I've only watched a few local WA games so I have zero authority on draft prospects. While I don't particularly rate the authority of most BF phantom draft posters either, I thought it might be interested to do a spreadsheet up, collate some phantom drafts and get some statistics, averages together.
Obviously by going by just the raw rankings expressed by ‘BF Experts’ aspects like what club’s need or state preferences aren’t really considered or will be distorted, nevertheless there seems to be some interesting points.
The number in the brackets is the average pick position of the player.
30 Phantrom Drafts were used.
Slide rating is the difference between the lowest pick used on a player and the highest pick for the same player.
1. Melbourne - Tom Scully (1.2)
2. Melbourne - Jack Trengove (1.8)
3. Richmond - Dustin Martin (3.2)
4. Fremantle - Anthony Morabito (4)
5. Nth. Melbourne - Ben Cunnington (5.5)
6. Sydney - Kane Lucas (7.1)
7. Eagles - John Butcher (7.3)
8. Port Adeilade - Gary Rohan (7.5)
9. Port Adeilade - Luke Tapscott (10.4)
10. Essendon - Daniel Talia (12.7)
11. Melbourne - Koby Stevens (13.1)
12. Carlton - Lewis Jetta (13.4)
13. Adeilade - Jake Carlisle (13.8)
14. Sydney - Aaron Black (15.3)
15. Western Bulldogs - Brad Sheppard (15.6)
16. Port Adeilade - Jake Melksham (16.3)
17. Geelong - Matthew Panos (17.9)
18. Melbourne - Troy Taylor (19.9)
19. Richmond - Andrew Moore (20.7)
20. Fremantle - Ryan Bastinac (20.9)
21. Nth. Melbourne - Nathan Vardy (21.3)
22. Eagles - Ben Griffiths (21.7)
23. Eagles - Allen Christensen (21.9)
24. Essendon - Mitch Duncan (22)
25. Nth. Melbourne - Jordan Gysberts (22.3)
26. Essendon - Jack Fitzpatrick (25.6)
27. Brisbane - Travis Colyer (26.6)
28. Geelong - Nat Fyfe (28.2)
29. Adeilade - Jesse Crichton (28.2)
30. Collingwood - Roland Ah Chee (29.3)
31. Western Bulldogs - Alex Carey (30.4)
32. St. Kilda - Callum Bartlett (31.2)
33. Essendon - Andrew Hooper (32.2)
Some points;
Picks 1 to 5: The first 5 are a pretty much considered a lock by PDers. One PD had Martin and Cunnington sliding due to a Butcher pick at 3, but other than that the spread is pretty low here. Opinion amongst PD fans seems to be the 5 is locked as described.
Picks 6 to 8: seem to be considered locked in terms of players but there is variety on who will go to which club. A few of PDs had Butcher sliding down to 11, but as you can see from the averages it’s pretty close amongst these 3 picks.
Tapscott @ 9: This is the Tapscott pick with Port apparently picking whoever was left over out of Rohan, Butcher and Lucas at 8 and then using 9 on Tapscott. It’s actually an interesting pick in terms of ramifications of Port don’t pick Tapscott at 9. Some PD’s have Tapscott sliding considerably in those cases with a 16 point spread between his Min and Max placement, this is the highest out of the top 14 players.
Talia @ 10: This is a funny one, because no PD used in the data gathering has Talia going at 10 ever. People realise the bombers don’t need a KPD perhaps. Does kinda spit in the face of the best available mantra that is bandied around. Talia has the lowest slide rating out of any pick outside the top 5. PD’s are pretty confident he will go between 8 and 14.
Picks 11 - 13: Most people have Stevens going to the bombers @ 10. Jetta is an interesting one at 12. The reason his average is so good is all the PD’s that have Eagles picking him at 7 bringing his average right down. He has a slide rating/spread of 15 i.e min 7 max 22.
Highest Slide Rating: Aaron Black @ 14, Panos @ 17 and Troy Taylor @ 18. These guys have a spread of 24 and if PDers are anything to go buy, then these will be ones to watch with interest on draft day. Andrew Moore @ 19 also has a high slide rating of 23. As does Vardy @ 22.
