Our last 100 games

[Hawkas1988]

Agree that Geelong were definitely better, would argue that we were better than Collingwood though.

Collingwood really fell away in the last month and a bit that year. Early to mid year they were clearly the best team. They smashed us around round 14 or so, they were on another level to us. We should have beat them in the prelim, however they were clearly a better team for the majority of the year.

 

[threesixpio]

Hawthorn's record against all clubs save Geelong is 78/89 (or 87.64%)

Also worth raising that of the 6 clubs we have won the fewest flags during our run...

1. Geelong won 3 flags (07, 09, 11)
2. Collingwood won 4 flags (27-30)
3. Melbourne won 4 flags (55-57, 59 and on their way to 60)
4. Hawthorn won 3 flags (86, 88-89)
5. Carlton won 3 flags (06-08)
6. Hawthorn have won 2 flags (13-14)

Just shows that we probably should have snared a 3rd flag in 2011 or 2012...

Might also show that Cats should have gone B2B

 

[threesixpio]

In '11 there were two teams clearly better than us (Coll, Geel). '12 was the one that got away.

In '11 there were two teams clearly better than us (Coll, Geel). '12 was the one that got away.

Made 14 all the sweeter though

 

[WWSD]

In '11 there were two teams clearly better than us (Coll, Geel). '12 was the one that got away.

In 2012 we averaged a massive 121.77 points per game during the home and away season. It was the second highest scoring average by a team in a season since Essendon in 2000 when they averaged 128 points per game.

 

[WWSD]

Our average points for over the years (including finals)

2008: 111.76 (ranked #2)
2011: 104.36 (ranked #3)
2012: 119.68 (ranked #1)
2013: 112.28 (ranked #1)
2014: 111.84 (ranked #1)

 

[Davo23]

Our average points for over the years (including finals)

2008: 111.76 (ranked #2)
2011: 104.36 (ranked #3)
2012: 119.68 (ranked #1)
2013: 112.28 (ranked #1)
2014: 111.84 (ranked #1)

This is one of the stats I've enjoyed most about the Clarkson Era, and you have to now call it an Era.

The emphasis is on playing attacking, high-scoring football, a game-style that is attractive and enjoyable to watch, based on strong, rebounding defence. Of course, it doesn't hurt that you have a team full of brilliant footballers, but when you aim to win by outscoring the opposition rather than just them shutting down, the whole game is improved.

As opposed to the Paul Roos' method of ugly shut-down football, taken up by his disciples Lyon and Longmire.

.

 

[WWSD]

This is one of the stats I've enjoyed most about the Clarkson Era, and you have to now call it an Era.

The emphasis is on playing attacking, high-scoring football, a game-style that is attractive and enjoyable to watch, based on strong, rebounding defence. Of course, it doesn't hurt that you have a team full of brilliant footballers, but when you aim to win by outscoring the opposition rather than just them shutting down, the whole game is improved.

As opposed to the Paul Roos' method of ugly shut-down football, taken up by his disciples Lyon and Longmire.

.

Having a strong defense is also a key to success, but there's a saying that a strong offensive will always beat a strong defense. Like beating Geelong, Fremantle and Sydney during our last three flags. All three teams had a good defense but a poor offensive game-plan.

 

[Big A]

Having a strong defense is also a key to success, but there's a saying that a strong offensive will always beat a strong defense. Like beating Geelong, Fremantle and Sydney during our last three flags. All three teams had a good defense but a poor offensive game-plan.

I always thought it was the other way around, that a defensively strong team will always beat an equally strong attacking team, especially in grannies. Being an incredibly attacking team and playing a beautiful brand of footy is what makes our achievements even greater

 

[TyHawk]

2012 was an awesome year till the GF! Didn't think we would lose to anyone and in most games it was about ' by how much?' Our average of 120 points per game is even more impressive considering we weren't much chop until Round 10!!! Sewell, Sammy, Bud were in career best form in that time.

 

[Hawkk]

From the Richmond game up until the Hawkins game (so about 8 weeks) that was basically the most destructive football I have ever seen

 

[Procrastinator35]

Hawthorn's record against all clubs save Geelong is 78/89 (or 87.64%)

Also worth raising that of the 6 clubs we have won the fewest flags during our run...

