Pick 14

[blue shark]

Are you the designated troll translator? Notwithstanding it was from a moron who continues to pretend he supports Freo and then bags us out away from this board, his post was also clueless.

By downgrading we would not only go in with more picks than we have spots available, so we get less for more but we'd also likely miss out on Hill if that is who we want. Nobody is rating Hill as a 2nd rounder. He has slid from clear top 10 (maybe even higher) last year to the teens this year. There are some f/s and academy players ahead of him meaning a pick #14 could easily become #16/#17 which is exactly where Twomey has him rated. If you really want someone you don't downgrade to the end of their expected range and cross your fingers they slide, you upgrade to where other clubs might pick him. SA clubs aren't sitting on pick #10ish going well Rankine or Rozee might slide to #10 so let's just sit on our hands - they've moved as far up the order as possible to make sure they have a shot.

FWIW I don't think we are wedded to Hill at all - there will be some other good quality at our 1st pick. Downgrading outside the 1st round in this draft would be stupid even if we didn't have limited picks - hence why WC couldn't satisfy Geelong for Kelly because nobody wants to give up 1st rounders this year (unless they have academy players in the 1st round).

WC downgraded in 2013 to take Sheed and get Yeo. Pretty sure many of their posters have given both a bake in the short
term.

 

[Superkoops]

Are you the designated troll translator? Notwithstanding it was from a moron who continues to pretend he supports Freo and then bags us out away from this board, his post was also clueless.

By downgrading we would not only go in with more picks than we have spots available, so we get less for more but we'd also likely miss out on Hill if that is who we want. Nobody is rating Hill as a 2nd rounder. He has slid from clear top 10 (maybe even higher) last year to the teens this year. There are some f/s and academy players ahead of him meaning a pick #14 could easily become #16/#17 which is exactly where Twomey has him rated. If you really want someone you don't downgrade to the end of their expected range and cross your fingers they slide, you upgrade to where other clubs might pick him. SA clubs aren't sitting on pick #10ish going well Rankine or Rozee might slide to #10 so let's just sit on our hands - they've moved as far up the order as possible to make sure they have a shot.

FWIW I don't think we are wedded to Hill at all - there will be some other good quality at our 1st pick. Downgrading outside the 1st round in this draft would be stupid even if we didn't have limited picks - hence why WC couldn't satisfy Geelong for Kelly because nobody wants to give up 1st rounders this year (unless they have academy players in the 1st round).

Agreed

The ND is a lottery as it is. We have a better chance of coming good with a pick 14-16 than multiple picks around 25-35.

If Rosich and Bell are biting back their fingernails unsure what to do with the final delistings, we could try to trade up our pick 31.

Melbourne (academy), Western Bulldogs (F/S) and WCE (academy) have multiple 2nd round picks; Melbourne (23, 28), WB (27, 32), WCE (20, 22).

We could try and trade forward with our 31 and 43 (and perhaps bring forward 65) so that we only run with 3 selections. We would targeting 22, 27 and 28. Benefit for the other clubs being more points.

I personally think we’d be getting too tricky and better to just delist two players and go with 4 ND selections. We can always redraft a couple of our delisted players in the Rookie draft.

 

[sherrif]

If I were freo and Hill were my number one target I'd be looking to (live trade) downgrade pick 14 for a 20ish and a late 20/early 30 pick. I doubt Hill gets taken before then unless we take him with 20 or 22. 14 feels like overs for him imo and if you pull it off and he is still there, you'd get another semi decent pick to use too.

Well pick 14 is actually certain to be at least pick 16 in terms of the player selected when you look at the draft ratings with bids for Thomas and Blakely before pick 14. Also looking at the draft previews Hill seems now to be listed as 15 - 19th player taken, so if we want Hill it would be be pretty counterproductive to trade for a later pick when all that would achieve would be to risk not getting him at all. On top of that there could a player we rate higher than Hill slide and we then have the option of picking him instead of Hill. Waytogo was right, your suggestion is pretty moronic to say the least.

 

[Mr Fonebone]

I reckon we'll take Liam Stocker with our first pick. Exactly what we need.

 

[Bastyy]

Starting to like the idea of Curtis Taylor, think he fills a nice need for us and I think on paper a forward line of

HF: C.Taylor/J.Hogan/D.Mundy
FF: M.Walters/R.Lobb/S.Switkowski

looks pretty nice.

 

[Scham]

Starting to like the idea of Curtis Taylor, think he fills a nice need for us and I think on paper a forward line of

HF: C.Taylor/J.Hogan/D.Mundy
FF: M.Walters/R.Lobb/S.Switkowski

looks pretty nice.

I too hope we go for a forward or forward/mid but I think there should be better options available than Taylor, i.e. Hill, Sturt and Caldwell.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Starting to like the idea of Curtis Taylor, think he fills a nice need for us and I think on paper a forward line of

HF: C.Taylor/J.Hogan/D.Mundy
FF: M.Walters/R.Lobb/S.Switkowski

looks pretty nice.

Are you Drunk or on Drugs

Rozee Yes

Sturt Yes

Curtis Taylor ..... No

 

[Dockernut]

Any of you boffins know whether we can bid on Jarrod Cameron with our first pick? Looks a high quality small forward.

