Preview Our finals chances

[Niximus]

Doing the ladder predictor I unfortunately still have us missing finals. While that is the likely outcome, there is still a slim chance that we could slip in.

Realistically, 2 remaining spots in the 8 are being fought for by 4 teams.

My ladder ends up:

7 - North (14-8)
8 - GCS (14-8)
9 - Adelaide (12-10)
10 - Essendon (11-11)

North
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Win
v Geelong (home) Loss
v GWS (away) Win
v Bulldogs (home) Win
v Adelaide (home) Win
v Melbourne (home) Win

GCS
v Collingwood (home) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Brisbane (away) Win
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Win
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Essendon (away) Win
v West Coast (home) Win

Adelaide
v GWS (away) Win
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v West Coast (home) Win
v Brisbane (away) Win
v Richmond (home) Win
v North Melbourne (away) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win

Essendon
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Sydney (away) Loss
v Richmond (home) Win
v West Coast (home) Win
v Gold Coast (home) Loss
v Carlton (away) Win


So what do we need to do? Well, with the above as the expected baseline, we need to make up at least +2 against North or GC (+1 when they lose a 'win', or we win a 'loss', -1 when they win a 'loss, or we lose a 'win').

Round 22 is shaping as extremely important with the 4 teams playing among themselves. A win there for us and we +1 ourselves while -1 to NM, likewise if the Bombers get up over GC.

 

[Damp Squarie]

Except you have us down for a loss against Hawthorn...bad stuff...we will cream them

 

[Hell Boy6669]

Except you have us down for a loss against Hawthorn...bad stuff...we will cream them

True, but we will lose to GWS this week so it evens out

 

[ruscy002]

This from the non-Crows discussion thread:

Should only need 5 more wins;

GWS away
Richmond home
WCE home
Bris away
Saints home

Lose any of those and we don't deserve it.

One win against;

Hawks home
Pies away
Roos away

Will make 13 and some insurance.

Win 2 and we might sneak into home final territory

 

[Niximus]

Except you have us down for a loss against Hawthorn...bad stuff...we will cream them

I hope so! The tips are IMO who the bookies will favour, but a +1 there would be ideal.

 

[The Kedge]

If we win all the games we should (unlikely) our season will come down to north game in round 22.

 

[Niximus]

This from the non-Crows discussion thread:

I don't agree with that. Winning 5 more might get us in, but we'd need to rely on a couple of upsets to do it.

We could still miss with 6. Need 7 to lock it in.

 

[ruscy002]

Doing the ladder predictor I unfortunately still have us missing finals. While that is the likely outcome, there is still a slim chance that we could slip in.

Realistically, 2 remaining spots in the 8 are being fought for by 4 teams.

My ladder ends up:

7 - North (14-8)
8 - GCS (14-8)
9 - Adelaide (12-10)
10 - Essendon (11-11)

North
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Win
v Geelong (home) Loss
v GWS (away) Win
v Bulldogs (home) Win
v Adelaide (home) Win
v Melbourne (home) Win

GCS
v Collingwood (home) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Brisbane (away) Win
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Win
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Essendon (away) Win
v West Coast (home) Win

Adelaide
v GWS (away) Win
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v West Coast (home) Win
v Brisbane (away) Win
v Richmond (home) Win
v North Melbourne (away) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win

Essendon
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Sydney (away) Loss
v Richmond (home) Win
v West Coast (home) Win
v Gold Coast (home) Loss
v Carlton (away) Win


So what do we need to do? Well, with the above as the expected baseline, we need to make up at least +2 against North or GC (+1 when they lose a 'win', or we win a 'loss', -1 when they win a 'loss, or we lose a 'win').

Round 22 is shaping as extremely important with the 4 teams playing among themselves. A win there for us and we +1 ourselves while -1 to NM, likewise if the Bombers get up over GC.

I think Gold Coast will lose momentum and drop more games than you'd expect them to given current form.

And you haven't factored just how erratic North are, absolutely no way they'll win six out of eight games.

