis are Melbourne ‘clearly better than us’? Because of their downhill skiing trip over the bottom 4 this past month? You’ve also listed two teams with whom we’re even in W/L and who we’ve beaten in the head to head matchup as ‘clearly better than us’, which, carn.

ATM Richmond and West Coast are the two clear standout teams in the competition, but we’ve shown just as much if not more than anyone else. And now that we’ve got a fit Ryder, Rockliff and SPP back there’s good reason to be optimistic.

You've acknowledged yourself that Richmond and West Coast are standouts and are ahead of anything we've shown.

Sydney and Adelaide have been strong teams for many years now. They have finished top 4, won finals, made grand finals - things that our current team has not been able to do.

Melbourne I admit are a dubious one but I like them and picked them to win the flag pre season so I've nailed my flag to that mast for now

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Official Ranking of Remaining Games in degree of difficulty:

Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
West Coast (Adelaide Oval)
Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) - definitely the better team right now, but this is gonna be 23 vs 22 guaranteed
Essendon (Adelaide Oval) - watch them not win another game til they play us, then come out like it's 2000 all over again
Richmond (Adelaide Oval)
Collingwood (MCG)
GWS (Adelaide Oval) - heavily determined on who they have back
Fremantle (Optus)
Hawks (Tasmania) - only difficult due to location
Bulldogs (Mars)
Carlton (MCG) - only difficult due to assured 50 - 2 charity free kick count
Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval)
St Kilda (Adelaide Oval)

 

[EskimoPAFC]

At this stage I think West Coast, Richmond, Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne are clearly better than us. I see us in the bracket with Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS and North fighting for spots 6-11.

You've acknowledged yourself that Richmond and West Coast are standouts and are ahead of anything we've shown.

We lost to West Coast in Perth at a ground we had never played or trained at, with key outs and disruptions, playing no inside mids, a 30-13 free kick count, and Robbie Gray taking a mark inside 50 off a 30 odd metre kick and getting called "Not 15!". They have been very, very good so far but I'm not reading much in to that game until I watch the return game in Adelaide.

Richmond have won 1 more game than us. Out of their 7 wins, SIX have come at the MCG, against Carlton, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood and Fremantle. Their only win away from the MCG so far was when they had to travel to Etihad to play Norf and they only got across the line by 10 points. So far this season they have played good teams away from Melbourne twice and have lost by 36 and 47 points. Again, they have been very, very good but I'm not convinced they are out of the pack.

GWS and Geelong in particular have been decimated by outs. I'd have both of those teams in that top group at full strength.

I'm just not convinced that at this stage in round 9 there is a clear standout or that we can't compete with anyone. All that matters is which of those 8 or 9 teams can get right over the next few months and peak in September.

 

[GremioPower]

The one that grinds my grundies is,

"You'd have taken 6-3 at the start of the year"

Had we not shat out the usual Keystone Cops performance against a pooey Essendon and woefully undermanned Geelong we could've been 8-1.

Those are games we should be winning at this point in the process and will be the difference between home Prelims and second week exits.

Since we are at it, let's include the game against the Eagles (they lost to Sydney in Perth, and we beat the Swans away, right?!), and make it a round 9-0. That we are only 6-3 is really disappointing.

Sarcasm or not, this is gross.

Let's set a standard and live up to expectations for once.

Tribey, my expectation was 4-5. There is no way we could possibly be 8-1 with the changes in strategy we've made in the offseason. We are struggling to adjust as I expected. I may be wrong with my expectation, but it hasn't looked like so far. I even readjusted my expectation for the next game due the injuries and suspensions we've had. Our team hasn't gelled yet.

I may have been gross on the form, I'm sorry if that was the case, but the point was making seems to stand. Setting a standard is ok, but it needs to be within the realm of actual possibility. Otherwise, I should aim at absolute perfection; in this case, a 9-0 record.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Meh I expected Ryder to play all 9 games, but pre-season I would have locked in a loss to Essendon and considered the other 8 games gettable. Probably would have expected/hoped for 7-2 losing to Essendon and Adelaide, but realistically thinking there was a chance we might just drop the Norf or Cats games too so 6-7 wins dependent on those two.