 

[Taylor]

Any of you boffins know whether we can bid on Jarrod Cameron with our first pick? Looks a high quality small forward.

We can bid on it with our first, we shouldn't but we can.

 

[Dockernut]

We can bid on it with our first, we shouldn't but we can.

Do the Weagles have to/have the ability to match?

 

[Taylor]

Do the Weagles have to/have the ability to match?

They do not have to match. They absolutely have the ability to match it with pick #20.

I wouldn't expect them to match a bid before their first two picks on a small forward who showed glimpses but drifts in and out of games.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Any of you boffins know whether we can bid on Jarrod Cameron with our first pick? Looks a high quality small forward.

Compare the Pair.. iHill or Jarrod Cameron ( re think Garlett)

Both with talent, one with baggage...

Gee I wish people posting random stuff did more research!

 

[Dockernut]

His video on the AFL site looks great. Strong overhead for his size and kicks a long goal.

Also, would be good to burn the Weags.

 

[Dockernut]

Compare the Pair.. iHill or Jarrod Cameron ( re think Garlett)

Both with talent, one with baggage...

Gee I wish people posting random stuff did more research!

Please enlighten me oh Ye of internet research saltiness.

 

[manpurple]

Some people way smarter than myself ran the numbers on the NFL and down trading vs up trading. In their opinion those who surrender early pick come out on top more often than not.

That being said we have done that already and for my money we are well on top no matter who we draft.

I would not be keen on trading any further. I also believe the club, perhaps naively, that we want one pick per round and so we won’t trade.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FUS_RO_DAH]

I want Ian Hill at pick 14.

... For no reason other than making it a possibility that on Brownlow night we'll hear Gil call out;

1 vote, Fremantle, Hill
2 votes, Fremantle, Hill
3 votes, Fremantle, Hill

 

[eastfreo75]

I want Ian Hill at pick 14.

... For no reason other than making it a possibility that on Brownlow night we'll hear Gil call out;

1 vote, Fremantle, Hill
2 votes, Fremantle, Hill
3 votes, Fremantle, Hill

 

[eastfreo75]

Some people way smarter than myself ran the numbers on the NFL and down trading vs up trading. In their opinion those who surrender early pick come out on top more often than not.

That being said we have done that already and for my money we are well on top no matter who we draft.

I would not be keen on trading any further. I also believe the club, perhaps naively, that we want one pick per round and so we won’t trade.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

NFL is a total different animal to the AFL.

Trading down first round picks for multiple second rounds is better statistically.

AFL is the opposite.

 

[Paracleet]

NFL is a total different animal to the AFL.

Trading down first round picks for multiple second rounds is better statistically.

AFL is the opposite.

I would question that there is evidence for the latter. There certainly is for the former. The question is whether that evidence is transferable to the AFL or not and I'd say at this point we have no real way of knowing.

However I'd speculate it probably is. If you think of points as probabilities rather than currency then it makes sense that (over time rather than for individual transactions) if you make trades that increase, in the form of point surpluses on trades, your total probability of drafting AFL standard players you'd be better off. Not everytime, just on average!

 

[eastfreo75]

I would question that there is evidence for the latter. There certainly is for the former. The question is whether that evidence is transferable to the AFL or not and I'd say at this point we have no real way of knowing.

However I'd speculate it probably is. If you think of points as probabilities rather than currency then it makes sense that (over time rather than for individual transactions) if you make trades that increase, in the form of point surpluses on trades, your total probability of drafting AFL standard players you'd be better off. Not everytime, just on average!

Go to https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

Have a read and come back have a conversation about it.

My view is that the AFL draft is more NBA draft than NFL draft.

 

[Tommo]

Go to https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

Have a read and come back have a conversation about it.

My view is that the AFL draft is more NBA draft than NFL draft.

I don’t necessarily discount the info on that site, but it is leaning heavily on games played, which while useful doesn’t necessarily indicate value.
I mean is there anything in the thought that clubs gift games to some high picks hoping they get better, thus skewing the average?

 

[Taylor]

I don’t necessarily discount the info on that site, but it is leaning heavily on games played, which while useful doesn’t necessarily indicate value.
I mean is there anything in the thought that clubs gift games to some high picks hoping they get better, thus skewing the average?

There is also a tendency for clubs with lots of draftees to play them while the team is not going to well but you're absolutely right that clubs will give far more time to players they have invested more into.

I think the US sports have much greater depth of talent, more teams yes but a greater talent all the same.

Our first round could look something like this in any given year:
#1 - Fast, skillful, 185cm, footy smart, hard running ball magnet
#2 - Fast, contested marking, 198cm, smart, agile, hard running tall
#3 to #10 - a version of the above two with one of the traits missing
#11 to #20 - a version of the first two with two of the traits missing
#21 to #60 - a version of the first two with three of the traits missing

If we had those first two filling the entirety of the first round and a half then it would be a different story.

 

[WilloTree]

So, we need someone with
-excellent skills
-super quick
-can play forward and go through the midfield
-preferably local


umm.. could someone remind me why we don't want Hill again?

 

[mike91]

Anyone found any highlights videos of Stocker and Caldwell?

 

[go_the_dockers]

So, we need someone with
-excellent skills
-super quick
-can play forward and go through the midfield
-preferably local


umm.. could someone remind me why we don't want Hill again?

Must be above 180 cms.