Towards the end of the 2nd round there is less value in the data as a greater spread of players is obviously used after pick 25.
Hopefully some people find this information interesting.
Galen
Obviously by going by just the raw rankings expressed by ‘BF Experts’ aspects like what club’s need or state preferences aren’t really considered or will be distorted, nevertheless there seems to be some interesting points.
The number in the brackets is the average pick position of the player.
30 Phantrom Drafts were used.
Slide rating is the difference between the lowest pick used on a player and the highest pick for the same player.
1. Melbourne - Tom Scully (1.2)
2. Melbourne - Jack Trengove (1.8)
3. Richmond - Dustin Martin (3.2)
4. Fremantle - Anthony Morabito (4)
5. Nth. Melbourne - Ben Cunnington (5.5)
6. Sydney - Kane Lucas (7.1)
7. Eagles - John Butcher (7.3)
8. Port Adeilade - Gary Rohan (7.5)
9. Port Adeilade - Luke Tapscott (10.4)
10. Essendon - Daniel Talia (12.7)
11. Melbourne - Koby Stevens (13.1)
12. Carlton - Lewis Jetta (13.4)
13. Adeilade - Jake Carlisle (13.8)
14. Sydney - Aaron Black (15.3)
15. Western Bulldogs - Brad Sheppard (15.6)
16. Port Adeilade - Jake Melksham (16.3)
17. Geelong - Matthew Panos (17.9)
18. Melbourne - Troy Taylor (19.9)
19. Richmond - Andrew Moore (20.7)
20. Fremantle - Ryan Bastinac (20.9)
21. Nth. Melbourne - Nathan Vardy (21.3)
22. Eagles - Ben Griffiths (21.7)
23. Eagles - Allen Christensen (21.9)
24. Essendon - Mitch Duncan (22)
25. Nth. Melbourne - Jordan Gysberts (22.3)
26. Essendon - Jack Fitzpatrick (25.6)
27. Brisbane - Travis Colyer (26.6)
28. Geelong - Nat Fyfe (28.2)
29. Adeilade - Jesse Crichton (28.2)
30. Collingwood - Roland Ah Chee (29.3)
31. Western Bulldogs - Alex Carey (30.4)
32. St. Kilda - Callum Bartlett (31.2)
33. Essendon - Andrew Hooper (32.2)
Some points;
Picks 1 to 5: The first 5 are a pretty much considered a lock by PDers. One PD had Martin and Cunnington sliding due to a Butcher pick at 3, but other than that the spread is pretty low here. Opinion amongst PD fans seems to be the 5 is locked as described.
Picks 6 to 8: seem to be considered locked in terms of players but there is variety on who will go to which club. A few of PDs had Butcher sliding down to 11, but as you can see from the averages it’s pretty close amongst these 3 picks.
Tapscott @ 9: This is the Tapscott pick with Port apparently picking whoever was left over out of Rohan, Butcher and Lucas at 8 and then using 9 on Tapscott. It’s actually an interesting pick in terms of ramifications of Port don’t pick Tapscott at 9. Some PD’s have Tapscott sliding considerably in those cases with a 16 point spread between his Min and Max placement, this is the highest out of the top 14 players.
Talia @ 10: This is a funny one, because no PD used in the data gathering has Talia going at 10 ever. People realise the bombers don’t need a KPD perhaps. Does kinda spit in the face of the best available mantra that is bandied around. Talia has the lowest slide rating out of any pick outside the top 5. PD’s are pretty confident he will go between 8 and 14.
Picks 11 - 13: Most people have Stevens going to the bombers @ 10. Jetta is an interesting one at 12. The reason his average is so good is all the PD’s that have Eagles picking him at 7 bringing his average right down. He has a slide rating/spread of 15 i.e min 7 max 22.
Highest Slide Rating: Aaron Black @ 14, Panos @ 17 and Troy Taylor @ 18. These guys have a spread of 24 and if PDers are anything to go buy, then these will be ones to watch with interest on draft day. Andrew Moore @ 19 also has a high slide rating of 23. As does Vardy @ 22.
Towards the end of the 2nd round there is less value in the data as a greater spread of players is obviously used after pick 25.
Hopefully some people find this information interesting.
Galen