1. Geelong won 3 flags (07, 09, 11)
2. Collingwood won 4 flags (27-30)
3. Melbourne won 4 flags (55-57, 59 and on their way to 60)
4. Hawthorn won 3 flags (86, 88-89)
5. Carlton won 3 flags (06-08)
6. Hawthorn have won 2 flags (13-14)

Just shows that we probably should have snared a 3rd flag in 2011 or 2012...

So are you saying that our current Run is over Hawkk ???....As Agent Smith has noted, we have ample opportunity in the near future to rectify said disparity!

Our premiership conversion rate of 12/18 grand finals is also excellent & 2nd only to the Demons across the entire competition & in the History of VFL/AFL footy.

Also, we have converted 6 of our 9 Minor Premierships into Flags, which is an excellent percentage!....Especially when considering that we've converted a further 6 out of 10 second placings into Premierships.

Of our 32 Finals appearances, & 24 Top 4 finishes, we've finished;

1st: 12 Times
2nd: 6 Times
3rd/4th: 5 Times

So,....Out of 32 times in reaching the finals, we have made it to at least the Preliminary Final week on 23 Occasions, after having finished in the top 4, 24 times.....Any other club would kill for that record!....We have never been knocked out in straight sets in a finals series ever!

Our Grand Final percentage conversion rate of 66.66% is Elite.....Our Finals conversion rate also sits at an elite 64%.....When we have a good season, we inevitably make it count & salute at a whopping 50% of the time when finishing Top 4!....Most clubs would be lucky to convert at a 25% rate in similar circumstances.

 

[seysearles]

As at currently stands OP Spangher has the best win/loss record as a Hawk.

18 wins - 1 loss

.... 12 disciples and 1 resurrection.

 

[Hawkk]

So are you saying that our current Run is over Hawkk ???....As Agent Smith has noted, we have ample opportunity in the near future to rectify said disparity!

Our premiership conversion rate of 12/18 grand finals is also excellent & 2nd only to the Demons across the entire competition & in the History of VFL/AFL footy.

Also, we have converted 6 of our 9 Minor Premierships into Flags, which is an excellent percentage!....Especially when considering that we've converted a further 6 out of 10 second placings into Premierships.

Of our 32 Finals appearances, & 24 Top 4 finishes, we've finished;

1st: 12 Times
2nd: 6 Times
3rd/4th: 5 Times

So,....Out of 32 times in reaching the finals, we have made it to at least the Preliminary Final week on 23 Occasions, after having finished in the top 4, 24 times.....Any other club would kill for that record!....We have never been knocked out in straight sets in a finals series ever!

Our Grand Final percentage conversion rate of 66.66% is Elite.....Our Finals conversion rate also sits at an elite 64%.....When we have a good season, we inevitably make it count & salute at a whopping 50% of the time when finishing Top 4!....Most clubs would be lucky to convert at a 25% rate in similar circumstances.

Lifted from a few months back...

Another favourable record...

Hawthorn has the best strike rate of making GF's and winning flags against finals series qualified...

Hawthorn 32 finals series, 12 flags (37.5%) and 18 GF's (56.5%)

The next best are...

Melbourne 36 finals series, 12 flags (33%) and 17 GF's (47.22%)
Brisbane 10 finals series, 3 flags (30%) and 4 GF's (40%)

Compared to...

Essendon 64 finals series, 16 flags (25%) and 29 GF's (45%)
Carlton 68 finals series, 16 flags (23.3%) and 30 GF's (44%)
Collingwood 80 finals series, 15 flags (18.75%) and 43 GF's (53.75%)
Geelong 54 finals series, 9 flags (16.66%) and 18 GF's (33.33%)
Sydney 40 finals series, 5 flags (12.5%) and 16 GF's (40%)

When we make it we strike better than any other club (an amazing record considering that the post 1972 finals record has facilitated a lower strike rate once clubs make the finals)

We can say with more qualification more than any other that we are the preeminent winningest club

...and our most hated clubs have the worse record save St Kilda, Fremantle and the W Bulldogs epic fail

With respect to the three peat if we qualify for the top 4 history suggests that we are just as much a show as any other...

...and

Better than that, if you split the VFL/AFL into 5 definitive eras (according to their finals series):

Final 4 (1897-1971*)
Final 5 (1972-1989)
Final 6 (1990-1994)
Final 8 Rev 1 (1995-1999)
Final 8 Rev 2 (2000-2014)

You get...

