Performance by Top-4 teams since 1994

[Hobbes]

In response to a request, a statistical assessment of finals performance by teams that end the minor round in the top four.

I assess the outcomes as:

1-2: Premiership=1, Losing GF=0, Losing Prelim=-1, Out in straight sets -2.
3-4: Premiership=2, Losing GF=1, Losing Prelim=0, Out in straight sets -1.

The net score over the 31 seasons of 8-teams finals (from 1994) is 3, so the average is very close to zero.

This does not take into account teams in the 5-8 range, including one premier and at least one other grand finalist.

Adelaide: 6 appearances, total -1
Brisbane: 10 appearances, total -1
Carlton: 3 appearances, total -2
Collingwood: 10 appearances, total +4. Have never done worse than expectations, but have also never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
Essendon: 4 appearances, 0.
Fremantle: 4 appearances, -1.
Geelong: 18 appearances, -2. Have never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
GWS: 3 appearances, -1
Hawthorn: 8 appearances, +3
Melbourne: 5 appearances, -1
North Melbourne: 6 appearances, +2
Port Adelaide: 9 apperances. -6. Rarely even match expectations.
Richmond: 6 appearances, +5. Three premierships from third place.
St Kilda: 6 apperances, +1. Usually exactly conform to expectations, never worse.
Sydney: 12 appearances, +4. Helped by two premierships from third.
West Coast: 8 apperances, +1.
Western Bulldogs: 6 appearances, -2. Never better than expected.

The stars here:

Richmond: +5 (6)
Collingwood: +4 (10)
Sydney: +4 (12)
Hawthorn: +3 (8)

and the flops:

Port Adelaide: -6 (9)
Carlton: -2 (3)
Western Bulldogs: -2 (6)
Geelong: -2 (18)

 

[deck]

Aren't the Crows the only team to win it from 4th?

 

[Mr Meow]

In response to a request, a statistical assessment of finals performance by teams that end the minor round in the top four.

I assess the outcomes as:

1-2: Premiership=1, Losing GF=0, Losing Prelim=-1, Out in straight sets -2.
3-4: Premiership=2, Losing GF=1, Losing Prelim=0, Out in straight sets -1.

The net score over the 31 seasons of 8-teams finals (from 1994) is 3, so the average is very close to zero.

This does not take into account teams in the 5-8 range, including one premier and at least one other grand finalist.

Adelaide: 6 appearances, total -1
Brisbane: 10 appearances, total -1
Carlton: 3 appearances, total -2
Collingwood: 10 appearances, total +4. Have never done worse than expectations, but have also never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
Essendon: 4 appearances, 0.
Fremantle: 4 appearances, -1.
Geelong: 18 appearances, -2. Have never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
GWS: 3 appearances, -1
Hawthorn: 8 appearances, +3
Melbourne: 5 appearances, -1
North Melbourne: 6 appearances, +2
Port Adelaide: 9 apperances. -6. Rarely even match expectations.
Richmond: 6 appearances, +5. Three premierships from third place.
St Kilda: 6 apperances, +1. Usually exactly conform to expectations, never worse.
Sydney: 12 appearances, +4. Helped by two premierships from third.
West Coast: 8 apperances, +1.
Western Bulldogs: 6 appearances, -2. Never better than expected.

The stars here:

Richmond: +5 (6)
Collingwood: +4 (10)
Sydney: +4 (12)
Hawthorn: +3 (8)

and the flops:

Port Adelaide: -6 (9)
Carlton: -2 (3)
Western Bulldogs: -2 (6)
Geelong: -2 (18)

This is awesome work, cheers.

Geelong has lost a few prelims from top 2. The only thing I'd balance that out with, is that a few of these seasons have involved QF or PFs against MCG tenants. I don't really consider that underperformance, whereas I do for "home" finals like against Sydney 2016 PF or Brisbane 2024 PF.

You're right that when Geelong finish 3rd-4th we just meet finals expectations - we've never "snatched one".

The stars are expected besides Sydney. Despite those two flags from unfancied positions, getting belted in 3 of 4 consecutive grand finals (and losing the other) from top 2 (usually 1st) feels like it should be marked harsher.

Collingwood defy conventional wisdom a bit. Possibly just from losing a few at home they should have won based on H&A performance (2011 GF, 2018 GF, 2019 PF).

 

[NetworkNerd]

Carlton with 3 top 4 appearances didnt seem right... but forgot they didnt make top 4 in 1999

 

[Mr.X]

Aren't the Crows the only team to win it from 4th?

Believe so, they took their chances against both saints and Roos.

Saints were never really going to win in 97 and nth kicked the game away

 

[Defabs]

Pies haven’t gone out in straight sets since 1988. Pies have made the top 4 10 times (11 inc 2025) since 2002 and have always won at least 1 final. They may not win too many premierships in the modern era but they generally go deep

 

[Pie thon]

As mentioned pies have not won a flag from 3rd or 4th. EVER. 11 from 1st, 5 from 2nd. A trend going slightly above expectation for 120 odd years, not since 1994. Hence why so many lost GFs from 3rd & 4th placed finishes. Poor late season form in 2002 (13 wins), and 2019 for 4th. Close win kings of 2022 (4th) expected to get smashed in finals. The 120 year narrative constantly prevails. This trend is almost 100 years stronger than 1994 for Collingwood.
For bonus, I'll throw in 2007, from 6th won a SF in Perth in extra time then lost to powerhouse Geelong by 5 points the next week.
So Australia, when you are annoyed as always that Collingwood find finals form and make a PF and/or GF. It will turn to joy when it ends in another close losing PF/GF. The true 128 year colliwobbles curse.