 

[thebeedee]

I think you are giving Gold Coast to much credit. Their away form is patchy at best. Of their away games against Bulldogs, Carlton and Essendon, I would only pencil in Bulldogs as a W. I am assuming that all of them will be at Etihad so that does make their chances slightly better.

North just lost to Brisbane, no way will they win 6 of 8.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Do a rain dance.

If it rained every week, we'd be a 5 goal better side. Seriously.

 

[JP Sauce]

North will beat Hawthorn and Geelong but lose to Carlton and GWS because that's how they roll.

 

[1990crow]

Confident right now we will be 7th or 8th first week of finals.

 

[radiojake]

Let's wait and see which team turns up against GWS next week before we worry about things like finals...

 

[Danoz]

I actually just did the same thing, came to the board to post something similar. My table came out differently though.

My ladder ends up:

7 - North (14-8)
8 - Adelaide (12-10)
9 - GCS (11-11)
10 - Essendon (11-11)

North
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Win
v Geelong (home) Loss
v GWS (away) Win
v Bulldogs (home) Win
v Adelaide (home) Win
v Melbourne (home) Win

GCS
v Collingwood (home) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Brisbane (away) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win
v Carlton (away) Loss
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Essendon (away) Loss
v West Coast (home) Win

Adelaide
v GWS (away) Win
v Hawthorn (home) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v West Coast (home) Win
v Brisbane (away) Win
v Richmond (home) Win
v North Melbourne (away) Loss
v St Kilda (home) Win

Essendon
v Port Power (away) Loss
v Collingwood (away) Loss
v Bulldogs (away) Win
v Sydney (away) Loss
v Richmond (home) Win
v West Coast (home) Win
v Gold Coast (home) Loss
v Carlton (away) Win

We really are hoping for a late season fade out from GCS, but if we can pick up one of the Pies or Roos games, all of course win all the games we're supposed to, we'll make the bottom part. But then our opponent is likely to be one of Geelong, Sydney or Collingwood.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Haven't any of you dickbrains learned your lesson with threads like this?

 

[Niximus]

Haven't any of you dickbrains learned your lesson with threads like this?

Seriously? We can't have a thread to discuss our chances of making the 8? Considering I tipped us to miss finals, I hope it does backfire!

 

[Bring back Bas]

I love this time of the year! It makes games except for just those invloving Adelaide exciting.

Does anyone else think Collingwood aren't a sure thing to make the 8?

 

[betterthanu]

I did the ladder predictor also and my version had us either 9th or 5th depending on whether we beat collingwood or not. We can win every game bar 2 from here on out and still miss finals. GC with a very easy run home.

 

[Mattrox]

Do a rain dance.

If it rained every week, we'd be a 5 goal better side. Seriously.

I'll have "things rarely said by Crow's supporters for $1000 Alex"

 

[little graham]

We won't lose at home for the rest of the year.

 

[little graham]

Except you have us down for a loss against Hawthorn...bad stuff...we will cream them

There's also two Collingwoods.

 

[Roo Lives Again]

Gold Coast will beat the Pies this weekend and with 50k supporters cheering the boys on we'll beat the Hawks.

The Pies and Roos away games will determine if we get there

 

[Glenno23]

We won't lose at home for the rest of the year.

Bwahahahaha

We aint that good to making calls like that!

I think the thread idea is fine in general, but doing any sort of predictor this far out is ludicrous. Happy to discuss our chances (slim)

How many weeks to you get every tip right? maybe once or twice a year tops, no way is it as black and white as some make it out to be

 

[little graham]

Bwahahahaha

We aint that good to making calls like that!

I think the thread idea is fine in general, but doing any sort of predictor this far out is ludicrous. Happy to discuss our chances (slim)

How many weeks to you get every tip right? maybe once or twice a year tops, no way is it as black and white as some make it out to be

Every week we play at home, we're playing better. For the first time in years we're kicking crowd goals.I have not seen us like this at home games, since the 90's.

If you want to bet....

 

[Coopers]

Where were we playing when we lost to Melbourne again?

That's the one baby, the one that means no finals.