Club        Final 4        Final 5        Final 6        Final 8 Rev 1    Final 8 Rev 2/Top 4
Hawthorn     4 (2-1)        15 (6-4)    5 (1-0)        1 (0-0)        9/5 (3-1) 
Brisbane     N/A             -              -          4 (0-0)        6/4 (3-1)
Melbourne    23 (12-3)       3 (0-1)    3 (0-0)        2 (0-0)        5/1 (0-1)
Richmond     25 (7-11)       7 (3-1)        -          1 (0-0)        3/1 (0-0)
Essendon     38 (10-11)     10 (2-1)    3 (1-1)        4 (0-0)        9/2 (1-1)
Carlton      40 (10-9)      15 (5-2)    4 (0-1)        3 (1-1)        6/1 (0-0)
Collingwood  55 (13-19)     12 (0-4)    3 (1-0)        -              10/6 (1-3)
Geelong      30 (6-5)        5 (0-1)    4 (0-2)        4 (0-1)        11/8 (3-1)
Sydney       21 (3-12)       3 (0-0)        -          4 (0-1)        12/6 (2-2)

Rough estimates but based on the following:
Final 4 – To win (25%), to make GF (50%)
Final 5 – To win (20%), to make GF (40%)
Final 6 – To win (16.5%), to make GF (33%)
Final 8 Rev 1 – To win (12.5%), to make GF (25%)
Final 8 Rev 2 - To win from inside Top 4 (16.5%), to make GF (33%)
Final 8 Rev 2 - To win from outside Top 4 (8.25%), to make GF (16.50%)

Actual success over probability of success (based on finals series contested)
Brisbane Lions 3 / 1.325 = 2.2641 premiership success, 4 / 2.55 = 1.5686 GF’s contested
Hawthorn 12 / 6.045 = 1.985 premiership success, 18 / 12.09 = 1.488 GF’s contested
Melbourne 12 / 7.59 = 1.5810 premiership success, 17 / 15.18 = 1.119 GF’s contested
Richmond 10 / 8.105 = 1.233 premiership success, 22 / 16.21 = 1.3571 GF’s contested
Carlton 16 / 14.6125 = 1.0949 premiership success, 30 / 29.225 = 1.0265 GF’s contested
Essendon 14* / 13.4 = 1.0447 premiership success, 28 / 26.805 = 1.04458 GF’s contested
Collingwood 15 / 17.965 = 0.8349 premiership success, 43 / 35.93 = 1.1967 GF’s contested
Geelong 9 / 11.2275 = 0.8016 premiership success, 18 / 22.455 = 0.8016 GF’s contested
Sydney 5 / 7.835 = 0.6381 premiership success, 16 / 15.67 = 1.0210 GF’s contested

*1897 and 1924 both had a round robin finals series and have not been included…

It would take another 2 flags from successive top 4 campaigns or for the Lions to miss out on a premiership in the next 2 top 4 campaigns that they make for us to take our rightful place atop the probability of success from finals series contested ladder!

Probably should add this to the Hawthorn historic thread at some point!

We've qualified for the GF in almost 60% of all finals series that we've participated in...

How does that compare to a few others?

North Melbourne have qualified for 30 finals series, 4 flags (13.33%) and 9 GF's (30%)
W Bulldogs have qualified for 24 finals series, 1 flag (4.16%) and 2 GF's (8.33%)
St Kilda have qualified for 26 finals series, 1 flag (3.84%) and 8 GF's (30%)

In fact if you look at PF's our 24 PF's stack up against 19 for NM and 11 for WB and yet have qualified for far more GF's and of course won more flags

 

[stemline]

Percentage of times clubs turn 'making the finals' into 'winning the premiership':

Haw 37.5%
Melb 31.6%
Bris 30.0%
Rich 27.8%
Fitz 27.6%
Ess 25.0%
Carl 23.5%
Coll 18.3%
Adel 16.7%
Geel 16.1%
Nth 13.3%
Syd 12.5%
Port 11.1%
WC 15.8%
WB 4.2%
StK 3.8%

 

[stemline]

Percentage of times clubs turn 'making the finals' into 'making the Grand Final'':

Rich 61.1%
Haw 56.3%
Coll 50.0%
Ess 46.9%
Fitz 44.8%
Melb 44.7%
Carl 42.6%
Bris 40.0%
Syd 40.0%
Geel 32.1%
Nth 30.0%
StK 26.9%
WC 26.3%
Port 22.2%
Adel 16.7%
Frem 16.7%
WB 8.3%

 

[Argy]

Percentage of times clubs turn 'making the finals' into 'making the Grand Final'':

Rich 61.1%
Haw 56.3%
Coll 50.0%
Ess 46.9%
Fitz 44.8%
Melb 44.7%
Carl 42.6%
Bris 40.0%
Syd 40.0%
Geel 32.1%
Nth 30.0%
StK 26.9%
WC 26.3%
Port 22.2%
Adel 16.7%
Frem 16.7%
WB 8.3%

Great stats.

