Perth housing crash

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VineyIsLORD said:
Are you completely unfamiliar with how loans work? There is always risk that the person you lend to wont pay it back, its part of doing business.

The banks just havent had to worry about it lately because the governments keep bailing them out for their shitty investments.
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Well if governments don't bail them out then the depositors are up s**t creek. And it is not possible to opt out of the banking system - not if you want to get paid/ collect welfare benefits.
 
Crankyhawk said:
Well if governments don't bail them out then the depositors are up s**t creek. And it is not possible to opt out of the banking system - not if you want to get paid/ collect welfare benefits.
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I agree but if their losses are socialised their profits should be socialised as well. Its a monopoly and basic necessitty and belongs in the hands of the people. Competition has not occurred and we pay the most expensive bank fees in the world.
 

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Expect to see an article a week saying that prices have bottomed. Industry folks will do whatever they can to encourage people into the market.

The truth is, things are pretty dire.

I'll give you two examples:

Firstly, inflation data came out yesterday and WA had the 2nd slowest inflation level in the nation over the previous quarter and year.

Secondly, Commsec's "State of the States" has moved WA into last place.

Actually, the "State of the States" has some interesting tidbits. For example it points out that WA's dwelling stats are down 18.7% on their decade average (2nd worst of the states after NT), does that sound like an industry that's confident of a turnaround in prices?

Then there's corelogic's September quarter's home prices at -2.9% in WA.
 
I knocked back this beauty in Mt Hawthon 20 years ago as the asking price was $110,000

https://www.realestate.com.au/property/95-sasse-ave-mount-hawthorn-wa-6016

that's a 10-11% growth rate per annum which is high but not crazy compared to recent years in Sydney. but it does highlight how much property has increased. To make things affordable for the youth, we need a property tax which can be offset against Australian income tax to curb the impact of foreign investment in the sector.

Oh and my first property which was a rental apartment in Semaphore was a whopping $33k in 87.
 

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Papa G said:
I don't think it would be a stupid time to buy in Perth. A 10 year 25% decline would say to me that there will be a increase in value in the near to medium term.
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I'd wait till after the o&g platforms stop construction.

Then it will be a steep decline.
 
CakeEater said:
I'd wait till after the o&g platforms stop construction.

Then it will be a steep decline.
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Perth's median is now only $60k north of Adelaide's despite having a larger population and economy. I honestly don't think it has that much further to go. The Cubbies that have been forced out of the market are pretty much been weeded out by now?
 
Papa G said:
Perth's median is now only $60k north of Adelaide's despite having a larger population and economy. I honestly don't think it has that much further to go. The Cubbies that have been forced out of the market are pretty much been weeded out by now?
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Nope, the O& G construction is still ongoing so those cubbies have migrated offshore.
 
Yep, no harm in waiting another year or so. Market surely isn't going to boom again any time soon - not helped by the unemployment situation - so nothing lost by waiting it out some more, imo.

Tl;dr Hold, there is more poop to hit fans yet.
 
I've been in my house for over a year now and properties around my area are still selling for similar prices.

If you find one you like at a good price that you want to live in, buy it, but no rush. If you are looking for an investment property try somewhere else in Australia. And frankly, I don't mind the current housing situation in Perth, I don't want this to be Sydney 2.0.
 
I'll be trying to get into the market around October next year. Saving up for a 20% deposit for a $500,000 house plus stamp duty. Should make it or go close. I'm eying the east coast in case a market slump there migrates over.

A large deposit and the market being well below previous peak is enough security for me.

Have a specific areas I'm looking to target. Bayswater, Ashfield, Bassendean, Woodbridge.


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It's worth considering that owning a house is not necessarily the Great 'Australian' Dream we've always been conditioned to think is the case.

Taking the example above, on a 500k property if you have(or will have) a 20% deposit plus stamp duty that means you'll have at least 100k saved. That's a great effort :thumbsu:

100k is a fair bit of disposable cash - you can do a lot with that sort of money that can earn potentially way more than you could as opposed to committing to a 25-30yr mortgage, especially if the median price stagnates or worse, the arse falls out of it(not out of the realms of possibility).

I don't know the specifics of your current living situation but in the last 2 years the average median price of property in metro Perth has dropped about 40k. In that same period rent has also dropped considerably.

https://reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro/

So the short version is, from a purely fiscal sense, if you had have rented the same place for the last two years as opposed to buying it, you more than likely would have been a fair bit better off. The money saved by renting(and not paying stamp duty, conveyancy fees, rates, insurance etc) could then be used to save more or use for other things.

Of course, as already stated, I don't know the specifics of your situation and whether or not you're currently renting and/or looking to buy a place to stay in for the rest of your life/long term - or whether or not you already have a property and want to buy another etc.

Anyway, there's quite a bit of data out there to support renting over buying for the next 5 -10 years. If it booms again(highly unlikely imo), obviously buying is the better option.

Here's an interesting article that outlines a lot of the pros and cons of renting v buying :

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/11/05/comment-rent-or-buy-lets-do-sums
 
Eastern Rangers said:
I'll be trying to get into the market around October next year. Saving up for a 20% deposit for a $500,000 house plus stamp duty. Should make it or go close. I'm eying the east coast in case a market slump there migrates over.

A large deposit and the market being well below previous peak is enough security for me.

Have a specific areas I'm looking to target. Bayswater, Ashfield, Bassendean, Woodbridge.


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a good choice in terms of entry price and location
 
CakeEater said:
Nope, the O& G construction is still ongoing so those cubbies have migrated offshore.
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The flip side to that is both Rio and BHP have kicked off major feasability studies that will see new mines being built in the near future. The BHP study sees approx 350 people swallowed up through the study & early implementation phases and has been going approx 6 months. The Rio study is barely underway but is of similar magnitude.
 
twotooto said:
Yep, no harm in waiting another year or so. Market surely isn't going to boom again any time soon - not helped by the unemployment situation - so nothing lost by waiting it out some more, imo.

Tl;dr Hold, there is more poop to hit fans yet.
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That post was a year ago and the market in Perth is still very weak and trending downwards.

Would be silly to buy in Perth(my opinion of course). Can't speak for the east coast though by all accounts the arse is falling out of property prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Interesting times on the horizon.
 
twotooto said:
That post was a year ago and the market in Perth is still very weak and trending downwards.

Would be silly to buy in Perth(my opinion of course). Can't speak for the east coast though by all accounts the arse is falling out of property prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Interesting times on the horizon.
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I can see a 20 year flat line with minor ups and downs

something amazing must happen to boost wages but that's less likely than downward pressure
 
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