 

[Hawkk]

The % of times clubs turn 'make the finals' into GF performance is heavily slanted towards clubs that were successful in the old 'final 4' days (pre 1972)

For example, since 1972 (when the VFL brought in the old final 5) it has been much more difficult to make the GF through merely qualifying for finals...

Hawthorn - 53.57% (15/28)
Richmond - 45.45% (5/11)
Brisbane - 40% (4/10)
Carlton - 38.46% (10/26)
Geelong - 36.36% (8/22)
Collingwood - 36% (9/25)
North Melbourne - 32% (8/25)
Essendon - 28% (7/25)
Sydney Swans - 26.31% (5/19)
West Coast - 26.31% (5/19)
Port Adelaide - 25% (2/8)
St Kilda - 21.42% (3/14)
Fremantle - 20% (1/5)
Adelaide - 18.18% (2/11)
Melbourne - 16.66% (2/12)
Fitzroy - N/A (0/4)
W Bulldogs - N/A (0/14)
Gold Coast / GWS - N/A (0/0)

 

[Gunstall555]

Percentage of times clubs turn 'making the finals' into 'winning the premiership':

Rich 27.8%

Percentage of times clubs turn 'making the finals' into 'making the Grand Final'':

Rich 61.1%

How GF's have Richmond lost?????

 

[Procrastinator35]

How GF's have Richmond lost?????

Not as many as Collingwood!

Collingwood: Played 43 Won 15, Lost 26....35% winning record.
Richmond: Played 22 Won 10, Lost 12....45% winning record.

 

[Hawkk]

How GF's have Richmond lost?????

12.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_Football_League_premiers#Premiership_frequency

10 flags from 22 GF's.

They are also probably the only club that has a negative win-loss record in GF's against Collingwood, having won 2 + lost 4 (including three-in-a-row)

 

[moginie]

The % of times clubs turn 'make the finals' into GF performance is heavily slanted towards clubs that were successful in the old 'final 4' days (pre 1972)

For example, since 1972 (when the VFL brought in the old final 5) it has been much more difficult to make the GF through merely qualifying for finals...

Hawthorn - 53.57% (15/28)
Richmond - 45.45% (5/11)
Brisbane - 40% (4/10)
Carlton - 38.46% (10/26)
Geelong - 36.36% (8/22)
Collingwood - 36% (9/25)
North Melbourne - 32% (8/25)
Essendon - 28% (7/25)
Sydney Swans - 26.31% (5/19)
West Coast - 26.31% (5/19)
Port Adelaide - 25% (2/8)
St Kilda - 21.42% (3/14)
Fremantle - 20% (1/5)
Adelaide - 18.18% (2/11)
Melbourne - 16.66% (2/12)
Fitzroy - N/A (0/4)
W Bulldogs - N/A (0/14)
Gold Coast / GWS - N/A (0/0)

That's a mightily imposing stat there.

 

[Sixpence]

So Richmond are reasonably successful for turning finals appearances into Premierships? If only they could make finals ...

 

[HomerJayS]

...

Amazingly in 2014 we only scored more behinds than goals once, in the rd 5 los to Geelong.

The Buddy factor

 

[Brishawk]

I always thought it was the other way around, that a defensively strong team will always beat an equally strong attacking team, especially in grannies. Being an incredibly attacking team and playing a beautiful brand of footy is what makes our achievements even greater

ITs not easy to see because the scale of the x and y axis are different but the max barry squiggle has a clear bias towards attacking teams winning flags.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2014.html#tips

 

[Big A]

ITs not easy to see because the scale of the x and y axis are different but the max barry squiggle has a clear bias towards attacking teams winning flags.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2014.html#tips

Ok there goes my theory of defence-first wins premierships.
Ill gladly take the squiggle's gospel as being true and no better time than now with us being an attacking splendour force